Tag Archive for: Economic

October Job Cuts Surge to 22-Year High: A Warning Sign for the Labor Market Amid AI Disruptions

Job Cuts Surge in October to Highest Level in 22 Years Amid AI Boom, Challenger Reports

November 6, 2025 — In October, employers cut jobs fast. Companies reduce their staff as AI grows in use. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas finds changes in the work market.

Sharp Increase in Layoffs

In October, employers cut 153,074 jobs. This jump sits at 183% more than in September and 175% above last October. It is the highest toll for an October since 2003. These cuts add to a record year for job loss since 2009. Andy Challenger, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer and expert on work trends, said:
"Like in 2003, a new technology has shifted the scene. When job creation stays very low, making cuts in the last quarter leaves a poor view."

Technology Sector Hit Hardest

The tech field lost 33,281 jobs this October. That number is nearly six times higher than September’s count. Many firms mix AI into how they work, so they change roles and reduce headcount.

Other sectors with rising layoffs include:

  • Consumer products: 3,409 job cuts
  • Nonprofits: 27,651 layoffs so far this year—a 419% jump from the same time in 2024

Year-to-Date Trends and Broader Implications

Year-to-date, there have been 1.1 million job cuts in 2025. This total is up 65% from last year and marks the highest amount since 2020. October alone had the largest monthly cut in the fourth quarter since 2008. Several factors drive this trend:

• AI use leads to many roles going away.
• We see slower spending by buyers and firms, which cuts revenue.
• Rising costs drive companies to reduce spending and stop hiring.

Such trends slow the pace for laid-off workers to find new jobs and make the market more soft.

Contrasting Data and Economic Context

Challenger’s report shows large cuts, yet other data give a mixed view. For example:

• The government recently paused data work because of issues in Washington, D.C.
• Weekly state jobless claims have not spiked.
• Payroll processor ADP shows a net gain of 42,000 private jobs in October.

Federal Reserve officials express concerns about a softer job market. They have already cut their main interest rate twice since last month and might lower it once more in December to help steady the economy.

Summary

October figures bring clear signs of change in the U.S. job market as AI use grows. Some industries shrink after the high hiring seen during the pandemic. New tech and rising costs drive many layoffs. It is important to watch these trends closely, as they will guide future economic policy and recovery in the months ahead.

Reported by Jeff Cox
For CNBC, November 6, 2025

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Bank of England’s November Rate Decision: A Critical Moment Ahead of the Autumn Budget

Bank of England’s November 2025 Rate Decision: A Close Call Ahead of Autumn Budget

LONDON — The Bank of England (BOE) is set to decide on interest rates this Thursday. This is the last policy meeting before the Autumn Budget on November 26, 2025. Most market economists see the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee keep the rate at 4%. Uncertainty remains as the UK shows mixed economic signals and new tax plans.

An Uncertain Decision

Dean Turner, Chief Euro Zone and U.K. Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, calls the meeting “one of the hardest to call for some time.” He says that a rate cut is expected when economic signals shift, but the timing is hard to guess.

"It is clear that when policy is tight, inflation falls, and growth slows, rates will drop. The challenge is to know when."

Most experts expect the committee to keep rates unchanged this week. Yet, banks like Barclays, Nomura, Mizuho, and Unicredit point to a possible drop to 3.75%. Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist at Barclays Private Bank, described the decision as “very finely balanced.”

Outlook for Rate Changes

If the BOE holds rates on Thursday, experts think cuts may follow, possibly as soon as December 2025, with more moves in the next year. They see signs in factors such as:

  • Inflation, which stayed at 3.8% in September for three months.
  • Weak labor data, with unemployment possibly rising to 4.9%.
  • Slowing wage growth that meets the BOE’s targets.

Oxford Economics says most committee members wait until data shows a clear trend before changing rates. Allan Monks, Chief U.K. Economist at JP Morgan, explained:

“Further drops in inflation and labor numbers will guide the next move.”

Turner adds that signals after the meeting might point to cuts by February 2026 or even as early as December. At that time, the Autumn Budget and its report on economic impact should be available.

