Navigating Trade Winds: China’s Export Surge and Its Impact on APEC Summit Talks

Navigating Trade Winds: China's Export Surge and Its Impact on APEC Summit Talks

China Export Boom Sets Stage for High-Stakes Trade Talks at APEC Summit

By Bob Mason | Published: October 14, 2025

China’s exports soared this September. Exports grew 8.3% over last year. This growth passed August’s 4.4% rise. U.S. tariffs stayed in place. Imports climbed 7.4%, too. These facts point to strong local demand and a trade pace that stays firm heading into Q4. ### Export Realignment Mitigating U.S. Tariff Impact

Data from CN Wire shows exports from January to September 2025 grew across many partners. ASEAN saw a 9.6% increase. The European Union grew by 5.2%. Exports to South Korea rose 2.0% and those to Japan climbed 5.9%. Yet, exports to the United States fell 14.9%. China shifts its exports to Africa, ASEAN countries, the EU, and Japan. This shift fills the gap left by a drop in U.S. demand.

Brian Tycangco at Stansberry Research said:
"China’s trade bounced back in September. Exports jumped 8.3% and imports by 7.4%. The trade surplus shrank a bit. President Trump’s trade war does not harm China’s export work because sellers now find new markets for products."

The World Bank now predicts China’s 2025 GDP will grow by 4.8%—up from April’s forecast of 4.0% and near the official 5% target.

Soybeans and Rare Earths Highlight Trade Sensitivities

Trade talks now focus on soybeans and rare earth elements. Soybean imports hit a record 12.87 million metric tons in September. This result may open room for progress in farm trade discussions.

In the week before China’s Golden Week, President Trump said Beijing cut back on soybean purchases to use them as a tool in talks. He spoke up in support of local farmers but did not add new tariffs then.

China then tightened controls on rare earth exports. These materials serve high-tech production. Chinese officials said there was no complete ban and that civilian licenses stay available. Still, shipments dropped 31% in September and 11% so far this year. These drops add to trade strains.

Domestic Implications: Labor Market and Consumption

Domestic issues mix with trade gains. In September, Chinese manufacturers cut staff for the third time in four months. Rising wages might spark more consumer spending. Unemployment climbed to 5.3% in August from 5.0% in June. Retail sales grew 3.4% in August compared to 4.8% in June. If export strength holds, companies may hire more and spending could rise—a change seen as key to China’s recovery.

Non-U.S. Trade Accelerating

China now moves exports beyond the United States. Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book noted that shipments to the U.S. dropped 27% for six straight months, while exports to other markets jumped 14.8%—their fastest gain since March 2023. Exports to Africa surged 56% and those to Latin America rebounded by 15.2%. This mix shields China’s trade efforts from U.S. tariffs and binds it tighter to global markets.

Market Response and Outlook Ahead of APEC Summit

Easing trade strains lifted mainland stock markets on October 14. The CSI 300 index rose by 0.89%, and the Shanghai Composite increased by 0.68%. Both indices approached their 2025 highs. News of a possible U.S.-China trade deal and steady growth has pushed gains. Year-to-date figures show the CSI 300 up about 17.9% and the Shanghai Composite by 16.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 29%. Still, analysts point out that trade frictions add risks and keep global markets alert.

Looking Forward: Trade Talks at APEC Summit

At the APEC summit, trade talks will focus on key issues. Strong data gives China a firmer stance. Topics such as soybean trade and rare earth export rules are on the agenda. Markets and policymakers now watch to see if talks will ease strains or stir further issues. What happens next may change global trade patterns and economic forecasts in the coming months.


For ongoing updates on markets, trade, and economic forecasts, stay tuned to FXEmpire.

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