News – Page 5 – The Money Grower

Trump’s Trade Strategy Hits a Home Run: Tariffs and Investment Deals with a Baseball Twist

Trump’s Tariff Playbook Comes with a Baseball Twist

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on CNBC. In his talk, he mixed trade talk with a baseball image. He compared global trade funds to the bonus a baseball player might get when signing with a team. Trump tied big money from trade deals to a familiar sports idea.

Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Baseball Bonuses

On CNBC’s Squawk Box this Tuesday, Trump noted large sums from recent trade deals with Europe and Japan. He spoke in short, clear phrases that link each idea tightly:

"We’re taking in trillions of dollars… people love the tariffs, they love the trade deals, and they love that foreign countries are not ripping us off anymore."

He named Japan next. For Japan, he explained that the U.S. would see about $550 billion in funds. He drew a direct link to a baseball bonus:

"If you look at Japan, we’re taking in $550 billion, and that’s like a signing bonus that a baseball player would get. He would get slightly less than that… He would get a million dollars, or $2 million or $20 million, or whatever they give today."

Trump made sure his words tied the investment to American control:

"So I got a signing bonus from Japan of $550 billion. That’s our money. It’s our money to invest, as we like."

European Union’s Commitment

The European trade deal shows similar connections. The agreement cuts import rates to 15% and sets up $750 billion in American energy sales by 2028. The EU also set aside $600 billion for new spending in the U.S. When asked for details, Trump stated:

"The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want, anything, I can do anything I want with it."

He then tied these funds with tariff moves:

"Well, then they pay tariffs at 35%. No, no. They brought down their tariffs."

When others asked why the EU had a lower tariff, he said simply:

"Because [the EU] gave me $600 billion. And that’s a gift — that’s not a loan. There’s nothing to pay back. They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want."

Strategic Industrial Revitalization

The White House has said the funds target key sectors that revive America’s core industries. The focus connects clearly with several building blocks:

Energy infrastructure and production
Semiconductor making
Essential minerals mining
Drug and medical production
Both commercial and defense ship building

These steps tie U.S. efforts to lower foreign import needs and grow nearby manufacturing.

A Deal-Maker’s Vocabulary

Trump uses plain language shaped by his background in real estate and deal-making. His style uses clear, short links between words. His baseball “signing bonus” image makes big numbers and trade ideas feel close and clear.

Watch the full CNBC interview with President Donald Trump on Squawk Box for more on his trade path and future money moves.

Summary:
President Donald Trump talked about huge funds from Japan and the EU. He called these funds baseball bonuses like those seen in pro sports. The trade deals aim to boost U.S. industry and cut reliance on foreign sources, with every link between words kept close for easier understanding.

Trump’s Alarming 41% Tariff on Syria: Economic Stranglehold or Political Leverage?

News

Syria Faces Further Economic Strain Amid Highest Global U.S. Tariffs Despite Recent Sanctions Lift

Date: August 6, 2025

The Trump team sets a 41% tariff on Syrian goods. This tariff rate is the highest in the world. President Trump lifted U.S. limits on Syria just a few months ago. The new tax and the lifted rules now work side by side in a surprising way.

A Complex Economic Landscape for Syria

Syria carries the label of a terrorism supporter since 1979. The U.S. set strong limits in 2004 and pushed them further in 2011 when the government acted harshly against protestors. Years of civil war, harmful fighting among groups, and the rise and fall of ISIS have left Syria hurt. Its markets, banks, and services now suffer under these heavy burdens.

In May 2025, at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, President Trump announced a full removal of U.S. limits. Many saw this as a sign that Syria might soon heal. Yet only three short months later, the high tariff casts doubt on that hope. U.S. trade with Syria is very small. In 2023, exports hit about $11.3 million, while imports stayed near $1.29 million. The steep tariff now sends a strong and clear signal.

Impact on Reconstruction and Trade

Experts say Syria needs help to rebuild. The transitional government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, looks for steady support from abroad. Over two-thirds of Syria’s power grid is down, and major cities like Aleppo and Damascus face long blackouts. Relief groups plan energy projects. One project from Qatar aims to supply gas to over 5 million people. The new tariff may cut off the chance for better U.S. trade and slow down fresh investment.

