Tag Archive for: Economic News

July 2025 Inflation Report: CPI Rises 2.7% as Tariff Effects Remain Modest, Fed Rate Cuts Likely Ahead

Consumer Price Index Inflation Report for July 2025 Shows Moderate Rise Amid Tariff Concerns

Published August 12, 2025 – Updated 3 Minutes Ago

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July 2025 Consumer Price Index report. The report shows prices rose by 0.2% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis and by 2.7% over the past 12 months. The report gives a lower annual figure than market predictions of a 2.8% increase. Tariff worries came up, but the numbers stayed near expectations.

Core Inflation Trends

When experts remove food and energy from the count, the core CPI rose by 0.3% in July. This increase matches predicted numbers. Year-on-year, the core index reached 3.1%. That annual rise is the highest since February 2025, and the monthly jump is the largest since January. Fed officials study the core numbers to check ongoing price pressure and future trends.

The report shows that shelter costs moved up by 0.2%. Food prices held steady. Energy prices fell by 1.1%. In transportation, the price for new vehicles did not move, while used vehicles rose by 0.5%. Prices for transportation services and medical care both grew by 0.8%.

Market Reaction and Federal Reserve Outlook

After the report came out, stock market futures climbed and Treasury yields dropped. Traders put more money on a Fed rate cut as soon as September. This shift suggests that the market views the price rise as acceptable. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that the odds for a rate cut in September have grown. It has also raised the chance for another cut in October. The odds now stand at about 67%, compared to 55% the day before.

Impact of Tariffs on Inflation Data

Tariffs on many imported goods have raised concerns among economists about their impact on price stability. The report shows that tariff effects can be seen but are not very strong. For instance:
• Prices for household furnishings went up by 0.7% after a 1.0% increase in June.
• Apparel prices increased by only 0.1%.
• Core commodity prices moved up by 0.2%.
• Canned fruits and vegetables, a group sensitive to tariffs, did not show any increase.

A former White House economist, Jared Bernstein, who worked under President Joe Biden, noted in a CNBC interview that the tariff figures show in the data but do not push prices to extreme levels now.

Challenges Affecting CPI Data Reliability

The BLS now faces problems with budget cuts and fewer staff. These cuts have stopped data collection in several cities. The bureau now uses estimates for many price groups. Critics say these changes lower the trust in the CPI readings. The debate has grown after President Trump criticized the bureau and made changes to its leadership. Trump fired the last commissioner following a weak July job report and nominated E.J. Antoni, a known critic of the BLS. This move has made the discussion about the data more heated.

Broader Economic Context and Future Outlook

Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said, "Inflation is on the rise, but it did not grow as much as some feared. In the short term, markets may welcome these data because they keep a September rate cut possible while the labor market shows weakness." She warned that price pressures from tariffs might still grow over time.

A key issue is whether tariffs cause a one-time change in price levels or start a steady rise over time. Most experts expect a one-time shift. Still, the spread of tariffs keeps concerns alive.

The Fed pays attention to the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, as well as the CPI and the upcoming producer price index reports, to guide policy moves.

Additional Inflation and Wage Data

In similar figures, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings grew by just 0.1% in July, which means a 1.2% gain over the year. This small wage growth might affect how much consumers spend and slow down overall growth.

Summary of Key Figures:

  • CPI Monthly Increase (July): +0.2%
  • CPI Annual Increase: +2.7% (forecast was 2.8%)
  • Core CPI Monthly Increase: +0.3%
  • Core CPI Annual Increase: +3.1%
  • Shelter Costs Monthly Increase: +0.2%
  • Energy Prices Monthly Change: -1.1%
  • Used Vehicles Monthly Increase: +0.5%
  • Average Hourly Earnings Monthly Change: +0.1%
  • Average Hourly Earnings Annual Change: +1.2%

The July CPI report comes at a key point as the Federal Reserve weighs a possible interest rate cut while inflation risks and changes in the labor market persist. Market players and policymakers will watch the next data releases to see how tariffs and other factors shape the inflation picture.

