WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Outlook for 2025 Amid Looming Slowdown in 2026

WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast for 2025 but Predicts Slowdown in 2026

The World Trade Organization (WTO) changed its view on world trade. It now sees trade growing by 2.4% in 2025. This is higher than the 0.9% forecast earlier. Yet the WTO warns that trade will pick up very slowly in 2026. ### Key Highlights from the WTO Report

  • In 2025, trade will grow by 2.4%.
  • In 2026, trade will grow by only 0.5%. The previous plan was 1.8%.
  • A cooling global economy and rising tariffs bring the slower pace.

Contributing Factors to Trade Growth in 2025

  • Many firms sped up imports to beat expected tariff hikes. This move raised U.S. trade.
  • Good economic trends, steady fiscal moves, and firm labor markets helped raise incomes and spending.
  • Growth in new markets added to trade.
  • Increasing demand for AI items provided a boost. Nearly half the growth came from items like chips, servers, and telecom devices that grew 20% over the year.

The Rising Influence of AI on Global Trade

  • Asia led in AI trade, making up almost two-thirds of the increase in early 2025.
  • The U.S. produced about 20% of the AI trade growth.
  • Trade now runs from raw materials, such as silicon and specialty gases, to parts for cloud tools and AI work.

Risks to Global Trade Outlook

  • New tariff measures in more countries may slow trade.
  • The global economy shows signs of softening. Business and consumer hope drop, and gains in jobs and income slow down in rich markets.
  • Trade in services will also slow. In 2024, services grew by 6.8%. They will grow by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Even though tariffs do not hit services directly, services feel the change from goods trade.

WTO Director-General’s Remarks

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of the WTO made clear how careful moves, visa tariff responses, and growth from AI and new markets helped ease problems in 2025. She said,
"Trade stability in 2025 comes in large part from the rules that bind us all. We must not be lazy."

She called on nations to rethink and strengthen world trade rules so more people can share in better times even as challenges come.

The WTO report shows that world trade is complex. AI creates new ways for growth, but trade disputes and a softer economy will test progress. All eyes will be on these changes in the years ahead.

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Navigating Economic Currents: China’s Golden Week Success Meets US Tariff Challenges Ahead of APEC Summit

China’s Golden Week Momentum Faces US Tariff Tensions Ahead of APEC Summit

By Bob Mason | Published October 7, 2025, 02:53 GMT

China’s Golden Week holiday fuels more domestic trips and higher spending. This week raises hope for a year-end economic boost. Trade issues with the US add stress. The APEC summit nears. Tariff tensions risk dimming this bright pulse.

Record-Breaking Golden Week Travel Signals Economic Uptick

China’s eight-day Golden Week now acts as a sign of home demand. On October 1, rail systems moved over 23 million travelers. This day broke past records. The strong travel count points to a rise in buyer activity that may help reach the 5% GDP growth goal for 2025. Shops and travel spots see spending that shows buyers feel more secure. These gains come even as warnings about soft global demand and lower exports due to US tariffs persist.

Economic Pressures from US Tariffs and Rising Unemployment

Even with the holiday boost, hard issues show up in economic life. US tariffs press China’s factories and export plans. Many firms cut prices to stay in the race. These slim profits lead companies to reduce costs by letting go of staff. New numbers mark a rise in China’s job stress. The national rate grew from 5.2% in July to 5.3% in August. Youth job loss climbed to 18.9% from lower weeks in previous months. High job loss among young workers questions if the rise in spending will last. Strong demand from abroad would help firm up the recovery.

Key Role of the Upcoming APEC Summit

Domestic spending still shows weak points. Foreign trade steps now matter a great deal. The APEC Summit will run from October 31 to November 1. Leaders Trump and Xi now take center stage. Markets watch the talks for signs of progress on cutting US tariffs. Beijing has used retaliatory tactics on key US exports, such as farm products. For example, China now buys beef and soybeans from countries like Australia and Argentina. These shifts stir sharp claims from Trump’s team.

Shaun Rein, founder of The China Market Research Group, said:
"China is no longer buying American beef; they are buying Australian beef. China is no longer buying American soybeans; they are buying Argentinian soybeans."
He also noted that China stopped US chip imports as it speeds home chip production.

