Anticipating the ECB Meeting: Key Insights and Expectations for Interest Rates
What Should We Expect from This Week’s ECB Meeting?
By Dennis Shen, Chair of the Macroeconomic Council at Scope Group
Published: October 29, 2025, 11:50 GMT+00:00
Financial markets and economic watchers wait for the ECB meeting. Experts at Scope Ratings give a clear view of what the bank in Frankfurt may do. Dennis Shen of Scope Group says the ECB will keep its current policy. The bank will hold rates on Thursday without change.
Economic Resilience and Growth Outlook
The eurozone economy stays strong during uncertain times. Scope Ratings sees growth estimates rise a little in the December update. Steady activity and mild inflation back this view. The bank sees the scene as balanced, though it watches the signs with care.
Inflation and Rate Policy Considerations
Core inflation in the euro area stays a bit above the target. Data from Eurostat and comments by Scope Ratings show this trend. In September, prices went up slightly, and wages grew a little in the second quarter. The short-term risk of lower inflation exists, but long-term plans hint at higher prices.
Many ECB members find the current rate fit for now. They choose to hold rates rather than change them. The push to lower rates loses force because inflation stays steady and wage gains are slow.
No Further Rate Cuts Expected in 2025
Scope Ratings sees no more rate cuts before 2025 ends. Still, the bank may review its choice as the economy and markets change. Key risks lie in how inflation moves, trade issues, growth figures, and shifts in the euro exchange rate.
Exchange Rate Sensitivities and Market Risks
Watch the euro against the US dollar. If it climbs above 1.20 USD, ECB leaders may worry about higher prices and export strength. If long-term price plans drop sharply, the bank might ease policy further.
Scope points out that a drop in high market values could press the bank to act in support of economic steadiness.
External Influences: The Role of US Monetary Policy
US monetary moves affect ECB choices. Should US rates fall further due to market and political forces, European policymakers may ease policy too. Global market ties mean banks pay close attention to one another.
Conclusion
To sum up, the ECB is set to keep rates as they are. The overall view is one of mild growth and steady prices. Future steps depend on new economic facts and market shifts. For now, the plan is to stay steady for the rest of 2025. For a detailed calendar of economic events and more news on world markets, please consult FXEmpire’s economic calendar.
About the Author:
Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macroeconomic Council and Lead Global Economist at Scope Ratings, based in Berlin, Germany. The Council links credit views for governmental, public, financial, corporate, structured, and project finance issuers.
Disclaimer:
This article serves educational and research purposes only. It is not investment advice. Readers should do their own checks and speak with trusted financial advisors before decisions. FXEmpire and its writers are not responsible for any losses from using this information.
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