Trump-Putin Talks: A Strategic Win for Moscow Amid Economic Struggles and Market Impacts

Trump-Putin Talks Mark Significant Victory for Moscow, Impacting Economy and Markets

Global interest grows. Putin and Trump meet in Alaska this Friday. This meeting wins for Moscow, its weak economy, and world markets. It seeks to end the war in Ukraine—a conflict that hurts both nation ties and money flows.

A Symbolic Win for Putin and Russia

The meeting shows a clear sign of power. Richard Portes, who leads the economics studies at London Business School, says the mark is strong. This time, since 2007, Putin meets on U.S. soil with no limits or other sides present.
Portes said, "This win is big for Putin… No limits and no Ukraine or any European side. This is a win."

Ukraine’s Exclusion Sparks Concern

Ukraine is not in this talk. Leaders in Kyiv, like President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wait on an invite. They worry that their voice will be lost. Kyiv says no choice about its fate comes without it. In Europe, leaders ask hard to see Ukraine join. The U.S. seems to think about inviting Zelenskyy too.

Economic Context: Russia’s War Economy Under Strain

Russia wins some ground on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet, its money matters are weak. Sanctions and high inflation—9.4% in June 2025—hurt its funds. The war makes a large budget gap. Oil and gas cash falls with low prices and the limits. Money work stays poor, even as field wins rise.
Portes said, "Putin begins with strong field actions but weak money power."

Potential Implications for Sanctions and Territorial Concessions

Russia, with a strong field, seeks fast relief from limits and some land in Ukraine. Kremlin voices also see new work and sales chances from a warmer U.S.-Russia tie, in Alaska and the Arctic. Yet, the U.S. may not back more limits. Washington talks of "secondary limits" against Russia’s trading friends like India. Trump has not started extra limits even as calls for more come in.

Market Reactions: A Mixed Picture

World markets react with hope to the talk news. Stocks in Europe and the U.S. rise on Friday. Yet, defense stocks drop as the idea of peace may bring less money for arms.

  • Defense Shares Falling: German firms Rheinmetall and Hensoldt lose nearly 4% and 1.5%. Similar drops hit Italy’s Leonardo and France’s Thales.
  • Gold Prices Decline: Gold, a safe spot, slips by about 1% as political tensions ease.

Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, sees a win on both sides for Europe’s defense names. He explains:
• If the talks break, the war goes on. New arms then will be needed.
• If a deal holds, Russia’s strong field still pushes Europe to buy arms.

Granville tells traders, "Buy on that drop," expecting long gains for defense groups no matter what happens with the talks.

Looking Ahead

The Trump-Putin meet in Alaska sits at a key turn. The talks serve as a sign for Russia. Yet, eyes stay fixed on real steps—especially for Ukraine and for what U.S. will do with Moscow’s limits. As events shift, global markets and politics stay alert and hopeful for a deal that keeps safety and money matters in careful balance.

For ongoing updates on the Trump-Putin talks and their global impact, stay tuned to CNBC and other trusted news sources.

The U.S.-China Trade Truce: A Crucial Deadline Approaches Amid Rising Tensions and Strategic Negotiations

U.S.-China Tariff Truce Extension Hangs in the Balance as Deadline Nears

The deadline nears. The United States and China sit at a table. They share a tariff truce. The trade deal stands on a thin line. The agreement, born in May, will end on Tuesday. The two leaders now face the risk of trade tensions rising.

Background and Current Status

In May 2025, the U.S. and China made a 90-day deal. They did so to slow down high trade duties. In April, some duties reached 145%. The truce cut tariffs and stopped new fines. This pause helped both sides talk toward a longer plan.

  • Tariff Situation:
    • The U.S. puts a 20% tariff on many Chinese shipments. This move follows fentanyl trafficking claims.
    • Many Chinese goods get an extra 10% tariff.
    • Selected items bear a 25% rate from the past U.S. policy.
    • American goods for China face tariffs above 32.6%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

After a meeting in Stockholm last month, Chinese voices sounded optimistic. Still, the U.S. now waits for a decision. President Donald Trump must choose on the extension. His pause makes new tariff hikes a real risk.