Impact of the Upcoming Autumn Budget

This decision happens just before the Autumn Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves may raise taxes to close a gap that is estimated at between £20-50 billion ($20-$65.2 billion). These tax changes, including increases in income tax, might cool consumer spending and ease inflation.

Economist Andrew Wishart of Berenberg commented:

"If income tax rises, it will add pressure on household incomes already hurt by high inflation and slow pay growth. In turn, demand may drop and inflation ease."

Early tightening of fiscal policy could lead the BOE to cut rates by 25 basis points twice next year, which might bring the rate down to 3.50%. A further drop to 3.25% in 2026 is also possible.

Summary

  • BOE November 2025 meeting: Likely to hold rates at 4%, though a cut to 3.75% is possible.
  • Future rate cuts expected: May start in December 2025 or February 2026, as weak growth and falling inflation guide policy.
  • Autumn Budget impact: Expected tax hikes may lower consumer spending and ease inflation, setting the stage for rate cuts.
  • Market sentiment: Bank officials prefer cautious moves and clear signs in the data before lowering rates.

The BOE’s decision and stance ahead of the fiscal plans will be closely watched by investors, businesses, and policy experts as the UK finds its way through a delicate recovery amid inflation and tighter finances.

Stay tuned for updates on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and its impact on the UK economy.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

The Advertising Paradox: Fueling AI’s Boom While Posing Existential Risks to the Economy

Op-ed: Advertising – The Driving Force Behind the AI Boom and an Existential Risk

Published Nov 5, 2025 – by Joe Marchese, Executive Chairman, Human Ventures

The rise in artificial intelligence changes markets and money systems. Spending and tech moves bind closely. OpenAI launched an AI browser, and that act quickens the AI race. Look closer and see advertising as the spark that drives both fast growth and rising risks.

The AI Boom and its Economic Impact

Money flows into AI now match the levels of war spending. Billions back new systems and chip work. One Harvard economist links 92% of U.S. growth in early 2025 to AI spending. This tie binds spending and economic lift.

Advertising: The Internet’s Business Engine

Advertising built the roads we travel online. Google first used ads in search and showed how word pairs connect people to products. Meta created an ad system that counts clicks and user focus. Amazon spices its sales with ads, so retailers like Walmart, Kroger, Uber, and DoorDash start their own channels.

AI helps sort search terms, craft suggestions, and predict what buyers will do. That link makes commerce grow beyond basic ads. Giants such as Google, Meta, and Amazon earn much from ads, then use that money to build more AI systems.

The Existential Risk to Advertising Models

The same AI that supports these firms may shake the ad model. AI can change how people seek info, shop, or browse content. Imagine if answers come fast without any clicks; if shopping online shifts in style; if content flows straight to you. Such shifts cut short the old ad chains holding up their profits.

Why Are Big Tech Giants Betting on AI?

Big firms chase more than growth. They search for machines that handle many tasks better than humans. They also work to keep their ad methods secure. Sam Altman at OpenAI called some new AI systems “first at-scale misaligned AIs” when they change ad feeds, a sign their models face new tests.

Companies such as OpenAI and Microsoft, which do not count most on ads, stir AI progress and mix the market further.

What Lies Ahead?

This moment in AI is not like past tech booms. The top firms now have strong profits and steady ad links. But if AI shifts or cracks the ad method, market shocks may come hard and fast. Google, Meta, and Amazon seem best set to adjust and shape fresh ideas. They have tied AI into their ads for many years. Still, a new way to link search, shopping, and online use may need fresh cash flows that step away from ads.

The Hidden Truth Behind AI Investment Spending

Every dollar spent on new AI tools may work not just to find new income but to hold tight the large sums earned from ads. That bond is key to seeing why AI shapes today’s markets and brings big risks ahead.

