Tag Archive for: Economic

Trump’s Game-Changing Agreement with China: Fentanyl Tariffs Cut and Rare Earths Deal Secured

Trump Announces Major Trade and Security Agreement with China Following Historic Meeting

October 30, 2025 — Busan, South Korea

The two largest economies move closer as President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States signed a new one-year deal with China. The U.S. and China agreed on a pact to secure rare earth elements and key minerals. This news came right after a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea.

Key Highlights from the Announcement

  • Rare Earths Deal: Trump said the pact will keep rare earth minerals steady for tech and manufacturing. He calls it a one-year plan that may renew and change with each cycle.

  • Fentanyl Tariff Reduction: Trump said tariffs on fentanyl-linked imports from China will drop from 57% to 47%. The move works to stop the illegal spread of fentanyl, a strong synthetic drug linked to the U.S. overdose problem.

  • Agricultural Trade Resumption: China agreed to buy more American farm products such as soybeans. This step seeks to mend recent trade tensions.

  • Upcoming Visits: Trump said he will go to China in April 2026. Later, President Xi will come to the United States. The trips are set to boost further ties in trade and security.

The Meeting and Its Broader Context

The leaders met for 1 hour and 40 minutes. This was their first face-to-face talk in six years. Before they began, both leaders exchanged kind words. Trump called Xi an "old friend" with a strong bond. Xi noted that China’s growth plans would not clash with Trump’s goal to make America strong again.

These talks come as tensions rose during 2025. Beijing tightened export rules while Washington warned about stopping certain tech exports to China. They discussed topics like:

  • Tariffs and trade limits
  • Fentanyl import rules
  • Rare earth minerals and supply chains
  • Tech safety and TikTok’s ties to ByteDance

Signs of a Thawing Relationship

Even though many doubted change, Beijing bought U.S. soybeans. This act shows a sign of better ties. The new rare earth deal, the drop in fentanyl tariffs, and the restart of farm trade hint at a less rocky U.S.-China bond. Trump called the meeting “amazing” and said many plans were set, showing hope for more joint work.

Looking Ahead

The pact may shift global markets, tech fields, and security rules because rare earths matter in gadgets and defense. The lower tariffs on fentanyl-linked imports show a careful plan to fix hard shared issues in trade and public health.

With trips planned next year, Washington and Beijing show a clear wish to calm and balance their economic and security ties.

This is a developing story; updates will follow as more information becomes available.

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Trump and Xi Converge in Busan: A Crucial Meeting to Resolve Trade Tensions

Trump and Xi Arrive in Busan for Pivotal Trade Talks

Busan, South Korea — On October 30, 2025, President Trump and President Xi landed in Busan. They had not met face-to-face since Trump began his second term in January. Global markets and policy teams now wait as the two leaders meet. Their talks will focus on trade issues and tariffs. Two major economies show tension in these issues.

Arrival and Context of the Meeting

At Gimhae Air Base in Busan, officials greeted Trump and Xi with warm smiles. The leaders posed for a photo before their talks began at 11 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET Wednesday). This meeting happens as Xi visits South Korea. It is his first visit in 11 years, and he also attends the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in nearby Gyeongju from Thursday to Saturday.

Trade Tensions at a Boiling Point

This meeting comes during a tough economic year. Beijing set new export controls. The U.S. warned it might ban some software exports to China. These moves add to the trade war problems between the two nations.

In recent days, the U.S. shared three goals for the talks:

  • Cut the flow of fentanyl into the United States
  • Split TikTok from its Beijing-based parent, ByteDance
  • Redefine terms for tariffs, technology exports, and rare earth mineral trades

Reuters said that China bought its first shipments of U.S. soybeans in months. This move may show a softer stance before the talks.

Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment

Investors feel cautious yet hopeful. Markets saw a rise at the start of the week in anticipation of change. The trade war has made markets nervous for months. News from Busan may send waves across global markets.

Outlook

Beijing remains careful about the chance of an agreement. The meeting now stands as a chance to fix key trade issues. The topics on the agenda may shift global ties for years.

The world now watches. The results of Busan might shape economic and diplomatic bonds for a long time. Stay tuned for live updates on this major summit.