Trade and Economic Impact

Trade data shows a strain. China’s exports to the U.S. dropped for the fourth month. In July, they fell by 21.7% compared to last year. U.S. exports to China also fell by 10.3% during the first seven months of 2025. Experts see a future deal. They believe China might soon buy more American goods. They list these main sectors:

  • Energy
  • Agriculture (mainly soybeans)
  • Semiconductor equipment (under agreed conditions)

Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics thinks the next deal may look like a second version of the phase-one deal from 2020. The earlier promise broke down because of the pandemic. Trump has asked for a boost in Chinese soybean orders. In recent months, the orders have grown fast.

Upcoming Summit Prospects and Political Dynamics

Experts expect a meeting soon in Beijing. President Trump and President Xi Jinping may meet in the coming months. Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group says the meeting might steady ties. Yet this does not signal friendlier feelings. Both banks seem to move toward economic separation as world trade shifts.

Other Points of Contention

Other issues make talks hard:

  • Semiconductor Export Controls:
    U.S. export rules for chips stir debate. Nvidia plans to sell its H20 chip in China again. Many see this as a small change, not a full easing of rules. U.S. voices split. Some worry about China using the chips for military work. Others note that too strict rules might push China to make its own chips.

  • Rare-Earth Metals Exports:
    Rare-earth elements help make tech products. China leads this market. It recently let more rare-earths and magnets pass to the U.S. A higher flow of these goods may affect future talks.

  • Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil Purchases:
    The U.S. adds extra tariffs on nations buying Russian oil. India and maybe China face these charges. China buys a large part of Russia’s oil. This fact may make future talks tougher.

Outlook

An official move on the tariff truce is still unknown. The choice that Trump makes will shape U.S.-China trade in coming months.

Tensions brew on trade balances, export rules, and global plans. Global markets wait with bated breath. A high-level meeting between Trump and Xi might calm the tension. Yet both sides must work hard to guide this complex process.

This article will be updated as new information becomes available.

Treatonomics: How Economic Uncertainty is Fueling a Boom in Self-Care Spending and Joyful Experiences

The Rise of ‘Treatonomics’: From Lipsticks to Concerts, Consumers Seek Comfort in Uncertain Times

In times when the economy feels weak, prices rise and jobs seem unstable, a new trend spreads. People call this trend “treatonomics.” Many choose small joys to lift their day. They buy items like lipsticks and collectible dolls. They also spend on events like concerts. Each purchase helps them feel a bit happier.

What is Treatonomics?

Treatonomics shows a way of spending that stays real even when money is tight. It goes beyond the old idea that people buy small luxuries in hard times. Retail expert John Stevenson notes, “You may not buy a new sofa or dress, yet you might pick up new throw pillows or a lipstick. These small treats lift your mood without much cost.” Home décor, personal care products, and collectibles hold their ground even in hard times.

Everyday Luxuries Meet Life-Affirming Experiences

Unlike the focus on cheap items, treatonomics covers many parts of life. After the Covid-19 time, people care more about well-being and fun memories. They spend on concerts and similar events. Some even pay over $200 to see a favorite artist perform. Stevenson says, “People cut back on daily costs but choose a fun event when they can. They may buy cheaper groceries yet spend a lot on a concert weekend.”

What Drives the Treatonomics Trend?

Experts see several reasons behind treatonomics.

  • Joy Without Regret: Meredith Smith at Kantar explains that treatonomics is not about bad habits. It is about adding moments of joy to life. A small treat shows success amid hard times.

  • Shifts in Life Goals: Many find that big life steps, like buying a house or getting married, have changed. Younger groups celebrate with smaller, fun events. They mark personal wins with events such as pet birthdays or a day for self-care.

  • Youthful Play: Millennials and Gen Z enjoy fun activities that remind them of childhood. This choice brings sales to items like special LEGO sets. Some even spend up to $1,000 on kits that spark a sense of wonder.

Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook

Even with treatonomics strong, many remain cautious. In the UK, a consumer index fell a bit in July 2025. In the US, numbers creep up, yet most still feel less secure than in past years. This state of mind may last for years. Experts expect that treatonomics and fun spending will stay a part of everyday life.

What This Means for Brands and Consumers

Brands now face a changing scene. They must move quickly to meet new wants among buyers. The mix of regular luxuries with memorable events may split into small trends based on region and culture. At the same time, buyers find new ways to celebrate. From a new lipstick or a rare toy to nights filled with music and friends, these treats bring hope in uncertain days.

