Tag Archive for: Economic News

Fed in the Fog: Inflation Data Drought Impacts Rate Decisions Amid Government Shutdown

Fed Lacks Key Inflation Data Ahead of December Rate Decision as BLS Cancels October CPI Release

Washington, D.C., November 21, 2025 — The U.S. Federal Reserve finds itself without needed inflation data as it nears its December 10 interest rate decision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, leaving the Fed with a gap in its price measure.

The October CPI report was set for release on November 7. A government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting key survey data. This loss means the Fed does not have a strong measure of inflation while it sets monetary policy.

Why Was the October CPI Canceled?

The BLS explained on its website that the shutdown made data collection in person and via phone impossible for October. The agency relies on these methods to track price changes. Some information comes from online sources and household surveys, but without close, in-person data the report would be incomplete. This is why the BLS chose to cancel the report instead of providing a partial one.

Impact On Upcoming CPI and Inflation Measures

Missing October data affects the November CPI report. The report is now delayed until December 18—one week after the Fed meets on December 10. This delay makes it harder for the Fed to see the latest price trends when it makes a decision.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also has a change. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s favored gauge—will not be released on November 26. No new release date is given for this key measure.

Fed Officials Concerned About “Data Fog”

Fed policymakers share worry over the missing data. After a late October meeting, which led to a 0.25% rate cut, the minutes showed concern over making choices with incomplete data.

At that meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down. … There’s a chance that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving." Powell stressed that the data gap is temporary and promised that the Fed would study all available numbers.

Some Fed officials keep a hopeful view:

  • New York Fed President John Williams shared on Friday that the bank might still act, hinting that more rate cuts could come soon.
  • Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that even with the missing data, the bank has enough to guide its choices.

What This Means for Markets and Monetary Policy

Missing timely inflation data adds uncertainty as the Fed meets on December 10. The market usually looks to inflation data and Fed signals as a pair. Without fresh numbers, investors and decision makers may choose a slower pace.

The Fed now must balance worries over rising prices and steady growth with fewer numbers at hand. This gap raises the importance of upcoming data and new Fed updates.

For more detailed coverage and expert analysis on the Fed’s monetary policy and inflation trends, subscribe to CNBC PRO and join the Investing Club.

Summary of Key Points:

  • The BLS canceled the October CPI release due to the shutdown stopping key data collection.
  • November CPI data is now set for December 18, after the Fed’s December 10 rate decision.
  • The PCE price index release is delayed without a new date.
  • Fed leaders worry about a “data fog” that makes policy decisions harder.
  • Fed officials have mixed views on how much the missing data will affect their actions.
  • Market watchers wait for updated inflation numbers after the Fed meeting.

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Inside Fairfax Financial’s High-Stakes Bet: The Bigger ‘Big Short’ That Paid Off

Inside Fairfax Financial’s Even Bigger ‘Big Short’: How Prem Watsa’s Team Anticipated the Financial Crisis and Netted Billions

By David Thomas, Special to Financial Post
Published November 21, 2025

In early 2007, Fairfax Financial took a crucial step. CEO Prem Watsa led the company. He gathered a small, expert committee around one table. They met to review the best investment ideas. Watsa asked, “What’s the best idea we’ve got?”

Brian Bradstreet, Fairfax’s bond expert, showed doubt. He knew the company held a risky bet. They were shorting the growing mortgage securities bubble. This move cost nearly $250 million on paper. Still, the trade acted as an insurance policy for Fairfax’s capital. It promised a large gain if the market fell as predicted.

Brian’s worry was clear. Many companies would cancel a trade like this after such losses. Yet Fairfax had a history of early, contrarian moves. Their approach favored discipline and patience.

A History of Contrarian Calls

Fairfax has a long record of bold bets. In the 1980s, they left Japan’s inflated stock market before the crash. They missed some gains when the market soared but avoided deeper trouble. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the firm lost money by betting against tech stocks. When the bubble burst later, Fairfax earned large rewards. This pattern of pain for future gain was repeating as the financial crisis neared.

