Tag Archive for: Economic

Economic Data Drought: What to Expect as the Government Reopens and Backlogs Clear

Economic Data Releases Paused by Government Shutdown: When to Expect Key Reports

The U.S. government shutdown delays key economic data. It holds back payroll numbers, job figures, and inflation measures. Congress works to end the shutdown. All eyes now turn to when data will resume and what the figures may show about the economy.

Government Shutdown Impact on Economic Data

Federal agencies compile and release economic statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce now work in a limited way. Their usual reports on payrolls, price levels, retail sales, income, and other economic markers for September and October now delay.

Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker noted a backlog in a recent note:
“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October. Though the shutdown nears its end, the agencies need time to address the backlog of releases.”

Timeline for Data Release Resumption

The government is set to reopen soon. The Senate passed a stop-gap spending bill and now awaits the President’s signature. When the government reopens, agencies will work to publish the delayed data.

  • Early next week: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will share an updated schedule for delayed reports.
  • October Jobs Report: This report may appear soon, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week.
  • November reports: Payroll and inflation data might face another week’s delay.

Key Upcoming Economic Reports Delayed by Shutdown

The delayed reports include:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls – a measure of job trends.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) – tests of price changes.
  • Personal Spending and Income – views of consumer activity.
  • Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders – signs of product demand.
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a check of quarterly growth.
  • Employment Cost Index and JOLTS – views of labor market details.

What the Data Might Show

Analysts believe the released figures will show a slowing job market and high inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the October payroll report to mark a loss of around 50,000 jobs. Other figures also point to a cooling market.

Inflation stays above the 2% target, yet officials see slow moderation. At a news meeting on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said:
“Labor market conditions are cooling slowly, and inflation stays quite high.”

He added that private-sector data from the shutdown does not change the overall view since September.

Broader Economic Growth Outlook

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows third-quarter growth near 4%. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter growth forecast to 1.3%. This view puts the economy at about a 2% annual gain in 2025. ### Final Thoughts

Short-term delays in data raise problems for policymakers, investors, and analysts. Still, the main trends in jobs, inflation, and growth hold steady. When agencies resume work, clearer details about the economy will come forth to help in making sound decisions.

As of November 11, 2025, readers can expect a gradual return of key economic data in the days following the government’s reopening, with reports expected to confirm the trends seen during the data freeze.

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Unveiling the ‘Ghost Job’ Dilemma: The Hidden Crisis in America’s Job Market

‘Ghost Job’ Postings Add Another Layer of Uncertainty to Stalled U.S. Jobs Picture

Published November 11, 2025 – Updated 57 minutes ago

By Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom

—

At first glance, the employment numbers show many jobs for everyone. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) counts high job openings over many years. Those counts are near or above the number of people without jobs. A closer look finds a hidden problem: many postings show jobs that never fill.

What Are Ghost Jobs?

“Ghost jobs” are postings that look real yet stay open for a long time. This pattern tires job seekers and twists the official numbers. Since early 2024, data show postings exceed actual hires by more than 2.2 million each month. This gap means many listings are not filled.

Jasmine Escalera, a career expert from MyPerfectResume and author of a report on “the ghost job economy,” explains:

“The U.S. labor market looks strong on paper. Millions of openings show a chance for work, yet many are not real jobs. The ghost job issue fills hope, wastes time, and confuses the data that guide policy decisions.”

The Official Numbers vs. Reality

  • Job postings hit over 12 million in March 2022. They outnumbered workers available by more than 2-to-1.
  • In August 2025—the last month with data because of the government shutdown—there were 7.2 million openings. Actual hires numbered 5.1 million. The gap narrowed but is still large.
  • The ratio of openings to workers went from about 1.8-to-1 at the top to roughly 1.4-to-1 now. This shrink shows fewer ghost jobs but does not remove them.

Remember the two ideas in these numbers:

  • Listings show a snapshot, the stock of positions open right now.
  • Hires show the flow, the count of workers added each month.

When jobs stay posted for many months, employers keep them to build a list for later. Still, this does not explain all the ghost jobs.

Contributing Factors

Several trends keep ghost jobs alive:

  • U.S. rules limit foreign workers, which means fewer candidates for tough positions.
  • A report from the National Federation of Independent Business finds that 88% of applicants for small business jobs lack needed skills. This gap slows filling roles.
  • The market now slows down. Hiring pace is low and fewer people move between jobs; the quits rate has dropped more than 30% since March 2022, when many left their jobs.
  • Government disputes and a shutdown have made it hard to collect clear data.

