Labor Market Crisis: Hiring Hits Record Low as Economists Navigate Shutdown Data Blackout
Hiring Hits Lowest Level Since 2009 Amid Government Shutdown; Economists Turn to Alternative Data
October 2, 2025 — New reports show hiring at its lowest point since 2009. The government shutdown delays key work reports. That delay makes experts use other data to check job trends in the country.
Labor Market Trends Amid Data Gap
Two reports came out on Thursday. One report comes from the Chicago Federal Reserve. The other comes from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Both reports help us see work trends when the usual government reports are not available.
• The Chicago Fed’s dashboard shows that the jobless rate stayed near 4.34% in September. This rate is almost 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. • The same report notes that layoffs stayed near 2.1%. However, hiring dropped to 45.2% in September, down 0.4 percentage points from August. This drop shows fewer new jobs start.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Report: Fewer Hires, More Job Cuts
The firm also notes a 37% drop in announced layoffs in September. This figure marks a 26% decrease compared with one year earlier. Yet, the total planned furloughs are at their top since 2020. The first three quarters show 946,426 announced job cuts. That total is 24% higher than in all of 2024. In contrast, new hires in 2025 reached only 204,939. That figure marks a 58% drop from the same period a year ago. It is the lowest level seen since 2009. The 2009 period had many problems after a financial crisis.
Andy Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert at the firm, said many job cuts happened before. He noted that past times with many job cuts occurred during recessions or in 2005 and 2006 when automations took jobs in manufacturing and technology.
Effects of the Government Shutdown on Job Data
Under normal rules, the Labor Department would release weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the monthly nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The shutdown, now in its second day, stops these reports for now.
Experts and Federal Reserve leaders must use new data from groups like the Chicago Fed and private firms to see job trends. These new sources help fill the gap left by missing government reports.
Looking Ahead
The delay in the usual job statistics makes it hard to track the economy at a key time. As new data arrive from other groups, many will watch to see if the drop in hiring means long-term problems or a short pause.
For more updates on market and economic conditions, visit CNBC’s Economy section.
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