When the world feels unsure, treatonomics shows us one way to balance care with fun. Each treat—a small buy or a special night out—binds a simple act to a burst of joy. This trend helps people find a light moment even when times are tough.

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates: What It Means for the Economy and Future Projections

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates to 4% Amid Economic Balancing Act

On Thursday, August 7, 2025, the Bank of England cut its Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4%. The bank made this 25-basis-point cut with care and a steady pace. It aims to boost growth now while keeping prices in check.

Monetary Policy Committee Voting Split

The Monetary Policy Committee split its votes 5–4. Five members chose the cut. Four members preferred no change. This close vote shows that the members face a hard task. They try to weigh mixed signals from the UK economy.

Economic Context: Inflation, Jobs, and Growth

  • Inflation: The Consumer Price Index went up from 3.4% in May to 3.6% in June. Prices stay above the bank’s 2% goal.
  • Labor Market: The number of paid workers fell in seven of the last eight months. Unemployment edged up this year.
  • Economic Growth: The nation’s gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in May. The small fall shows weak growth.

Economists point to the labor market as a key factor. They see no single sign of a sharp job loss. Most job weakness appears in the hospitality field. That sector feels the effect of higher tax on wages and worker pay rolls.

Expert Forecasts on Future Rate Movements

Economists mostly see more rate cuts in the coming months.

  • Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, sees further quarter-point cuts. He thinks the Bank Rate may fall to 3.5% by February 2026.
  • Ashley Webb, a UK economist at Capital Economics, expects even deeper cuts. She thinks rates could drop to 3.0% by 2026. Webb notes that as the labor market softens, wage growth and prices may slow to a 2% level.

Challenges Behind the Decision

The MPC looked at stubborn inflation and soft signals in jobs.
• The inflation numbers stay high and do not move quickly.
• Job numbers show slow decline, especially in sectors hit by new taxes and policy moves.
• Though fewer jobs are seen, the decline is not sharp enough to give a clear signal.

Summary

The Bank of England cut rates to 4% to push for growth amid steady inflation and a cooling jobs market. The close vote shows deep debate. Future data and bank talks will help us see how this balancing act moves on in the coming months.

For continued updates on economic policies and interest rate moves, stay tuned to CNBC and subscribe to our newsletters.

Trump’s Bold New Tariffs: A Game-Changer for U.S. Trade Relations

Trump’s ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Take Effect, Impacting Numerous U.S. Trading Partners

Published August 7, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump set his planned "reciprocal" tariffs into motion. The new tariffs raise import duties from many trade partners. They aim to fix old trade differences. Trump claims some nations have used the United States for years.

Major Tariff Increases Across Multiple Countries

At midnight, tariffs on billions of dollars in goods reached U.S. markets. Trump posted on his social media site, Truth Social:
“IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!”

Tariff hikes hit many countries. For example:

  • Syria gets a 41% duty.
  • Laos and Myanmar face a 40% rate.
  • Switzerland is hit with 39% after talks fell apart.
  • Brazil and India now face 50% (with India’s rate rising from 25% later this month).

Swiss officials met in Washington D.C. They tried hard to make a deal when the 39% rate was set. No solution has been reached yet, and an announcement is expected from the Swiss government later on Thursday.

Varied Tariff Rates and Ongoing Negotiations

Different trade partners face different tariff rates. The European Union, Japan, and South Korea now have tariffs of 15%. The United Kingdom secured a rate of 10%. China still holds a temporary trade truce with the U.S. Tariffs for Mexico are paused as talks continue.

India’s exports total $434 billion. Tariffs on Indian goods will rise to 50% later this month. The administration cites India’s current purchase of Russian oil as the main reason for the increase.

Experts Warn on Economic Impact and Risks

Bill Papadakis, a macro strategist at Lombard Odier, shared his view on CNBC. He said,
“This game is not over.”
He warned that even with recent trade deals and pauses in some tariffs, these new duties might slow U.S. growth and nudge inflation upward.

Papadakis pointed out that Trump’s plans include a possible 100% tariff on semiconductor chips. Some earlier moves were held back after market reactions. The full effects of these tariffs will come into view only with time.