For more insights on AI, market trends, and investing, subscribe to CNBC PRO and stay informed with expert analysis.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

October Job Growth Surprises with 42,000 New Private Payrolls, Easing Labor Market Concerns

Private Payrolls Show Unexpected Growth in October, ADP Reports

ADP’s report shows that private payrolls added 42,000 jobs in October. The report states that the count nearly doubled the 22,000 jobs many experts had predicted. Last month had fewer private jobs, but this month the numbers grew.

Key Highlights from the ADP Report

• Private companies raised payrolls by 42,000 jobs in October.
• This number beats the expected 22,000 jobs.
• ADP revised September’s numbers; the loss was adjusted from 29,000 jobs to 32,000 jobs.
• Big companies, with 250 or more employees, brought 76,000 jobs in October.
• Small companies, with fewer than 250 employees, lost 34,000 jobs.

Sector Performance and Job Distribution

Job changes varied by sector in October.

• The trade, transportation, and utilities area added 47,000 jobs.
• Education and health services put in 26,000 new roles.
• Financial activities climbed by 11,000 jobs.
• Information services lost 17,000 roles.
• Other sectors lost jobs: professional and business services dropped 15,000, other services fell 13,000, and manufacturing slipped by 3,000 jobs.

Concerns Over Small Business Employment

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson spoke about the loss at the small-company level. She pointed out that small businesses help create three out of four U.S. jobs. In October, only large companies added jobs. Richardson said, "Big companies make headlines, but small companies drive hiring. That weakness shows why the recovery remains slow."

Wage Growth Continues Despite Slow Job Gains

Wages grew alongside the small rise in jobs.

• Workers who kept their jobs saw their pay climb by 4.5% year-over-year.
• Those who switched jobs enjoyed a 6.7% pay rise, slightly better than last month.

Richardson noted that the average growth for private jobs now stands at about 60,000 per month in the later part of 2025. ### Impact of Government Shutdown on Labor Market Data

The ADP report usually comes before the government’s own nonfarm payroll numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This time, a government shutdown stopped the BLS from gathering data. Experts had expected a drop of 60,000 jobs and a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. This gap now makes other data points more important.

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook

Officials at the Federal Reserve have shown more worry over the health of the job market. They now focus on it along with inflation. Last week, the Fed lowered its key interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75%-4% in a bid to keep the economy steady.

More Data to Watch

Since the government will not release its numbers for October, analysts now check other signals:

• Challenger, Gray & Christmas will share their count of announced layoffs on Thursday.
• State-level jobless claims will show recent changes in payrolls.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, coming Friday, will show how people feel about the economy.
• Data from Indeed shows job postings are at their lowest since February 2021, hinting that employers are cautious when hiring.

Even as October’s numbers show gains, the mix of strong and weak areas means the job market still faces challenges. Experts and government officials plan to watch these many signals as they study where the economy might go next.

For more in-depth economic news and updates, stay tuned to CNBC and subscribe to expert market analyses.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

October Job Openings Plummet to 4-Year Low Amid Government Shutdown: What It Means for the Economy

Job Openings in October Fall to Lowest Level Since Early 2021, Indeed Data Reveals

Published November 4, 2025 – Updated An Hour Ago

Job openings in the United States dropped in October. They reached their lowest count since February 2021. This fall came as the country struggled with a government shutdown and a slowing economy. Data from the job search site Indeed shows the decline. The report fixes words close to each other, so readers follow the links fast.

Key Insights from Indeed’s Job Postings Index

The Job Postings Index from Indeed counts new job ads. It uses a baseline of 100 set in February 2020. As of October 24, the index showed a score of 101.9. The score tells us that:

  • The index went down by 0.5% from the start of October.
  • There is a roughly 3.5% drop since mid-August, based on the last data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This fall in job ads shows that companies are hiring less while the shutdown grows.

Government Shutdown’s Impact on Labor Market Data

Usually, the BLS gives its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Tuesdays. This report helps Federal Reserve officials and other planners view the job market. Now, since the shutdown stops the report, experts depend on other tools such as Indeed’s real-time data.

The latest JOLTS report from August 2025 stated:

  • Job openings reached 7.23 million; the count was the same as in July but was down 7% compared to January.

