OECD Upgrades Growth Forecasts: U.S. Economy Shows Resilience Amid Tariff Challenges
OECD Raises U.S. and Global Economic Growth Forecasts Amid Stronger-Than-Expected Performance
The OECD has raised its economic growth numbers for the U.S. and for world markets. It sees strong work by key markets in early 2025. This change shows a more positive view than before. Ongoing trade disputes and higher tariffs still add strain.
Stronger Global Growth Forecasts
In its report on Tuesday, the OECD raised its global GDP growth stake to 3.2% for 2025. This is more than the 2.9% listed in June. The group now expects a slight dip next year, keeping a 2.9% rate for 2026. For context, global growth hit 3.3% in 2024. The report links this rise to improved work in many world markets. The OECD said that growth stayed strong through early 2025. It pointed to steady industrial work and active trade, even as political issues stay.
U.S. Growth Outlook Improved
U.S. growth forecasts also went up. The OECD now sees a 1.8% rise in U.S. GDP for 2025, up from 1.6% in June. Still, this is lower than 2024’s 2.8% rate. The rate for 2026 is set at 1.5%.
The growth boost comes from:
• Big investments in AI tech
• Support from sound fiscal plans
• Steady work by consumers and workers
Trade and Tariff Impacts Still Loom
The report warns of many risks. New tariffs, which started in August 2025, have not shown all their effects. The U.S. set high fees, with an average of 19.5%, a rate not seen since 1933. These tariffs hit many imports, with some fees at 50%.
The OECD noted that companies have cut costs by lowering profits. Still, these rising fees now affect:
• What consumers pay
• Company buy decisions
• Worker job conditions
In several regions, labor trends show softer work markets. Unemployment is up and job offers fall. Unclear trade policies also slow down investments and trade flows.
Inflation and Market Risks
The organization now sees headline inflation in G20 nations at 3.4% for 2025. This is a small drop from 3.6% in June. In the U.S., the inflation rate was trimmed to 2.7% from 3.2%.
But risks stay that might change these numbers:
• More tariff hikes may come
• Rising price pressures might appear
• Some nations face hard fiscal times
• Financial markets, including crypto links, may waver
Potential Upsides
Two opportunities may push growth even further:
• Fewer trade limits could clear up uncertainties and boost trade
• Faster AI tech work may add to productivity and new ideas
Summary
The OECD’s new view shows a strong start in global markets during early 2025. Emerging markets and tech investments in the U.S. have worked well. Trade problems and tariffs still pose risks. Yet, easing limits and rapid tech work may help keep growth steady in the years to come.
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