China’s Economic Crossroads: Will Stimulus Propel Growth or Invite a Stall?

China Outlook: Stimulus or Stall? China’s Next Moves Loom Over Markets and Growth

By Bob Mason | Published: August 19, 2025, 01:07 GMT

Global markets and investors keep a close eye on China’s path. Key questions grow as Beijing may use new stimulus measures to keep growth alive or allow a stall that could harm markets. Trade issues mix with soft economic signs and cautious investor moods. These factors add doubt for the world’s second-largest economy.

Trade Truce Extended Yet Fragile

On August 11, the United States and China extended a break in their trade war for 90 days. This choice stops a full fight for now. Both sides stay quiet on deep trade talks or changes in tariff ideas. Tariffs remain on Chinese goods at about 55% when sent to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. goods face around 10% when entering China.

This state forms a calm that is weak. Experts see risk if each side shifts its position soon.

Rare Earth Exports Signal Underlying Tensions

China now holds back on rare earth exports. These metals help many tech and defense jobs run. Beijing warns firms not to stockpile these resources. It cuts export amounts to stop foreign hoarding.

The China Beige Book shows that China uses rare earth exports to hold more power. This step shows Beijing wants to keep its bargaining strength.

Declining Shipping Volumes Reflect Slowing Trade

Data from shipments marks a drop in trade between China and the U.S. The Kobeissi Letter tells us that container ship trips from China reached a low in 15 days, the lowest in two years. Shipping numbers fell nearly 40% last month. This drop happens even with the tariff break, which shows tariffs still slow trade movements.

Economic Indicators Signal Slowing Growth

China had a strong second quarter. Still, in July, signs of slowing appear. Industrial output rose 5.7% from last year, down from 6.8% in June. The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, below the neutral mark of 50. This shift shows shrinking output and fewer new export orders.

Retail sales only grew 3.7% in July, down from 4.8% in June. Policy actions aimed to boost local spending, yet a weak housing market keeps consumer mood low. Rising costs in factories force firms to cut wages and staff. These trends suggest challenges that may test Beijing’s goal of a 5% GDP rise in 2025. Stock Markets Show Tentative Gains Amid Fragile Confidence

Mainland China’s stock markets have made small gains. The CSI 300 peaked at a 10‑month high, and the Shanghai Composite reached a 10‑year top in mid‑August. Both still trail all‑time highs, which points to cautious hope.

By contrast, U.S. markets kept rising. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 set record marks, helped by strong July retail data. Canadian economist Hao Hong says that a rising market is needed to lift household trust here—a point that Beijing knows well.

Divergent Views on China’s Economic Path

Economists have split opinions on China’s near‑term future. Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, notes that a strong first half makes a 5% GDP target seem possible. To reach the target, the economy must average nearly 4.7% growth in the rest of the year. This growth looks possible with a fiscal push and a bit of softer money policy.

Yet, Garcia Herrero warns that current gains may not hold without stronger actions. The service sector must get a push as well. Even with trade risks and falling prices, the Chinese government can use policy tools to back growth if needed. Natixis now expects GDP to reach 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. Strong Equity Rally Despite Uncertainty

Amid this uncertain time, stocks in China and Hong Kong did well in 2025:

  • CSI 300: +4.02% in August, +7.74% year‑to‑date (YTD).
  • Shanghai Composite: +4.33% in August, +11.23% YTD.
  • Hang Seng Index: +25.51% YTD, beating both Mainland markets and the Nasdaq (+11.97% YTD).

Investors watch Beijing’s next steps. A delay in a fiscal boost or softer economic numbers could end the current stock market rise.

Conclusion

China stands at a key point where its choices on stimulus and trade shape its future. The break in a trade fight stops a clash for now, yet problems persist with rare earth rules and tariffs.

Economic numbers show signs of slower growth. The policy moves in the coming months will decide if growth and market trust can stay on track. For global markets, China’s course stays a major factor amid ongoing worldwide challenges.

