Skyrocketing Job Market Anxieties: New York Fed Survey Reveals Record Low Worker Confidence in Job-Moving Opportunities

Worker Confidence in Finding a New Job Hits Record Low, New York Fed Survey Shows

The New York Federal Reserve released the Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday. The survey shows worker confidence is low. Here, workers believe they stand only a 44.9% probability to find a new job if they lose the one they have. This drop of 5.8 percentage points from July marks the survey’s lowest level. The survey has run since June 2013. ### Lowest Job-Finding Probability Since 2013

Workers once quit with high hopes during the "Great Resignation" in 2021-22. At that time, nearly 4.5 million quits occurred each month. In July 2025, only 3.2 million quits happened. The data, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows a decline of more than 5% from the same period in 2024. ### Labor Market Dynamics and Slowed Mobility

Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, said,
"Consumers feel low about job-finding chances. It is hard to get work now. Employers hire little, and workers stay in their current jobs for security."

During the pandemic, many workers moved between jobs. Jobs were available at a rate of two openings per worker in some sectors. Now, the market slows down:

Hiring has dropped a lot.
More workers wait than there are job slots.
Employers check costs before adding new staff.

As a consequence, few workers leave on their own. The Fed survey finds:

The chance of leaving a job in the next year is near 18.9%.
Expectations that the unemployment rate climbs in 12 months are at 39.1%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than in July and above the 12-month average.

Recent Labor Market Weakness

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared new numbers this week. In August, only 22,000 new jobs appeared. This total falls short of the expected 75,000. June’s job growth was revised to a loss of 13,000 jobs. This marks the first drop since December 2020. The official unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, while a broader measure, which counts discouraged and underemployed workers, rose to 8.1%. These levels last appeared in October 2021. ### Market Expectations and Fed Policy Outlook

Many analysts and market watchers see signs of a soft labor market. Some predict the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the meeting on September 17. This change would be the first since December 2024. The move aims to spur economic activity and help the labor market.

With the labor market facing these issues, worker sentiment and confidence stay key for a clear view of the broader economic path.

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