Real-World Impact and Response

Ghost jobs affect many people:

  • Job seekers waste time and energy chasing roles that do not lead to work.
  • Employers may hurt their image when many posts go unfilled, warning off future candidates.
  • Policymakers and economists struggle with skewed data when they plan for the economy. The Federal Reserve studies BLS data closely to judge job market tightness and rising prices.

A petition on Change.org against ghost job listings has earned nearly 50,000 signatures.

Escalera states:

“Until job posts match real hiring, many will keep chasing work that is not there, and trust in how the market works will fall.”

Looking Ahead

As the U.S. job market changes, stopping ghost jobs becomes key for clear data and trust. New steps might focus on making job posts accurate, improving skills for workers, and fixing how data is gathered.

For now, the ghost job problem stays a hidden weight on the labor market, adding another twist to workers’ chances and policy plans.

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Reported by Jeff Cox for CNBC. Data sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and national labor reports.

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Wealthy Investors Thrive Amid Economic Uncertainty: Will a Labor Market Shift Derail Stock Gains?

Stocks Support Wealthy Consumers’ Outlook Amid Economic Concerns, But Labor Market Weakness Could Shift Sentiment

November 11, 2025 — Stocks hit record highs. Investors and economists weigh stock-driven hope against a weak U.S. economy. Data shows that stock gains build a positive view for some. A softer labor market may soon shift that view.

Consumer Sentiment Diverges Sharply by Wealth

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell over 6% in November. The measure sank near past lows and dropped about 30% from last year. Consumers fret over a government shutdown hurting everyday life.

High-wealth investors feel better. Their outlook climbed by 11%. A rising stock market pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new marks.

A K-Shaped Economic Recovery?

Some economists call this a K-shaped path. Well-off groups thrive while others work hard and face losses. Consumers with rich assets enjoy rising stocks and home prices. They keep spending and help company profits.

Joe Brusuelas at RSM notes rich buyers stay strong. Data shows stress among those lower on the income ladder. They hold few stocks and do not get gains from modern technology firms. This gap brings very different economic lives.

“Higher equity values hide the change happening in the market. This change does not help those who work in older fields,” he said.

Housing Wealth Adds Cushion

Home prices keep on rising. Low mortgage rates from the pandemic boost the wealth of higher-income households. Jeffrey Roach from LPL Financial says these gains add a safety net for spending—even if the stock surge slows.

The Key Role of the Labor Market

Even with good market news, the labor market holds the key. Labor data is paused due to the shutdown but will return soon. Its report may change market views fast.

Luke Tilley at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust warns:

“If you start getting negative job prints, the jig is up.”

Small businesses now show shrinking payrolls. If jobs drop further, the optimism built by stock gains among the wealthy may vanish and harm the wider economy.

Market and Economic Outlook

  • The S&P 500 has risen more than 16% in 2025 (before dividends), while the Nasdaq is up nearly 22%, driven by interest in AI technology.
  • Investor views follow prospects shaped by policy and expected business benefits.
  • Lower immigration rates may ease re-entry into the workforce, helping incomes if demand holds.
  • A significant slowdown in jobs could trigger a market drop and a shift in economic sentiment.

Conclusion

Today, the U.S. economy stands on the spending power of top earners. Their strength in stocks and housing may hide the job struggles felt by most. The future depends on new labor data and the pace of job growth.

Investors, policymakers, and economists watch the labor market closely—a downturn there might end the stock-driven optimism and change the economy’s path.

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Nexperia’s Parent Company Soars 6% as China and Netherlands Begin Diplomatic Thaw Over Chip Exports

Nexperia Parent Company Shares Surge 6% on Signs of Eased Tensions Between Beijing and the Netherlands

November 9, 2025 – Shares of Wingtech Technology, the Shanghai-based parent of semiconductor maker Nexperia, jumped up to 6.4% on Monday. Beijing sent a clear sign that trade problems with the Netherlands are easing. This change helped calm worries about a global chip shortage that might hit the automotive and tech industries.

Background: Trade Dispute Over Nexperia

Nexperia works from Nijmegen in the Netherlands and makes chips for industrial, computing, mobile, and consumer electronics. Its parent, Wingtech Technology, stays in China. The Dutch government took charge of Nexperia on September 30, 2025 because it feared the company might lean more towards China as political tensions grew.