The drop in ads shows the same trend in both sets of numbers.

Salaries Also Reflect Labor Market Cooling

Data from Indeed shows slower wage growth in new ads:

  • Year-over-year wage rises slipped to 2.5% by August, down from 3.4% earlier in the year.

This shows that employers are holding back on raising pay. The slower wage rise hints at caution amid the current economic mood.

Federal Reserve Responds to Labor Market Developments

The weakening job market has led the Federal Reserve to act. At the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), members voted 10-2 to cut the main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This move set the new rate range at 3.75%-4%. The change shows how policy makers worry about the job market even if inflation remains above the 2% aim.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said:

“Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. We’re looking at a range of numbers in real time. We are not waiting on the unemployment report. There is cause for worry because the unemployment rate edged up over the summer.”

Upcoming Labor Market Reports Delayed

The usual nonfarm payrolls report, which many watch closely, will not come out this week because of the shutdown. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected this report to show:

  • A loss of about 60,000 jobs in October.
  • An increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Without the official report, experts use other numbers like those from Indeed to judge the job scene.

Summary of Recent Labor Market Trends

  • Indeed Job Postings Index: Fell to 101.9 in late October, the lowest since February 2021.
  • Job Openings: Down roughly 7% from January, with 7.23 million openings reported in August (BLS data).
  • Salary Growth: New job ads show that wage increases slowed to 2.5% year-over-year by August.
  • Federal Reserve Action: The Fed cut interest rates as job market risks grew.
  • Data Gaps: Official jobs reports for October are delayed due to the government shutdown.

The government shutdown keeps the future uncertain. All who follow the economy, from planners to job seekers, watch these trends as more data comes in.

For ongoing updates on job trends and financial news, follow trusted sources and real-time job data sites like Indeed.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Bessent on Tariffs: Unpacking U.S. Strategies Ahead of Supreme Court Decision

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Highlights Multiple Tariff Options Amid Supreme Court Case

November 4, 2025 — The Supreme Court will soon hear a key case that questions the law behind President Trump’s tariff steps. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration keeps many plans close at hand if the court rules against the current tariff method.

Supreme Court Case to Define Presidential Trade Authority

The case asks if President Trump went beyond his power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act when he set high tariffs on U.S. trading partners. The ruling will change how much control a president holds over trade moves.

During a CNBC Squawk Box interview on Tuesday, Secretary Bessent said:
"There are many other authorities we can use. IEEPA is the simplest option. It gives the U.S. and the president strong power to negotiate. The other paths are more tangled but may work well."

Alternative Legal Authorities for Tariff Actions

If the court cuts back on the use of IEEPA, Bessent mentioned two laws that could help:

  • Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: This rule lets officials put tariffs into play for national security concerns.
  • Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: This rule aims at stopping unfair trading actions.

These laws do not give the broad "emergency" power that IEEPA does. They might be more complex to use but still work to guard U.S. trade goals.

Significance of the Court’s Decision

Bessent stressed the meeting on Wednesday matters a lot. He said the case touches on a key policy by the Trump administration. He noted that the Supreme Court usually avoids changing major executive actions and hinted at a positive result.

Status of U.S.-China Relations

The Treasury Secretary also spoke well of the current U.S.-China ties. After a recent summit in South Korea, Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on steps that pulled back some of the harsh tariffs from ongoing trade battles.

Bessent said:
"It was a very good meeting. Both sides talked with clear respect. I think President Trump is the one leader whom President Xi respects. The ties are in a good state."

He confirmed plans for two state visits in 2026—one in Beijing and one in the United States—showing that talks will continue.

As the Supreme Court weighs this key matter, all eyes are on how its choice will shape U.S. trade rules and the scope of presidential power. Treasury officials stress that, no matter the outcome, the administration keeps solid plans ready to guard American economic interests.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Navigating the New Normal: White-Collar Layoffs, AI Advances, and Economic Realities

White-Collar Layoffs: When AI Meets Old-School Cost Cutting and Tariffs

In recent weeks, big firms like Amazon, UPS, and Target have cut over 60,000 white-collar jobs. Each name links to a cost cut and a shift in market forces. This news sparks talk about the labor market, AI’s role, and other economic pulls.