Looking Ahead

The Trump administration is now rearranging tariffs to show a firm stance on trade. This change aims to balance trade but may push up inflation, disturb supply lines, and test trade ties.

As Switzerland waits for further news and India prepares for higher duties, global markets watch closely to see how these new tariffs change international trade dynamics.

For live updates and in-depth coverage on ongoing trade developments, stay connected with CNBC.

Trump’s Trade Strategy Hits a Home Run: Tariffs and Investment Deals with a Baseball Twist

Trump’s Tariff Playbook Comes with a Baseball Twist

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on CNBC. In his talk, he mixed trade talk with a baseball image. He compared global trade funds to the bonus a baseball player might get when signing with a team. Trump tied big money from trade deals to a familiar sports idea.

Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Baseball Bonuses

On CNBC’s Squawk Box this Tuesday, Trump noted large sums from recent trade deals with Europe and Japan. He spoke in short, clear phrases that link each idea tightly:

"We’re taking in trillions of dollars… people love the tariffs, they love the trade deals, and they love that foreign countries are not ripping us off anymore."

He named Japan next. For Japan, he explained that the U.S. would see about $550 billion in funds. He drew a direct link to a baseball bonus:

"If you look at Japan, we’re taking in $550 billion, and that’s like a signing bonus that a baseball player would get. He would get slightly less than that… He would get a million dollars, or $2 million or $20 million, or whatever they give today."

Trump made sure his words tied the investment to American control:

"So I got a signing bonus from Japan of $550 billion. That’s our money. It’s our money to invest, as we like."

European Union’s Commitment

The European trade deal shows similar connections. The agreement cuts import rates to 15% and sets up $750 billion in American energy sales by 2028. The EU also set aside $600 billion for new spending in the U.S. When asked for details, Trump stated:

"The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want, anything, I can do anything I want with it."

He then tied these funds with tariff moves:

"Well, then they pay tariffs at 35%. No, no. They brought down their tariffs."

When others asked why the EU had a lower tariff, he said simply:

"Because [the EU] gave me $600 billion. And that’s a gift — that’s not a loan. There’s nothing to pay back. They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want."

Strategic Industrial Revitalization

The White House has said the funds target key sectors that revive America’s core industries. The focus connects clearly with several building blocks:

  • Energy infrastructure and production
  • Semiconductor making
  • Essential minerals mining
  • Drug and medical production
  • Both commercial and defense ship building

These steps tie U.S. efforts to lower foreign import needs and grow nearby manufacturing.

A Deal-Maker’s Vocabulary

Trump uses plain language shaped by his background in real estate and deal-making. His style uses clear, short links between words. His baseball “signing bonus” image makes big numbers and trade ideas feel close and clear.

Watch the full CNBC interview with President Donald Trump on Squawk Box for more on his trade path and future money moves.

Summary:
President Donald Trump talked about huge funds from Japan and the EU. He called these funds baseball bonuses like those seen in pro sports. The trade deals aim to boost U.S. industry and cut reliance on foreign sources, with every link between words kept close for easier understanding.

Trump’s Alarming 41% Tariff on Syria: Economic Stranglehold or Political Leverage?

Syria Faces Further Economic Strain Amid Highest Global U.S. Tariffs Despite Recent Sanctions Lift

Date: August 6, 2025

The Trump team sets a 41% tariff on Syrian goods. This tariff rate is the highest in the world. President Trump lifted U.S. limits on Syria just a few months ago. The new tax and the lifted rules now work side by side in a surprising way.

A Complex Economic Landscape for Syria

Syria carries the label of a terrorism supporter since 1979. The U.S. set strong limits in 2004 and pushed them further in 2011 when the government acted harshly against protestors. Years of civil war, harmful fighting among groups, and the rise and fall of ISIS have left Syria hurt. Its markets, banks, and services now suffer under these heavy burdens.

In May 2025, at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, President Trump announced a full removal of U.S. limits. Many saw this as a sign that Syria might soon heal. Yet only three short months later, the high tariff casts doubt on that hope. U.S. trade with Syria is very small. In 2023, exports hit about $11.3 million, while imports stayed near $1.29 million. The steep tariff now sends a strong and clear signal.