The Psychological Toll of Waiting

Investing in a bubble is hard. First, you spot a problem. Next, you place a bet. Then, you wait. Fairfax watched its position shrink as losses grew each quarter. Doubts crept in. They wondered, “How long should we hold on?” and “When should we give up?”

Even famous investors have struggled. Julian Robertson closed Tiger Management during the tech bubble after two years of failed shorting. Laurence Tisch of Loews Corporation quit after losing $2.5 billion trying to short the same bubble—just months before it burst.

Doubling Down on the Big Short

During tense meetings, Francis Chou broke the silence. He said, “Buy more credit default insurance.” With clear conviction, the team bought extra protection. They had already spent $341 million. By mid-2007, they faced $211 million in paper losses. The timing was uncertain, yet they believed the financial bubble would burst.

By the summer of 2007, their forecast began to hold true. The mortgage crisis surged and turned into a full financial meltdown by fall 2008. Watsa described it as a “1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year storm.” While most investors ran for safety, Fairfax’s contrarian bet paid off. It turned into a multibillion-dollar windfall.

A Safe Harbour Amidst the Financial Storm

In letters to shareholders, Watsa noted how many risks erupted at once. He also mentioned that few investments could still call themselves safe. Thanks to clear foresight and firm commitment, Fairfax not only survived the crisis but prospered while others struggled. This episode underlines Fairfax’s investing style: clear analysis, the courage to defy market trends, and the patience to see plans through long uncertainty. Although many lost in the 2007 crisis, Fairfax Financial’s Big Short stands as a powerful investment story. It shows the rewards that come when one dares to think differently and withstand short-term pain for long-term gain.

About the Author:
David Thomas is a contributing writer who focuses on finance and investment stories. This article is adapted from The Fairfax Way, which details Fairfax Financial’s investment philosophy and history.

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Canada’s Banking Overhaul: New Proposal to Ease Lending Rules and Boost Economic Growth

Canadian Banking Regulator Proposes Easier Lending Rules for Banks to Boost Economy and Competition

By Naimul Karim, Financial Post — November 20, 2025

Canada’s top banking regulator, OSFI, now suggests softer lending rules. OSFI wants to free bank capital. This change aims to boost lending and investments. It helps the economy grow in a fast-changing financial world.

Proposed Changes to Risk Weights

OSFI has new plans. The bank must now check loan risks in a different way. OSFI will lower risk weights for loans to small and medium businesses. The weight drops from 85% to 75%. Regulators use risk weights to mark how likely a loan is to default. A high risk weight forces banks to hold more capital. Lower weights mean banks can use capital for lending and other tasks.

OSFI also sees lower risk in low-rise residential projects. It plans to drop their base risk weight from 150% to 130%. For loans that meet at least 75% pre-sales, risk weights drop further. This step gives a boost to real estate loans while keeping risks in check.

Economic and Competitive Rationale

Jacqueline Friedland, OSFI’s executive director, keeps risks managed and banks flexible. She said these precise changes open more capital for loans and investments. At the same time, the government pushes for more competition in Canada’s finance market. Recent budgets now support smaller, alternative banks. Ottawa cuts fees and makes switching chequing accounts easier. These steps could change Canada’s banking scene for the better.

OSFI also starts a 90-day public check. This period lets banks and the public share ideas. The goal is to ease lending rules without adding extra risk.

Banks Have Room to Lend More

OSFI Superintendent Peter Routledge said banks now hold strong capital reserves. He claimed banks might lend nearly $1 trillion more. This amount is large when compared with Canada’s roughly $3-trillion economy. Routledge noted that these buffers should not sit idle. He said banks should use them to fuel growth. More lending to businesses and customers can help during trade disputes and other challenges.