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, notes that the high rate stops any chance for solid trade ties with the United States. He sees the measure as direct pressure on Damascus to shift its politics. His view is that U.S. goals include pushing Syria to adjust its stance, such as moving toward a different kind of relation with Israel, which still acts in Syrian areas.

The Symbolism Behind the Tariff

The high rate may not hurt trade numbers much, yet it speaks loudly. The tariff works like a firm hand that keeps Syria in check. U.S. adjustments later may depend on choices made in Damascus. H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warns that Syria’s recovery teeters on a thin line. He says one misstep could push Syria back into deeper conflict and pain.

International and Diplomatic Dimensions

After limits fell, delegations from the U.S., Gulf states, and others visited Syria. Qatar and Saudi Arabia stay active in builds and aid works. Fahad Al-Sulaiti, director general of Qatar Fund for Development, says U.S. contacts work with them to support Syria’s fragile state. U.S. envoy Tom Barrack voices strong backing for Syria’s transitional government. No clear word has come from the State Department or the White House on why the tariff makes sense in Syria’s case.

Conclusion

The 41% tariff on Syria follows soon after removing old U.S. limits. This mix of actions shows a U.S. approach that holds both care and doubt for Syria’s new government. Even if the tax may not hurt trade right away, its strong message could affect Syria’s steps toward lasting calm and rebuild. As Syria works to recover from years of damage, experts urge a united international effort that avoids mixed signals.

For ongoing coverage and analysis of Syria and global economic policies, subscribe to CNBC PRO or join the Investing Club.

Bitter Cost: How 39% Tariffs on Swiss Luxury Goods Will Impact U.S. Consumers’ Wallets

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Chocolate, Skincare, and Timepieces: How 39% U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Goods Will Impact Prices

Published: August 5, 2025

U.S. consumers love Swiss products like fine chocolates, quality skincare, and luxury watches. They now face higher prices. The new 39% tariff on Swiss goods takes effect this Thursday unless negotiators reach a fast deal. Here, each word pair links closely to make the text clear and easy to follow.

Background on the Tariff Dispute

News last week shocked many. Switzerland now risks one of the highest U.S. tariff rates. Politicians, analysts, and businesses expected a lower rate. They had seen the European Union use a 15% tariff and the United Kingdom use a 10% rate.
A U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland hit $38.3 billion in 2024. A large part of this gap ties to Swiss gold refining. Gold and silver pass quickly through Switzerland for processing before they move around the world. Imports of these metals do not pay the exchange tariffs.
Pharmaceuticals form another important sector. These products now do not pay tariffs. Ongoing U.S. probes under Section 232 could change rules for some medical devices and drugs later.

Key Sectors Impacted by the Tariffs

Luxury Watches

Swiss watches rank as top exports. In 2024, U.S. buyers spent 4.37 billion Swiss francs ($5.4 billion) on these timepieces. To be called “Swiss-made,” a watch must have at least 60% of its production cost in Switzerland and must be designed there. Experts worry a 39% tariff will push prices high:

Paul Altieri, CEO of Bob’s Watches, said the price of a Rolex Submariner might jump from $10,000 to almost $14,000.
Jean-Philippe Bertschy of Vontobel said mid-range Swiss watches may suffer more. Shops and makers could face longer waits and higher costs.
Top brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet may cope better, even though they have long waiting lists.

Coffee Products

Nestlé sees mixed results. Most of its U.S. items come from local plants, so they feel little change. Its Nespresso line is made in Switzerland and could see a small price rise. North American sales of Nespresso grew in early 2025. This growth shows that even small hikes can matter.

Skincare and Beauty Products

Swiss brands in skin care and beauty include:

La Prairie (with caviar-based anti-aging creams)
Valmont (used in spa treatments)
Mavala (in nail care)

Analysts from Lombard Odier say Swiss firms normally cope with tariffs of 10% to 15% without big profit loss. A 39% tariff creates a hard challenge. Galderma, which makes injectable skin products and Cetaphil facewash, produces most of its goods outside Switzerland. This practice keeps it clear of current tariffs but may change in later reviews.

