Tag Archive for: Economic

Honey Deuce: How the U.S. Open’s Signature Cocktail Price Compares to Inflation

At the U.S. Open in New York, tennis fans crave a famous drink: the Honey Deuce. Its vodka base mixes with small honeydew pieces that clap like tennis balls. This cocktail ties with the match and cheer of a two-week event.

Rising Prices Amid Inflation Trends

Today, the drink costs $23. In 2015, it sold for $15—a change of 50% when you compare the two prices. The price held last year but had six jumps since 2012. CNBC checked the drink’s change with the overall cost rise tracked by the CPI.

From August 2015 to July 2025, the CPI climbed by about 36%. At the same time, the Honey Deuce price grew by about 53%. If it had moved with the general cost, you would find it at about $20.33 now. That is roughly $2.67 less than its current cost.

Outpacing Inflation and Other Alcoholic Beverages

This drink’s price grew more than that of other drinks served outside homes in U.S. cities, which went up by nearly 34% in ten years. The closer cost rise shows the Honey Deuce now stands higher than many of its drink mates.

The Impact on U.S. Open Revenue

Even at $23, the drink stays a crowd favorite. In 2024, fans bought over 550,000 Honey Deuce cocktails. Those sales brought in close to $13 million, as NBC New York reports. The U.S. Tennis Association did not share words about its pricing when asked.

Consumer Behavior in the Era of “Funflation”

The higher cost shows that many now pay extra for a unique fun time. Many watch prices again even as overall inflation slowed after COVID-19. They still choose travel, concerts, and live sports for a special day out.

Summary

  • Honey Deuce price in 2015: $15
  • Current Honey Deuce price: $23
  • Price increase since 2015: ~53%
  • Broader inflation (CPI) increase since 2015: ~36%
  • Alcoholic beverages price increase outside home: ~34%
  • Yearly Honey Deuce sales at U.S. Open: 550,000+
  • Revenue from Honey Deuce sales in 2024: Nearly $13 million

As the U.S. Open draws fans to New York, the Honey Deuce stands with the event. Its price change shows how inflation and the pull of unique moments shape spending at big sports shows.

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PCE Inflation Report for July 2025 Shows Core Inflation at Highest Level Since February

The U.S. economy saw inflation rise in July 2025. The Commerce Department published a Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report. In the report, core inflation—which drops food and energy prices—hit an annual rate of 2.9%. This rate meets economist views and marks the highest since February.

Key Inflation Findings

• Core PCE Inflation moved up by 0.1 point from June to 2.9% on an annual and seasonally adjusted basis.
• Monthly core inflation climbed by 0.3%, which matches forecasts.
• Overall, the all-items PCE index shows a 2.6% annual inflation rate with a 0.2% monthly rise. Each number falls near consensus views.

The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index to measure inflation. It focuses on the core rate because it drops the variable food and energy prices. The Fed has set a 2% target. The rate now stays above this target, and the economy still shows inflation pressure.

Consumer Spending and Income Show Resilience

Inflation rises did not stop consumers from spending. In July, consumer spending grew by 0.5% as expected. Personal income also grew by 0.4%. These facts point to a strong consumer base even while prices go up.

Impact of Tariffs on Inflation

The inflation rise comes with tariff effects imposed by the Trump administration earlier this year. In April, a 10% tariff began on all imports. This step was soon followed by tariffs on some trading partners and by extra duties on some goods. The White House also ended exemptions for shipments under $800. These rules add to price increases in the supply chain.

Market and Federal Reserve Implications

After the report, stock futures lost a bit while Treasury yields stayed up. The mixed signals show different market views. The Fed now plans its next policy meeting. Many expect a rate cut in September, even as inflation stays high.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports lowering rates if the job market weakens. Experts such as Ellen Zentner from Morgan Stanley say future cuts will depend on jobs and inflation risks.