Next Steps

Industry experts and the public can now review the new ideas. Their feedback will help OSFI shape the final rules. Draft regulations may come by spring 2026. Banks may soon have more room to support new business and consumer credit. This change can spark economic growth and make the banking scene more competitive.

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Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates for Maintaining ‘Barely Restrictive’ Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates Keeping Interest Rates at ‘Barely Restrictive’ Levels

November 20, 2025 — Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack spoke on Thursday. She signaled that the cycle of rate cuts might soon end. In her CNBC Squawk on the Street interview, she pointed to a need for a small extra pull on policy. Her words tie the idea of a tighter stance to meeting the Fed’s inflation target.

Current Monetary Policy: “Barely Restrictive, If at All”

Hammack labels current monetary policy as “barely restrictive, if at all.” She makes clear that the bank must keep policy tight enough. Her words join the idea of slow inflation growth with the aim of reaching 2%.

“Right now, to me, monetary policy is barely restrictive, if at all, and I think we need to make sure that we’re maintaining that somewhat restrictive stance,” Hammack told CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

Interest Rate Levels and Economic Impact

Hammack ties the federal funds rate of 3.75% to 4% to what is seen as a neutral position. This rate and its closeness join to a view that extra cuts do not help now.
Her remarks come as market views change. The FOMC meets next on December 9-10. The market, which had tied a third rate cut to the cycle, now shows a 60% chance that rates will stay the same. This view comes from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Divergent Views Within the Fed

Minutes from the October Fed meeting show splits among members. Those minutes join views that balance inflation risks with soft spots in the labor market.
Hammack, who usually shows a strong view on inflation, favors higher rates. Her stance keeps a tight grip on price rises. Still, she shows care for workers in her region.

Insights from the Cleveland Region: Inflation’s Impact on Workers

Hammack shares chats with local workers and business owners. She ties low hiring and low firing rates to a soft labor market. Yet, she links real pain to inflation cutting the buying power of wages.

“What we hear from the workers is that they’re holding on to their jobs for dear life, if they have them,” Hammack said. “But what I also heard … was that the money that they have coming in is just not stretching as far as it used to. What used to cost $30 now costs $50, and so that inflationary pressure is still very salient for them.”

Mixed Signals from Employment Data

On the day Hammack spoke, the U.S. Labor Department put out the September nonfarm payrolls report. Her words join dual messages: payroll growth went strong, yet the jobless rate rose a bit. This mix ties together the ideas of recovery and current troubles in the labor market.

As a voting FOMC member in 2025, Beth Hammack’s words carry weight in making policy. Her push to keep rates near current levels joins caution on inflation with a care for steady growth.

Investors and policymakers will watch the December meeting. They wait to see how the Fed will work with these shared pressures. For now, Hammack’s words tie the need for steady watchfulness with the fight against rising inflation without loosening policy too fast.

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September 2025 Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Surprises with 119,000 New Jobs as Unemployment Edges Up to 4.4%

U.S. Jobs Report for September 2025 Reveals 119,000 New Positions; Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4%

After a long gap caused by a record 44-day government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report on November 20, 2025. This report gives a clear view of the U.S. labor market as the year comes to an end.

Key Highlights:

  • Nonfarm payrolls grew by 119,000 in September. This rise beat the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000 as numbers connect closely.
  • Earlier data now shows fewer jobs. August changed from a 4,000 job gain to a loss.
  • The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
  • When including discouraged workers and those in part-time jobs for economic reasons, the wider unemployment figure dropped to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% each month and by 3.8% over the year. This rise went slightly above forecasts.

Context and Analysis

This report is the first update on employment since early September numbers appeared on September 5, 2025. The 44-day shutdown stopped key agencies like the BLS and the Bureau of Economic Analysis from collecting data. The gap made economic predictions and policy steps hard to decide.

Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, said, “September’s jobs report shows the labor market was strong before the shutdown. It beat payroll estimates, yet the picture stays cloudy with August jobs turning to a loss and unemployment increasing.” His words remind us that the data shows conditions from two months back and may not mark today’s scene.