Luxury Goods

High-end jewelers like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels face rising costs. Bank of America Securities shows that 7% of Richemont’s input costs are affected by the tariff. Richemont has warned that higher tariffs may lead to increased prices and lower demand. Some luxury brands may see a slight lift if a higher price tag adds to their rare image. Still, most will feel the impact.

Chocolate Industry

Swiss chocolates are well known around the world. The 39% tariff, along with a stronger Swiss franc, may drive prices up by as much as 55%. Small and medium-sized Swiss chocolate makers, such as Camille Bloch and Läderach, may lose many customers if they cannot produce in the U.S. Some giants like Lindt & Sprüngli and Barry Callebaut own U.S. facilities, which helps them cope, but smaller firms do not have that option.
Roger Wehrli from Chocosuisse reminds us that chocolate must be made in Switzerland to keep the “Swiss chocolate” mark. Toblerone had to change its packaging after moving some of its work to Slovakia in 2023. —

What’s Next?

Swiss negotiators work fast to stop the tariffs from starting this Thursday. They know that high tariffs could hurt growth, jobs, and stock values. Economists warn that long tariffs may shake consumer demand and change old trade links, especially in top product groups.
U.S. buyers should get ready for a rise in prices on Swiss goods, from luxury watches and skin products to chocolates and coffee. The coming days will show if negotiators cut the tariff or lessen its effects.

For ongoing coverage and updates on the U.S.-Swiss tariff matter, stay tuned to CNBC.

Market Alert: ISM Services PMI Dips to 50.1 as SP500 Hits Session Lows – What This Means for Your Investments

News

ISM Services PMI Drops to 50.1, S&P 500 Tests Session Lows

By Vladimir Zernov | Published: August 5, 2025, 14:19 GMT

The U.S. services sector shows slower growth in July. The new report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) tells us that the Services PMI slipped from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July. This decline went below the analyst forecast of 51.5 yet stays just above the 50 mark that separates growth from decline.

Key Metrics Reflect Slowing Momentum

The report gives these supporting figures:

The New Orders Index fell from 51.3 to 50.3. This drop signals that demand slows down.
The Employment Index sank from 47.2 to 46.4. This fall indicates that hiring remains weak.

These adjacent numbers suggest that the services part of the economy grows only slowly. At the same time, there are signs that business work and hiring share the strain.

Factors Influencing Services Activity

The report shows a few forces at work. Tariffs make supply chain costs higher and push up prices. Seasonal shifts and poor weather add to the soft numbers. Even with these pressures, the economy stays in expansion for a second month. This pattern shows that the sector holds on amid tough conditions.

Market Reactions: Equities, Dollar, and Gold

When the report came out, the market moved fast:

The S&P 500 slid to near the session low as investors worry that slow services growth could affect corporate profits and the economic pulse.
The U.S. Dollar Index stayed above 99.00 as it bounced back after earlier falls linked to weak payroll figures.
Gold settled near $1,370 an ounce as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields keep gold prices in check.

Broader Economic Context

This new ISM report adds to signs that the U.S. economy faces a mixed scene. While the services sector grows slowly, the drop in new orders and lower hiring cast doubt on how strong this pace might be. Ongoing tariff matters and other forces make the road ahead less clear.

Investors and experts will watch upcoming reports and company results closely. They seek better clues on what comes next for the U.S. economy and the market.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is a trader with more than 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. His work focuses on predicting both short and long market trends.

For ongoing updates on economic data and market views, visit our Economic Calendar.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not serve as financial advice or a pitch to buy or sell assets.

Trump’s Fed Chair Candidates: Bessent Bows Out as Four Contenders Emerge for the Role

News

Trump Narrows Federal Reserve Chair Candidates, Treasury Secretary Bessent Steps Aside

Trump reduced the list of Fed Chair candidates when he announced on CNBC’s Squawk Box that Scott Bessent will not try to lead the central bank. The President said Bessent will stay at the Treasury Department. This choice cuts the list to four candidates.