Reporting by Evelyn Cheng and Anniek Bao, CNBC
Photo Credit: Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

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Saudi Arabia’s Bold Economic Transformation: Embracing Technology, AI, and Tourism Beyond Oil

Saudi Arabia Shifts Economic Priorities: From NEOM to Technology and Tourism

Riyadh, October 29, 2025 – Saudi Arabia ran a nearly ten-year plan called Vision 2030 to move away from oil. Now it shows a new focus on tech, AI, and tourism. This change points to a new national aim.

Moving from Big Projects to New Ideas

When Saudi Arabia introduced Vision 2030 in the mid-2010s, it backed huge projects like NEOM. NEOM planned a car-free city, with The Line as its key part. NEOM was to cost about $1.5 trillion; The Line stood near $500 billion. Mine projects linked funds with hope and a fresh urban plan.

Faisal Alibrahim, the Economy Minister, said on CNBC at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, “We are reordering our focus to help the parts that need it the most; today, it is tech and AI.” He added that new growth will come from work, tech, new ideas, and AI.

Alibrahim pointed out that if plans do not work as well, one must change them. Change starts when the results slow.

Tourism Grows Faster

Tech now wins more space, but tourism grows faster. The kingdom sees strong gains in travel and culture. It reached targets early. Now, the plan is to host 150 million visitors by the end of the decade. This fact shows that other parts of the economy speed up.

Travel, festivals, and sports add to the non-oil economy. Today, they make up 56% of the GDP, Alibrahim said. He called non-oil growth “the main force of the economy” and a way to cut the risks found in oil.

Balancing New Steps

The money view stays good. Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry sees the 2026 budget gap at 3.3% of GDP and expects 4.6% economic growth next year, helped by work outside oil. Minister Alibrahim now expects a 5.1% growth rate for 2025. Finance Minister Mohammed Aljadaan said the kingdom’s debt is low. He noted that a 32% public debt-to-GDP ratio stays safe and is backed by strong reserves.

Even when oil prices change and budgets feel pressure, Riyadh keeps spending to meet social and economic goals that match Vision 2030.

NEOM in a New Role

Saudi Arabia still puts funds into NEOM. It now cuts costs and moves with a quicker pace. Oliver Wyman partner Abdulelah Albarrak said, “Big projects change lives, but new tech such as AI needs clear focus.” He urged the kingdom to stay ready for change.

Saudi Arabia: A New Place for Opportunity

Alibrahim said, “People now come to Saudi not to collect cash, but to earn money. We are not just a money source; we are now a base of real job chances. We are simply opening new ways.”

As Saudi Arabia takes on AI and tech while tourism grows, it stands in the heart of new ideas in the region. The kingdom aims to run on hard work and grow for the future.

Stay informed with CNBC for the latest on Saudi Arabia’s new economic path and Vision 2030 plans.

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Trump’s Strategic Push: Countering China’s Dominance in Rare Earths Through Multi-Nation Deals

Trump’s Rare Earth Deals Target China’s Dominance — Why Change Won’t Come Soon

Published: October 29, 2025

President Donald Trump acts to break China’s strong hold on rare earth minerals. He signs supply deals with Australia, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Japan. The U.S. seeks more paths for rare earth supply. New deals help secure links to important minerals needed for batteries, cars, defense systems, and computer chips.

The Stakes Behind the Deals

China now holds about:

  • 69% of rare earth mining,
  • 92% of refining, and
  • 98% of magnet production globally,

according to Goldman Sachs. China uses its power to shape prices and supplies by setting export rules.

Trump’s new agreements involve billions of dollars. They require fair trade and promise no export bans or quotas. The pact with Japan secures raw and processed minerals. It also sets funds to start some projects in six months.

Challenges Ahead: Why Change Will Take Time

Analysts note that these deals lay the first stone. Yet, change will cost years. New mines outside China take about ten years to build. New refining facilities may need five years. Dennis Wilder, at Georgetown University, states:

"In the medium term, we will get off the Chinese supply chain, but in the short term, there’s still a great deal of dependency on China."

Some reserves outside Myanmar and China are few. This fact makes quick change hard.

Strategic Benefits and Economic Impacts

Experts point to several benefits:

  • Stabilizing global rare earth prices,
  • Cutting U.S. reliance on Chinese export rules,
  • Driving new ideas for domestic refining and recycling, and
  • Creating fair play for U.S. companies against foreign rivals.