Sector Performance

The hiring scene in September shows clear patterns:

  • Health care added 43,000 jobs.
  • Bars and restaurants contributed 37,000 jobs.
  • Social assistance saw 14,000 more jobs.

Some sectors did lose jobs:

  • Transportation and warehousing fell by 25,000 jobs.
  • The federal government employment dropped by 3,000 that month. In the year, federal jobs declined by 97,000.
  • Professional and business services lost 20,000 jobs, a drop that included 16,000 fewer temporary help services.

Household Survey Insights

The household survey, which connects the numbers of employed and active workers, shows a better view:

  • The count of employed persons grew by 251,000.
  • The labor force grew by 470,000, reaching 171.2 million workers.
  • The share of the population in the labor force moved up to 62.4%, its highest number since May 2025.
  • Workers in full-time jobs increased by 673,000. At the same time, part-time work fell by 573,000.

Market and Policy Implications

After the report came out, stock market futures moved up while Treasury yields fell. Investors connect these moves to a balanced economy, with steady job growth and a small rise in unemployment.

Market experts watch the mixed signals with care. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said, “Some parts of the report show strong payroll growth, which points to a firm economy, while other parts, like higher unemployment and slower wage gains, keep one hopeful for a possible Fed cut in December.”

The Federal Reserve meets on December 9-10. After a couple of rate cuts in September and October, officials now face a tough choice. With September’s labor data in hand, they see one final big jobs report before they set their next move.

Upcoming Data Releases

The BLS plans to release both October and November employment data on December 9, 2025. Note that October’s unemployment rate will not be there due to data issues from the shutdown.

Additional Government Data

A Labor Department update notes that for the week ending November 15, initial jobless claims came in at 220,000. This number is 8,000 below the previous week and sits under the forecast of 227,000 claims. These numbers form a steady view of the labor market in November.

In summary, the September 2025 jobs report, though delayed, shows a labor market that grows at a steady pace. The report sets out clear shifts in different job sectors and shows the challenges for those who make policy, all amid some data gaps and economic unknowns. More data in December will give a clearer picture of U.S. employment and the wider economy.

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Anticipating the September Jobs Report: What to Expect as Markets Await Key Insights

September Jobs Report to Be Released Thursday: What to Expect

The government shutdown stopped the release of labor market data for a long stretch. Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will put out the September nonfarm payrolls report this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report ends a two-month break in key job numbers that left investors, economists, and policymakers with few official figures.

What the September Report May Reveal

The report will likely show a gain of about 50,000 jobs in both public and private work. This number is higher than the 22,000 jobs announced in August. The data shows some market growth but still hints at overall weakness.

Other estimates based on Dow Jones consensus include:

  • An unemployment rate of 4.3%,
  • Average hourly earnings that go up by 0.3% for the month,
  • A 3.7% boost in average earnings over the year—all close to August’s trends.

Context and Limits in the Data

Since the data belongs to September, it does not give a full current view for policymaking. Fed Chair Jerome Powell compared the policy setting to “driving in the fog.” He warned that interest rate decisions should not be made too quickly when all the numbers are not in yet.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, said, "Both the September report and the changes to July and August data might show a slightly better outlook than many think, but not by much. The job numbers are steady, just like the wider economy."

Impact of the Government Shutdown on Data Releases

The shutdown forced changes in the BLS schedule. The changes are:

  • No separate October jobs report; October data will come with November’s report, now delayed until December 16,
  • No unemployment rate for October because household data was not fully collected,
  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September and October will appear together on December 9. This delay means a clear look at the job situation may not come until early February 2026, according to Brusuelas.

Alternative Data and the Fed’s View

When official information was halted, economists turned to private data like:

  • ADP’s tracking of private payrolls,
  • Layoff figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas,
  • Other job indicators.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke recently. He said there is enough available data to guide decisions. He even mentioned that a rate cut might be in store come December.