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Fortifying Trade: How Ireland’s Economy Thrives Amid US Tariff Challenges

Ireland’s Export-Led Economy Remains Resilient Amid Rising US Trade Tariffs

August 19, 2025 — Ireland’s economy grows through exports. A US trade tariff now hits European Union imports. A 15% tax comes into force. Analysts see little harm for public funds and key sectors in the near term.

Key Sectors Withstand Tariff Pressures

The 15% US tax adds a clear challenge. Ireland depends on exports and corporate taxes. The aeronautics and pharmaceutical fields hold strong in a friendly business setting. Companies in these sectors face many rules that keep them here. Scope Ratings notes a strong foreign investment close to EUR 1 trillion in these high value-added fields.

Some doubt exists in the pharmaceutical field. US officials study a move to raise taxes for that sector. This change may disrupt supply routes and slow research spending. A provisional US-EU trade deal, while not final and waiting for EU approval, cuts the chance of a full trade fight or extra taxes on US goods. This matter is important for Ireland’s digital services.

Economic Implications and Structural Challenges

US trade policy shows Ireland’s link with US markets. The presence of many large multinationals makes this link strong. Ireland now needs home reforms and more spending to face trade ups and downs. A strong stream of corporate tax helps the economy. Scope Ratings keeps Ireland at an AA credit rating with a Stable Outlook. In 2024, corporate taxes brought in EUR 39.1 billion, about 36% of tax revenues. A one-time EUR 14 billion payment from Apple helped this result. Estimates set corporate tax at around EUR 29.3 billion in 2025 and EUR 28.1 billion in 2026 after the new tariff hit.

Ireland’s overall government plan is expected to stay in surplus. In 2025, the surplus may reach about 2.6% of modified gross national income (GNI*), and the average may be near 2.3% from 2026 till 2030. Without the extra tax cash, the plan might see a small deficit of 1% to 2% of GNI*. A risk lies in the fact that ten companies give 57% of all corporate tax and three companies give 40%.

Government debt looks to drop steadily. The debt-to-GNI* ratio may fall from 68% in 2024 to 63% in 2025 and drop below 50% by 2030. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall from about 40% to 30%.

Strategic Reserves and Future Investment

The government now redirects extra tax income into state funds set up in 2024. These funds aim to keep finances steady and meet long-term needs in welfare and infrastructure. The Future Ireland Fund could grow to around EUR 100 billion by 2040. This fund helps cover health and social costs as the population ages. Each year until 2030, EUR 2 billion goes to the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund to upgrade roads, bridges, and fight climate change.

The debt’s schedule also supports a sound outlook. Less than 40% of the debt is due within five years, and its average term passes ten years. The National Treasury Management Agency holds a cash reserve of EUR 30 billion, about 5% of GDP, which gives more room for financing choices.

Addressing Supply-Side Constraints

Ireland now faces limits on labor and skills as the economy works at near full strength. The government’s updated National Development Plan sets out EUR 102.4 billion in capital spending from 2026 to 2030, and a total of EUR 275.4 billion by 2035. There are risks because the labor market stays tight and government processes can slow projects.

Work reforms will help ease these limits. They allow the economy to take on spending on housing, water, energy, and transport works. A good plan could keep Ireland’s competitive strength and guard against shocks from the global market. This work is key for a small, open, and linked economy.

Thomas Gillet, Director in Sovereign and Public Sector Ratings at Scope Ratings, wrote this report. Elena Klare, Sovereign Ratings Analyst at Scope Ratings, helped with the research.

For further economic updates and market insights, readers can refer to FXEmpire’s economic calendar and related coverage.

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CIBC Welcomes Mark Mulroney: A Strategic Shift from Scotiabank Ahead of New CEO Transition

CIBC Strengthens Executive Team with Hire of Mark Mulroney from Scotiabank

By Naimul Karim | Published August 13, 2025

CIBC, Canada’s fifth-largest bank, has hired Mark Mulroney from Scotiabank.
Mulroney served as vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank.
He now becomes global vice-chair at CIBC, starting mid-November.
Each word here links closely to the next, which makes the message clear.