The Layoff Wave and Its Causes

Experts point out that cost cuts, tariff burdens, and market fears drive these layoffs. They note that AI is only one part of the story. The links between ideas run close to show cause and effect:

  • Amazon grew fast during the pandemic, and its staff numbers rose quickly. Now the firm cuts about 14,000 jobs from its corporate team. The company sees these cuts as a way to trim excess that had built up, not a sign of AI taking over.
  • UPS shifts its work away from lower-return projects with Amazon. It now moves toward health care and return services. This change brings the need to quiet some facilities and reduce fleets, which results in job cuts.
  • Target and similar firms trim their teams to run leaner operations. They adjust how they work as consumer habits change in a stiff economy.

The Role of AI: Tool, Not Scapegoat

Experts like Peter Cappelli, a management professor from the Wharton School, say AI is not the lone cause of these wide job losses. They note that introducing AI is hard and slow.

"Using AI to save jobs is a hard and slow task. Many think it is simple and cheap, but it is not," Cappelli said.

Firms invest in AI to build long-term efficiency and cut costs. Still, many of the cuts come from worries about slow spending, high inflation, and tariff demands that push rates to near-record highs.

Economic Backdrop: Rising Costs and Uncertainty

The global market wrestles with many pressures that fuel these layoffs:

  • Inflation cuts the force of buying power.
  • Rising late payments signal that many households feel the strain.
  • Lower consumer hope hints at guarded spending.
  • High tariff rates jack up costs for firms that use global supply lines.

A government shutdown has delayed key labor numbers. This delay feeds the talk about the health of the job market and ideas of a slowing white-collar scene that AI may help push.

Company-Specific Factors

Firms cut jobs for many reasons. Here are some clear links between actions and causes:

  • Starbucks let go of about 2,000 corporate workers as sales slowed and it moved into a recovery plan.
  • Meta’s AI unit reduced its group by about 600 positions. It aimed to work more fast and cut extra layers.
  • Intel dropped roughly 15% of its jobs after a heavy investment in chip plants did not meet the needed demand.

John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, sees this change as a sharp shift. He says the old rule of “no hire, no fire” has come to an end. Retail, shipping, and distribution show some early signs.

Amazon’s Transformation Amid AI Investment

Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy describes this shift as a move toward a startup spirit by cutting red tape and extra layers. The company now focuses its ties on areas like AI and cloud work.

  • Amazon plans to spend about $125 billion in 2025. This sum is up from past plans as the firm puts money into AI tools and services.
  • Jassy sees that the staff will shrink as AI works make jobs leaner. He makes clear that new hires for key roles still happen.

UPS’s Strategic Pivot and Layoff Deepening

UPS made changes this year as it switched from its largest partner, Amazon, to more profitable areas. This change will bring close links between plans and results:

  • Amazon-related shipments will fall by over half by mid-2026.
  • About 10% of UPS facilities will close.
  • The company will cut its vehicle and airplane fleets.
  • More jobs will be cut to match the new shipment levels.

CEO Carol Tomé says UPS now steers its own path. She links these moves clearly to a plan to boost profits.

Conclusion

The recent white-collar layoffs mix old cost-cutting steps with new tech and market challenges. AI shifts work and helps cut costs, but the main cuts come from fears of a slow economy, high prices, tariff stress, and the need to adjust fast.

Recognizing these clear links helps both workers and investors see behind the news. It shows a tougher and shifting arena where firms adjust in many small, connected ways.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Russia’s Bold Move: Reaffirming Ties with China Following Trump’s Success at Xi’s Table

Russia Reasserts Strategic Ties with China Following Trump-Xi Meeting

Hangzhou, China – November 3, 2025 — Russia sent a high-level group to Hangzhou soon after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. Moscow moves to renew and grow its bond with Beijing amid global shifts. Every word here links closely to the next to aid clear thought.