Brodie Sutherland, CEO of Patriot Critical Minerals Corp, calls the deals a “game-changer.” He says that a steady supply from nations that share our values may lead to mining and processing that is both efficient and fair.

Some experts warn of tradeoffs for the environment. In China, lower eco-standards kept costs low. New practices may raise costs. Patrick Schröder from Chatham House says:

"Consumers may need to accept higher prices for electronics and green technologies that reflect their true material and environmental cost."

Market Reactions and Political Context

U.S. rare earth mining companies see gains. For example, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals have more than quadrupled in value this year, and Energy Fuels has tripled.

Observers think that Trump sped up these deals to boost his position before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The two leaders plan talks on issues like China’s export rules, U.S. tariffs, and tech limits.

Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society Policy Institute remarks:

"Beijing’s export control threats have pushed more countries to side with Washington on mineral security."

Dennis Wilder adds that China’s broad export limits were meant as a strong tool against the U.S. but now unite others against Beijing:

"It was a useful tool when aimed at the U.S., but it loses strength when used against many nations."

Looking Forward

The rare earth supply deals mark a key step to cut global ties with China. However, they start a long and tough task. Building mines and refineries, weighing costs against the environment, and managing ties among countries will shape the future of rare earth supply.

For those who watch the market, these changes show that rare earth minerals now play a key part in global plans and might affect technology, defense, and energy in the coming years.

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Trump Eyes Lower Fentanyl Tariffs Ahead of Key Meeting with Xi Jinping

Trump Indicates a Cut in Tariffs on Fentanyl Imports from China Before Meeting with Xi Jinping

October 28, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl imports from China. He set this idea before he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. This move shows a strong step in U.S.-China trade and security talks.

Talks on Fentanyl and Farm Issues

On Air Force One, Trump spoke to reporters. He stressed that fentanyl entering the U.S. and matters of American farmers would be the main topics in his Thursday meeting with Xi. Many in the U.S. worry over the rise of fentanyl and its parts coming from China.

Trump said:

"We are going to discuss fentanyl flows into the U.S. and our farmers. These will be important parts of the conversation."

Here, he shows a strategy to fight drug health problems and to back the farming community. This step may help fix ties between the two nations.

Tariff Cut as Part of a Trade Deal

A report in the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. might cut the present 20% tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese exports by 50%. In return, China would act to stop chemicals used in making fentanyl from leaving the country.

When asked about a one-year break in China’s controls on rare earth exports to gain more U.S. trade moves, Trump said:

"We haven’t talked about the timing yet but we are gonna work out something."

This answer shows that talks are still in progress about trade limits and supply issues that matter to both sides.

Improving U.S.-China Ties

Trump said his relations with China are “very good” and he looked forward to his meeting with Xi Jinping:

"We are going to have a great meeting with China’s Xi."

The meeting is set during a regional summit in South Korea. It may change the ties between the U.S. and China during a time of global change in business and politics.

Key Points Recap:

  • President Trump expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese imports.
  • Talks with Xi Jinping will focus on fentanyl flows and support for U.S. farmers.
  • The potential tariff cuts depend on China stopping chemical exports used for fentanyl.
  • Rare earth export controls continue to be a subject of talks.
  • Trump has a positive view of U.S.-China ties before the meeting.

This story is still growing. Stay tuned for more news about the U.S.-China talks and the effect on trade and global work.

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Job Growth Surge: Private Sector Adds 15,000 Jobs Weekly as ADP Data Shows Economic Resilience

Private Sector Jobs Grow as New Roles Reach Almost 15,000 Each Week, ADP Quick Data Shows

October 28, 2025 – ADP, a well-known payroll company, shares data that shows the private sector added around 14,250 jobs each week for the past month. This rise comes after job losses in September and gives a brighter view of current work trends.

Key Points from ADP’s Quick Report

• In the last four weeks, companies made almost 15,000 new jobs each week.
• ADP now tracks a four-week average of week-to-week job changes. The report uses data that ends on October 11.
• This new report helps show work trends in near real time. It comes at a time when a government shutdown made official data hard to get.