This hire comes when CIBC faces big changes.
Its long-serving CEO, Victor Dodig, steps down after ten years.
Dodig leaves this November.
Harry Culham will then lead as the new CEO.
Short links between ideas help us follow the news easily.

Mark Mulroney is the son of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.
He built his career in corporate and investment banking.
At CIBC, he will use his skills to build strong client ties across all areas.
The message is simple and the words connect directly.

CIBC makes other leadership shifts, too.
Kevin Li, who led operations in Europe and global investment banking, will now guide CIBC’s U.S. region.
Christian Exshaw will take over as group head of capital markets.
Each connection is close and clear, so every change is easy to follow.

More changes are coming with retirements.
Shawn Beber, who led CIBC’s U.S. operations for 23 years, retires on July 1, 2026, and then moves to a special adviser role in November.
Chief Legal Officer Kikelomo Lawal will also retire, though the bank has not given a date.
The short paired links make this news simple to read.

Many leaders keep their roles under incoming CEO Culham but with extra tasks.
Hratch Panossian will still lead personal and business banking.
He now also supervises contact centers and client marketing.
Susan Rimmer remains the head of commercial banking and wealth management and will monitor the CIBC Caribbean group.
Chief Financial Officer Robert Sedran and Chief Risk Officer Frank Guse will continue in their roles.
Each phrase stays close to its head for clarity.

CIBC’s new executive moves show its focus on steady leadership and smart growth.
Tight word links make the report easy to follow as the bank begins a new era.

Contact: nkarim@postmedia.com

Photo Caption: Mark Mulroney (left), who is vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank, is shown with his brother Ben Mulroney at a Montreal charity event in 2022.
Photo Credit: John Kenney / Montreal Gazette

About CIBC:
CIBC is one of Canada’s largest banks. It offers many financial products and services to personal, business, public sector, and institutional clients.

About Scotiabank:
Scotiabank, or the Bank of Nova Scotia, is a leading Canadian bank. It serves clients in Canada and around the world.

For more financial news and updates, subscribe to Financial Post’s daily newsletter and stay informed about the latest developments in Canadian banking and beyond.

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NAHB Housing Market Index Falls to 32: What It Means for Builders and Buyers

NAHB Housing Market Index Falls to 32, Missing Analyst Expectations

August 18, 2025 – By Vladimir Zernov

The NAHB has published its new Home Builder Index on August 18, 2025. The report shows builder trust drop. The index moves from 33 in July to 32 in August. Analyst forecasts held at 34. ### Key Highlights from the Report

  • Housing Market Index: Moves from 33 to 32.
  • Current Sales Conditions: Drop from 36 to 35.
  • Sales Expectations for the Next Six Months: Stay at 43.
  • Traffic of Prospective Buyers: Rises from 20 to 22, yet stays low.
  • Price Cuts by Builders: 37% of builders lower prices in August, cutting about 5%.

Affordability Remains a Major Challenge

The report points out that high home costs stay as the main block. Many buyers hold off to see lower mortgage rates. This wait pulls down overall confidence.

Market Reactions

After the report came out, the U.S. Dollar Index sits near 98.00. This calm shows that investors act carefully with weak housing data. Gold slips near $3,335, as traders read the housing signs. The S&P 500 stays near 6,450 as it watches the builder mood.

Looking Ahead

The next months will test the home market. Watch mortgage rates, builder moves, and buyer traffic. Even with price cuts, high costs may keep buyers on the sidelines until money matters get better.

About the Author

Vladimir Zernov is a trader with 18 years in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and other markets. He works on both short and long forecasts.

For more on market events and updates, check the economic calendar.

Disclaimer: This article gives facts only and does not speak to investment plans. Do your own research and talk to a finance expert before any decisions.

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Modi’s Game-Changing Tax Reforms: Fueling India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Challenges

Modi Announces Tax Cuts to Boost India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures

New Delhi, August 18, 2025 — Indian markets rose on Monday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced tax cuts. Modi sets his eyes on boosting local spending. India faces rough times from rising U.S. tariffs linked to buying Russian crude oil.