A Timely Delegation to China

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin led the group. They arrived in Hangzhou on Monday and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang over two days. During the talks, both sides signed many deals on trade, investment, energy, transport, agriculture, and space work, as reported by Russian state media.

Mishustin brought top officials from finance, agriculture, transport, economic development, and trade. The team also included the head of the space agency and the head of the nuclear firm. Their presence shows a strong drive to build ties in space and nuclear energy.

Strengthening an “Unprecedented” Partnership

Mishustin called Xi Jinping his dear friend. He said Russia and China share strong ties in a long, joint history. He spoke of a bond that grows even amid harsh Western actions. Li Qiang agreed, saying both sides stand by each other and set clear plans for talks. He noted that the two nations act as reliable neighbors who trust one another. TASS, a Russian news source, shared these words.

Context: The Geopolitical Backdrop

China is Russia’s main international friend. Beijing did not speak against Moscow during its war in Ukraine, which began in 2022. Their bond grew even before the conflict. In earlier steps, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi formed a deal with no limits. This deal made them closer on both global and economic fronts while easing Western pressures.

The U.S. Factor: Trump’s Meeting with Xi Jinping

The Russian group reached China just days after President Trump met with Xi in Busan, South Korea, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Trump called the meeting very good. He shared news of a one-year trade deal with China. The deal cut tariffs on Chinese rare earth metals and halved duties on fentanyl. These moves helped calm rising trade tensions. Moscow did not comment on the Trump-Xi meeting. Yet, its quick trip shows that Russia watches Beijing as it works with the U.S. This matters as ties with the U.S. fall.

Russia Targets Expanded Cooperation Amid Western Pressures

Mishustin and his team showed strong interest in the talks. The deals signed cover many areas where Russia seeks new paths in its economy and technology work. Russia aims to use its stronger bond with China to ease the strain of global barriers. Each agreement binds close words and ideas for easier thought.

Challenges and Outlook

Both leaders mentioned risks from outside forces, hinting at ongoing global pressures and political stress. They still sent a clear message of support for one another. Each step ahead will call on their shared strength. This bond lets both nations stand firm as global events change.

Summary of Key Points:

  • Russian Prime Minister Mishustin leads a high-level group to Hangzhou for two days of talks with China.
  • Many deals were signed to boost work in trade, energy, transport, agriculture, and space.
  • Leaders show that despite global pressures, Russia and China share a strong bond.
  • The visit came soon after Trump’s notable meeting with Xi and a major U.S.-China trade deal.
  • Moscow aims to counter global challenges with a tighter bond to Beijing.

This exchange shows how global ties shift as nations face new challenges. The ever-strong Russia-China bond is set to shape events in the coming years.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Holiday Shopping Prices Poised to Rise: The Impact of Tariffs on Consumer Costs

Tariffs Likely to Influence Consumer Prices as Holiday Shopping Season Begins

During the holiday season, shoppers see tariffs in the prices they pay. Tariffs that stayed low during 2025 now weigh on costs. Experts note a stronger price change as retail work grows.

Background on Tariffs and Inflation

Tariffs began in April 2025 under the Trump administration. Countries send many goods that carry these tariffs. Inflation mostly stayed between 2.5% and 3% for the year. At first, tariffs did not move prices much.

Firms built up their inventory before tariffs struck. They took on more costs by keeping slimmer profits. Soon, as these stocks drop, companies pass more costs to buyers.

Tariffs’ Role in Inflation Measures

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave shows tariffs push consumer prices higher. Tariffs add about 0.5 percentage points to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. In September 2025, the core PCE reached 2.9% with tariffs, and about 2.4% without them.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees rising inflation as the bank makes plans around its 2% goal, set aside from food and energy.

Impact on Consumers and Retail Prices

Tariffs add real costs for buyers. Consumers shoulder 50% to 70% of these extra charges. Clothing prices jumped 0.7% in September 2025. Other items such as coffee, furniture, and fake Christmas trees cost more as well. Price moves on basic items like eggs or holiday décor change how buyers view inflation.