The New ADP Job Count

ADP now shows week-to-week job changes averaged over four weeks. This tool helps investors, analysts, and policy experts see simple hints of job trends. The old National Employment Report (NER) does the work in these ways:

  • It counts job numbers once a month during the week that includes the 12th.
  • It gives details for each work sector.
  • It is shared once a month, just before the government release for payroll numbers.

The new ADP count gives a steady, rolling look at the market. It works as an early sign of job changes while the NER gives a fuller picture when it is released.

What the Data Means

The report shows that the weekly gain of 14,250 jobs adds up to about 55,000 jobs in a month. This strong gain stands in contrast to the NER report that showed a net loss of about 32,000 jobs in September.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said,
"ADP’s quick job data, shared each week, gives us a clear view of the work market now. It shows both new job creation and job loss with much detail."

Note that these early numbers can change when the full NER data for October comes out.

Looking Ahead

ADP now shares its weekly reports at this busy time for the U.S. economy. At a moment when many need the latest work data amid changes in policy and economy, the information may help the market and guide financial choices until government data goes back to its normal schedule.

For readers who follow work market updates, ADP will keep posting these four-week average reports every Tuesday. This steady view helps track changes in private sector employment.

Stay tuned as more data and month-end updates come in.

Source: ADP quick job data as reported by CNBC

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Resilient Yet Rattled: WTO Insights on Global Trade’s Tough Battle Against Tariffs

WTO Chief Affirms Resilience of Global Trade Amidst U.S. Tariff Turmoil

October 28, 2025 — U.S. tariffs hit many imported goods, and the trade system holds strong. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO head, told CNBC in Saudi Arabia that the trade system is "battered and bruised but still standing." Here, each word works close to its partner so the meaning stays clear.

Unprecedented Disruptions but a System Holding Strong

The United States, led by President Donald Trump, acts alone. His move causes what Okonjo-Iweala calls the "greatest disruption of global trade in 80 years." Since early 2025, the U.S. set tariffs on many goods from many lands. These actions raise tension and doubt in global markets, yet the system does not collapse.
"Many think trade is broken because of these U.S. tariffs," she notes. "That view is not right."

The Focus on Trump-Xi Meeting

U.S. President Donald Trump tours Asia. He signs trade deals and pacts as he goes. On Thursday, he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump hopes to reach a deal to lower duties and counter-tariffs.
Okonjo-Iweala hopes the meeting goes well. She notes that easing trade fights helps all nations.

  • Stopping trade splits and fights between the U.S. and China is needed.
  • A split into two trade groups would hurt world prosperity.
  • Countries with fewer resources would suffer the most.

WTO’s Mixed Forecast for Global Trade

The WTO now sees global trade growing by 2.4% in 2025 instead of 0.9% as it thought in August. In contrast, the view for 2026 is weak at 0.5%, down from 1.8% before.
The WTO points to two ideas for this drop:

  • A cooling world economy
  • The effect of high tariffs slowing trade

Factors Fueling Trade Growth in Early 2025

Trade grew by 4.9% in the first half of 2025. U.S. buyers made extra purchases before more tariffs came in. Good economic signals—such as low inflation, sound government budgets, and strong job markets—helped raise incomes and spending. Fast growth in new markets also helped trade move up.

AI Grows in Global Trade

A new force in trade is the rise of artificial intelligence. AI goods include chips, servers, and telecom gear. AI trade made up nearly half of the growth in the first half of the year and climbed 20% from 2024.
Global contest for AI runs as follows:

  • The United States contributed about one-fifth of the AI trade growth.
  • Asia drove nearly two-thirds of the increase in AI trade.

Conclusion

Global trade faces many hurdles from disputes and tariffs. Still, the WTO chief holds a cautious hope. The system has survived heavy shocks. It may grow stronger if the U.S. and China calm their tensions and work together on trade. Steps to ease trade fights help not only the nations in question but also many others, especially those with smaller economies.

For further updates on global trade developments and market insights, stay tuned to CNBC.

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Five Essential Insights from the Latest Consumer Price Index Report: Navigating Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Implications

Five Key Takeaways from Friday’s Consumer Price Index Report

On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its long-waited Consumer Price Index report. A government shutdown delayed the report by a week and a half. The CPI is a key economic indicator. It tracks changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services. The report also sets the benchmark for adjusting Social Security cost of living allowances.