Predictions and Revisions

Goldman Sachs analysts are more upbeat. They project an 80,000 job rise in September. However, they expect that October will see a drop of 50,000 jobs as a federal program linked to layoffs from the Department of Government Efficiency comes to an end.

The report will also update July and August payrolls data—numbers that may show stronger job gains than first recorded.

In summary, Thursday’s September jobs report brings long-awaited official numbers after many weeks without them. Because the data is from a past month and has its limits, the report may only give a partial view of the job market. Investors, economists, and policymakers will need to wait patiently as they work through a time of ongoing uncertainty.

Stay tuned to CNBC for live coverage and detailed analysis when the September jobs report is out.

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Fed Minutes Reveal Divided Opinions on Future Rate Cuts Amid Economic Concerns

Fed Minutes Reveal Division Over October Rate Cut and Doubts About December Move

Washington, D.C., November 19, 2025 — In October, the Federal Open Market Committee met with clear differences. The officials debated if they should cut interest rates. They faced the challenge of a cooling labor market and high price levels. The minutes show that leaders did not agree on how to balance these needs.

October Rate Cut Approved Amid Mixed Views

The committee cut the rate by 0.25 points. They lowered it to a band of 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. The close vote, rare for the Fed, hints at two main views. One set of officials feels that current rules still slows growth. Another set sees strong economic activity that makes the rules too loose. The leaders stuck close to one another on their word links as they studied new data.

Debate Over December Rate Cut

The documents note deep splits on a possible rate cut in December. A few participants thought another cut might be needed if numbers fit their views. Many raised doubts and warned against cutting rates further in 2025. In Fed language, the word “many” means a larger group than “several.” This choice of word shows that most members lean against a December cut. Since not all voting members join the discussion, the exact strength of the view remains unclear.

Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that a December move is not a done deal. This comment shifts from market views that expected a near-certain cut. The CME Group FedWatch tool set the chance of a December cut at about 33% by Wednesday. For January, the probability rose to roughly 66%.

Divergent Perspectives Within the Committee

The split among officials falls into clear lines:

  • Doves – Governors Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman back cuts. They tie their views to keeping the labor market growing as hiring cools.
  • Hawks – Regional Fed Presidents Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City), Susan Collins (Boston), and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) worry that easing rules too soon may keep prices high.
  • Moderates – Chair Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams push for a slow, careful look at future numbers before any move.

One official—likely Miran—saw a larger half-point cut as the path forward, while President Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.

Data Challenges Amid Government Shutdown

The committee did not have a full view of the economy. A 44-day government shutdown held up key reports on jobs and prices. Powell compared the condition to “driving in the fog” with missing signs. Governor Waller countered that enough data still sits with the Fed to shape its plan.

Balance Sheet Policy Adjustments

The minutes also show that the Fed will pause reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities from December. This pause comes after the process cut more than $2.5 trillion from the balance sheet, which now sits near $6.6 trillion. With the pause, tightening on this side of the policy becomes milder.

Summary:

  • The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in October amid different views.
  • Doubt now surrounds a move in December.
  • The committee splits among inflation-focused hawks, job-focused doves, and cautious moderates.
  • A government shutdown delayed clear economic data.
  • The pace of reducing holdings will slow starting in December.

As the economic path stays unclear, investors and policymakers watch new data and Fed signs to see how policy will shift in 2026. —

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Unpacking the U.S.-Saudi Investments and Defense Deals: A $1 Trillion Promise and F-35 Controversies

From $1 Trillion Spending to F-35s: U.S.-Saudi Pledges Are Not Done Deals Yet

Washington, D.C. — U.S. President Donald Trump met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Washington. Trump greeted MBS with warmth. Their meeting mixed defense plans with economic talks. The leaders spoke of a $1 trillion investment and the sale of American F-35 fighter jets. Experts warn these promises do not yet become firm deals.

