Military Pay Deadline Could Push Trump and Congress Towards Shutdown Resolution
Military Pay Date Puts Pressure on Trump and Congress Amid Government Shutdown
Washington, D.C., October 6, 2025 – The government shutdown drags on with no fix in view. The military pay date on October 15 now weighs heavy. Nearly 1.3 million active military members stand at its center. Missed pay risks sparking public anger and pushes lawmakers toward a deal.
Military Pay Deadline as a Key “Forcing Event”
Goldman Sachs economists share a note with their clients. They point out that the pay day on Oct. 15 may push both sides toward a compromise. Their note links this deadline with a chance to end the shutdown by mid-October. Betting sites like Polymarket show a 71% chance that the impasse lasts past Oct. 14. If the pay date passes without funds, many will feel upset. Lawmakers may then back a short-term fix called a continuing resolution. This plan would keep the government running while talks go on.
Wide Impact of the Shutdown
The shutdown hits more than just military pay. It stops important data that officials need. It may also slow airport security when TSA workers miss shifts. Policy expert Ed Mills at Raymond James says late military pay, disrupted TSA work, or postponed mortgage help may push the sides to change course. He sees a brief continuing resolution as most likely but admits a longer shutdown is still a risk.
Other Deadlines to Watch
Officials and experts note more dates that may add pressure:
- October 13: Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program benefits may end.
- November 1: Obamacare health insurance open enrollment begins.
- November 21: Congress starts its Thanksgiving recess during busy travel times.
Pimco analysts remind us that starting a shutdown is much easier than ending one. This shutdown, the first full one since 2013, now proves hard to resolve.
Political Standoff and Few Signs of Change
Senate votes are scheduled, yet experts expect little progress soon. President Trump warns that ongoing funding problems could turn temporary layoffs into lasting job cuts. Both parties hold firm, and key decisions stall. Goldman Sachs economists see military pay worries as a push toward a deal. Still, other outcomes remain on the table:
- The Defense Department might pay troops with its own plans even if funds are low.
- Congress could pass money solely to cover military pay while leaving the shutdown unresolved.
The October 15 pay date now stands as a key moment that may shift the balance toward ending the funding deadlock.
Summary: The shutdown faces a defining moment with the October 15 military pay date. Missing these payments may stir enough public and political force for Trump and Congress to set a budget deal or pass a short-term fix. With steady positions and few signs of quick change, experts warn that the shutdown might last longer, affecting more services and the public overall.
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