Bessent Opts to Stay as Treasury Secretary

Trump spoke with high respect for Bessent. Still, Bessent chose to remain in his current role. Last night, Trump asked him, “Is this something you want?” Bessent replied, “Nope, I want to stay where I am. I want to work with you.” Trump called this response an honor. Bessent was once seen as a top choice for the influential role, but he is out of the running now.

The Remaining Contenders

Trump did not name all four candidates but mentioned a few well-known figures:

Kevin Warsh – former Fed Governor known for favoring lower interest rates.
Kevin Hassett – the director of the National Economic Council who often supports rate cuts.
Christopher Waller – a current Fed Governor who is said to be competing.

Trump spoke well of both Kevins, calling them “very good” candidates. He also referred to other strong prospects. In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned effective this Friday. Trump called Kugler’s exit a “pleasant surprise” because it frees up a seat for someone from Trump’s circle.

The Fed Chair Position and Interest Rate Policies

The current Chair, Jerome Powell, will finish his term in May 2026. Powell was nominated by Trump in 2017 and was confirmed by the Senate. Trump often criticizes Powell for the way he handles interest rate policies. In a remark, Trump said, “Sir, I’ll keep interest rates so low. I’m a low interest rate person.”
Right now, interest rates sit in the 4.25%-4.5% range. Markets expect the next rate drop to come in September. This fits with Trump’s long-held view in favor of looser monetary rules.

Speculation on a “Shadow Chair”

Trump did not rule out the idea of naming a second, backup chair for the Fed. Though he did not say he would make that move, he noted that it remains “a possibility.”

The administration now readies itself to fill key positions at the Federal Reserve. This move may align the central bank closer to the White House’s economic plans in an election year.

For real-time updates and live coverage, CNBC viewers can tune into the Squawk Box livestream and check detailed reports on the changing Fed leadership.

Source: CNBC, August 5, 2025

S&P 500 Pre-Market Insights: Pfizer’s Profit Surge vs. Yum Brands’ US Sales Struggles

News

S&P 500 Pre-Market Update: Pfizer Soars on Profit Upgrade, Yum Brands Faces U.S. Sales Headwinds

August 5, 2025 — U.S. stock markets stand ready to open. Investors watch major S&P 500 names. Pfizer, a pharmaceutical leader, sees its shares rise. This rise links to a strong Q2 earnings report and a higher profit forecast for the full year. In contrast, Yum Brands, which runs several restaurant chains, feels pressure. Its U.S. same-store sales drop at places like Pizza Hut and KFC.

Pfizer Delivers Strong Q2 Results, Raises Profit Outlook

Pfizer posts 78 cents per share in adjusted earnings on $14.65 billion in revenue. This share gain meets a report that exceeded analysts’ views of 58 cents per share and $13.56 billion in revenue. The company’s net income climbs to $2.91 billion, which equals 51 cents per share. This result links to a comparison with $41 million last year during the same time. Gains happen outside Pfizer’s shrinking COVID-19 work. Its cost-cutting and new operational moves aid this rise.

Raised earnings lead Pfizer to move its full-year adjusted profit range to $2.90–$3.10 per share. The earlier range, $2.80–$3.00, shifts upward. The company keeps its revenue range at $61–$64 billion. Even with a $1.35 billion charge in Q3 from a licensing deal with China’s 3SBio, Pfizer shows hope in a growth plan that uses strict cost control.

Pfizer also shows it feels the pressure from tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. Its report notes these tariffs bring extra expenses, which it had pegged at about $150 million for the year. The company drives cost cuts to save $7.7 billion by 2027. This plan helps it stick to a path that deals with outside pressures.

Yum Brands Misses on U.S. Sales Despite Global Growth

Yum Brands, known for restaurants such as KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, posts 1.44 dollars per share in adjusted earnings. It earns $1.93 billion in revenue for the quarter. These results come in just below the expected 1.46 dollars per share and $1.94 billion in sales. Its net income grows to $374 million from $367 million in the same quarter last year.

The sales drop happens mainly in the U.S. Here, same-store sales fall at key restaurants like Pizza Hut and KFC. Global net sales grow by 10 percent. The weak performance at home casts doubt on U.S. customer demand. This drop connects to shifts in how much people spend and what they prefer to eat.

