Anticipation Builds for Friday's Crucial Inflation Report: What Analysts Are Predicting

Everyone is Waiting for Friday’s Big Inflation Report: Here’s What to Expect

Thursday, October 23, 2025 – Wall Street eyes Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This event marks the key data of the month. The government shutdown now limits usual data. This report now holds more sway on markets and policy talks. Many experts call it “the report to end all reports.”

Key Context: Why This CPI Report Matters More Than Usual

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the report on Friday, October 24. The report was set for October 15 but got pushed back by the shutdown. Its release comes before the Federal Reserve meets for policy talks, which wrap on Wednesday, October 29. Troy Ludtka, a senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said, “We have little fresh government data, so all eyes are on this report.” With few new numbers available, investors, analysts, and policy makers want to see clear signs of inflation trends.

What the Forecast Looks Like

Wall Street believes that September’s CPI will follow last month’s path and show steady inflation:

Monthly all-items CPI: May rise by 0.4%, as it did in August.
Year-over-year inflation rate: May hit 3.1%, up 0.2 points from August.
Core CPI (without food and energy): May go up by 0.3% for the month and hold at 3.1% for the year, as in August.
The annual core number would be the highest since January 2025. Though many expect the same trends, even small shifts could make markets jump, as the lack of data makes each number count.

Special Focus: Trade Tariffs and Price Effects

Analysts watch the effects of trade tensions linked with President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Goldman Sachs experts note:

Auto prices may hold steady.
Car insurance may see a rise.
Airfares could drop.
Prices for phones, home goods, and recreational items might face some upward pull.
In all, tariffs may add about 0.07 points to core inflation.

Data Reliability Concerns Amid the Shutdown

The shutdown casts doubt on the accuracy of economic data. Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, warned, “The market misses key data now, so there is added uncertainty.”

Even with these doubts, investors show strength. Stock averages near record highs persist despite daily moves.

Broader Market and Economic Implications

Geopolitical risk and changes in tariff policy cause worry about inflation and economic growth. Earlier numbers showed a strong U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Fed near a 4% GDP growth estimate for the third quarter.

The CPI numbers will shape what the Federal Reserve decides at its meeting, where many foresee a quarter-point rate cut. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said, “A big surprise on the high side would make the market rethink a rate cut.”

Market Reactions: Volatility Ahead?

Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, warned that higher numbers could boost market swings. Still, she sees a chance to buy as the economy stays strong, the Fed may cut rates, EPS grows in double digits, and the fourth quarter tends to be strong.

Conclusion

In short, Friday’s CPI report now stands as the month’s top economic event. It may shape markets, policy talks, and investor views. While numbers are expected to show steady inflation, the lack of data from the shutdown and ongoing global risks bring extra focus on every figure.

Investors and analysts watching inflation should note the report on October 24 and watch the market moves that may follow.

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