Sector Breakdown of Prices

• Energy: Prices fell by 2.7% over the year and by 1.1% over the month.
• Food: Prices went up by 1.9% over the year and dropped 0.1% in the month.
• Services: Prices rose by 3.6% over the year and by 0.3% in the month.
• Goods: Prices increased by 0.5% over the year and declined 0.1% in the month.

Conclusion

The July 2025 PCE report shows high inflation. Service prices drive most of the rise, even as energy and food costs fall. Consumer spending and income keep the economy active. The Fed must balance control of rising prices with support for growth and jobs.

The next weeks will be key as the Fed checks job data and inflation moves to set new rate plans.


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Denmark Cuts 2025 Economic Growth Forecast as Novo Nordisk Stumbles

August 29, 2025 – Denmark’s government lowers its growth forecast for 2025 from 3% to 1.4%. The drop comes as pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk slows in performance. The company makes popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.

Impact on the Pharmaceutical Sector

Denmark grew by 3.7% in 2024 with a strong rise in pharmaceutical exports. Novo Nordisk played a key role in this growth.

In early 2025, exports to the United States, a key market for the company, fell. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Interior gave these reasons:

  • Exports spiked in late 2024. Now, stocks drop.
  • The company loses market share against its rivals.
  • U.S. markets now see more generic drugs.

U.S. Tariffs and Trade Changes

U.S. tariffs on European medicines add to the doubt. A recent EU-U.S. trade pact cleared up some issues, yet tariff worries still affect growth.

The Danish Economic Ministry said:
"Growth in the first quarter of 2025 did not meet expectations. U.S. tariff hikes and lower drug industry results led us to cut the GDP growth estimate for 2025."

Outlook Despite These Issues

The ministry stresses that Denmark’s economy stays strong at its base. Some signs of strength are:

  • High employment as job numbers hold steady.
  • Controlled inflation that stays below 2% each year.

The forecast for 2026 rose from 1.4% to 2.1%. This change comes as more private and public spending is expected.

Novo Nordisk’s Position and Plans

A few years ago, Novo Nordisk became Europe’s most valuable firm. Demand for its drugs surged then. Now, the stock has lost over 10% in 2024 and more than 40% in 2025 year-to-date. This drop changed its market ranking.

In its quarterly report released earlier this month, Novo Nordisk showed a 67% sales rise over the past year. The company earned 19.53 billion Danish kroner (around $3.03 billion). It now plans to push more direct sales. The company faces strong competition from U.S. rival Eli Lilly and generic drug makers. Washington also pressures it to drop domestic drug prices.


Summary: Denmark lowers its economic growth forecast due to a slowdown in its key pharmaceutical sector. With falling exports and tariff worries, immediate growth is weak. A recovery is expected in 2026 with more domestic spending and new company strategies.

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U.S. Economy Grows 3.3% in Q2, Surpassing Initial Estimates

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025. The Commerce Department released a report on Thursday. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3%. The number has been revised from 3.0% and beats a forecast of 3.1% from Dow Jones analysts.

Key Drivers of Growth: Consumer Spending and Domestic Sales

Consumer spending helped push the GDP higher. Spending grew by 1.6%, which is more than the early 1.4% estimate. Final sales to private domestic purchasers climbed by 1.9% after a previous reading of 1.2%. This measure gives insight into the real demand from consumers and businesses when ignoring inventory changes.

Effects of Tariffs and Trade Volatility

Trade figures show the effect of a recent tariff policy.

  • Imports fell by 29.8% this quarter. This drop is a bit smaller than the original 30.3% estimate. Companies bought more imports before the tariffs began on April 2, a day they called "liberation day."
  • Exports went down by 1.3%, which is an improvement over the earlier expected drop of 1.8%.

These figures together added nearly five percentage points to the GDP growth because lower imports count as a boost in the overall calculation.

