Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Expresses Caution on Rate Cuts Amid Data Blackout from Government Shutdown
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee Voices Caution on Further Rate Cuts Amid Government Shutdown
November 6, 2025 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke on rate cuts during the shutdown. He spoke with clear concern. His words show a link between missing inflation data and the need for care. Goolsbee noted that key inflation figures are hidden by the shutdown. He spoke with CNBC about risks when rate cuts come without clear signs of price changes.
Inflation Data Blackout Fuels Caution
Goolsbee’s worry grows from lost inflation numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not post the October consumer price index, which we expected next week. The CPI helps us see the move of prices.
The BLS did give us the September numbers because Social Security rules needed them. That data shows inflation near a 3% yearly rise. This rise exceeds the Fed’s aim of a 2% change. The Commerce Department has not yet shared its data on spending costs. That makes it hard to see the full picture.
Goolsbee said, “If there are problems developing on the inflation side, it’s going to be a fair amount of time before we see that.” His words tie missing data to delays in understanding our economic state.
Labor Market Remains Stable According to Chicago Fed
Even when inflation numbers are missing, the Chicago Fed shows a steady job scene. Their dashboard shows the unemployment rate at 4.36% in October. This mark was one point higher than in September. It also shows hiring and firings stay near the same rates.
Goolsbee spoke of the clear signals from job data. He pointed out that jobs show changes fast. This clear job link makes him slow on fast rate cuts that depend on recent inflation numbers. In the months before the shutdown, core inflation went at a 3.6% yearly rate.
Balancing Act: Medium-Term Rate Outlook
Goolsbee stands for lower rates over time. He also wants care when data is thin. He said, “Medium-run, I’m not hawkish on rates. I believe that the settling point for rates is going to be a fair bit below where it is today. When it’s foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down.”
His words tie future cuts to the need for clear figures before we act.
Upcoming Federal Reserve Decisions
Goolsbee will vote at the December FOMC meeting. At that time, members will decide on more rate cuts after recent ones. Later in 2026, he will shift to an alternate role. He is set to return as a voter in 2027. —
For investors, policymakers, and analysts, Goolsbee’s careful tone signals the hard work of managing policy when the government runs short of data. His words tie clear data to the need for measured moves while keeping the growth path steady amid uncertain times.
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