Beijing then stopped some chip parts from the Chinese plant. This act raised fears that the flow of chips might break down. The steps now in play helped ease a growing alarm seen across major industries.

Recent Developments: Changing Rules and Talks

On Sunday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it had made it easier to send out certain chips from Nexperia’s Chinese plants. The ministry urged the European Union to push the Dutch side to remove limits on the chips.

Beijing also said it would send team members to meet after the Dutch asked for a discussion. The Chinese side hoped the Netherlands would share clear ideas and take solid steps soon to fix the row over Nexperia.

Dutch Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans said on Thursday that chip shipments from Nexperia would soon arrive again for European and global customers. He praised the clear nature of talks with Chinese officials and said the discussion fit well with tips from the European Commission and China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Market and Industry Impact

Wingtech Technology’s shares built on a nearly 10% jump seen late last Friday when early signs of calm appeared. Car makers and tech firms that need semiconductors felt relief as this news came in. Companies such as Volkswagen warned of risk to production, and Honda had already lowered profit guesses after factory shutdowns hit chip supplies.

Other top car makers, including Stellantis, keep a close eye on the case. They set up special teams to plan new ways to get chips and avoid stops in work.

Even as the change looks good now, experts note that stocks remain low. The main management dispute between the Dutch and Chinese parts of Nexperia is not yet solved. Analysts from Barclays say that while chip shipments from China are back, the ease may not stay until the dispute is fully fixed.

Geopolitical Context

The problem with Nexperia ties into wider trade issues between China and the U.S. After the U.S. moved late in September to put more Wingtech firms on its blacklist, Beijing and Washington agreed on a partial pause in trade limits on October 30. This pause gave both sides room to remove some limits.

Neo Wang, a China strategist at Evercore ISI, said Beijing does not want to risk its connection with the Netherlands since the country plays an important role. The Dutch government oversees ASML Holding, a top supplier of advanced chip-making tools. This link is key in the U.S.-China talks about high-tech trade.

Outlook

The new rules and talks give hope for fewer chip export limits. Yet, many in the automotive and chip fields watch the scene carefully. This news shows how global chip flows depend on clear and steady dialogue between countries.

For ongoing updates on this and related market news, stay tuned to CNBC and industry reports.

Key Takeaways:

  • Wingtech Technology shares climbed over 6% after Beijing eased chip export limits.
  • China and the Netherlands set up more talks as trade tensions ease.
  • The Dutch government’s earlier steps over Nexperia sparked fears of chip shortages.
  • Car makers like Volkswagen and Honda have seen problems because of chip supply stops.
  • The story ties into larger U.S.-China trade and tech issues.
  • Experts warn that while relief is here in the short term, the deeper dispute is still open.

Source: CNBC, November 9, 2025

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Consumer Sentiment Dips Amid Ongoing Government Shutdown: A Cautionary Economic Shift

Consumer Sentiment Nears Historic Lows Amid Growing Shutdown Concerns

U.S. consumer confidence falls. Worry about a shutdown grows. A recent University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment near a three-year low. It nears levels last seen in the early 1980s.

Declining Confidence Amid Shutdown Uncertainty

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November drops to 50.3. It falls 6.2% from October and 30% from last year. Economists expected a score of 53.0. The lower score shows widespread economic fear.
This score is the second-lowest since 1978. It matches the low seen in June 2022 when inflation hit a peak in the last four decades.

Measuring the Impact: Current Conditions and Future Expectations

The survey splits consumer sentiment into two parts:

  • Current Conditions Index: Drops about 11% to 52.3. This is the lowest reading since records began in 1951.
  • Future Expectations Index: Falls 2.6% to 49.0. This represents a 36.3% drop compared with last year.

These numbers show that people of different ages, incomes, and political views all feel the strain.

Shutdown Concerns Outweigh Market Highs

The stock market now hits record highs. Still, the shutdown goes on for over a month. Many worry for the economy.
Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, says fear about the situation in Washington shapes how people feel.

“Consumers worry about bad effects on the economy,” Hsu said. “This month, the drop in sentiment was clear across different ages, incomes, and political views.”

Financial Strain Felt Broadly

Hard times hit many. Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, tells us that tighter money conditions affect federal workers, recipients of food aid, and middle-income Americans alike.
Federal employees face delayed pay, and food assistance meets growing demand. These issues add to economic uncertainty and difficulties.