Here are the five most important insights from the latest CPI data:

1. Inflation Remains Above Target but Shows Signs of Moderation

  • The headline inflation rate went up by 0.3% this month and 3.0% this year. The numbers are a bit lower than many forecasts.
  • Core inflation, which leaves out the unstable food and energy sectors, increased 0.2% monthly and 3.0% yearly.
  • Inflation still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data hints that the pressure on prices is not growing fast and may be easing in key areas.

2. Markets Anticipate Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

  • Market signals suggest that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week.
  • A second cut in December also appears likely. The FedWatch tool shows only a 4% chance that the Fed will not lower rates twice before year-end.
  • This view shows more trust that slower inflation can allow the Fed to reduce rates.

3. Tariffs and Immigration Effects Are Modest but Noticeable

  • Some products affected by tariffs and immigration show mixed price movements:
    • Price for clothing increased by 0.7%, and sporting goods prices rose by 1.0%.
    • Smartphone prices dropped by 2.2%, marking a 14.9% decline compared to a year ago.
    • Gardening and lawn care services saw a yearly price jump of 13.9%.
  • The impact from tariffs appears as a short rise in prices rather than an ongoing inflation trend.

4. Shelter Costs Show Some Relief

  • Shelter costs, which cover about one-third of consumer spending, went up by 0.2% this month and 3.6% over the year.
  • The measure for owners’ equivalent rent rose by just 0.1%, the smallest rise since November 2020.
  • This small increase in shelter costs may ease the overall pressure on inflation.

5. Government Shutdown Impact on Reporting

  • The shutdown halted all other federal economic data efforts. The CPI report was completed mainly because it affects Social Security adjustments.
  • As a result, this may be the last official inflation report until the shutdown ends and normal reporting picks up again.

Expert Perspectives on the Report

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Head of Fixed Income and a possible future Fed Chair, said:
"In aggregate, today’s inflation readings look good, even if they are still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. We think the overall trend in inflation can slow down over the next year, which could allow the Fed to tilt towards cutting rates."

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSK, noted:
"Large rises in food, meat, housing, and utility costs hit middle-class and lower-income households hard. They face slow wage growth and have a hard time adjusting to these higher living costs."

Krishna Guha, Head of Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISM, remarked:
"The price effects from tariffs seem small and point to a one-time price rise rather than a lasting inflation issue."

Conclusion

The CPI report shows a guardedly positive view on inflation. Prices for goods and services are rising slowly while some important costs grow less quickly. Financial markets now expect Fed rate cuts, signaling hopes that inflation will ease further. Yet many lower-income households still feel the strain of rising food and housing costs.

As the government shutdown puts a hold on other economic data, investors and officials will watch closely for clear signs on the future of inflation and policy steps.

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Analysis and quotes from CNBC and financial experts.

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September CPI Report Reveals Surprising Drop in Inflation to 3%: What It Means for the Fed and Your Wallet

September 2025 CPI Inflation Rate Hits 3%, Lower Than Expected

On October 24, 2025, the BLS shared a report. The report shows the CPI rate for September at 3.0%. It is a bit higher than in August but still below what some had thought. This report gives clear insight into U.S. inflation during a government shutdown when most other data stops.

Key Inflation Figures

• Monthly Increase: CPI went up by 0.3% in September, not 0.4% as predicted.
• Annual Inflation: The yearly rate stayed at 3.0%, a shade below the forecast of 3.1%.
• Core CPI: When we leave out food and energy, core CPI grew by 0.2% for the month and also showed a 3.0% annual rate, again a little under the expected 3.1%.

The core CPI monthly gain of 0.2% is lower than the 0.3% rises in July and August, which hints at a slow down in core inflation.

Components Driving Inflation

• Energy Prices: Gasoline costs jumped by 4.1% in September. Even as this month brought a surge, gas prices fell by 0.5% over the year.
• Food Prices: Food costs edged up 0.2% month by month, with an annual rise of 3.1%. Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs jumped 5.2% over the year. Nonalcoholic beverages, likewise, climbed 5.3%.
• Shelter Costs: This part makes up about one third of the CPI. Shelter costs grew by 0.2% in September and 3.6% over the year.
• Other Services & Goods: Service prices (other than shelter) rose by 0.2%, new vehicle prices increased by 0.8%, and used car and truck prices dropped by 0.4%.