Landmark Agreements and Investment Pledges

At the meeting, both leaders signed a pact on defense. They met to discuss security and civil nuclear energy. The White House stressed one point: Saudi Arabia promises to raise a $600 billion U.S. investment to $1 trillion. The administration called the change a sign of strong trust and fast progress. No dates or details were given on when the money will flow. Some experts noted that Saudi Arabia produced about $1.07 trillion of goods and services in 2023. This fact makes many ask if the nation can meet such a high figure soon.

Paul Donovan from GBS Global Wealth Management said,
"These pledges come up often on the world stage, even without strict checks. The promise is as large as almost a full year of Saudi output, which makes it hard to trust it soon."

The Controversial F-35 Fighter Jet Sale

The meeting also brought up a possible deal for up to 48 American F-35 stealth jets. A White House note said that President Trump gave a go-ahead for a big defense sale that includes future F-35 deliveries. The plan would keep American defense production busy. Still, the exact jet numbers, delivery dates, and sale terms are not clear.

This planned sale has caused debate. Israel is now the only Middle Eastern country to use the F-35. The long history between Saudi Arabia and Israel adds to the worry. The Israeli Defense Forces fear that Saudi jets could weaken Israel’s air power and change the balance of power in the region.

During one press talk, Trump said, "We’ll be selling F-35s," while praising both nations as strong partners. He added, “I know you might want to see smaller planes, but I believe both should get the best we have.”

Diplomatic and Legislative Hurdles Ahead

Some experts point out that handing over F-35s to Saudi Arabia before Riyadh fixes its ties with Israel may seem early. Bradley Bowman from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said,
"Washington must fix worries about Riyadh and China. It must follow rules about Israel’s military edge and wait for closer ties between Riyadh and Israel before any jet sale."

Paul Musgrave of Georgetown University Qatar said that naming such deals is one thing. Getting the jets to work in Saudi Arabia is another matter. He warned that problems with technology rules and needed votes in Congress—where lawmakers usually side with Israel—will slow things down.

A Visit Shadowed by Controversy

The trip was the first U.S. visit for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since the 2018 death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence found signs that the crown prince may have approved the act, though Riyadh denies it. This issue made the meeting more complex. Still, both Trump and MBS presented the talks as a step forward for U.S.-Saudi ties.

In summary, headlines now shine on a $1 trillion promise and a plan for F-35 fighters. Yet legal, political, and practical issues mean these deals are still in progress. Many now watch closely to see how these promises work out in the next months and years.

For ongoing updates and expert views on U.S.-Saudi ties and defense plans, stay tuned to CNBC.

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Scotiabank Executive Shakeup: Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas Takes on New Strategic Role Amid Workforce Cuts

Scotiabank Announces Executive Shuffle, Moves Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas to New Role

By Naimul Karim, Financial Post | November 18, 2025

Scotiabank reshuffles its senior team. It names Phil Thomas as Chief Strategy and Operating Officer. Thomas was the Chief Risk Officer. He starts his new role in December. The bank makes this change to build strong leaders during its shift in structure.

Leadership Transition

Phil Thomas led risk management when challenges arose. He steered the bank during COVID-19 and trade issues. Now, he takes on strategy and operations. CEO Scott Thomson praises him for lifting risk management when change was rapid. His work built trust in the bank’s risk stance.

Shannon McGinnis takes over as Chief Risk Officer. She served as Deputy Chief Risk Officer. Before joining Scotiabank in 2024, she gained 30 years of risk experience at another bank.

Anique Asher shifts roles next. She was Chief Strategy and Operating Officer for 18 months. Now, she becomes Executive Vice-President of Real Estate Secured Lending. The bank names Tracy Gomes as Chief Risk Officer for Canadian Banking, Global Wealth Management, and Credit Risk. It also appoints Meigan Terry as Chief Global Corporate and Public Affairs Officer.