Broader Economic Context and Future Outlook

For the first half of 2025, the GDP grew at an annual rate of about 2.1%. This followed a 0.5% drop in the first quarter due to high imports before tariffs. Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that Americans keep spending even as trade policies affect prices. She mentioned that the pace of spending may slow to about 1.5% as tariff effects settle in.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s "GDPNow" model shows that the economy is growing at a 2.2% rate in the third quarter. This indicates that the growth continues at a moderate pace.

Inflation Measures Hold Steady

Inflation stayed close to previous levels in a changing economic scene:

  • The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.5% without change from earlier reports.
  • The broad headline PCE price index edged lower to 2%, which is near the Federal Reserve’s target.

Summary of Second Quarter 2025 U.S. Economic Data:

  • GDP Growth: 3.3% annualized (revised from 3.0%)
  • Consumer Spending: +1.6% (revised from 1.4%)
  • Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers: +1.9% (revised from 1.2%)
  • Imports: -29.8% (less severe than earlier estimate)
  • Exports: -1.3% (improved from prior estimate)
  • Inflation – Core PCE: +2.5%
  • Inflation – Headline PCE: +2%

As the economy copes with the effect of trade policies and cautious consumer behavior, these numbers show strong demand and a steady path for growth ahead.


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Trump’s Fed Firing: What to Know and Why It Matters

On Monday night, President Donald Trump sent shock through world money markets. He fired Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. This move drew swift attention from investors, economists, and policymakers. It brings forward hard issues and political strain around the U.S. bank’s free work. Here is a clear look at what happened and why it counts.

Understanding the Federal Reserve’s Role

The Federal Reserve is the U.S. central bank. It controls the country’s money policy. Over 110 years ago, it was set up to work for the nation. The Fed follows a dual goal: to keep more people employed and to hold prices steady. This guideline comes from a 1977 change in the law.

Key tasks for the Federal Reserve are to:

• Set the main interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 members to decide this.
• Watch over banks. This keeps the money system safe.
• Check risks by testing banks under hard conditions.

The FOMC meets at least eight times each year. At these meetings, the board sets the federal funds rate. This rate is the cost banks pay to borrow money overnight. It then affects what customers pay on loans such as car loans, home loans, and credit cards. At present, this rate is near 4.25% to 4.50%.

Who Is Lisa Cook?

Lisa Cook joined the Federal Reserve in 2022. She is the first African-American woman in this job. In 2023, she was named again for a 15-year term, ending in 2038. Before her Fed role, Dr. Cook taught and worked in public policy. For example, she was a professor at Michigan State University. She worked as a senior economist on the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama (2011–2012). She also worked with Harvard Kennedy School, Stanford University, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Her strong skill in economics and her wide work history give her a solid voice on the board.

The Role of a Fed Governor

The seven members on the Board of Governors get jobs by appointment from the president. The Senate confirms these roles. They lead the Federal Reserve and vote in the FOMC. The FOMC also has five more members. These are the New York Fed president and four Reserve Bank presidents who change over time.

The long, shifted terms of the governors help keep the Fed free of politics.

Why Is Trump Firing Lisa Cook?

On his social media post, President Trump blamed false claims on mortgage forms as the reason to remove Cook. Cook said the president cannot make this call and plans to fight back in court.

The Federal Reserve said it would follow any rule on the firing. Although law lets the president remove a governor “for cause,” that phrase is not clear. This vagueness may start a long legal fight, one that might reach the Supreme Court.

Possible Political and Economic Signals

Beyond the mortgage issue, experts see this firing as part of Trump’s push to see lower rates. The president has often questioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping rates high since last year. Trump claims that high rates slow down growth.

Market moods now seem to back a rate cut. Futures hint at an 89% chance of a rate drop at the policy meeting in September. Yet, this view also comes from weak labor reports, not just from politics.

Market Reactions and Implications for Investors

After the announcement, U.S. stock markets kept on a steady path, as they have since Trump took charge in January. Some signals, however, spoke of worry:

• The U.S. dollar index fell as investors looked for safer or different coins.
Gold prices went up. Gold is seen as a safe bet when times are tough or rules seem uncertain.