Market Outlook and Investor Focus

Pfizer upshifts its profit outlook and shows strong quarterly results. Its report shows it takes cost cuts and tariff pressures into account. Investors now watch Q3 earnings. They want to see if profit margins stay steady after adding the licensing charge. They also await notes on regulation and price moves.

Yum Brands now focuses on U.S. market trends. Its near-term success needs stable or better customer demand during the rest of 2025. Economic shifts and consumer changes stay linked to its stock’s path.

Other Market News

Alongside Pfizer and Yum Brands, names like Palantir Technologies create market buzz with strong earnings. Market trends react to economic signals and changes in global manufacturing data. Tariff policies and other global moves also hold weight. Investors can track updates on market moves, earnings dates, and economic forecasts by watching trusted financial news and tracking S&P 500 pre-market clues.

Article by James Hyerczyk, a U.S.-based technical analyst with over 40 years of experience in market study and trading.

Palantir’s Stellar Earnings Propel Nasdaq 100 to New Heights: A Bullish Market Ahead?

News

Palantir Shares Surge Pre-Market After Strong Q2 Results, Lifting Nasdaq 100 and Market Mood

By James Hyerczyk | August 5, 2025, 06:20 GMT

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) hit new highs in pre-market deals on Tuesday. The company showed strong Q2 numbers that beat all key measures. This news lifted Palantir’s stock and brought good mood to the Nasdaq 100 index as many see promise in the tech scene.

Palantir Stock Reaches Record Levels

Palantir’s shares closed Monday at $160.66, up 4.14%. Early Tuesday, the price added another 5.05% to hit $168.77. With this rise, Palantir may soon near a $400 billion market cap. The rise marks a major point for this data and software firm.

Investors saw the good news and Nasdaq 100 futures moved up by 70.75 points (0.30%) to 23,367.25 by early Tuesday.

High Revenue and Big U.S. Army Deal Push Growth

Palantir earned $1.004 billion in Q2, a 48% jump from last year. This beat analyst forecasts of $939 million. Government sales rose 53% to $426 million. A key reason was a 10-year, $10 billion deal with the U.S. Army. This deal joins 75 older contracts into one smart defense system.

CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “bombastic” and sees more work with U.S. agencies ahead. Analysts mark this deal as one of the largest software agreements at the U.S. defense body. It shows Palantir’s strong role in tech for government.

U.S. Commercial AI Work Grows Fast

Palantir’s U.S. commercial side posted a 93% rise in revenue to $306 million, passing the $273 million forecast. The firm closed $2.27 billion in contract value during the quarter, a 140% jump from last year.

The team links this gain to high demand for smart tools that help businesses make split-second choices. Fields like healthcare, transport, and making need fast data use. While its work outside the U.S. stays small, the U.S. side grows fast.

Profit Jumps and Future Numbers Go Up

Palantir’s net profit doubled to $326.7 million. Earnings per share came to $0.16 instead of $0.14. The firm now sees full-year sales between $4.14 billion and $4.15 billion. It also raises U.S. commercial targets to $1.3 billion, a jump of at least 85% over last year.

The stock now trades at more than 1000 times its earnings. This high value makes it the priciest share in the S&P 500 by the price-earnings rule. Some worry about the high multiple, yet strong profit numbers show that the company gains from its operations.

Market View: Upbeat Yet With Value Risks

Palantir’s fast growth and key U.S. contracts add strong push to its stock and the Nasdaq market. Still, some hold back due to high value and a possible slow in growth.

For now, signals point to more gains for PLTR and other tech shares as Nasdaq futures stay strong. Still, care is needed given high price-earnings numbers and changes in the wider economy.

For those who track market shifts and Nasdaq 100 trends, Palantir’s strong Q2 numbers mark a key moment. It backs strong views in AI-based business software and U.S. tech work.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based market expert and teacher with over 40 years of work in the field. He studies chart shapes and has written several books on trading and analysis.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only. It is not financial advice. Readers must do their own research and talk to a financial expert before any investing moves.