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

Following the release, stock futures moved up while Treasury yields went lower. Experts see the lower inflation as a sign that the Fed may cut interest rates soon.

John Kerschner, head of securitized products at Janus Henderson, said the report feels "like an oasis slaking the thirst of a weary desert traveler" amid a lack of government data. He added that the report “shows the Fed will cut rates at next week’s meeting.”

The Role of Tariffs and Economic Outlook

Some worry about tariffs set by the previous administration, but they have not raised overall inflation much so far. James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, noted that U.S. companies now source from countries with lower tariffs. This shift cuts the anticipated price rise from tariffs.

He did warn that tariff-related price bumps might grow. However, he sees these as a one-time jump rather than a long-lasting trend.

Last Official Data Before the Fed Decision

This CPI report is the only new economic data during the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. The data came out because the Social Security Administration needs the CPI to set cost-of-living payments.

The Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate and sees more than that now. The new reading will shape their interest rate choices next week. Markets now expect a 0.25% cut from the 4.00%–4.25% range with more softening in December.

Conclusion

The September CPI shows that inflation is present but not as strong as some thought. This softer trend gives room to cut rates and help the economy, even as the job market weakens and issues with the budget persist.

Investors and policymakers now await new reports. For now, the 3% inflation rate provides a hopeful sign of more stable prices in the U.S. economy.

For ongoing updates on the inflation report and its impact for markets and monetary policy, stay tuned to our economic coverage.

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Anticipation Builds for Friday’s Crucial Inflation Report: What Analysts Are Predicting

Everyone is Waiting for Friday’s Big Inflation Report: Here’s What to Expect

Thursday, October 23, 2025 – Wall Street eyes Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This event marks the key data of the month. The government shutdown now limits usual data. This report now holds more sway on markets and policy talks. Many experts call it “the report to end all reports.”

Key Context: Why This CPI Report Matters More Than Usual

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the report on Friday, October 24. The report was set for October 15 but got pushed back by the shutdown. Its release comes before the Federal Reserve meets for policy talks, which wrap on Wednesday, October 29. Troy Ludtka, a senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said, “We have little fresh government data, so all eyes are on this report.” With few new numbers available, investors, analysts, and policy makers want to see clear signs of inflation trends.

What the Forecast Looks Like

Wall Street believes that September’s CPI will follow last month’s path and show steady inflation:

  • Monthly all-items CPI: May rise by 0.4%, as it did in August.
  • Year-over-year inflation rate: May hit 3.1%, up 0.2 points from August.
  • Core CPI (without food and energy): May go up by 0.3% for the month and hold at 3.1% for the year, as in August.
  • The annual core number would be the highest since January 2025. Though many expect the same trends, even small shifts could make markets jump, as the lack of data makes each number count.

Special Focus: Trade Tariffs and Price Effects

Analysts watch the effects of trade tensions linked with President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Goldman Sachs experts note:

  • Auto prices may hold steady.
  • Car insurance may see a rise.
  • Airfares could drop.
  • Prices for phones, home goods, and recreational items might face some upward pull.
  • In all, tariffs may add about 0.07 points to core inflation.

Data Reliability Concerns Amid the Shutdown

The shutdown casts doubt on the accuracy of economic data. Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, warned, “The market misses key data now, so there is added uncertainty.”

Even with these doubts, investors show strength. Stock averages near record highs persist despite daily moves.

Broader Market and Economic Implications

Geopolitical risk and changes in tariff policy cause worry about inflation and economic growth. Earlier numbers showed a strong U.S. economy, with the Atlanta Fed near a 4% GDP growth estimate for the third quarter.

The CPI numbers will shape what the Federal Reserve decides at its meeting, where many foresee a quarter-point rate cut. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said, “A big surprise on the high side would make the market rethink a rate cut.”

Market Reactions: Volatility Ahead?

Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, warned that higher numbers could boost market swings. Still, she sees a chance to buy as the economy stays strong, the Fed may cut rates, EPS grows in double digits, and the fourth quarter tends to be strong.

Conclusion

In short, Friday’s CPI report now stands as the month’s top economic event. It may shape markets, policy talks, and investor views. While numbers are expected to show steady inflation, the lack of data from the shutdown and ongoing global risks bring extra focus on every figure.

Investors and analysts watching inflation should note the report on October 24 and watch the market moves that may follow.

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