Tag Archive for: Fed

China’s Manufacturing Surge Sparks AUD/USD Rally and Stock Market Optimism

China Manufacturing Rebound Fuels AUD/USD Gains, Stocks Climb

September 1, 2025 — By Bob Mason

China manufacturing shocked the market this August when it quickly recovered. The rise pushed the Australian dollar up and lifted stock indexes like the Hang Seng. New data shows China’s economic pace amid global trade strains and home challenges.

China’s Manufacturing Expansion Surprises Traders

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index gave a score of 50.5 this month. This score passed the neutral line at 50, which marks the change from decline to growth. It rose from July’s 49.5 and beat economists’ prediction of 49.5. The survey showed a few clear trends:

  • Output rose for the second time in three months. This step came with rising local demand.
  • New orders increased quickly. They grew at the fastest pace since March and point to a boost in business moves.
  • Even as new orders picked up, export orders fell a bit. This drop continued for five months in a row and shows that the market outside stays tough.
  • Firms cut staff for the fifth month in a row. They act with care in hiring amid unsure times.
  • Higher material prices led to higher input costs. This marked the fastest rise since November 2024.
  • Some companies bumped up prices a little. This ended eight months of falling prices, although the average selling price stayed nearly the same.
  • Producer mood reached its best level since early 2025. This change came as many hoped for better conditions and more business growth.

Expert Insights on the Manufacturing Recovery

Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, said the manufacturing sector helps the economic recovery even if the rise is uneven. He noted weak local demand, soft profits, and slow business bounce can cut the strength of the rebound. He also mentioned that rising costs keep pressure on profit margins in a competitive market.

Market Reaction: Australian Dollar and Hang Seng Index Rally

The good manufacturing data from China quickly touched money markets:

  • The AUD/USD pair fell at first to 0.65367 after the index came out. It soon climbed to 0.65442 and later edged up by 0.12% to 0.65436. With about one-third of Australia’s exports going to China, strong Chinese demand boosts Australia’s economy. This help comes as many expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates.

    In the July press talk, Governor Michele Bullock stressed how China’s trade terms and support moves could shield Australia from US tariff effects.

  • The Hang Seng Index acted in a similar way. It dropped briefly to 25,471 before rising to a peak of 25,609. At the time of the report, the index had climbed by 2.02% to trade at 25,585. This rise shows more investor hope because of the manufacturing rebound, even though risks remain.

Focus on Trade Talks and Support Measures

The drop in export orders still makes things hard. Last week, China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang met US officials. Work on trade deals may push outside demand and help China reach a 5% GDP rise in 2025. If trade talks slow or local demand stays low, Beijing may act with extra support to lift the economy. Such steps may help the Australian dollar and stocks listed in Hong Kong. On the other hand, if support does not come and external demand weakens more, these markets might feel the strain.

Looking Ahead

Market watchers now study China’s trade talks and any new domestic moves. Investors should keep up with the latest news and change plans as new data and political moves appear.

For those trading in this busy field, fast news and clear views can help capture new trends and avoid risks.

About the Author:
Bob Mason has over 28 years of experience in the financial sector, having worked with global rating agencies and multinational banks. His work covers currencies, commodities, alternative assets, and global equities with a special focus on European and Asian markets.

For more updates on economic indicators, forex trading strategies, and market forecasts, visit FXEmpire.

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China’s Manufacturing Sector Struggles: NBS PMI Reports Woes Amid Trade Talks and Economic Uncertainty

China’s Manufacturing Sector Faces Continued Challenges Amid US Trade Talks and Mixed Economic Signals

August 31, 2025 – China’s manufacturing sector shows strain as it handles trade tensions with the United States. New data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a steady drop in factory work. This drop makes the future of the economy less clear for the third quarter and for Beijing’s GDP goals.

Manufacturing PMI Reflects Fifth Month of Contraction

On August 31, the National Bureau of Statistics set the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index at 49.4 in August. The index barely moved up from 49.3 in July. It stays below 50. This is the fifth month with a loss. The small change points to ongoing struggles in the industrial sector.

The Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, climbed from 50.1 to 50.3. This small rise shows that service work grows a bit. Analysts warn that weak consumer spending might stop a stronger overall growth.

Key Manufacturing Indicators Reflect Mixed Trends

• The New Export Orders Index moved up 0.1 point to 47.2. The score stays low. It shows weak demand from abroad.
• The New Orders Index reached 49.5 after a small rise. This value shows low orders at home.
• The Employment Index dropped to 47.9. Fewer workers are keeping pace.
• Prices for raw materials jumped 2.2 points to 53.3. This rise may cut profit margins.

Even with small gains, factories must cope with higher costs and weaker order numbers at home and abroad.

Consumer Weakness Clouds Growth Outlook

Retail sales grew 3.7% in July over last year. They were 4.8% in June. This change shows that consumer spending is slowing down. Unemployment climbed from 5% to 5.2% in July. Youth unemployment jumped from 14.5% to 17.8%. Many new graduates add to the job search. Beijing has called for more support for businesses to train and hire new workers.