Impact on Reconstruction and Trade

Experts say Syria needs help to rebuild. The transitional government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, looks for steady support from abroad. Over two-thirds of Syria’s power grid is down, and major cities like Aleppo and Damascus face long blackouts. Relief groups plan energy projects. One project from Qatar aims to supply gas to over 5 million people. The new tariff may cut off the chance for better U.S. trade and slow down fresh investment.

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, notes that the high rate stops any chance for solid trade ties with the United States. He sees the measure as direct pressure on Damascus to shift its politics. His view is that U.S. goals include pushing Syria to adjust its stance, such as moving toward a different kind of relation with Israel, which still acts in Syrian areas.

The Symbolism Behind the Tariff

The high rate may not hurt trade numbers much, yet it speaks loudly. The tariff works like a firm hand that keeps Syria in check. U.S. adjustments later may depend on choices made in Damascus. H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warns that Syria’s recovery teeters on a thin line. He says one misstep could push Syria back into deeper conflict and pain.

International and Diplomatic Dimensions

After limits fell, delegations from the U.S., Gulf states, and others visited Syria. Qatar and Saudi Arabia stay active in builds and aid works. Fahad Al-Sulaiti, director general of Qatar Fund for Development, says U.S. contacts work with them to support Syria’s fragile state. U.S. envoy Tom Barrack voices strong backing for Syria’s transitional government. No clear word has come from the State Department or the White House on why the tariff makes sense in Syria’s case.

Conclusion

The 41% tariff on Syria follows soon after removing old U.S. limits. This mix of actions shows a U.S. approach that holds both care and doubt for Syria’s new government. Even if the tax may not hurt trade right away, its strong message could affect Syria’s steps toward lasting calm and rebuild. As Syria works to recover from years of damage, experts urge a united international effort that avoids mixed signals.

For ongoing coverage and analysis of Syria and global economic policies, subscribe to CNBC PRO or join the Investing Club.

Bitter Cost: How 39% Tariffs on Swiss Luxury Goods Will Impact U.S. Consumers’ Wallets

Chocolate, Skincare, and Timepieces: How 39% U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Goods Will Impact Prices

Published: August 5, 2025

U.S. consumers love Swiss products like fine chocolates, quality skincare, and luxury watches. They now face higher prices. The new 39% tariff on Swiss goods takes effect this Thursday unless negotiators reach a fast deal. Here, each word pair links closely to make the text clear and easy to follow.

Background on the Tariff Dispute

News last week shocked many. Switzerland now risks one of the highest U.S. tariff rates. Politicians, analysts, and businesses expected a lower rate. They had seen the European Union use a 15% tariff and the United Kingdom use a 10% rate.
A U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland hit $38.3 billion in 2024. A large part of this gap ties to Swiss gold refining. Gold and silver pass quickly through Switzerland for processing before they move around the world. Imports of these metals do not pay the exchange tariffs.
Pharmaceuticals form another important sector. These products now do not pay tariffs. Ongoing U.S. probes under Section 232 could change rules for some medical devices and drugs later.

Key Sectors Impacted by the Tariffs

Luxury Watches

Swiss watches rank as top exports. In 2024, U.S. buyers spent 4.37 billion Swiss francs ($5.4 billion) on these timepieces. To be called “Swiss-made,” a watch must have at least 60% of its production cost in Switzerland and must be designed there. Experts worry a 39% tariff will push prices high:

  • Paul Altieri, CEO of Bob’s Watches, said the price of a Rolex Submariner might jump from $10,000 to almost $14,000.
  • Jean-Philippe Bertschy of Vontobel said mid-range Swiss watches may suffer more. Shops and makers could face longer waits and higher costs.
  • Top brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet may cope better, even though they have long waiting lists.

Coffee Products

Nestlé sees mixed results. Most of its U.S. items come from local plants, so they feel little change. Its Nespresso line is made in Switzerland and could see a small price rise. North American sales of Nespresso grew in early 2025. This growth shows that even small hikes can matter.