President Trump spoke on the soybean matter. He promised help for US farmers affected by China’s buying choices, and he did not call out extra tariffs on Chinese farm goods. This stands apart from the 50% tariff on India for Russian oil buys, while China stays the largest buyer of Russian oil. Quiet talks seem to move behind the scenes ahead of the summit.

Market Implications and Economic Outlook

Trade gaps now add a risk for investors. Before the holiday, China’s stock scene showed strength. The CSI 300 climbed 3.2% in September, and the Shanghai Composite reached a ten-year high. Yet the return of trade fights stays a big worry.

US job data now weighs on thoughts for policy steps. Signs of slow growth with higher prices in the US could add more stress to talks. Meanwhile, Beijing must work hard to boost the economy without fresh support measures.

Some expect that President Xi may use likely US investment hints to aid trade talks. This step could add jobs on US soil and sweeten a deal. What President Trump might ask for in return still stays unclear.

What to Watch Next

As Golden Week ends, market watchers view fresh Chinese numbers. They look at store sales and job data to see if the spending rise will hold. Trade moves and soft signals before the APEC Summit now decide if the new hope will lead to lasting gains or if trade stress will come back.

In sum, even as Golden Week ignites a bright push for the economy, big challenges still stand. The next US-China trade steps will shape the view for both nations and the wider global market.

For ongoing coverage of China’s economy, US-China trade relations, and APEC Summit developments, stay tuned to FXEmpire.

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Military Pay Deadline Could Push Trump and Congress Towards Shutdown Resolution

Military Pay Date Puts Pressure on Trump and Congress Amid Government Shutdown

Washington, D.C., October 6, 2025 – The government shutdown drags on with no fix in view. The military pay date on October 15 now weighs heavy. Nearly 1.3 million active military members stand at its center. Missed pay risks sparking public anger and pushes lawmakers toward a deal.

Military Pay Deadline as a Key “Forcing Event”

Goldman Sachs economists share a note with their clients. They point out that the pay day on Oct. 15 may push both sides toward a compromise. Their note links this deadline with a chance to end the shutdown by mid-October. Betting sites like Polymarket show a 71% chance that the impasse lasts past Oct. 14. If the pay date passes without funds, many will feel upset. Lawmakers may then back a short-term fix called a continuing resolution. This plan would keep the government running while talks go on.

Wide Impact of the Shutdown

The shutdown hits more than just military pay. It stops important data that officials need. It may also slow airport security when TSA workers miss shifts. Policy expert Ed Mills at Raymond James says late military pay, disrupted TSA work, or postponed mortgage help may push the sides to change course. He sees a brief continuing resolution as most likely but admits a longer shutdown is still a risk.

Other Deadlines to Watch

Officials and experts note more dates that may add pressure:

  • October 13: Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program benefits may end.
  • November 1: Obamacare health insurance open enrollment begins.
  • November 21: Congress starts its Thanksgiving recess during busy travel times.

Pimco analysts remind us that starting a shutdown is much easier than ending one. This shutdown, the first full one since 2013, now proves hard to resolve.

Political Standoff and Few Signs of Change

Senate votes are scheduled, yet experts expect little progress soon. President Trump warns that ongoing funding problems could turn temporary layoffs into lasting job cuts. Both parties hold firm, and key decisions stall. Goldman Sachs economists see military pay worries as a push toward a deal. Still, other outcomes remain on the table:

  • The Defense Department might pay troops with its own plans even if funds are low.
  • Congress could pass money solely to cover military pay while leaving the shutdown unresolved.

The October 15 pay date now stands as a key moment that may shift the balance toward ending the funding deadlock.

Summary: The shutdown faces a defining moment with the October 15 military pay date. Missing these payments may stir enough public and political force for Trump and Congress to set a budget deal or pass a short-term fix. With steady positions and few signs of quick change, experts warn that the shutdown might last longer, affecting more services and the public overall.

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Mongolia’s Leap into the Future: The Chinggis Khaan Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Data Center Revolution

Mongolia Joins the Global Data Center Boom with Chinggis Khaan Sovereign Wealth Fund

Mongolia is set to join a fast-growing data center market. The country has rich natural resources and a kind climate that suit new digital projects. This step comes from a plan that uses the Chinggis Khaan Sovereign Wealth Fund. The fund uses money from Mongolia’s mineral wealth to boost social well-being, build roads, and work on green energy projects.