What This Means for Main Street

For most Americans, the firing has little quick effect. Over time, though, the change might be more wide-reaching. Removing Cook could clear the way for a new governor who may favor lower rates. This choice can affect loan costs for both people and companies.

Lower rates help speed up growth by making credit cheaper. At the same time, they might bring risks like rising prices or financial bubbles if held for too long.


In summary, President Trump’s act of firing a Fed governor marks a rare and hot step. It tests the U.S. bank’s free work. The coming legal fight and market moves will be watched closely for what they mean for U.S. money rules and the world’s finance.

Stay informed on this story as more facts and court results come out.


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German Auto Industry Faces Severe Job Cuts Amid Economic Challenges

The German auto industry loses many jobs. Data from Destatis under EY show a nearly 7% drop in work, about 51,500 jobs lost by the end of June 2025. This drop shows the links between worker loss and the wider money issues in the country.

Job Losses Hit the Auto Industry Hardest

EY finds that almost half of the 114,000 lost jobs in all German industries came from the auto field. No other sector lost work as fast. Since 2019, the auto field cut about 112,000 jobs. Jan Brorhilker of EY Germany points to falling profits, extra factory power, and weak foreign markets as the main ties that bind these cuts.

Declining Revenues and Profit Warnings

Money flows in the auto field now drop. In the second quarter of 2025, revenues fell by 1.6% over the same quarter a year ago. Big makers like Volkswagen show serious profit drops and lower yearly forecasts. Although a 1.6% fall is less than the 2.1% seen across all industries, the shift raises warning flags for Europe’s largest industrial group.

Multiple Industry Headwinds

The German auto field faces many linked problems:

  • Rival makers from China push down prices and spark new ideas.
  • Companies cannot lead in the quick electric car market. Some point to slow state actions and hard rules.
  • U.S. trade rules, with high taxes on cars, add stress. German makers depend on the U.S., where a "Made in Germany" mark shows high quality.

Exports of cars and parts to the U.S. fell by 8.6% in the first half of 2025 compared to last year. Makers warn that high taxes and trade doubts may hold back future work.

Potential Relief from Trade Agreement Details

Some hope comes from a new U.S.-EU trade deal. The deal sets a 15% tax on autos, but it takes effect only after EU law cuts extra industrial fees. This rule may soon help trade run with more clear steps.

Weak German Economy Adds Pressure

The wider German money scene also shows strain. The nation’s gross domestic product shrank in 2023 and 2024. The start of 2025 was weak. After a small gain of 0.3% in the first quarter, the second quarter dropped by 0.3%.

Brorhilker sees lasting stress on exports toward both the U.S. and China. U.S. taxes slow exports while soft demand from China adds to the challenge.

Industry Restructuring Expected to Continue

Large German companies now cut costs and rearrange work structures to face these hard times. Brorhilker says these steps will mean more job cuts in the auto field.


The German auto industry stands as a key part of the country’s work mix. It now faces a path of deep change as it shifts with new money facts, trade rules, steep competition, and rising needs for electric car work.

Keywords: German auto sector, job cuts, economic woes, Volkswagen, trade policy, U.S. tariffs, electric vehicles, China competition, EY report, industry restructuring

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From the ‘Big Stay’ to a ‘No-Hire, No-Fire’ Freeze: How Labor Markets Are Shifting in 2025

The labor world in the United States and the United Kingdom is changing fast. Covid-19 left a mark with many workers leaving their jobs. After what many called the “Great Resignation”, 2025 now shows a new trend. Workers hold on to their jobs, and firms slow new hiring and cuts. This change brings what some call the “Great Stay” and a freeze on both adding and letting go of staff.

The Pandemic-Era Shakeup: Great Resignation Recap

At the height of Covid-19, workers moved frequently. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nearly 50.5 million Americans quit in 2022, up from 47.8 million in 2021. People left to seek better pay, work from home options, and more satisfying roles.