Skincare and Beauty Products

Swiss brands in skin care and beauty include:

  • La Prairie (with caviar-based anti-aging creams)
  • Valmont (used in spa treatments)
  • Mavala (in nail care)

Analysts from Lombard Odier say Swiss firms normally cope with tariffs of 10% to 15% without big profit loss. A 39% tariff creates a hard challenge. Galderma, which makes injectable skin products and Cetaphil facewash, produces most of its goods outside Switzerland. This practice keeps it clear of current tariffs but may change in later reviews.

Luxury Goods

High-end jewelers like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels face rising costs. Bank of America Securities shows that 7% of Richemont’s input costs are affected by the tariff. Richemont has warned that higher tariffs may lead to increased prices and lower demand. Some luxury brands may see a slight lift if a higher price tag adds to their rare image. Still, most will feel the impact.

Chocolate Industry

Swiss chocolates are well known around the world. The 39% tariff, along with a stronger Swiss franc, may drive prices up by as much as 55%. Small and medium-sized Swiss chocolate makers, such as Camille Bloch and Läderach, may lose many customers if they cannot produce in the U.S. Some giants like Lindt & Sprüngli and Barry Callebaut own U.S. facilities, which helps them cope, but smaller firms do not have that option.
Roger Wehrli from Chocosuisse reminds us that chocolate must be made in Switzerland to keep the “Swiss chocolate” mark. Toblerone had to change its packaging after moving some of its work to Slovakia in 2023. —

What’s Next?

Swiss negotiators work fast to stop the tariffs from starting this Thursday. They know that high tariffs could hurt growth, jobs, and stock values. Economists warn that long tariffs may shake consumer demand and change old trade links, especially in top product groups.
U.S. buyers should get ready for a rise in prices on Swiss goods, from luxury watches and skin products to chocolates and coffee. The coming days will show if negotiators cut the tariff or lessen its effects.

For ongoing coverage and updates on the U.S.-Swiss tariff matter, stay tuned to CNBC.

Trump’s Fed Chair Candidates: Bessent Bows Out as Four Contenders Emerge for the Role

Trump Narrows Federal Reserve Chair Candidates, Treasury Secretary Bessent Steps Aside

Trump reduced the list of Fed Chair candidates when he announced on CNBC’s Squawk Box that Scott Bessent will not try to lead the central bank. The President said Bessent will stay at the Treasury Department. This choice cuts the list to four candidates.

Bessent Opts to Stay as Treasury Secretary

Trump spoke with high respect for Bessent. Still, Bessent chose to remain in his current role. Last night, Trump asked him, “Is this something you want?” Bessent replied, “Nope, I want to stay where I am. I want to work with you.” Trump called this response an honor. Bessent was once seen as a top choice for the influential role, but he is out of the running now.

The Remaining Contenders

Trump did not name all four candidates but mentioned a few well-known figures:

  • Kevin Warsh – former Fed Governor known for favoring lower interest rates.
  • Kevin Hassett – the director of the National Economic Council who often supports rate cuts.
  • Christopher Waller – a current Fed Governor who is said to be competing.

Trump spoke well of both Kevins, calling them “very good” candidates. He also referred to other strong prospects. In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned effective this Friday. Trump called Kugler’s exit a “pleasant surprise” because it frees up a seat for someone from Trump’s circle.

The Fed Chair Position and Interest Rate Policies

The current Chair, Jerome Powell, will finish his term in May 2026. Powell was nominated by Trump in 2017 and was confirmed by the Senate. Trump often criticizes Powell for the way he handles interest rate policies. In a remark, Trump said, “Sir, I’ll keep interest rates so low. I’m a low interest rate person.”
Right now, interest rates sit in the 4.25%-4.5% range. Markets expect the next rate drop to come in September. This fits with Trump’s long-held view in favor of looser monetary rules.

Speculation on a “Shadow Chair”

Trump did not rule out the idea of naming a second, backup chair for the Fed. Though he did not say he would make that move, he noted that it remains “a possibility.”

The administration now readies itself to fill key positions at the Federal Reserve. This move may align the central bank closer to the White House’s economic plans in an election year.

For real-time updates and live coverage, CNBC viewers can tune into the Squawk Box livestream and check detailed reports on the changing Fed leadership.

Source: CNBC, August 5, 2025