A New Era Powered by Data and Renewables

The law started the fund in April 2024. It now holds about $1.4 billion. The fund works to change Mongolia’s economy by investing in the rising need for data centers for cloud computing and AI. Global AI tasks grow, and data centers that use less power are needed.

Temuulen Bayaraa, head of the fund, spoke at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. She said, "We have vast land and a good climate for data centers." The fund plans special economic zones like Hunnu City. Hunnu City will be a smart urban area built for data center work and related tasks.

Aligning Investments with Green Energy Initiatives

The fund also directs money to build large renewable energy grids. This plan helps increase the flow of green energy outside Mongolia. The country lies between Russia and China and builds strong ties with both. These links help in supplying green power to nearby markets.

Mongolia now plans to grow green power in its electricity mix to 30% by 2030. This is a jump from 18.3% in 2023. The fund puts support into wind and solar projects that power data centers and meet world plans for cleaner energy.

Responding to Global Trends and Domestic Needs

This fund follows a seen trend in Asia. Countries like Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia invest more in data centers as AI and cloud projects grow. Goldman Sachs sees that energy use by data centers will go up by 50% by 2027 and possibly by 165% by 2030. Mongolia aims to cut risk from mineral price swings. The country’s minerals are a key funding source. Erdenes Mongol, a state-owned company with stakes in mining, manages the fund to share mining money in a fair way.

Rebuilding Trust and Driving Inclusive Growth

Many Mongolians have felt that mineral wealth was not shared well. In 2025, widespread protests led to the exit of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai. Bayaraa said the fund must rebuild trust by using mineral money for the people.

She stated, "The fund builds trust by managing and sharing wealth in a separate way." It will pay for schools, health care, housing, and job training. This plan should help grow a strong middle class and support fair progress.

Citizens can watch the fund’s money go through an easy-to-use app. This step helps everyone see where funds go.

Attracting Global Expertise with a Local Impact

The fund also plans to hire Mongolian experts who have worked abroad in banking, investing, and wealth management. These skilled people will help run the country’s funds. Bayaraa noted, "Mongolia has long drawn foreign money into the country. Now, for the first time, we invest to join a global scene."

As Mongolia moves into the data center space backed by green energy and a strong fund, the nation looks to build a diverse, clear, and fair economic future.

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The Missing Jobs Report: Insights on the Economy Amid Government Shutdown

Government Shutdown Halts Key Jobs Report: What September’s Labor Market Would Have Revealed

On Friday, October 2, 2025, the expected Bureau of Labor Statistics report did not come out. The government shutdown in Washington, D.C. stopped the report. Investors, policymakers, and economists did not get new data on the U.S. labor market. This gap made many ask about how September’s employment behaved. Other data and market clues show a labor market that is steady yet mixed as it adjusts after the pandemic.

What the Missing Jobs Report Would Have Said

Before the shutdown, Dow Jones consensus forecasts set an increase of roughly 51,000 jobs. They also set the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%. These numbers spoke of modest labor market growth. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said the labor market stayed “pretty stable” during a CNBC talk after the shutdown. To fill the gap, the Chicago Fed built a simple dashboard. It tracks hiring and layoff rates and gives a new view of employment trends after heavy criticism of the old data.

Indicators Point to An Anemic but Steady Labor Market

Even without the government number, private and state data give clues:

  • Job postings on sites like Indeed dropped by about 8.9% compared to last year. This drop shows softer worker demand.
  • ADP’s private payroll report showed 32,000 fewer jobs in September and 3,000 fewer in August. This drop marks a slower pace in hiring.
  • State data on initial jobless claims suggest about 224,000 claims nationwide. The number is a bit high, but it stays close to long-term trends.

Employers seem to be careful with layoffs. They recall the hard work needed to rehire during the COVID-19 times. The labor market looks like this:

  • Job growth stayed small,
  • Fewer positions were open,
  • New workers, especially young ones and fresh graduates, search longer for jobs.