China’s Economic Resilience: Navigating Tariffs and Rising Services Amid Manufacturing Struggles

News

China’s Economic Outlook Clouded by Tariffs Despite Services Sector Resilience

By Bob Mason | Published August 5, 2025, 04:29 GMT

China’s economy stays on an unsure course as US tariffs press hard on its factory work, while the service work shows strength. Data from S&P Global connects each part with its own pace. The manufacturing side suffers under trade limits and local cost pressures, but the service side builds up hope with rising work and effort.

Services Sector Shows Strong Growth in July

S&P Global’s China General Services Purchasing Managers’ Index pushed up fast in July. The score grew from 50.6 in June to 52.6, marking the fastest jump in local demand over the past year. The report ties this jump to a faster rise in new work and a return of outside orders after three long months. More domestic trips and steady trade keep work moving forward.

Staff counts in the services area rose sharply. This gain comes after a drop in June. Output prices moved higher for the first time in six months. The change tells us that companies now share more trust in their plans. Jingyi Pan, Economist Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, "The services side did well in July. It stands out when the factory work slows down. The fresh rise in prices also shows that firms now have more trust."

Manufacturing Sector Declines Amid Tariff Pressures

In a different turn, the S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI sank to 49.5 in July. This drop shows that factory work is shrinking. Domestic and overseas demand falls as makers feel higher cost strains and cut jobs. US tariffs, which now add 40% fees on goods passing by Southeast Asia to places such as Vietnam, hit the sector hard. These fees try to stop China from using indirect trade paths to skip direct duties.

Experts point to export work weakening further. The China Beige Book notes that new US rules on shipment origins aim to restrict these indirect moves soon. US tariffs match a 16.1% year-on-year fall in Chinese exports to the US in June. Exports to Southeast Asia grew by 16.8%, which helped with the gap. Through May, overall exports grew by 5.8% compared to last year, backing a 5.2% Q2 GDP rise.

Market and Investor Reactions

Mixed signs shift market mood. Soon after the services PMI report, the Hang Seng Index dropped. Later on, it settled at 24,760—a small gain of 0.11% on early August 5. Traders hope that a new US-China trade deal and fresh money measures from Beijing will spark change. Still, the index has not reached its July 24 high of 25,736. Ongoing trade strain and more tariff moves keep the path clouded.

The stock markets in Mainland China keep a firm hold as they work past the factory troubles and tariff concerns. Both the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index made small rises in early August after a strong July. Traders watch trade talks and Beijing’s promise of new help to boost local buying.

Outlook and Key Upcoming Events

As events progress, traders and experts will keep an eye on these points: the US-China trade data coming on August 7, advances in trade talks, and the size of next steps from Beijing. A move to ease trade rules, along with well-timed government help, may boost market trust and invite more stock buying in Hong Kong and Mainland China. If tariffs get tougher or the new help falls short, growth may slow and the mood among investors might drop.

For real-time updates on China’s trade rules and stock trends, stay tuned to FXEmpire’s economic calendar and market coverage.

About the Author
Bob Mason brings over 28 years of financial industry experience, covering currencies, commodities, alternative assets, and global equities, with a special focus on European and Asian markets. He has worked with multiple global rating agencies and multinational banks.

This article shows the economic and market facts as of early August 2025 and sticks to the data and expert views available at the time.

July Jobs Report Shows Evidence of Economic Slowdown: What It Means for the U.S. Economy Ahead

News

July Jobs Report Highlights Sharp Slowdown in U.S. Economy

The July jobs report fuels debate over the U.S. economy. Its data shows a weak labor market. The report hints that growth fades more than standard counts show.

Key Takeaways from the July Jobs Report

Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 73,000, a number that falls well short of modest forecasts.
The job numbers for May and June drop. The three‐month average sits at 35,000 – less than one third of last year’s pace.
The soft labor market makes it seem that the economy cools down more than GDP numbers reveal.

Luke Tilley, Chief Economist at Wilmington Trust, said,
"We see a slow down across our economy. I ask if it may turn into a recession."
He sees a 50% chance of a recession. He ties long tariff effects to lower spending by consumers and businesses. In Q1 2025, spending accounted for 68% of all activity.