Context: Transformation and Workforce Changes

The bank made cuts in its Canadian operations recently. Aris Bogdaneris, Head of Canadian Business, sent a memo about the hard choices ahead. He noted that the bank must cut tasks that waste time and add little value. He said goodbye to valued colleagues with respect.

Looking Forward

Scott Thomson says these changes build talent and strengthen leadership. He adds that they help drive steady, healthy growth. The refresh of roles prepares the bank to face global trade shifts and other risks. Phil Thomas now also eyes threats like U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.

About Scotiabank

The Bank of Nova Scotia, known as Scotiabank, stands as one of Canada’s largest banks. It offers services in personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and corporate and investment banking.

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China’s Soybean Stockpiles Soar: U.S. Farmers Face Frustration and Failed Trade Promises

China Faces Surplus of Soybeans While U.S. Farmers Grapple with Frustration Over Trade Stalemate

November 17, 2025 — China’s soybean stock has grown to its highest level in years. American farmers feel the strain. Beijing buys fewer U.S. soybeans. This slow buying happens even though trade deals exist. The move casts doubt on recent claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump. It shows the tough road in U.S.-China agriculture trade.

Slow Progress on U.S. Soybean Sales to China

After the meeting of President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, China bought almost no U.S. soybeans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture records only two deals with a total of 332,000 metric tons from October 2 to November 12. This result is far less than the 12 million metric tons that were expected by the end of 2025.
Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Beijing’s promises to American presidents do not last long. He thinks China may slow its soybean buys. This delay helps China hold on to soybean trade as a tool while it talks with the Trump administration amid other political strains.

High Bean Stockpiles Undermine Demand

China has built large soybean reserves in recent months. Processors, pig farmers, feed makers, and state stockpiles all join in. Port stocks hit 10.3 million tons on November 7, up by 3.6 million tons compared to last year. Crushers also report the highest stock levels since 2017.
Even with steady imports—9.48 million tons in October, a 17.2% jump from the year before—China shows little near-term need for U.S. soybeans. In the first ten months of 2025, China brought in 95.7 million tons, up by 6.4% from 2024. Soybeans from Brazil make up almost 80% of that total.

Brazil’s Growing Soybean Dominance

Brazil is set to harvest a record soybean crop next year. This crop adds more strain for U.S. farmers. Chinese buyers seem to choose Brazilian soybeans because they cost less than the U.S. ones even after China cut tariffs on American soybeans.
This month, China raised its soybean buys from Brazil and pre-booked large shipments for December and early 2026. ### Little Sign of Definitive Purchase Programs

Experts do not see a strong buying plan from state grain importers such as COFCO and Sinograin that usually handle bulk purchases. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, noted that there is little evidence that China is close to meeting the set purchase targets.
China has made some public moves like restoring import licenses for several U.S. soybean exporters. It also appears open to agricultural talk. Still, its actual buying pace remains slow and inconsistent.

Impact on U.S. Farmers and Political Implications

The drop in Chinese soybean purchases hurts American farmers. China has long been the top market for U.S. soybeans. In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China were worth about $12.6 billion. President Trump called China’s reduced buying an act of economic hostility.
Sabrin Chowdbury, who heads commodities at BMI Research, said China’s soybean imports may rise and fall with political changes. Soybeans stay a key part of U.S.-China trade talks.

Broader Trade Context and Future Risks

The trade issues over soybeans show that China uses agricultural imports to tilt U.S. policies. This tactic appeared during the Trump era when China cut back on soybean buys in response to U.S. tariffs.
China now relies more on South American soybeans. This shift brings risks like higher prices, longer shipping times, and changes in weather affecting crops. For U.S. farmers who hoped that the recent trade deal would soon bring back China’s demand, the growing bean stockpiles at Chinese ports warn that the challenge may last longer.

For more news on the U.S.-China soybean trade and global agriculture, follow our live updates and expert analysis.

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