Uneven Recovery Across Sectors

Not every sector gained equally:

  • Healthcare led most job growth and job postings. The need for nurses and caregivers stayed high.
  • In contrast, work in software development did not grow as much, and the job view splits.
  • Other areas like business services and leisure show mixed signs.

Indeed’s senior economist Cory Stahle said that the split shows work chances focus on certain fields.

Broader Economic Signals and Small Business Outlook

Other signs come from consumer spending. For example:

  • Bank of America noted a 2.2% increase in credit and debit card use in late September. This uptick hints at strong consumer buying, even as jobs grow slowly.
  • Fiserv’s small business index recorded a 2.3% rise in sales and transactions for the year, a small but steady gain.

At the same time, small businesses feel mixed moods. The National Federation of Independent Business chief economist Bill Dunkelberg saw a big gap between available jobs and filled positions. Many job spots stayed open despite plans to hire more.

The Bottom Line

The shutdown stopped the release of the key report. Yet, many data points show that the U.S. job scene in September 2025 appears as follows:

  • It stays steady but moves slowly.
  • Some sectors, like healthcare, do well while others lag.
  • New workers face challenges in getting started.
  • Employers work with caution in hiring new staff.

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Navigating Adversity: The Struggles of Recent College Grads in a Tough Job Market

The Job Market Slowdown Is Hitting Recent College Graduates Hard

Today young college graduates face a slow job market. A degree does not open a clear path to work. The U.S. market now shows real strains that shape early careers.

A Tough Landscape for New Graduates

Christina Salvadore, 23, holds a degree from Georgetown University. She has done several internships. She planned to start a job in New York City in the fashion or beauty field. Yet, she now finds it hard to land a full-time job. She sent many applications and went to several network meetings since last spring.

"I spend my days on LinkedIn at my parents’ house," Christina said to a news channel. With few full-time roles, she picks part-time work to pay bills. This is not the bold start many had once seen.

Her story joins reports of more young graduates without work. New federal figures show that new college grads face high jobless numbers and problems getting white-collar work. This change also shifts how first-time job seekers find work.

Statistical Evidence of a Decline

Recent federal data now shows that the rate for "new entrants" in full-time work is at its top for nine years in 2025. The share of jobless new grads is at its highest in decades. A leading labor research group, Burning Glass Institute, now calls the U.S. a "no country for young grads." The team led by chief economist Gad Levanon released a report this summer. He points out that a bachelor’s degree no longer brings the white-collar career one expects. Levanon notes that, for the first time in modern times, a four-year degree does not keep its promise for many young people.

Young people with bachelor’s degrees have usually had lower jobless rates than others with only a high school diploma. Now, the difference is very small—its narrowest gap since the early 2000s.

The Emotional Toll and Social Media Reflections

The search for full-time work now affects the minds of new grads. Many feel stress and worry. On social media sites like TikTok, young adults share their job hunt stories. These posts speak about slow progress, unanswered applications, and other problems. Many note that entry jobs now ask for years of experience. Some also say that they have had to move back with their parents.

The feelings run deep. Many say they feel like they are “crashing out” as doubt fills their minds. Michael Hartman, a Boston College graduate with an economics degree, has looked for work for nearly a year without success. He even asked advice from a psychic, showing how lost some feel.

Economic Policymakers Take Notice

Top economic leaders now see this slow hiring landscape. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, has noted that young workers now face a tougher search for jobs. He points to a time when few people are fired and few are hired. Data from August shows that hiring has slowed and fewer people change jobs. A 25% jump in those unemployed for 27 weeks or more warns of a soft labor market. Rising college enrollments and steady demand for degree holders add to the gap between jobs and workers.

Emerging Challenges: AI and Automation

New computer technology now brings more change. The rise of artificial intelligence puts some entry-level roles at risk. A study from Stanford in August found that jobs for those aged 22-25 have fallen by 13% since 2022. Leaders at large firms like Walmart and Accenture now say that AI will alter work requirements very much. Many young workers now worry more about losing their jobs. Surveys show that 18- to 34-year-olds feel the risk of job loss is as high as it was in past downturns.

Varied Impact Across Sectors

All parts of work do not feel the same pain. Some parts still show open entry roles. For example:

  • Software development roles now run at about 66% of their level before the pandemic.
  • Nursing job listings have grown by 16%.