Inflation Outlook and Data Challenges

Consumer sentiment drops while inflation views change. The one-year inflation forecast climbs a bit to 4.7%. The five-year forecast falls 0.3 points to 3.6%.
With government agencies stopping most data releases during the shutdown, surveys such as this help track economic feelings in real time.

Disparities Among Consumer Groups

Not every consumer feels the same. Those with strong stock holdings see sentiment rise by 11%. Wealthier people with investments feel less of the shutdown’s impact than others.

As the shutdown goes on, many Americans face an uncertain future. The near-record low consumer sentiment shows real worry with effects for the whole economy.

For more updates on economic trends and market moves during the shutdown, stay with trusted financial news sources.

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Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Expresses Caution on Rate Cuts Amid Data Blackout from Government Shutdown

Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee Voices Caution on Further Rate Cuts Amid Government Shutdown

November 6, 2025 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke on rate cuts during the shutdown. He spoke with clear concern. His words show a link between missing inflation data and the need for care. Goolsbee noted that key inflation figures are hidden by the shutdown. He spoke with CNBC about risks when rate cuts come without clear signs of price changes.

Inflation Data Blackout Fuels Caution

Goolsbee’s worry grows from lost inflation numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not post the October consumer price index, which we expected next week. The CPI helps us see the move of prices.
The BLS did give us the September numbers because Social Security rules needed them. That data shows inflation near a 3% yearly rise. This rise exceeds the Fed’s aim of a 2% change. The Commerce Department has not yet shared its data on spending costs. That makes it hard to see the full picture.

Goolsbee said, “If there are problems developing on the inflation side, it’s going to be a fair amount of time before we see that.” His words tie missing data to delays in understanding our economic state.

Labor Market Remains Stable According to Chicago Fed

Even when inflation numbers are missing, the Chicago Fed shows a steady job scene. Their dashboard shows the unemployment rate at 4.36% in October. This mark was one point higher than in September. It also shows hiring and firings stay near the same rates.

Goolsbee spoke of the clear signals from job data. He pointed out that jobs show changes fast. This clear job link makes him slow on fast rate cuts that depend on recent inflation numbers. In the months before the shutdown, core inflation went at a 3.6% yearly rate.

Balancing Act: Medium-Term Rate Outlook

Goolsbee stands for lower rates over time. He also wants care when data is thin. He said, “Medium-run, I’m not hawkish on rates. I believe that the settling point for rates is going to be a fair bit below where it is today. When it’s foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down.”
His words tie future cuts to the need for clear figures before we act.

Upcoming Federal Reserve Decisions

Goolsbee will vote at the December FOMC meeting. At that time, members will decide on more rate cuts after recent ones. Later in 2026, he will shift to an alternate role. He is set to return as a voter in 2027. —

For investors, policymakers, and analysts, Goolsbee’s careful tone signals the hard work of managing policy when the government runs short of data. His words tie clear data to the need for measured moves while keeping the growth path steady amid uncertain times.

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October Job Cuts Surge to 22-Year High: A Warning Sign for the Labor Market Amid AI Disruptions

Job Cuts Surge in October to Highest Level in 22 Years Amid AI Boom, Challenger Reports

November 6, 2025 — In October, employers cut jobs fast. Companies reduce their staff as AI grows in use. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas finds changes in the work market.

Sharp Increase in Layoffs

In October, employers cut 153,074 jobs. This jump sits at 183% more than in September and 175% above last October. It is the highest toll for an October since 2003. These cuts add to a record year for job loss since 2009. Andy Challenger, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer and expert on work trends, said:
"Like in 2003, a new technology has shifted the scene. When job creation stays very low, making cuts in the last quarter leaves a poor view."

Technology Sector Hit Hardest

The tech field lost 33,281 jobs this October. That number is nearly six times higher than September’s count. Many firms mix AI into how they work, so they change roles and reduce headcount.

Other sectors with rising layoffs include:

  • Consumer products: 3,409 job cuts
  • Nonprofits: 27,651 layoffs so far this year—a 419% jump from the same time in 2024

Year-to-Date Trends and Broader Implications

Year-to-date, there have been 1.1 million job cuts in 2025. This total is up 65% from last year and marks the highest amount since 2020. October alone had the largest monthly cut in the fourth quarter since 2008. Several factors drive this trend:

• AI use leads to many roles going away.
• We see slower spending by buyers and firms, which cuts revenue.
• Rising costs drive companies to reduce spending and stop hiring.

Such trends slow the pace for laid-off workers to find new jobs and make the market more soft.