Market Response and Economic Context

The Nifty 50 index climbed 1% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.84%. The Indian rupee grew stronger while the U.S. dollar slipped 0.18%.
U.S. tariffs, now set at 50% on Indian imports and a fresh 25% on Russian crude oil, will start at the end of August. Indian businesses see a spark in the tax cuts even as trade challenges build.

Details of the Tax Reforms

On August 15, 2025, Prime Minister Modi spoke on Independence Day about a new path for self-reliance and finance. He outlined a full change of the GST, moving from many taxes to two basic levels: 5% and 18%.
Before, GST rates varied widely with slabs like 12% and 28%. This new plan aims to:

• Make rules simple
• Cut tax rates on many goods
• Lessen loads for small and mid-sized businesses
• Lower taxes on must-have items
• Use technology with pre-filled returns and quicker refunds

This revamp may spark more investment in manufacturing, logistics, housing, and consumer goods, as noted by the India Brand Equity Foundation.

Impact on Key Industries: Focus on Auto Sector

The auto sector, which slowed recently, can win with these tax cuts. In 2024, passenger vehicle sales grew just 4.2%, the slowest in four years, said the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
On Monday, auto stocks jumped. Maruti Suzuki India rose 8.75% and Hyundai Motor India climbed 8.15%.
James Thom, a senior investment director at Aberdeen’s Asian equities team, told CNBC’s “Inside India,” "As the auto sector had moved slowly, this strong climb is a welcome change."

Broader Economic Outlook Amid Geopolitical Challenges

The Reserve Bank of India predicts a 6.5% growth in the economy for the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Geopolitical issues stay in play as U.S. tariffs add strain and ties with Russia weigh in.
Thom stressed that local spending is the backbone of India’s growth. He said, "The tax overhaul cuts down the load and makes processes simple, which can push the economy past the U.S. tariffs."
A Deloitte report found that domestic spending makes up 61.4% of GDP for 2024-25, and spending in cities and shifts toward luxury goods grow quickly.

Positive Consumption Trends and Inflation Control

India Ratings & Research expects personal spending to grow by 6.9% each year until March 2026, while the overall GDP should rise 6.3%. This outlook rests on:

• Low growth in real wages
• A fall in household savings
• Easier access to personal loans
• A drop in retail price increases from 4.31% in January to 1.55% in July 2025—the lowest since 2017

The calm in price rises may help keep spending on a steady course.

With Modi’s tax cuts, India tries to boost local demand and face U.S. tariff pressures head-on. The plans focus on home growth, using smart tech changes, and aiding key industries. These steps help support steady progress for India in 2025 and the years ahead.

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Navigating Economic Signals: A Deep Dive into U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Projections, and Import Prices

U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Outlook, and Import Costs Present Mixed Signals for Traders

By James Hyerczyk, Updated August 15, 2025

U.S. economic data show clear signals for traders. Retail sales grow, factories work more, and import prices move up. The numbers and policy hints sit close together. This mix makes traders watch the Fed’s next steps.

Retail Sales Show Steady Consumer Demand, Yet Slow Growth

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau point to a 0.5% rise in retail and food services sales in July, reaching $726.3 billion. A revised gain of 0.9% in June comes just before. On a yearly view, sales climbed 3.9%. This move shows that buyers still spend money.

Nonstore sellers such as online shops grew by 8.0% compared to last year. Food services and places that serve drinks grew by 5.6% over the same time. Core retail trade—which leaves out items like cars and gas stations—rose 0.7% on a month-by-month basis.

These figures point to strong buyer use. The slow pace in gains may cool thoughts on a quick rate rise from the Fed.

Manufacturing Confidence Rises in New York

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey comes back with good news. Its headline index jumped 22 points to 5.5 in July. Signs like new orders and shipments also grew, which shows more work in factories.

Inventories grew a lot, and delivery times got longer. These clues show work on fixing supply issues. The job index ticked up to 9.2, marking two months in a row of job gains. This boost feeds hope for a fuller job market.

Input costs climbed to an index of 56.0 while sales prices held at 25.7. The overall business index jumped to 24.1. This jump shows more cheer among local makers.

Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs

Import prices moved up 0.4% in July. These numbers reverse the fall seen in the two previous months. A main pulse of this rise comes from a 2.7% jump in fuel costs—petroleum climbed 2.4%, while natural gas went up 4.7%.

Nonfuel prices moved up 0.3%, so costs for industrial items, consumer goods, and capital equipment edged up. On a yearly view, import prices dropped 0.2%, mostly due to a large 12.1% fall in fuel prices last year.

Export prices in July rose slowly by 0.1%. Cars and capital goods helped push up these prices, while prices for farm items stayed near the same level. Over the year, export prices grew 2.2%, even as prices in markets like Japan fell and costs in Mexico held still.

Market View: Cautious Hope With Fed Uncertainty

Strong retail sales, improved factory numbers, and higher import prices show a balanced U.S. economy. Rising fuel costs and supply limits may push up more expenses. These extra costs might press company profit margins.

For traders, the data point to a watchful rise in the short term. Steady spending and a lift in factory signals add to this idea. Still, traders keep a sharp look at the Fed’s move on inflation and rates. Fed policy soon will sway asset costs.

Related Economic Developments

Other news point to a drop in China’s retail sales and a pause in industrial output. U.S. producer prices jumped, which may slow any thoughts of a rate drop. Energy rates keep shifting, and investors keep a close watch on them.

James Hyerczyk is a veteran U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over four decades of experience in market analysis and trading. He specializes in chart patterns and price movements and is the author of two books on technical analysis.

For ongoing updates, consult FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and related market reports.

China’s Economic Woes: Retail Sales Decline and Industrial Output Slowdown Weigh on Markets

China’s Retail Sales Slow, Industrial Production and Job Data Raise Concerns; Hang Seng Index Declines

By Bob Mason | Published August 15, 2025, 02:48 GMT

Recent data from China point to a mixed path. Retail sales grew less and fewer goods came off factories. Unemployment climbed. Each number connects to show worries about China’s growth. Markets react slowly. The Hang Seng Index closed lower.

Slower Retail Sales and Industrial Output Signal Consumer and Manufacturing Struggles

In July, retail sales in China grew 3.7% over last year. This result did not reach the forecast of 4.6%. The growth also fell behind June’s 4.8%. These facts spark calls for more steps to boost spending at home.

Factories produced 5.7% more goods compared to last year in July. In June, the rise was 6.8%, a bit above the predicted 5.9%. New data from buyer surveys add to the picture. The steep cost from US charges cuts down output in many factories. Each fact ties to worries over both trade and factory profits.

Rising Unemployment Adds Pressure on Policymakers

In July, the jobless rate moved to 5.2% from 5.0% in June. Stories show that factories cut jobs as costs grow. This link presses down on buying power and mood among consumers. Beijing works on steps to steady the economy. Still, these numbers add to doubt about the state of work and spending.

Slow retail sales, lower factory output, and a higher jobless rate combine to mark a tough time. The words connect to show a market in need of careful moves.

Property Market Shows Tentative Signs of Stabilization

There is one note of relief in housing data. The House Price Index dropped 2.8% in July, less than the 3.2% decline in June. This smaller fall hints that policy moves aimed at homes may be working.
The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index gained 2.12% after these numbers came out.

Market Reaction: Hang Seng and Forex Movements

The market took a careful view of the numbers. The Hang Seng Index started the day 0.8% below at 25,315. It then moved to 25,286 and was about 0.91% down at 25,289 when reported.
In another market, the Australian dollar rose for a short time after good housing data. It went from $0.64919 to $0.65003. But the softer retail sales and lower factory output, along with a higher jobless rate, pulled the AUD/USD down to a low of $0.64893. It steadied near $0.64894. —

Outlook: Need for Continued Support and Trade Developments

While the housing market shows small gains, the wider data mean more support may be needed for China’s growth. Beijing has set out new steps to boost home demand. But work data and buying mood still signal strain. The market keeps close watch on trade links. A longer US-China pause in trade shows that risks still exist and may affect China’s turn around.