Yet, many fields now lose more entry roles than they add. In technology, the drop is strong—over 50% fewer entry hires at large firms since 2019. While some areas show hope, the close job market makes many worry.

The Changing Outlook for College Graduates

Soon-to-be graduates like Emma Zatkulak, a communications major at Boise State University, now start looking for work much sooner than planned. Emma works two jobs while studying. She attends interviews for sales and insurance roles—jobs she did not consider before this slow market.

"This has been very stressful," Emma says. "I have not felt calm in a few months."

For many young people, the promise of a degree as a sure path to steady work now seems dim. This shared struggle may change how they view higher education and career plans for many years.

Conclusion

The slow pace of hiring changes early career views for new college graduates across the United States. Some fields still show hope, while shifts in the market, new technology, and less available work force many young people today. Policymakers, educators, and industries all now study these trends. Young workers keep moving forward, tied closely to each new connection and effort.

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Political Polarisation and the Impending US Government Shutdown: A Deep Dive into Governance Challenges

US Government Shutdown Shows Deep Political Split, Raises Governance Fears

October 2, 2025, 19:40 GMT – By Eiko Sievert, FXEmpire

The shutdown of the US government shows a growing gap between Republicans and Democrats. Each point sticks close to policy issues like planned changes in healthcare. This pause in federal work links tight disagreement to wider splits in state rules. The situation makes people worry about the way power holds together.

Political Gridlock Points to Wider Governance Strains

US politics meet a hard block. Parties stand side by side yet hold words that remain apart. Scope Ratings keeps its view close. It places the US at AA with a negative edge. This view ties investor fears to the state’s money plans.

Key groups feel pressure from these moves. The Federal Reserve faces weight from political orders. The push to fire Governor Lisa Cook tests how far a president may reach into groups kept aside from party fights.

Some law experts and law firms, not in line with President Trump’s plans, now feel public heat. People ask if economic stats keep their steady mark after Erika McEntarfer, who once led the Bureau of Labor Statistics, lost her post. This act ties doubts to the daily flow of numbers.

Falling Public Trust and Shaken Norms

Scholars and media meet strong public scorn. This trend pulls trust from the base of US power. The military now shows up in large cities to keep order when state leaders say no. This close use of force in city streets may shake state control and add weight to the growing gap.

Fiscal Future and Debt Ceiling Talks

The political split makes plans for money even tougher. A recent $5 trillion raise of the debt cap gets named with a big bill. Yet another raise may come by 2028 in a time of hard money views.
Scope Ratings ties a view of overall government deficits to about 6% of GDP in the next five years. Debt may grow to near 127% of GDP. The words link technical default as far off, yet show rising risk when talks stall. The chance of a breakdown carries heavy negative marks.

The mid-term votes in 2026 hold old power ideas. If Republicans fall short in the House or Senate, finding fast deals on budget talks will grow even harder. This link makes state work face bigger challenges.

Looking Ahead: Governance Risks and Political Divides

This shutdown stands as a clear sign of new state work and a rising political rift. As the sides grow further apart, stops in policy talk and strain on state groups get nearer. The splits touch not only US scenes at home but also global money moves and world market calm.

Readers and watchers look close to new votes and talks. They wait to see if both sides can work side by side once more or if the links between splits and state strain keep their hold.

About the Author:
Eiko Sievert is an Executive Director in the Sovereign and Public Sector Ratings group at Scope Ratings, known for ratings and research on state borrowers.

For more news and clear forecasts, see FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and Market News sections.

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Labor Market Crisis: Hiring Hits Record Low as Economists Navigate Shutdown Data Blackout

Hiring Hits Lowest Level Since 2009 Amid Government Shutdown; Economists Turn to Alternative Data

October 2, 2025 — New reports show hiring at its lowest point since 2009. The government shutdown delays key work reports. That delay makes experts use other data to check job trends in the country.

Labor Market Trends Amid Data Gap

Two reports came out on Thursday. One report comes from the Chicago Federal Reserve. The other comes from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Both reports help us see work trends when the usual government reports are not available.