Enter the Great Stay: Workers Holding Firm

In 2025, the scene flips. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, names this stage the “Great Stay.” She points out that workers have the jobs they want. They keep the benefits from remote work and better pay while staying in a role longer than usual.

“People are staying put. They’re not leaving. And they’re staying put in sectors like IT and software development, where you’d usually expect a lot of movement,” Richardson said in a CNBC interview.

Workers now keep close to their roles, a clear break from the past chaos.

Employers’ Cautious Approach: No-Hire, No-Fire Market

Firms now act with care in a time of uncertain money. They stop new hiring and avoid layoffs. Richardson describes the scene as a “no-hire, no-fire” situation:

  • Hiring decisions put on hold: Companies unsure of the economic path wait before adding more staff.
  • Low layoff rates: Even with few hires, early claims for jobless benefits stay low. This shows that firms hold on to their staff.

This pause is a watchful step. Firms do not plan to cut numbers; they wait to see what comes next.

Signs of Cooling in Labor Markets

Recent numbers tell a clear story. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls grew only 73,000 in July 2025. This number falls short of many predictions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. These numbers may shape the Federal Reserve’s talk of interest rate cuts in their September meeting.

Parallel Trends in the United Kingdom

Workers in the UK face a similar scene. After record-high job openings in 2021 and early 2022 with nearly 1.3 million vacancies, the scene changed in mid-2025. The Office for National Statistics showed a 5.8% drop in job vacancies between May and July 2025 in 16 of 18 sectors.

The ONS also noted that:

  • Many companies are not recruiting or replacing staff who leave.
  • People aged 16-64 see a rise in doing neither work nor job hunting, with inactivity near 21%.

Monica George Michail from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research sees higher labor costs and tax and wage rises as part of the reason. Neil Carberry, CEO of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, sees the same trend as a “Big Stay” like in the U.S. He notes that job growth depends on economic strength and a firm business mood. With both low now, companies wait for clearer signs before moving ahead.

What Does This Mean for Workers and Employers?

  • For workers: The Great Stay means more job security. This low movement may strengthen how workers speak up for better terms, but it can also make it hard to change roles.
  • For employers: Holding off on hiring shows care in tough times. Yet, this pause might slow growth and new ideas when firms need fresh talent.

Conclusion

The shift from the past churn of the Great Resignation to today’s Great Stay and the no-change hiring mode shows how doubt about money shapes work trends. Workers stick with their roles, and firms keep a close eye on any changes. This quiet mode may continue as 2025 unfolds. Leaders in government and commerce must soon watch these trends to keep balance while seeking a fresh burst of growth.


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Recession Specials Resurface as a Sign of Waning Consumer Sentiment

August 23, 2025 — Uncertainty grows as the economy stalls. Concern spreads. Many US businesses do simple acts. They bring back recession specials. These offers help them hold on to buyers who worry. In this way, the mood of shoppers now seems like that during the Great Recession nearly twenty years ago.

The Return of Recession Specials

During the Great Recession in the late 2000s, many bars and restaurants used low-price menus or “recession specials” to fight hard times. Media and online talk placed these deals in the spotlight. A 2008 Grub Street write-up called it “Your Definitive Guide to Recession Specials.” A 2009 New York Times story listed special deals at New York City restaurants.

Now, in 2025, similar acts appear. Worry grows over tariffs and a slowing economy. Several spots in cities like New York and San Francisco now run budget-friendly deals that they call recession specials:

  • Clever Blend, a coffee shop in Brooklyn, tags a "$6 gelato and espresso recession special."
  • Wicked Willy’s, a bar in Manhattan, runs a "Recession Pop Party" where guests join in despite economic stress.
  • Market Hotel, a Brooklyn concert hall, hosts events that play with economic themes. Their invite reads: "dress like rent’s due and you’re dancing through it."
  • In San Francisco’s Bay Area, the Super Duper burger chain sells a “Recession Combo.” This combo gives a seasonal Oklahoma-style smash burger, fries, and a drink for $10. It saves buyers $5 compared to the normal price.

