Navigating Economic Signals: A Deep Dive into U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Projections, and Import Prices
U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Outlook, and Import Costs Present Mixed Signals for Traders
By James Hyerczyk, Updated August 15, 2025
U.S. economic data show clear signals for traders. Retail sales grow, factories work more, and import prices move up. The numbers and policy hints sit close together. This mix makes traders watch the Fed’s next steps.
Retail Sales Show Steady Consumer Demand, Yet Slow Growth
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau point to a 0.5% rise in retail and food services sales in July, reaching $726.3 billion. A revised gain of 0.9% in June comes just before. On a yearly view, sales climbed 3.9%. This move shows that buyers still spend money.
Nonstore sellers such as online shops grew by 8.0% compared to last year. Food services and places that serve drinks grew by 5.6% over the same time. Core retail trade—which leaves out items like cars and gas stations—rose 0.7% on a month-by-month basis.
These figures point to strong buyer use. The slow pace in gains may cool thoughts on a quick rate rise from the Fed.
Manufacturing Confidence Rises in New York
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey comes back with good news. Its headline index jumped 22 points to 5.5 in July. Signs like new orders and shipments also grew, which shows more work in factories.
Inventories grew a lot, and delivery times got longer. These clues show work on fixing supply issues. The job index ticked up to 9.2, marking two months in a row of job gains. This boost feeds hope for a fuller job market.
Input costs climbed to an index of 56.0 while sales prices held at 25.7. The overall business index jumped to 24.1. This jump shows more cheer among local makers.
Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs
Import prices moved up 0.4% in July. These numbers reverse the fall seen in the two previous months. A main pulse of this rise comes from a 2.7% jump in fuel costs—petroleum climbed 2.4%, while natural gas went up 4.7%.
Nonfuel prices moved up 0.3%, so costs for industrial items, consumer goods, and capital equipment edged up. On a yearly view, import prices dropped 0.2%, mostly due to a large 12.1% fall in fuel prices last year.
Export prices in July rose slowly by 0.1%. Cars and capital goods helped push up these prices, while prices for farm items stayed near the same level. Over the year, export prices grew 2.2%, even as prices in markets like Japan fell and costs in Mexico held still.
Market View: Cautious Hope With Fed Uncertainty
Strong retail sales, improved factory numbers, and higher import prices show a balanced U.S. economy. Rising fuel costs and supply limits may push up more expenses. These extra costs might press company profit margins.
For traders, the data point to a watchful rise in the short term. Steady spending and a lift in factory signals add to this idea. Still, traders keep a sharp look at the Fed’s move on inflation and rates. Fed policy soon will sway asset costs.
Related Economic Developments
Other news point to a drop in China’s retail sales and a pause in industrial output. U.S. producer prices jumped, which may slow any thoughts of a rate drop. Energy rates keep shifting, and investors keep a close watch on them.
James Hyerczyk is a veteran U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over four decades of experience in market analysis and trading. He specializes in chart patterns and price movements and is the author of two books on technical analysis.
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