• The Chicago Fed’s dashboard shows that the jobless rate stayed near 4.34% in September. This rate is almost 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. • The same report notes that layoffs stayed near 2.1%. However, hiring dropped to 45.2% in September, down 0.4 percentage points from August. This drop shows fewer new jobs start.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Report: Fewer Hires, More Job Cuts

The firm also notes a 37% drop in announced layoffs in September. This figure marks a 26% decrease compared with one year earlier. Yet, the total planned furloughs are at their top since 2020. The first three quarters show 946,426 announced job cuts. That total is 24% higher than in all of 2024. In contrast, new hires in 2025 reached only 204,939. That figure marks a 58% drop from the same period a year ago. It is the lowest level seen since 2009. The 2009 period had many problems after a financial crisis.

Andy Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert at the firm, said many job cuts happened before. He noted that past times with many job cuts occurred during recessions or in 2005 and 2006 when automations took jobs in manufacturing and technology.

Effects of the Government Shutdown on Job Data

Under normal rules, the Labor Department would release weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the monthly nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The shutdown, now in its second day, stops these reports for now.

Experts and Federal Reserve leaders must use new data from groups like the Chicago Fed and private firms to see job trends. These new sources help fill the gap left by missing government reports.

Looking Ahead

The delay in the usual job statistics makes it hard to track the economy at a key time. As new data arrive from other groups, many will watch to see if the drop in hiring means long-term problems or a short pause.

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Assessing China’s Golden Week: Will Tourism and Retail Drive GDP Growth?

China Golden Week: Can Tourism and Retail Lift GDP Prospects?

By Bob Mason | Published October 2, 2025, 03:27 GMT

China starts its annual Golden Week holiday. Investors and economists now watch the new data. They want to see if Beijing can hit a 5% GDP rise in 2025. Golden Week shows consumer trust and buying strength in shops, travel, and rides. Each word connects closely, and this makes the meaning clear.

Golden Week’s Economic Role

Golden Week is a time to learn about China’s economy. The government puts out data on how people spend, travel, and move. This short period shows what happens as the year nears its end.

In 2024, spending during Golden Week helped grow GDP by 5%. Shops saw a 4.8% jump in sales in October 2024 versus 3.2% in September. Trips inside China grew by 5.9%, and travel spending went up by 6.3% over the same period last year. More people also left the country, a jump of 40%. This rise came as visa rules returned to normal and more flights ran after COVID-19 rules eased.

What to Watch: Key Points During Golden Week 2025

This Golden Week, experts will check several points that may shape views on the economy:

  • Consumer Spending: Data from stores in dining, fun, and shopping.
  • Payment Activity: Totals run via digital payment systems.
  • Tourism Numbers: Facts on local journeys and overall travel.
  • Transportation: How many people ride to move around.

These points tie words together. They show trust and need, which matter for steady growth.

Challenges for Spending and Growth

Even with the cheer of Golden Week, China’s economy faces hard times. US tariffs on Chinese goods and new shipping steps have cut demand from abroad. This has sparked price cuts and lower margins. Companies now cut jobs to keep profits.

Job data adds to these signs. The overall jobless rate in China moved from 5.2% in July to 5.3% in August 2025. More worrisome is youth joblessness, which grew to 18.9% in August. This is up from 17.8% in July and 14.5% in June.

Problems in the housing market also make people worried. Sales in shops slowed in 2025. In August, sales rose by 3.4% year-on-year. This is lower than 3.7% in July and 4.8% in June.

If spending falls further this Golden Week, doubt may grow about Beijing’s plan for 5% GDP growth this year.

Possible Policy Moves and Stimulus Hopes

China’s banks, like Goldman Sachs, expect the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut interest rates. This move may boost work and spending. Some analysts note that Beijing may wait to change rules unless the growth rate slips.

Recent lawmakers repeated their goal to act fast on economic steps when risks come up. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) says the government will speed up new smart devices and set up fresh subsidies for buyers. It will also sharpen tools for watching, predicting, and warning on the economy.

Equity Markets: Hope Despite Uncertainty

Mainland stock markets have shown strength. They rose over the past three quarters, though the pace slowed in the third quarter of 2025. Progress in fields like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, along with hope for new rules, kept investor views high.