Contrasting Data and Economic Context

Challenger’s report shows large cuts, yet other data give a mixed view. For example:

• The government recently paused data work because of issues in Washington, D.C.
• Weekly state jobless claims have not spiked.
• Payroll processor ADP shows a net gain of 42,000 private jobs in October.

Federal Reserve officials express concerns about a softer job market. They have already cut their main interest rate twice since last month and might lower it once more in December to help steady the economy.

Summary

October figures bring clear signs of change in the U.S. job market as AI use grows. Some industries shrink after the high hiring seen during the pandemic. New tech and rising costs drive many layoffs. It is important to watch these trends closely, as they will guide future economic policy and recovery in the months ahead.

Reported by Jeff Cox
For CNBC, November 6, 2025

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Bank of England’s November Rate Decision: A Critical Moment Ahead of the Autumn Budget

Bank of England’s November 2025 Rate Decision: A Close Call Ahead of Autumn Budget

LONDON — The Bank of England (BOE) is set to decide on interest rates this Thursday. This is the last policy meeting before the Autumn Budget on November 26, 2025. Most market economists see the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee keep the rate at 4%. Uncertainty remains as the UK shows mixed economic signals and new tax plans.

An Uncertain Decision

Dean Turner, Chief Euro Zone and U.K. Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, calls the meeting “one of the hardest to call for some time.” He says that a rate cut is expected when economic signals shift, but the timing is hard to guess.

"It is clear that when policy is tight, inflation falls, and growth slows, rates will drop. The challenge is to know when."

Most experts expect the committee to keep rates unchanged this week. Yet, banks like Barclays, Nomura, Mizuho, and Unicredit point to a possible drop to 3.75%. Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank, described the decision as “very finely balanced.”

Outlook for Rate Changes

If the BOE holds rates on Thursday, experts think cuts may follow, possibly as soon as December 2025, with more moves in the next year. They see signs in factors such as:

  • Inflation, which stayed at 3.8% in September for three months.
  • Weak labor data, with unemployment possibly rising to 4.9%.
  • Slowing wage growth that meets the BOE’s targets.

Oxford Economics says most committee members wait until data shows a clear trend before changing rates. Allan Monks, Chief U.K. Economist at JP Morgan, explained:

“Further drops in inflation and labor numbers will guide the next move.”

Turner adds that signals after the meeting might point to cuts by February 2026 or even as early as December. At that time, the Autumn Budget and its report on economic impact should be available.

Impact of the Upcoming Autumn Budget

This decision happens just before the Autumn Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves may raise taxes to close a gap that is estimated at between £20-50 billion ($20-$65.2 billion). These tax changes, including increases in income tax, might cool consumer spending and ease inflation.

Economist Andrew Wishart of Berenberg commented:

"If income tax rises, it will add pressure on household incomes already hurt by high inflation and slow pay growth. In turn, demand may drop and inflation ease."

Early tightening of fiscal policy could lead the BOE to cut rates by 25 basis points twice next year, which might bring the rate down to 3.50%. A further drop to 3.25% in 2026 is also possible.

Summary

  • BOE November 2025 meeting: Likely to hold rates at 4%, though a cut to 3.75% is possible.
  • Future rate cuts expected: May start in December 2025 or February 2026, as weak growth and falling inflation guide policy.
  • Autumn Budget impact: Expected tax hikes may lower consumer spending and ease inflation, setting the stage for rate cuts.
  • Market sentiment: Bank officials prefer cautious moves and clear signs in the data before lowering rates.

The BOE’s decision and stance ahead of the fiscal plans will be closely watched by investors, businesses, and policy experts as the UK finds its way through a delicate recovery amid inflation and tighter finances.

Stay tuned for updates on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and its impact on the UK economy.

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The Advertising Paradox: Fueling AI’s Boom While Posing Existential Risks to the Economy

Op-ed: Advertising – The Driving Force Behind the AI Boom and an Existential Risk

Published Nov 5, 2025 – by Joe Marchese, Executive Chairman, Human Ventures

The rise in artificial intelligence changes markets and money systems. Spending and tech moves bind closely. OpenAI launched an AI browser, and that act quickens the AI race. Look closer and see advertising as the spark that drives both fast growth and rising risks.

The AI Boom and its Economic Impact

Money flows into AI now match the levels of war spending. Billions back new systems and chip work. One Harvard economist links 92% of U.S. growth in early 2025 to AI spending. This tie binds spending and economic lift.