Why the Recession Burger?

Ed Onas, the Vice President of Operations at Super Duper, tells us the name is not born from fresh fear. He points to the burger’s old roots in the Great Depression. Back then, adding sliced onions to beef made the meal stretch further. The name fits the discount. It shows a response to high inflation and gives real worth for money.

This deal grew fast. It topped lists on a local San Francisco forum, with many votes and talks. The trend grew so strong that Super Duper now plans to keep the Recession Burger on its menu.

Consumer Sentiment: A Growing Concern

Hints of the public mood show low consumer trust. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 in August 2025 from 61.7 in July. This drop builds on a waning trend seen over the year.

Joanne Hsu, who leads consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, lists causes:

  • Many see an economy that slows further, with rising prices and poor business work.
  • The labor market may weaken, and job loss may rise.
  • These fears touch all age groups. Young Americans feel the weight of economic risk as much as older ones.

Hsu warns that low trust and worries over steady income may make buyers spend less. This drop in spending matters for the health of the economy.

What This Means for Businesses and Consumers

The return of recession specials is more than a simple sales trick. It marks the state of the economic mood. Shops and venues in fast-changing areas, such as food and fun, may use these deals more as buyers keep close watch on cash and budgets.

For shoppers, these deals give some ease. They provide cheap choices when funds worry. The trend also shows we must keep a sharp eye on the economic road ahead.


As plans shift and fear of financial strain grows, the "recession special" may come back again in many spots—a sign that both sellers and buyers prepare for hard times.


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Spain’s Economy Thrives Amid European Challenges: Key Drivers Behind the Boom

Spain’s economy shows strong growth and grit in 2025. It beats expectations as it works fast among European peers. New data show Spain’s GDP beat targets by growing 0.7% in Q2, beyond a forecast of 0.6%. This work puts Spain first in GDP growth in the euro zone, with an annual pace near 2.5% compared to France’s 0.6%, Germany’s 0%, and Italy’s 0.7%.

Key Contributors to Spain’s Economic Success

Several key points help Spain’s economic climb:

  • Strong Investment and Consumption: Private spending and public work push growth. The EU’s Next Generation EU funds back these moves.
  • Booming Tourism Sector: Tourism adds about 12% to GDP now. The travel field bounced back after the pandemic. Spain draws guests with low costs and rich culture.
  • Growing Workforce Through Immigration: New residents help the labor pool grow. Almost 90% of this rise comes from migration. The state has given nearly a million work visas and permits in the next three years.
  • Diversification Beyond Tourism: Fields like IT, finance, and other services add export value. They bring in more than €100 billion, outdoing travel income.
  • Low Energy Costs: Years of green power work cut electricity prices by 40%. This drop makes production cheaper and pulls in investors to areas such as solar power and batteries.

Tourism and Immigration: Catalysts Amid Challenges

Tourism boosts jobs, as the work force grew by 9.7% in 2024. Yet high visitor numbers have stirred local protests, especially in cities like Barcelona.

Immigration stays a key factor. While some nations close doors, Spain welcomes extra workers from Latin America and North Africa. These workers fill needed roles, especially in services, and help hold down wage rises even as prices rise in Europe.

Benefits from EU Recovery Funds and Foreign Direct Investment

Spain holds €163 billion in EU recovery funds, second only to Italy. Roughly 70% of these funds—around €55 billion—go to new investments in modern work, especially in clean power and services beyond travel.

Foreign money also flows in, as Spain ranks fourth in the EU for such investments. China plans an €11 billion spend in 2025 with 33 new projects, while US investment stays ahead overall. The focus remains on green power, new transport, and new tech.