About the Author

Bob Mason brings over 28 years of experience in the financial field. He covers matters in currencies, raw materials, and global stocks, with care for markets in Europe and Asia. He has worked with many big banks and well-known rating groups.

For more detailed numbers and regular updates on China’s data and market moves, readers should view the complete economic calendar and related pieces on trade ties and policy steps.

David Zervos Champions Bold Rate Cuts as Potential Fed Chair: A Market-Driven Approach to Economic Growth

David Zervos, Potential Fed Chair Candidate, Advocates for Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts

Wall Street veteran and Jefferies’ chief market strategist, David Zervos, now earns attention as a leading name for the next Federal Reserve chair. On Thursday, he spoke in favor of quick cuts in interest rates. His view joins others who ask for Fed action without delay.

Calling for Immediate Rate Reductions

For the last three Fed meetings, Zervos has asked for a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate. In a CNBC interview, he repeated his call even as data shows inflation still holds on. Zervos noted the July Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a rise in pipeline prices.

He sees the PPI data not as a stop sign but as the last mark in a long fight against rising prices. A quick drop in rates, he says, will help keep the labor market strong and could add a million new jobs.

"I’m still absolutely there. I think there is a reasonable storyline, a very cogent storyline, that suggests monetary policy is restrictive," Zervos stated. "Generally speaking, I don’t see any reason why this [PPI] number changes that view."

Expanding the List of Potential Fed Chairs

At first, discussions on Jerome Powell’s successor—whose term ends next year—named only a few people. In recent days, the list has grown to close to a dozen. Among these are former Fed workers, Trump team advisers, and well-known Wall Street economists.

Zervos and BlackRock bond strategist Rick Rieder stand out. They bring real market skills rather than a pure economics view. Zervos thinks a Fed filled with market-smart staff would really work well.

"I think it would be an incredible benefit to have more market-competent people involved in the monetary policy decision," he commented.

Broader Support for Rate Cuts

Zervos is not the only one who wants a clear rate cut. Economist Marc Sumerlin, also eyed for the Fed chair job, backs a similar half-point drop. He says the Fed has been too slow in taming inflation.

Former President Donald Trump has pressed for even bigger cuts. He suggests dropping up to 3 percentage points (300 basis points) from the current rate of about 4.33%. Zervos admitted he might not cut that much, but he remains open to a drop of up to 200 basis points. He sees modern tech changes and shifts in supply as reasons that could shape future price drops.

Navigating Politics and Monetary Policy

Zervos says politics will not shake his view. He faces harsh words from people like Trump. He knows that the Fed chair job comes with political ties. Zervos stressed that facts should lead the discussion and that decisions must follow the rules set by Congress.

"You go into that job fully understanding that you’re involved in the political process… The goal is to have the debate be driven by facts and be driven by what is best for achieving the mandates that Congress sets out," Zervos said.

In the race to select the next Federal Reserve head, support for fast rate cuts shows worries about balancing price controls with growth and jobs. David Zervos’s solid market view and call for easier monetary policy mark him as an important choice in this leadership change.

EIA Reports Surprising 56 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build: What It Means for Prices and Demand

EIA Reports Natural Gas Storage Build of 56 Bcf, Surpassing Estimates and Applying Bearish Pressure on Prices

August 14, 2025 – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report shows a build of 56 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This figure beats analyst forecasts of 53 Bcf. Last week, the build was only 7 Bcf.

Right now, natural gas stocks sit 196 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year. This gap shows that supplies are high. Stocks remain 79 Bcf below last year, which shows some seasonal change even when supply looks ample.

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

The unexpected storage increase brings a bearish look to the market. After the report, natural gas futures fell. Traders see the high build as a sign of abundant supply amid steady production.

Vladimir Zernov, an independent trader with 18 years of market experience, said, "Our view is that this large storage increase will keep prices lower in the near term. Even if weather forecasts point to strong demand until the end of the week, prices have not gained strong support because many in the market watch high production levels closely."

