Economic Data Drought: What to Expect as the Government Reopens and Backlogs Clear
Economic Data Releases Paused by Government Shutdown: When to Expect Key Reports
The U.S. government shutdown delays key economic data. It holds back payroll numbers, job figures, and inflation measures. Congress works to end the shutdown. All eyes now turn to when data will resume and what the figures may show about the economy.
Government Shutdown Impact on Economic Data
Federal agencies compile and release economic statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce now work in a limited way. Their usual reports on payrolls, price levels, retail sales, income, and other economic markers for September and October now delay.
Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker noted a backlog in a recent note:
“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October. Though the shutdown nears its end, the agencies need time to address the backlog of releases.”
Timeline for Data Release Resumption
The government is set to reopen soon. The Senate passed a stop-gap spending bill and now awaits the President’s signature. When the government reopens, agencies will work to publish the delayed data.
- Early next week: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will share an updated schedule for delayed reports.
- October Jobs Report: This report may appear soon, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week.
- November reports: Payroll and inflation data might face another week’s delay.
Key Upcoming Economic Reports Delayed by Shutdown
The delayed reports include:
- Nonfarm Payrolls – a measure of job trends.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) – tests of price changes.
- Personal Spending and Income – views of consumer activity.
- Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders – signs of product demand.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a check of quarterly growth.
- Employment Cost Index and JOLTS – views of labor market details.
What the Data Might Show
Analysts believe the released figures will show a slowing job market and high inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the October payroll report to mark a loss of around 50,000 jobs. Other figures also point to a cooling market.
Inflation stays above the 2% target, yet officials see slow moderation. At a news meeting on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said:
“Labor market conditions are cooling slowly, and inflation stays quite high.”
He added that private-sector data from the shutdown does not change the overall view since September.
Broader Economic Growth Outlook
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows third-quarter growth near 4%. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter growth forecast to 1.3%. This view puts the economy at about a 2% annual gain in 2025. ### Final Thoughts
Short-term delays in data raise problems for policymakers, investors, and analysts. Still, the main trends in jobs, inflation, and growth hold steady. When agencies resume work, clearer details about the economy will come forth to help in making sound decisions.
As of November 11, 2025, readers can expect a gradual return of key economic data in the days following the government’s reopening, with reports expected to confirm the trends seen during the data freeze.
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