Tariff Effects and Price Changes

Tilley points out tariffs set under President Donald Trump make imports cost more. This fact cuts spending on travel, fun, and leisure. The result is that price rises stay low despite the extra fees.

Mixed Signals: GDP Growth vs. Weak Job Numbers

GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3% in Q2 2025, yet the first half of the year averaged only about 1.2% growth. Consumer spending barely grew by 1%. A boost in Q2 came when imports dropped. Firms had moved many orders forward in Q1 from the threat of higher fees.

Economists stay cautious:

Gus Faucher, Chief Economist at PNC, expects slow growth later in 2025 and early 2026 but does not call a recession. He points out that higher tariff fees add risk.
Goldman Sachs sees growth dropping to nearly 1% in the last two quarters. This drop comes from weaker job gains, extra fees, lower spending, and cuts in cash help.

Political and Policy Views

White House staff say the economy stays sound and expect fixes with President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

After the report, President Trump attacked the data. He called the figures "FAKED" and "RIGGED" on social media and fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council Director, noted the revised numbers with care. He stressed that basic strengths still exist and there is hope for the rest of the year.

Fed Watch: Rates and Outlook

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady. Fed staff see the labor market as strong but may relook if new data shows more weakness.

Other pointers suggest strain:

Housing data shows fewer buyers even as prices and mortgage rates stay high. A 30‐year fixed rate nears 7%.
Factory orders dropped by 4.8% in July, the largest fall since early 2024.
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index hit its lowest mark since late 2024. Experts like Jim Paulsen see these signals as ways to read a coming downturn.

Market Mood and Investor Views

The stock market shows strength amid these risks. The Dow Jones fell 1.7% over the past month, yet a Monday rally came as hopes grew for a lasting U.S.-EU tariff pact.

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer at Key Private Bank, said,
"There has been much calm as many expect good times to hold on. Still, doubt is high, and we advise clients to move funds from riskier areas."

Market views on Fed moves shift quickly. Chances of a rate cut in September now near 90% as key reports and Fed talks come up.

Conclusion

The July jobs report shows that the U.S. economy slows down. This news makes policy makers and investors watch close. A full recession is not a sure call, yet growth seems set to drop in the coming months. Tariff fees and lower spending add tension to the scene.

Stay tuned as more news comes in to help guide you through these uncertain times.

Goldman Sachs Predicts Housing Market to Drag Down Economic Growth by 8% in Coming Months

News

Housing Market to Remain Weakest Sector of U.S. Economy in Second Half of 2025, Goldman Sachs Predicts

Published August 4, 2025 — 9:05 AM EDT

The U.S. housing market shows slow growth. Goldman Sachs sees the market drag the economy in the year’s second half. Jan Hatzius, chief economist, states residential investment will drop by 8% compared with fall 2024. Each word links closely to its neighbor to help you read with ease.

Key Factors Behind Housing Market Weakness

• High mortgage costs squeeze buyers. Buyers pay more, and they sometimes pay upfront to lower their interest rate. This choice shows that home costs hurt purchase power.

• Fewer new families form as immigration slows. Measures by President Donald Trump on illegal crossings lower the pace at which households come together.

• Job data shows weak hiring. The July report on nonfarm payrolls falls short. Revised figures for May and June also count lower job growth.

Multifamily and Single-Family Construction Trends

• Builders of multifamily apartments hold back on new projects. Developer worries keep new apartment complexes low.

• Starts on single-family homes feel the pinch. Fewer new homes begin construction as builder hope declines.

Residential Investment as a Drag on Growth

Goldman Sachs sees building, renovating, and home repairs pull down economic growth. This part of the market moves jobs, spending, and related work. The slow pace sends ripples through other economic parts.

Economic Context and Outlook

Raising a broad concern, Goldman Sachs fits the slow housing market into the wider U.S. picture. Some parts of the economy run strong, but weak home buying power, fewer new families, and low hiring pull down activity. Policy makers and investors watch these shifts closely.

For those who need stable homes—prospective buyers, real estate builders, and construction teams—this news signals tougher days ahead without a clear fix soon.