From a technical view, natural gas prices try to hold steady above a support zone between $2.70 and $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). If prices fall below $2.70, traders will look to support near $2.50 to $2.55. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) nears oversold levels. New market signals could bring some price movement.

Weather and Demand Forecasts

Experts expect high natural gas demand in the coming days, driven by weather needs. The current surplus in inventory and steady production keep downward pressure on prices for now.

Summary of Key Data

  • Weekly Storage Build: +56 Bcf (reported) vs. +53 Bcf (expected)
  • Previous Week Build: +7 Bcf
  • Storage vs. Five-Year Average: +196 Bcf
  • Storage vs. Last Year: -79 Bcf

Broader Market Context

Other market updates join this news. There was a recent rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and shifts in crude oil inventories. These points add to a complex background that shapes energy markets and investor views.

For more updates on natural gas and other markets, check economic calendars and market forecasts regularly.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with many years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. He writes about market trends and both short-term and long-term price moves.

Disclaimer:
This article is for information only. It does not serve as trading advice. Readers should do their own research and speak with financial experts before making any trading decisions.

Surprising Surge: July 2025 PPI Inflation Report Reveals 0.9% Increase, Casting Doubts on Fed Rate Cuts

Wholesale Prices Surge by 0.9% in July 2025, Signaling Persistent Inflation Concerns

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report came out on August 14, 2025. It shows wholesale prices rose sharply in July. Prices jumped 0.9% in one month. This is the largest increase since June 2022. The report points to strong inflation in the U.S. economy. It may affect the Federal Reserve policy soon.

Key Highlights from the July 2025 PPI Report

  • Overall PPI rise: 0.9% versus a Dow Jones forecast of 0.2%.
  • Core PPI (skip food and energy): Up 0.9% against a prediction of 0.3%.
  • Core PPI (skip food, energy, and trade services): Up 0.6%, the largest gain since March 2022.
  • Annual PPI growth: 3.3%, the strongest 12-month increase since February and above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Services inflation: Increased 1.1% in July, the highest from March 2022.
  • Trade services margins: Went up by 2% due to tariff measures.

Drivers Behind the Inflation Rise

The report shows key factors that pushed prices higher:

  • Machinery and equipment wholesaling: Prices climbed 3.8%. This jump made up about 30% of the rise in services.
  • Portfolio management fees: Rose by 5.4%.
  • Airline passenger services: Increased 1%.

These points show that cost pressures grow for both goods and services. Producers may pass higher input costs on to buyers.

Market and Economic Effects

After the report came out, stock market futures fell while short-term U.S. Treasury yields went up. This move shows that investors worry about steady inflation. The PPI, though watched less than the Consumer Price Index, still shows price pressure at the wholesale level. It also feeds the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the main tool the Fed uses to track inflation.

Clark Geranen, chief market strategist at CalBay Investments, said, "The strong PPI, along with soft CPI figures, shows that businesses are covering some tariff costs now. They might soon pass these costs to buyers." This may lead to higher prices for shoppers in coming months.

Market views on Federal Reserve policy have shifted slightly. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a lower chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The odds for several rate cuts this year have dropped more.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said, "The spike in the PPI today shows inflation moving through the economy, even if buyers have not felt it fully yet. This unexpected rise in wholesale prices is likely to lower hopes for a sure rate cut in September."

Broader Context and Data Challenges

The PPI report comes at a time when experts look closely at the accuracy of BLS data. This month, President Donald Trump fired the former BLS commissioner and named economist E.J. Antoni as the new head. Antoni has challenged the BLS methods and pushed to check the data with better measures. He even suggested pausing some labor market reports until the data improves.

Budget cuts and layoffs at the BLS have led to changes in how data is gathered. The July PPI report did not include about 350 cost groups. This change makes some ask whether the data is complete.

Summary

July 2025’s PPI report shows that inflation remains strong in the wholesale sector. Both goods and services prices have risen sharply. This may force the Federal Reserve to work hard to control inflation without causing a recession. Investors, policymakers, and buyers will watch future data for more signs of changes in prices.

For more news on inflation, market moves, and Fed policy, keep up with CNBC and top economic news sources.