Fed in the Fog: Inflation Data Drought Impacts Rate Decisions Amid Government Shutdown

Fed Lacks Key Inflation Data Ahead of December Rate Decision as BLS Cancels October CPI Release

Washington, D.C., November 21, 2025 — The U.S. Federal Reserve finds itself without needed inflation data as it nears its December 10 interest rate decision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, leaving the Fed with a gap in its price measure.

The October CPI report was set for release on November 7. A government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting key survey data. This loss means the Fed does not have a strong measure of inflation while it sets monetary policy.

Why Was the October CPI Canceled?

The BLS explained on its website that the shutdown made data collection in person and via phone impossible for October. The agency relies on these methods to track price changes. Some information comes from online sources and household surveys, but without close, in-person data the report would be incomplete. This is why the BLS chose to cancel the report instead of providing a partial one.

Impact On Upcoming CPI and Inflation Measures

Missing October data affects the November CPI report. The report is now delayed until December 18—one week after the Fed meets on December 10. This delay makes it harder for the Fed to see the latest price trends when it makes a decision.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also has a change. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s favored gauge—will not be released on November 26. No new release date is given for this key measure.

Fed Officials Concerned About “Data Fog”

Fed policymakers share worry over the missing data. After a late October meeting, which led to a 0.25% rate cut, the minutes showed concern over making choices with incomplete data.

At that meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down. … There’s a chance that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving." Powell stressed that the data gap is temporary and promised that the Fed would study all available numbers.

Some Fed officials keep a hopeful view:

New York Fed President John Williams shared on Friday that the bank might still act, hinting that more rate cuts could come soon.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that even with the missing data, the bank has enough to guide its choices.

What This Means for Markets and Monetary Policy

Missing timely inflation data adds uncertainty as the Fed meets on December 10. The market usually looks to inflation data and Fed signals as a pair. Without fresh numbers, investors and decision makers may choose a slower pace.

The Fed now must balance worries over rising prices and steady growth with fewer numbers at hand. This gap raises the importance of upcoming data and new Fed updates.

For more detailed coverage and expert analysis on the Fed’s monetary policy and inflation trends, subscribe to CNBC PRO and join the Investing Club.

Summary of Key Points:

The BLS canceled the October CPI release due to the shutdown stopping key data collection.
November CPI data is now set for December 18, after the Fed’s December 10 rate decision.
The PCE price index release is delayed without a new date.
Fed leaders worry about a “data fog” that makes policy decisions harder.
Fed officials have mixed views on how much the missing data will affect their actions.
Market watchers wait for updated inflation numbers after the Fed meeting.

Full money-growing playbook here:
youtube.com/@the_money_grower