Government Perspective and Outlook

Spain’s Finance Minister, Carlos Cuerpo, calls the nation “a great outlier” in growth and appeal. Yet the team faces these tasks:

  • Balancing Wage Growth with Living Costs: Pay must match rising prices.
  • Addressing Youth Unemployment: Spain now shows the highest youth work rate in the EU.
  • Managing Public Debt and Deficit: Solid choices are needed for long-term health.
  • Navigating Political Divides: Political splits may shape future plans.

Innovation in Renewable Energy and Industry

Spain now hosts major work in solar energy. A China-based firm, Arctech, begins a European project in Madrid. The nation uses clean power to keep bills low and draw in jobs like electric car making. For instance, Stellantis and CATL planned a $4.3 billion lithium battery plant in Zaragoza. This plan shows Spain’s growing role in green industry chains.


Spain’s economy moves forward with high consumption, smart investing, extra workers, a recovered travel scene, and low power costs. This mix makes Spain a top spot for international investors and businesses even as it meets social and political tests.

As Spain uses these strengths, it may serve as a model for recovery and steady growth in Europe.


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Chocolate Prices Set to Climb Further in 2025, But a Smoother Outlook Expected in 2026

Chocolate fans face more price rises this year. The cocoa market shows a lag. Retailers see its mark on costs. Industry experts state that prices may hold steady by next Easter.

Sustained Price Pressure from Cocoa Market Challenges

Cocoa prices have jumped in recent years. In late 2024, they hit highs. Bad weather, pest problems, and a tight supply in West Africa pushed them up. West Africa produces about 75% of the world’s cocoa.

These shifts matched a rise in retail costs. Costs went up for buyers. A 2024 survey by UK consumer group Which? showed that chocolate had the highest rate of price rise—11%—in grocery stores. In the United States, favorites such as Hershey’s Kisses saw prices climb about 12% across one year.

Adalbert Lechner, head of Swiss maker Lindt & Sprüngli, told CNBC in April that he does not see cocoa prices falling back to old levels.

Current Market Trends and Consumer Impact

Cocoa futures dropped from $8,177 per metric ton in January to about $7,855 in August. Yet these numbers stay well above the figures from three years past, when cocoa was roughly $2,374 per metric ton.

Tracey Allen, an Agricultural Commodities Strategist at J.P. Morgan, explained on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that buyers still pay for the 2024 cocoa surge. “We’ve got a bit of a hangover happening here,” Allen remarked. The high costs built up in late 2024. Now, these costs pass to consumers. The passing on of costs keeps prices high when cocoa bean stocks drop.

Hope on the Horizon for 2026

There is some hope that prices will ease by next Easter. J.P. Morgan’s report points out several factors that might soften the market:

  • Better weather in West Africa
  • More cocoa coming from new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil
  • Reduced demand from chocolate makers

Allen mentioned that while prices may stay “structurally higher for longer,” some relief might come as cocoa stocks improve.

Additional Pressures on Chocolate Prices

Hamad Hussain, a Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that supply issues stick around beyond weather effects. He noted problems with long-term productivity, plant diseases, and less investment in cocoa-growing areas like Ivory Coast and Ghana, the top cocoa producers. These factors make supplies tight and prices high.

Beside the cocoa market, buyers also bear other cost increases:

  • In the UK, higher minimum wages and increased employee costs push food prices, including chocolate, upward.
  • In the US, tariffs push chocolate prices higher in the near term.

Hussain said, “The result is that buyers are likely to face high chocolate prices for some time.”

What This Means for Consumers

To sum up:

  • Chocolate prices will keep rising or stay high through 2025 because of last year’s cocoa price rises.
  • Better cocoa stocks and softer demand might bring some ease by Easter 2026.
  • Buyer’s costs also rise because of wage hikes and tariffs in the UK and US.
  • Cocoa prices may settle at levels that stay higher than in the past decade.

Chocolate fans might pay more this year. However, the view for next spring may bring a sweeter deal.


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