Advertising: The Internet’s Business Engine

Advertising built the roads we travel online. Google first used ads in search and showed how word pairs connect people to products. Meta created an ad system that counts clicks and user focus. Amazon spices its sales with ads, so retailers like Walmart, Kroger, Uber, and DoorDash start their own channels.

AI helps sort search terms, craft suggestions, and predict what buyers will do. That link makes commerce grow beyond basic ads. Giants such as Google, Meta, and Amazon earn much from ads, then use that money to build more AI systems.

The Existential Risk to Advertising Models

The same AI that supports these firms may shake the ad model. AI can change how people seek info, shop, or browse content. Imagine if answers come fast without any clicks; if shopping online shifts in style; if content flows straight to you. Such shifts cut short the old ad chains holding up their profits.

Why Are Big Tech Giants Betting on AI?

Big firms chase more than growth. They search for machines that handle many tasks better than humans. They also work to keep their ad methods secure. Sam Altman at OpenAI called some new AI systems “first at-scale misaligned AIs” when they change ad feeds, a sign their models face new tests.

Companies such as OpenAI and Microsoft, which do not count most on ads, stir AI progress and mix the market further.

What Lies Ahead?

This moment in AI is not like past tech booms. The top firms now have strong profits and steady ad links. But if AI shifts or cracks the ad method, market shocks may come hard and fast. Google, Meta, and Amazon seem best set to adjust and shape fresh ideas. They have tied AI into their ads for many years. Still, a new way to link search, shopping, and online use may need fresh cash flows that step away from ads.

The Hidden Truth Behind AI Investment Spending

Every dollar spent on new AI tools may work not just to find new income but to hold tight the large sums earned from ads. That bond is key to seeing why AI shapes today’s markets and brings big risks ahead.

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October Job Growth Surprises with 42,000 New Private Payrolls, Easing Labor Market Concerns

Private Payrolls Show Unexpected Growth in October, ADP Reports

ADP’s report shows that private payrolls added 42,000 jobs in October. The report states that the count nearly doubled the 22,000 jobs many experts had predicted. Last month had fewer private jobs, but this month the numbers grew.

Key Highlights from the ADP Report

• Private companies raised payrolls by 42,000 jobs in October.
• This number beats the expected 22,000 jobs.
• ADP revised September’s numbers; the loss was adjusted from 29,000 jobs to 32,000 jobs.
• Big companies, with 250 or more employees, brought 76,000 jobs in October.
• Small companies, with fewer than 250 employees, lost 34,000 jobs.

Sector Performance and Job Distribution

Job changes varied by sector in October.

• The trade, transportation, and utilities area added 47,000 jobs.
• Education and health services put in 26,000 new roles.
• Financial activities climbed by 11,000 jobs.
• Information services lost 17,000 roles.
• Other sectors lost jobs: professional and business services dropped 15,000, other services fell 13,000, and manufacturing slipped by 3,000 jobs.

Concerns Over Small Business Employment

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson spoke about the loss at the small-company level. She pointed out that small businesses help create three out of four U.S. jobs. In October, only large companies added jobs. Richardson said, "Big companies make headlines, but small companies drive hiring. That weakness shows why the recovery remains slow."

Wage Growth Continues Despite Slow Job Gains

Wages grew alongside the small rise in jobs.

• Workers who kept their jobs saw their pay climb by 4.5% year-over-year.
• Those who switched jobs enjoyed a 6.7% pay rise, slightly better than last month.

Richardson noted that the average growth for private jobs now stands at about 60,000 per month in the later part of 2025. ### Impact of Government Shutdown on Labor Market Data

The ADP report usually comes before the government’s own nonfarm payroll numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This time, a government shutdown stopped the BLS from gathering data. Experts had expected a drop of 60,000 jobs and a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. This gap now makes other data points more important.

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook

Officials at the Federal Reserve have shown more worry over the health of the job market. They now focus on it along with inflation. Last week, the Fed lowered its key interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75%-4% in a bid to keep the economy steady.

More Data to Watch

Since the government will not release its numbers for October, analysts now check other signals:

• Challenger, Gray & Christmas will share their count of announced layoffs on Thursday.
• State-level jobless claims will show recent changes in payrolls.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, coming Friday, will show how people feel about the economy.
• Data from Indeed shows job postings are at their lowest since February 2021, hinting that employers are cautious when hiring.

Even as October’s numbers show gains, the mix of strong and weak areas means the job market still faces challenges. Experts and government officials plan to watch these many signals as they study where the economy might go next.

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