The CSI 300 index climbed nearly 18% this year. It reached a three-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index also went up by about 15.8%, its best mark in ten years. Yet, these numbers are still below past peaks. They might go higher if Golden Week data look good and if new policy steps come.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index lifted 36% this year. The Hang Seng Tech Index grew by 48.8% during the same period.

Looking Ahead: Trade and Market Views

After Golden Week, events in US-China trade will affect views at home and abroad. A drop in trade tension or a new trade deal may boost demand for Chinese goods and stocks. On the other hand, new trade issues may cut confidence and slow growth.

Leading economist Hao Hong says there is no simple cure for low trust at home except a rise in the stock market. His words show a tight link between market moves and consumer spending, especially when issues like housing troubles and rising jobless rates are in the mix.

Conclusion

The data from China’s Golden Week will help show the country’s growth path in 2025. Past Golden Weeks have pushed GDP up, but this year, customers face hard times from both outside and in. Policy makers stand ready to act if signs turn bad, and their moves will depend on the new numbers.

For both investors and onlookers, this Golden Week will show China’s strength and hint at Beijing’s next steps as the year nears its end.

About the Author:
Bob Mason brings more than 28 years of work in financial markets. He worked with global rating groups and large banks. He now writes on currencies, goods, different asset classes, and world stocks, with a close look at European and Asian scenes.

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Federal Reserve’s Response to Government Shutdown: The Likelihood of Interest Rate Cuts

Government Shutdown Increases Odds of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

October 1, 2025 — Washington, D.C.

A U.S. government shutdown now pushes the Fed toward lowering key rates later this month. Lawmakers still clash over the federal budget. Experts and market watchers see Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the committee prefer a cautious shift in policy as economic risks grow.

Shutdown’s Impact on Fed Policy Decisions

The standoff in Washington started at midnight Thursday. It may worsen economic gaps by slowing down government data and stirring labor market issues. Such events now support a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28–29. Krishna Guha, who leads global policy at Evercore ISI, said in a recent talk that the shutdown tips the odds further in favor of a rate cut. Guha added that the damage from the shutdown and weak labor data now weigh more than inflation worry for policy makers.

Market Pricing Signals Confirmation

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a 100% probability of an interest rate cut in October and an 88% chance of another cut in December. These numbers have jumped since the shutdown began. Market views now lean toward a softer monetary stance soon.

Economists at Bank of America note that government shutdowns often end before Fed meetings. This timing lets the Fed view complete economic data. Now, with the standoff still active, key gaps appear in data.

• Without a fresh report on September jobs, Chair Powell may see a “risk management” move as needed.
• The Fed may wish to cut rates to ease risks that grow with each day of shutdown stress.

The Labor Market at Risk

The shutdown now hits the labor market hard. The Congressional Budget Office says each extra day of closure forces about 750,000 federal employees into furlough at a cost of $400 million in pay each day.

Past shutdowns meant that furloughed workers later got back pay. But hints from President Trump may mean some staff will face lasting layoffs. This chance now troubles many over the labor market.

Private employers already show strain. ADP counted a drop of 32,000 jobs in September. Data on federal work by the Bureau of Labor Statistics may also show delays if the shutdown goes on. Such delays leave the Fed with less clear signs of economic trends.

Fed’s Evolving Outlook

At the September meeting, a small count of Fed officials backed two rate cuts for this year. Some worry that tariffs may push up prices for a short time. Still, most see inflation head back toward the 2% mark in coming years.

Chair Powell’s words stay practical. He says plans depend on fresh data. The shutdown, though, adds real unknowns. Market watchers now think the Fed may move to ease rules sooner.

Summary of Key Takeaways:

  • The government shutdown now makes a Fed rate cut in October more likely.
  • Markets show a 100% chance of an October cut and an 88% chance of a December cut.
  • Missing job data and weak labor trends press the Fed to act ahead of time.
  • Continuing furloughs may bring lasting harm to the labor market and steer Fed policy.
  • Fed leaders stay cautious but lean toward easing amid rising economic risks.

As Washington deals with its budget fight, the Fed now must balance fighting price rises and guarding the economy from shutdown impacts and a soft labor scene.

Stay tuned to CNBC for ongoing coverage of economic changes and Fed policy moves.

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