Holiday Season and Consumer Spending

Tariffs may hit the holiday season hard. LendingTree data shows that if tariffs had applied in the 2024 season, total spending would have increased by $40.6 billion. On average, each shopper would pay about $132 more. Around 70.5% of tariff costs hit buyers directly.

This extra charge may push many shoppers to use credit cards or get personal loans. More households face higher debt during a busy time of year.

Federal Reserve Outlook and Policy Implications

The Fed keeps a close watch on inflation. Some regional officials do not agree with recent moves to lower interest rates because inflation stays above the target. Tariffs add to this ongoing inflation, which makes the Fed’s task of balancing growth and stable prices more complex.

In summary, tariffs have played a small role in price changes so far. As holiday shoppers start buying, the impact grows. Rising prices on everyday items add up, shaping how consumers spend and view the economy as 2026 begins.

For both shoppers and businesses, watching how tariffs affect costs is important as the holiday season nears.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

ECB Holds Steady: Interest Rates Unchanged as Euro Zone Economy Shows Resilience Amid Uncertainty

European Central Bank Holds Rates Steady Amid Signs of Economic Resilience

October 30, 2025 – The European Central Bank has decided to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting. It holds the deposit facility rate at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Recent data show that the euro zone economy stands firm while facing global doubts.

ECB’s Rate Decision and Economic Context

The ECB kept the rate steady after a series of cuts earlier this year. Last June, the rate fell from a 2024 peak of 4%. That June cut came as inflation settled near the 2% medium-term goal. In its statement, the bank said, "Inflation stays near 2% and the outlook stays the same." The statement shows that the ECB sees current inflation as manageable and does not need to change rates now.

Growth and Inflation Indicators

Preliminary figures for the third quarter show 0.2% growth in the euro zone economy. This small gain beats some expectations. The slow rise in activity shows that the economy stays strong even with trade issues and other pressures.

In September, euro zone inflation edged up to 2.2% from 2.0% in August. Higher service prices, such as in tourism and digital areas, drove this rise. Meanwhile, high tariffs, uncertainty, and a strong euro keep manufacturing slow.

ECB Officials Highlight a Nuanced Outlook

ECB President Lagarde explained that internal and external demand follow different paths. She noted that rising incomes help consumer spending. At the same time, trade challenges and tariffs continue to weigh on manufacturing.

Martin Kocher, a member of the Governing Council, said Europe stays in a good place if no major changes occur. He added that the time for cutting rates is nearly over.

François Villeroy de Galhau, another Council member, called for careful steps in rate management. He pointed out that current conditions are good, yet things remain flexible.

Market Response and Expert Commentary

After the ECB announcement, the euro lost some early gains. It traded a bit lower against the U.S. dollar at $1.1571. Analysts were not surprised because inflation appears stable.

Mike Coop, Chief Investment Officer at Morningstar Wealth, described the move as dull but fitting. He felt the step fits with inflation returning to a well-controlled level. He also noted that Europe faces challenges such as shifting away from cheap energy, tougher trade with the U.S., higher defense costs, and fewer investments compared with the U.S.

Data-Dependent Approach Moving Forward

The ECB will decide on future steps by looking at new data at each meeting. Many experts expect that rates will stay on hold through 2025. Most see no change until the end of 2026. For now, the bank will hold steady until new facts call for action.

Key Takeaways:

  • ECB holds the key deposit rate at 2% for the third meeting in a row.
  • Euro zone growth reached 0.2% in Q3.
  • Inflation in the euro zone edged up to 2.2% in September, led by higher service costs.
  • The ECB shows economic strength amid global uncertainty.
  • ECB officials hint that the period of cutting rates is nearly over.
  • The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the news.
  • The ECB will decide on future steps by examining new data.

As the euro area faces challenges in energy change and trade shifts, the ECB’s steady stance supports growth while keeping inflation near target levels.

Reporting by CNBC, with contributions from Tasmin Lockwood and Leonie Kidd. For more updates on global financial markets and the latest from central banks, stay tuned.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower