Tag Archive for: Economic

Trump Eyes Lower Fentanyl Tariffs Ahead of Key Meeting with Xi Jinping

Trump Indicates a Cut in Tariffs on Fentanyl Imports from China Before Meeting with Xi Jinping

October 28, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl imports from China. He set this idea before he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. This move shows a strong step in U.S.-China trade and security talks.

Talks on Fentanyl and Farm Issues

On Air Force One, Trump spoke to reporters. He stressed that fentanyl entering the U.S. and matters of American farmers would be the main topics in his Thursday meeting with Xi. Many in the U.S. worry over the rise of fentanyl and its parts coming from China.

Trump said:

"We are going to discuss fentanyl flows into the U.S. and our farmers. These will be important parts of the conversation."

Here, he shows a strategy to fight drug health problems and to back the farming community. This step may help fix ties between the two nations.

Tariff Cut as Part of a Trade Deal

A report in the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. might cut the present 20% tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese exports by 50%. In return, China would act to stop chemicals used in making fentanyl from leaving the country.

When asked about a one-year break in China’s controls on rare earth exports to gain more U.S. trade moves, Trump said:

"We haven’t talked about the timing yet but we are gonna work out something."

This answer shows that talks are still in progress about trade limits and supply issues that matter to both sides.

Improving U.S.-China Ties

Trump said his relations with China are “very good” and he looked forward to his meeting with Xi Jinping:

"We are going to have a great meeting with China’s Xi."

The meeting is set during a regional summit in South Korea. It may change the ties between the U.S. and China during a time of global change in business and politics.

Key Points Recap:

  • President Trump expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese imports.
  • Talks with Xi Jinping will focus on fentanyl flows and support for U.S. farmers.
  • The potential tariff cuts depend on China stopping chemical exports used for fentanyl.
  • Rare earth export controls continue to be a subject of talks.
  • Trump has a positive view of U.S.-China ties before the meeting.

This story is still growing. Stay tuned for more news about the U.S.-China talks and the effect on trade and global work.

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Job Growth Surge: Private Sector Adds 15,000 Jobs Weekly as ADP Data Shows Economic Resilience

Private Sector Jobs Grow as New Roles Reach Almost 15,000 Each Week, ADP Quick Data Shows

October 28, 2025 – ADP, a well-known payroll company, shares data that shows the private sector added around 14,250 jobs each week for the past month. This rise comes after job losses in September and gives a brighter view of current work trends.

Key Points from ADP’s Quick Report

• In the last four weeks, companies made almost 15,000 new jobs each week.
• ADP now tracks a four-week average of week-to-week job changes. The report uses data that ends on October 11.
• This new report helps show work trends in near real time. It comes at a time when a government shutdown made official data hard to get.

The New ADP Job Count

ADP now shows week-to-week job changes averaged over four weeks. This tool helps investors, analysts, and policy experts see simple hints of job trends. The old National Employment Report (NER) does the work in these ways:

  • It counts job numbers once a month during the week that includes the 12th.
  • It gives details for each work sector.
  • It is shared once a month, just before the government release for payroll numbers.

The new ADP count gives a steady, rolling look at the market. It works as an early sign of job changes while the NER gives a fuller picture when it is released.

What the Data Means

The report shows that the weekly gain of 14,250 jobs adds up to about 55,000 jobs in a month. This strong gain stands in contrast to the NER report that showed a net loss of about 32,000 jobs in September.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said,
"ADP’s quick job data, shared each week, gives us a clear view of the work market now. It shows both new job creation and job loss with much detail."

Note that these early numbers can change when the full NER data for October comes out.

Looking Ahead

ADP now shares its weekly reports at this busy time for the U.S. economy. At a moment when many need the latest work data amid changes in policy and economy, the information may help the market and guide financial choices until government data goes back to its normal schedule.

For readers who follow work market updates, ADP will keep posting these four-week average reports every Tuesday. This steady view helps track changes in private sector employment.

Stay tuned as more data and month-end updates come in.

Source: ADP quick job data as reported by CNBC

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Resilient Yet Rattled: WTO Insights on Global Trade’s Tough Battle Against Tariffs

WTO Chief Affirms Resilience of Global Trade Amidst U.S. Tariff Turmoil

October 28, 2025 — U.S. tariffs hit many imported goods, and the trade system holds strong. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO head, told CNBC in Saudi Arabia that the trade system is "battered and bruised but still standing." Here, each word works close to its partner so the meaning stays clear.

Unprecedented Disruptions but a System Holding Strong

The United States, led by President Donald Trump, acts alone. His move causes what Okonjo-Iweala calls the "greatest disruption of global trade in 80 years." Since early 2025, the U.S. set tariffs on many goods from many lands. These actions raise tension and doubt in global markets, yet the system does not collapse.
"Many think trade is broken because of these U.S. tariffs," she notes. "That view is not right."

The Focus on Trump-Xi Meeting

U.S. President Donald Trump tours Asia. He signs trade deals and pacts as he goes. On Thursday, he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump hopes to reach a deal to lower duties and counter-tariffs.
Okonjo-Iweala hopes the meeting goes well. She notes that easing trade fights helps all nations.

  • Stopping trade splits and fights between the U.S. and China is needed.
  • A split into two trade groups would hurt world prosperity.
  • Countries with fewer resources would suffer the most.

WTO’s Mixed Forecast for Global Trade

The WTO now sees global trade growing by 2.4% in 2025 instead of 0.9% as it thought in August. In contrast, the view for 2026 is weak at 0.5%, down from 1.8% before.
The WTO points to two ideas for this drop:

  • A cooling world economy
  • The effect of high tariffs slowing trade

Factors Fueling Trade Growth in Early 2025

Trade grew by 4.9% in the first half of 2025. U.S. buyers made extra purchases before more tariffs came in. Good economic signals—such as low inflation, sound government budgets, and strong job markets—helped raise incomes and spending. Fast growth in new markets also helped trade move up.

AI Grows in Global Trade

A new force in trade is the rise of artificial intelligence. AI goods include chips, servers, and telecom gear. AI trade made up nearly half of the growth in the first half of the year and climbed 20% from 2024.
Global contest for AI runs as follows:

  • The United States contributed about one-fifth of the AI trade growth.
  • Asia drove nearly two-thirds of the increase in AI trade.

Conclusion

Global trade faces many hurdles from disputes and tariffs. Still, the WTO chief holds a cautious hope. The system has survived heavy shocks. It may grow stronger if the U.S. and China calm their tensions and work together on trade. Steps to ease trade fights help not only the nations in question but also many others, especially those with smaller economies.

For further updates on global trade developments and market insights, stay tuned to CNBC.

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Five Essential Insights from the Latest Consumer Price Index Report: Navigating Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Implications

Five Key Takeaways from Friday’s Consumer Price Index Report

On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its long-waited Consumer Price Index report. A government shutdown delayed the report by a week and a half. The CPI is a key economic indicator. It tracks changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services. The report also sets the benchmark for adjusting Social Security cost of living allowances.

Here are the five most important insights from the latest CPI data:

1. Inflation Remains Above Target but Shows Signs of Moderation

  • The headline inflation rate went up by 0.3% this month and 3.0% this year. The numbers are a bit lower than many forecasts.
  • Core inflation, which leaves out the unstable food and energy sectors, increased 0.2% monthly and 3.0% yearly.
  • Inflation still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data hints that the pressure on prices is not growing fast and may be easing in key areas.

2. Markets Anticipate Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

  • Market signals suggest that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week.
  • A second cut in December also appears likely. The FedWatch tool shows only a 4% chance that the Fed will not lower rates twice before year-end.
  • This view shows more trust that slower inflation can allow the Fed to reduce rates.

3. Tariffs and Immigration Effects Are Modest but Noticeable

  • Some products affected by tariffs and immigration show mixed price movements:
    • Price for clothing increased by 0.7%, and sporting goods prices rose by 1.0%.
    • Smartphone prices dropped by 2.2%, marking a 14.9% decline compared to a year ago.
    • Gardening and lawn care services saw a yearly price jump of 13.9%.
  • The impact from tariffs appears as a short rise in prices rather than an ongoing inflation trend.

4. Shelter Costs Show Some Relief

  • Shelter costs, which cover about one-third of consumer spending, went up by 0.2% this month and 3.6% over the year.
  • The measure for owners’ equivalent rent rose by just 0.1%, the smallest rise since November 2020.
  • This small increase in shelter costs may ease the overall pressure on inflation.

5. Government Shutdown Impact on Reporting

  • The shutdown halted all other federal economic data efforts. The CPI report was completed mainly because it affects Social Security adjustments.
  • As a result, this may be the last official inflation report until the shutdown ends and normal reporting picks up again.

Expert Perspectives on the Report

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Head of Fixed Income and a possible future Fed Chair, said:
"In aggregate, today’s inflation readings look good, even if they are still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. We think the overall trend in inflation can slow down over the next year, which could allow the Fed to tilt towards cutting rates."

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSK, noted:
"Large rises in food, meat, housing, and utility costs hit middle-class and lower-income households hard. They face slow wage growth and have a hard time adjusting to these higher living costs."

Krishna Guha, Head of Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISM, remarked:
"The price effects from tariffs seem small and point to a one-time price rise rather than a lasting inflation issue."

Conclusion

The CPI report shows a guardedly positive view on inflation. Prices for goods and services are rising slowly while some important costs grow less quickly. Financial markets now expect Fed rate cuts, signaling hopes that inflation will ease further. Yet many lower-income households still feel the strain of rising food and housing costs.

As the government shutdown puts a hold on other economic data, investors and officials will watch closely for clear signs on the future of inflation and policy steps.

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Analysis and quotes from CNBC and financial experts.

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September CPI Report Reveals Surprising Drop in Inflation to 3%: What It Means for the Fed and Your Wallet

September 2025 CPI Inflation Rate Hits 3%, Lower Than Expected

On October 24, 2025, the BLS shared a report. The report shows the CPI rate for September at 3.0%. It is a bit higher than in August but still below what some had thought. This report gives clear insight into U.S. inflation during a government shutdown when most other data stops.

Key Inflation Figures

• Monthly Increase: CPI went up by 0.3% in September, not 0.4% as predicted.
• Annual Inflation: The yearly rate stayed at 3.0%, a shade below the forecast of 3.1%.
• Core CPI: When we leave out food and energy, core CPI grew by 0.2% for the month and also showed a 3.0% annual rate, again a little under the expected 3.1%.

The core CPI monthly gain of 0.2% is lower than the 0.3% rises in July and August, which hints at a slow down in core inflation.

Components Driving Inflation

• Energy Prices: Gasoline costs jumped by 4.1% in September. Even as this month brought a surge, gas prices fell by 0.5% over the year.
• Food Prices: Food costs edged up 0.2% month by month, with an annual rise of 3.1%. Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs jumped 5.2% over the year. Nonalcoholic beverages, likewise, climbed 5.3%.
• Shelter Costs: This part makes up about one third of the CPI. Shelter costs grew by 0.2% in September and 3.6% over the year.
• Other Services & Goods: Service prices (other than shelter) rose by 0.2%, new vehicle prices increased by 0.8%, and used car and truck prices dropped by 0.4%.

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

Following the release, stock futures moved up while Treasury yields went lower. Experts see the lower inflation as a sign that the Fed may cut interest rates soon.

John Kerschner, head of securitized products at Janus Henderson, said the report feels "like an oasis slaking the thirst of a weary desert traveler" amid a lack of government data. He added that the report “shows the Fed will cut rates at next week’s meeting.”

The Role of Tariffs and Economic Outlook

Some worry about tariffs set by the previous administration, but they have not raised overall inflation much so far. James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, noted that U.S. companies now source from countries with lower tariffs. This shift cuts the anticipated price rise from tariffs.

He did warn that tariff-related price bumps might grow. However, he sees these as a one-time jump rather than a long-lasting trend.

Last Official Data Before the Fed Decision

This CPI report is the only new economic data during the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. The data came out because the Social Security Administration needs the CPI to set cost-of-living payments.

The Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate and sees more than that now. The new reading will shape their interest rate choices next week. Markets now expect a 0.25% cut from the 4.00%–4.25% range with more softening in December.

Conclusion

The September CPI shows that inflation is present but not as strong as some thought. This softer trend gives room to cut rates and help the economy, even as the job market weakens and issues with the budget persist.

Investors and policymakers now await new reports. For now, the 3% inflation rate provides a hopeful sign of more stable prices in the U.S. economy.

For ongoing updates on the inflation report and its impact for markets and monetary policy, stay tuned to our economic coverage.

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Anticipation Builds for Friday’s Crucial Inflation Report: What Analysts Are Predicting

Everyone is Waiting for Friday’s Big Inflation Report: Here’s What to Expect

Thursday, October 23, 2025 – Wall Street eyes Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This event marks the key data of the month. The government shutdown now limits usual data. This report now holds more sway on markets and policy talks. Many experts call it “the report to end all reports.”

Key Context: Why This CPI Report Matters More Than Usual

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the report on Friday, October 24. The report was set for October 15 but got pushed back by the shutdown. Its release comes before the Federal Reserve meets for policy talks, which wrap on Wednesday, October 29. Troy Ludtka, a senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said, “We have little fresh government data, so all eyes are on this report.” With few new numbers available, investors, analysts, and policy makers want to see clear signs of inflation trends.

What the Forecast Looks Like

Wall Street believes that September’s CPI will follow last month’s path and show steady inflation:

  • Monthly all-items CPI: May rise by 0.4%, as it did in August.
  • Year-over-year inflation rate: May hit 3.1%, up 0.2 points from August.
  • Core CPI (without food and energy): May go up by 0.3% for the month and hold at 3.1% for the year, as in August.
  • The annual core number would be the highest since January 2025. Though many expect the same trends, even small shifts could make markets jump, as the lack of data makes each number count.

Special Focus: Trade Tariffs and Price Effects

Analysts watch the effects of trade tensions linked with President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Goldman Sachs experts note:

  • Auto prices may hold steady.
  • Car insurance may see a rise.
  • Airfares could drop.
  • Prices for phones, home goods, and recreational items might face some upward pull.
  • In all, tariffs may add about 0.07 points to core inflation.

Data Reliability Concerns Amid the Shutdown

The shutdown casts doubt on the accuracy of economic data. Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, warned, “The market misses key data now, so there is added uncertainty.”

Even with these doubts, investors show strength. Stock averages near record highs persist despite daily moves.

Broader Market and Economic Implications

Geopolitical risk and changes in tariff policy cause worry about inflation and economic growth. Earlier numbers showed a strong U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Fed near a 4% GDP growth estimate for the third quarter.

The CPI numbers will shape what the Federal Reserve decides at its meeting, where many foresee a quarter-point rate cut. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said, “A big surprise on the high side would make the market rethink a rate cut.”

Market Reactions: Volatility Ahead?

Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, warned that higher numbers could boost market swings. Still, she sees a chance to buy as the economy stays strong, the Fed may cut rates, EPS grows in double digits, and the fourth quarter tends to be strong.

Conclusion

In short, Friday’s CPI report now stands as the month’s top economic event. It may shape markets, policy talks, and investor views. While numbers are expected to show steady inflation, the lack of data from the shutdown and ongoing global risks bring extra focus on every figure.

Investors and analysts watching inflation should note the report on October 24 and watch the market moves that may follow.

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Diverging Spending Patterns: Unpacking the K-Shaped Economic Recovery Across Key Sectors

‘K-Shaped’ Spending Reveals Economic Divide Across Key Sectors

The U.S. economy struggles with recession fears, a government shutdown, and tariff doubt. Consumer spending shows a split. Wealthy Americans spend more with extra funds. Lower-income buyers cut back on costs.

Understanding the ‘K-Shaped’ Economy

The term “K-shaped” shows how groups move in different ways.
• The top group gains money, grows its buying power, and sees financial wins.
• The bottom group loses income and limits spending.

This trend appears in many big sectors. The gap between rich and poor widens.

Key Economic Indicators and Upcoming Reports

The Labor Department must release its Consumer Price Index report. The report was held back because of a recent government shutdown. It marks price shifts in goods and services, a key sign of household stress. The report does not include shutdown effects but sheds light before the Social Security Administration sets cost-of-living changes on November 1. ### Sector-by-Sector Breakdown of Bifurcation

Food and Beverage

  • Coca-Cola leads in consumer trends. CEO James Quincey notes that higher-priced drinks such as Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes boost sales. Rich buyers choose these products. Yet, Coca-Cola sees steady demand at both dollar stores for bargain seekers and at fast-casual spots and parks that attract wealthier buyers.

  • McDonald’s faces fewer visits from lower- and middle-income families. CEO Chris Kempczinski calls this a “two-tier economy.” Rich buyers continue their habits, while others skip meals or eat at home to save money. Chipotle’s CFO Adam Rymer adds that money-strapped groups feel pressure, which shapes future price steps.

Automotive and Airfare

  • In cars, the average new vehicle price is now over $50,000. Rising auto loan troubles and vehicle repossessions hit most buyers with low credit scores. Cox Automotive analyst Erin Keating sees that rich households drive the high-end market.
  • In air travel, premium seat sales for airlines like Delta top those of coach cabins. CEO Ed Bastian sees steady sales of higher-priced, more spacious seats among wealthier travelers.

Hospitality

  • Hilton’s CEO Christopher Nassetta sees this spending split but expects it to change soon. He thinks that a drop in inflation and interest rates may bring lower- and middle-income buyers back. Recent Hilton news shows that revenue in budget hotels, like Hampton by Hilton, falls while luxury brands perform well. This split in sales marks the change in consumer behavior.

What This Means for the Economy

The “K-shaped” spending shows that not all buyers feel better off. Those with extra money can handle rising prices while they still spend. Others cut out non-essential buys and pick more budget-friendly choices. This split challenges businesses, forcing them to serve groups with very different needs.

Looking Forward

The Consumer Price Index report comes soon. Analysts and policy experts now watch how price shifts hit each income group. Some industry heads hope that softer inflation and easier conditions soon will smooth the spending split and bring a more even recovery.

Contributors to this report include CNBC’s Amelia Lucas, Michael Wayland, Alex Harring, Luke Fountain, and Leslie Josephs.

Stay informed with CNBC PRO and our Investing Club for in-depth market analysis and real-time updates.

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India and U.S. Poised for Historic Trade Deal: Major Tariff Cuts and Reduced Russian Oil Imports on the Horizon

India and U.S. Edge Closer to Trade Agreement with Major Tariff Reductions and Shift in Russian Oil Imports

India and the United States move toward a new trade deal. This deal links United States efforts to cut tariffs on Indian exports with India’s plan to lower its Russian oil buys. Mint reports that both sides set terms that tie tariff cuts with reduced oil imports.

Proposed Tariff Cuts and Market Access

Tariffs sit at about 50% on Indian products in the U.S. market. The deal would bring these rates down to near 15% or 16%. This drop cuts the cost barrier for Indian goods and opens a larger U.S. market. India may also raise its quota for non-genetically modified corn. The current cap of 0.5 million tonnes each year might be lifted. Both countries talk over a regular review process to track these changes.

Reduction in Russian Oil Imports

A main focus rests on India’s Russian oil imports. Today, India is the world’s second-biggest buyer. Daily imports have grown from 50,000 barrels in 2020 to about 1.6 million barrels in early 2025. This rise comes as tension grows in Ukraine. In a phone call, former President Trump said Prime Minister Modi promised to reduce Russian oil buys. Trump warned that India would face heavy tariffs until it cuts these imports. Modi confirmed the call, yet he did not clearly discuss the oil issue. Instead, he pointed to their joint work against terrorism. India’s Foreign Ministry repeats that the nation seeks affordable energy during these volatile times. They stress that any drop in Russian oil must go with a plan that holds the energy supply.

Background and Strategic Considerations

U.S. pressure now pushes India toward a new oil policy. In August, Trump added a 25% tariff penalty on Indian goods. This move pushed tariffs to a full 50%. India’s ties with Russia have long been close. Meetings between Modi, President Putin, and President Xi in Beijing have added extra weight. U.S. officials see the oil policy as key to cutting Moscow’s funds amid the Ukraine conflict.

Next Steps and Outlook

Both sides work to set the main points of the trade deal. Sensitive subjects like agriculture and energy still need more talk. The final deal may come at the ASEAN summit later this month. It remains unclear if Trump or Modi will join the meeting.

Summary of Key Points

  • U.S. tariffs on Indian exports may drop from 50% to around 15%-16%.
  • India may cut its Russian oil buys gradually while keeping energy stable.
  • India might boost its non-GMO corn imports from the U.S.
  • Discussions continue on agriculture access and energy policy.
  • The final deal could be announced at the ASEAN summit in October.

Both countries build trade links that connect immediate tariff relief with long-term energy policy changes. This path may boost trade while they work through complex issues.

This article will be updated as more information becomes available.

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Inflation Insights: Navigating Doubts as Critical CPI Data Approaches Amid Government Shutdown

This Week’s Critical Inflation Report Arrives Amid Growing Doubts Over Data Accuracy

Published: October 21, 2025 | Updated: October 21, 2025

Financial markets wait for the September Consumer Price Index report on Friday. Investors note its high importance. They see a gap between the report and its data. Some fear the collection methods now add doubt.

CPI Report Under Intense Scrutiny

The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the CPI. Many see it as a top source for U.S. economic data. Recent methods include in-person visits, phone calls, and written replies. These steps now face strong doubt. A government shutdown in Washington, D.C. has made work harder for federal teams, and the BLS feels the strain.

Vishal Khanduja, who leads broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said,
"Skeptics like me will check how pure this data is. We ask how the team worked with fewer staff. We also ask what steps they took before the report came out."

The BLS faced staff cuts even before the shutdown. It even dropped some urban areas from its sampling. With most offices closed, putting the report together is more challenging. This gap may keep the report from showing the full picture of inflation.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump removed former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. He did so after data on nonfarm payrolls went lower than expected. This move highlights the strong pressure on the agency.

What Economists Are Expecting

Many economists forecast small moves in the CPI. Dow Jones experts expect annual inflation to hold at about 3.1%. This rate applies to both the main index and the version that cuts out food and energy. They predict month-over-month gains of 0.4% for the full index and 0.3% for the trimmed version. These levels follow August’s numbers.

Most other economic reports have stalled because of the government shutdown. The Labor Department recalled BLS staff for this report, as the CPI helps set Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.

Citigroup economist Veronica Clark shared her view:
"As the shutdown may last into November, we worry about missing real-time numbers. The data in November seems at risk too. We will look for any hints on October CPI work with Friday’s report."

Market and Policy Implications

The Federal Reserve meets next week against this backdrop. Experts expect a 0.25 percentage point drop in rates from the current 4.00% to 4.25%. A similar move in December is also likely. Yet, the long-term view beyond 2025 stays unclear. President Trump now supports lower rates. He may soon pick a new chair for the Fed who shares this view.

Market experts caution that weak inflation data may make the Fed’s task more complex.

Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC,
"I think we may not learn much new from this CPI data. I see it as a sign for the Fed to cut rates in a stronger way. But the risk is that the data may not back a deeper rate cut."

Key Takeaways

• The September CPI report shows doubts due to fewer staff and work issues amid the shutdown.
• Despite worries, most forecasters see small changes that follow August’s trends.
• Most other economic reports are on hold, leaving limited fresh data for markets and policy teams.
• The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon, though future policy remains unclear.
• Political moves and changes in leadership add more strain to trusting the data.

As the markets wait for Friday’s numbers, investors, economists, and policy teams will study the data with care. They know that these unusual times may hide the true view of the U.S. economy.

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U.S. Rare Earths Surge as Government Battles China’s Market Control

Rare Earths Gain Momentum Amid U.S. Efforts to Counter China’s Dominance

Published Mon, Oct 20 2025, 9:17 AM EDT
By Tasmin Lockwood

The United States and China face a clear challenge. Both fight for control over rare earth minerals. US-listed rare earth stocks jumped on Monday. Investor interest and shifts in government policy drove this rise.

China’s Longstanding Control and U.S. Response

China has long held rare earth elements. These minerals are key for modern technology. They help make semiconductors, fighter jets, electric car motors, lasers, and more. China runs a large part of the supply chain. US officials now work to build a strong domestic system. Trade tensions have grown as China sets tighter limits. In an interview, a US Treasury leader said the government plans a fixed price to stop market abuse by Chinese tactics.

Market Rally and Government Backing

Monday saw clear gains for companies in the rare earth chain:

  • NioCorp rose 9.3% soon after the market opened.
  • Energy Fuels climbed 3.8%.
  • USA Rare Earth increased 2.9%.
  • Perpetua Resources added 3.4%.
  • MP Materials, the largest US rare earth miner, gained 1.8%.

Canadian firms also fared well. Lithium Americas went up 2.6% while Trilogy Metals increased 2.2%.

This market rise fits with steps taken by the US Defense Department. In July, the department made a deal with MP Materials. The deal gave the government a share, set a fixed price on rare earths, and signed a buying agreement. It shows strong federal support for US production.

Anticipated Government Involvement

Investors hope the US will back more mining companies. A recent report rated USA Rare Earth as a solid performer. The report hints that more firms might share in government support under a wider plan.

Michael Silver, CEO and chairman of American Elements—a distributor of rare earth minerals—said on CNBC’s Squawk Box that the US holds enough heavy metals for military needs. He warned that a slow supply chain can harm production of electric cars, lasers, and other tech items. He said that opening new mines must be seen as a national priority with likely government funds and support.

China’s Export Restrictions

China now asks foreign companies to get approval before shipping rare earths. Firms must also state how they will use the materials. These tighter rules show that China sees these minerals as a valuable asset. This move pushes the US to speed up work on a secure home supply.

The rare earth sector, once small and ignored, now sits at the center of global strategy and tech progress. With government incentives and clear deals, US rare earth companies and investors appear ready for growth as the supply chain changes.

For continuous updates on the rare earth industry and related market developments, stay tuned to CNBC.

Sources:

  • CNBC exclusive interview with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
  • Market data as of October 20, 2025
  • Statements from American Elements CEO Michael Silver
  • U.S. Department of Defense agreements with MP Materials

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