Assessing China's Golden Week: Will Tourism and Retail Drive GDP Growth?

China Golden Week: Can Tourism and Retail Lift GDP Prospects?

By Bob Mason | Published October 2, 2025, 03:27 GMT

China starts its annual Golden Week holiday. Investors and economists now watch the new data. They want to see if Beijing can hit a 5% GDP rise in 2025. Golden Week shows consumer trust and buying strength in shops, travel, and rides. Each word connects closely, and this makes the meaning clear.

Golden Week’s Economic Role

Golden Week is a time to learn about China’s economy. The government puts out data on how people spend, travel, and move. This short period shows what happens as the year nears its end.

In 2024, spending during Golden Week helped grow GDP by 5%. Shops saw a 4.8% jump in sales in October 2024 versus 3.2% in September. Trips inside China grew by 5.9%, and travel spending went up by 6.3% over the same period last year. More people also left the country, a jump of 40%. This rise came as visa rules returned to normal and more flights ran after COVID-19 rules eased.

What to Watch: Key Points During Golden Week 2025

This Golden Week, experts will check several points that may shape views on the economy:

Consumer Spending: Data from stores in dining, fun, and shopping.
Payment Activity: Totals run via digital payment systems.
Tourism Numbers: Facts on local journeys and overall travel.
Transportation: How many people ride to move around.

These points tie words together. They show trust and need, which matter for steady growth.

Challenges for Spending and Growth

Even with the cheer of Golden Week, China’s economy faces hard times. US tariffs on Chinese goods and new shipping steps have cut demand from abroad. This has sparked price cuts and lower margins. Companies now cut jobs to keep profits.

Job data adds to these signs. The overall jobless rate in China moved from 5.2% in July to 5.3% in August 2025. More worrisome is youth joblessness, which grew to 18.9% in August. This is up from 17.8% in July and 14.5% in June.

Problems in the housing market also make people worried. Sales in shops slowed in 2025. In August, sales rose by 3.4% year-on-year. This is lower than 3.7% in July and 4.8% in June.

If spending falls further this Golden Week, doubt may grow about Beijing’s plan for 5% GDP growth this year.

Possible Policy Moves and Stimulus Hopes

China’s banks, like Goldman Sachs, expect the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut interest rates. This move may boost work and spending. Some analysts note that Beijing may wait to change rules unless the growth rate slips.

Recent lawmakers repeated their goal to act fast on economic steps when risks come up. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) says the government will speed up new smart devices and set up fresh subsidies for buyers. It will also sharpen tools for watching, predicting, and warning on the economy.

Equity Markets: Hope Despite Uncertainty

Mainland stock markets have shown strength. They rose over the past three quarters, though the pace slowed in the third quarter of 2025. Progress in fields like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, along with hope for new rules, kept investor views high.

The CSI 300 index climbed nearly 18% this year. It reached a three-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index also went up by about 15.8%, its best mark in ten years. Yet, these numbers are still below past peaks. They might go higher if Golden Week data look good and if new policy steps come.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index lifted 36% this year. The Hang Seng Tech Index grew by 48.8% during the same period.

Looking Ahead: Trade and Market Views

After Golden Week, events in US-China trade will affect views at home and abroad. A drop in trade tension or a new trade deal may boost demand for Chinese goods and stocks. On the other hand, new trade issues may cut confidence and slow growth.

Leading economist Hao Hong says there is no simple cure for low trust at home except a rise in the stock market. His words show a tight link between market moves and consumer spending, especially when issues like housing troubles and rising jobless rates are in the mix.

Conclusion

The data from China’s Golden Week will help show the country’s growth path in 2025. Past Golden Weeks have pushed GDP up, but this year, customers face hard times from both outside and in. Policy makers stand ready to act if signs turn bad, and their moves will depend on the new numbers.

For both investors and onlookers, this Golden Week will show China’s strength and hint at Beijing’s next steps as the year nears its end.

About the Author:
Bob Mason brings more than 28 years of work in financial markets. He worked with global rating groups and large banks. He now writes on currencies, goods, different asset classes, and world stocks, with a close look at European and Asian scenes.

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