Economists see a hard cycle. Lower selling prices force factories to cut costs. This cycle puts pressure on wages and lessens the money people have to spend. Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said:

"It is China’s manufacturing workers who lose out while exports and growth do not stop. If you need to export at a loss, do not export. The data will not show Chinese workers as the main victims because they might face unpaid leave or reduced hours."

Trade Talks and Market Reactions

Trade talks between China and the United States start again as these numbers come out. China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, met with several U.S. agencies last week. He went over ideas from past deals. Market players watch these talks for any sign that tariff strain might ease and trade might pick up.

Some investors wait for Caixin’s Manufacturing and Services PMI next week. This report looks at smaller, private companies, especially in coastal areas. It adds a view to the state-based National Bureau of Statistics data.

Market indices show mixed moves. Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose by 2.71%. The Shanghai Composite Index grew by 0.84%. These gains come from hope over a possible trade deal and extra support steps. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.03%, hurt by low industrial profits and shifts in Federal Reserve ideas. The AUD/USD pair went up 0.71% during the week and closed at $0.65360 as risk mood got better.

Implications and Outlook

China’s steady drop in manufacturing and slow growth in services make its goal of a consumer-led economy with a 5% yearly GDP growth hard to reach. The mixed PMI numbers point to a need for new support measures to fight trade strain and weak domestic demand.

Market watchers will keep an eye on the next Caixin data, future trade discussions, and new policy moves. These steps will shape the mood in Chinese stock and currency markets in the near term.

—
Bob Mason
Financial Markets Analyst and Reporter
Published August 31, 2025

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July Core Inflation Stays Steady at 2.9%: What It Means for Federal Reserve Policy and Consumer Spending

Core Inflation Hits 2.9% in July as Forecasted, Reinforcing Fed’s Cautious Tone

By James Hyerczyk
Updated: August 29, 2025, 13:25 GMT

In July 2025, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index showed a 2.9% rise over the past year. This key gauge, watched by many at the Fed, reached the number that many expected. The rise connects directly to the strong inflation pressure that tests the Fed’s price goal and policy.

Inflation Figures Signal Ongoing Price Pressures

The core PCE index cuts out the food and energy prices. It jumped 0.3% this month. This gain shows that core inflation is staying firm. The full PCE index, which brings all prices into view, went up 2.6% over the year with a 0.2% monthly gain.
These numbers tower over the Fed’s 2% target. The high pace links to the Fed’s idea that rates remain high for an extra span. The steady core inflation makes quick rate cuts unlikely.

Consumer Spending Strengthens Amid Inflation Concerns

Consumer spending forms a strong link in overall growth. In July, spending added $108.9 billion, a 0.5% increase. Spending on services climbed by $60.2 billion while spending on goods gained $48.7 billion. When price rises are removed, real spending climbed 0.3%.
The U.S. consumer sector stays strong and holds the economy up. Yet spending crept up faster than real disposable income, which only rose 0.2%. This gap may cause strain if wage growth does not follow or if price drops do not come soon.

Savings Rate Declines as Income Growth Lags Behind Spending

Personal income increased by 0.4% in July. This bump matched the rise in disposable income. Still, with spending outpacing income, the saving rate dropped from 4.6% in June to 4.4%. This drop ties to households using their savings to keep spending at its current level. Such a link may limit how much people can spend if high prices hold on.
Even though wage gains moved well, they did not match the jump in spending, and pressure on household budgets grows.

Federal Reserve’s Policy Outlook: Caution Prevails

Core inflation stays high. The 0.3% monthly rise in the core PCE builds into a yearly pace that keeps worries about prices alive. This pace supports the Fed’s plan to keep interest rates high for more time.
Policy makers lean on the need for price drops to become steady before cutting rates. Their approach remains careful and guided by new data.

Market Implications: Bonds Bearish, Equities Mixed

Market moves show care as the inflation data settles in. U.S. Treasury yields carry an upward pull because of the lasting inflation. Some market areas that feel high rates could have more strain. Stocks tied to consumer buying power might stand firm. In general, stocks sit in a narrow range until clear shifts in inflation or policy show up.

About the Author
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and teacher with over 40 years in market work. He studies chart shapes and price changes and has written two books on technical analysis. He works in both futures and stock markets.

Summary:
In July, core inflation rose by 2.9% over the past year. The number backs the Fed’s plan to keep high interest rates until price drops are firm. Consumer spending stays strong but grows faster than income, which cuts back on savings. The Fed’s careful tone means rate cuts are not near, and market moves may continue to link closely with inflation data.

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China’s Growth in Jeopardy: Mexico’s Tariff Move Signals a New Trade Crisis with the US

China Risks Growth Setback as Mexico Joins US in Trade Crackdown

By Bob Mason | Published August 28, 2025, 03:41 GMT+00:00

China’s economy faces more strain this quarter. Mexico now plans tariffs on Chinese goods, and the US stays firm with its own tariffs. These moves may stop Beijing from hitting a 5% GDP growth target by the end of 2025. The actions add a new side to long-standing US-China trade tension. They may cut trade routes and slow export activity.

Mexico’s Tariff Plans Amplify Trade Pressures on China

The US and China set a pause in their trade war but keep high tariffs. The US holds around a 55% tariff on Chinese imports. At the same time, China keeps a 10% tariff on American goods. China has so far sidestepped a proposed 145% tariff on goods sent directly to the US. Yet, the US now uses a plan that touches other nations by taxing goods that pass through them.

Mexico now will raise tariffs on products from China. Mexico plays an important role in China’s auto industry, serving as a key place for manufacturing and export. Chinese car makers like BYD, Chery, and MG Motors have spent over $700 million in Mexico. New tariffs on Chinese exports to Mexico, mixed with the existing US tariffs on imports from Mexico, may cut interest for Chinese car parts and vehicles meant for North America.

Mexico stands as the top source of US auto imports. This fact makes the trade route very important for China’s auto market.

Potential US Influence on Mexico’s Trade Policy

Observers note that US trade rules work not only on China directly but also on nearby nations. In July, the US set a 40% tariff on goods that travel via Vietnam and a 19% tariff on Indonesian products. Such taxes have touched Chinese exports that go through Southeast Asia. Even as Chinese exports grew 7.2% in July with help from demand in Southeast Asia, these taxes might hit future trade numbers.

Mexico’s tariff move comes after reports that the US government is thinking about tighter rules on goods that do not come directly. These rules may make it hard for China to send its products around existing tariffs.

Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said, "Rerouting will be much harder in the second half [of 2025]. That will hit Chinese exports indirectly. The government has been working on plans for a tougher period ahead."

Trade Talks and Market Responses

Trade barriers have grown as China and the US prepare for new talks. China’s main trade negotiator Li Chenggang will soon travel to Washington to discuss steps that may shape ties between the two nations.

Even with these strains, Beijing backs its policies. Mainland China’s stock indices – the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite – reached year-to-date highs before a drop on August 27. On that day, the CSI 300 fell by 1.49% and the Shanghai Composite dropped by 1.76%. Both indices later regained ground on the morning of August 28 with increases of 1.19% and 0.58%, respectively. They have outperformed the US Nasdaq Composite in 2025, though they still follow Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which has risen 24.8% this year.

Market watchers now focus on upcoming economic reports. They await the National Bureau of Statistics’ private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on August 31 and September 1. These surveys will show if tariffs are weighing on China’s manufacturing sector. If the PMI numbers show a drop, new government aid plans from Beijing might help push the stock market higher.

Looking Ahead: Economic Headwinds and Policy Responses

China must now balance outside press with its goal for steady growth. The nation’s use of indirect trade routes has softened the impact so far. But Mexico’s rising tariffs and new rules on goods passing through third countries now cut that protection.

The outcome of the upcoming US-China trade talks and any new plans from Beijing may decide if China keeps its growth pace in 2025 or must adjust its targets.

For ongoing updates on China’s trade policies and market trends, readers can monitor real-time reports and consult economic calendars provided by FXEmpire.

About the Author:
Bob Mason has over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, covering currencies, commodities, and equity markets with a focus on European and Asian economies.

This article is intended for informational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

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China’s Industrial Profits Take a Hit: Analyzing July’s Decline and Market Implications

China Industrial Profits Fall 1.7% in July, Defying Expectations; Hang Seng Index Experiences Mixed Movement

By Bob Mason | Published August 27, 2025, 02:36 GMT

China’s industrial profits drop 1.7% in July during the January to July period. The fall comes close to the 1.8% that experts had predicted. Tariffs, lower global demand, and price cuts from fierce competition add weight to the loss.

Industrial Profits and Margins Under Pressure

The drop in profits is a sign of weakness in China’s manufacturing sector. Companies now face high input costs and lower selling prices. US tariffs and soft export numbers push margins down. These pressures also make it hard for firms to win new business.

Manufacturing Sector Weakness Reflected in PMI Data

China’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 50.4 in June to 49.5 in July. The score slipping below 50 shows that manufacturing activity is contracting. Export orders have dropped for four months in a row.

Key points in the PMI report include:
• Export orders falling for a fourth month
• Input prices rising with higher raw material costs
• Companies cutting selling prices to deal with competition

Lower demand and squeezed margins force manufacturers to reduce their workforce. Fewer jobs add to the problems in the labor market and may slow Beijing’s drive to boost domestic spending.

Labor Market Challenges Mount

China’s job market shows signs of strain. The overall unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.0% in June. Youth joblessness climbed from 14.5% to 17.8% at the same time. Many new graduates now face a hard search in a tight job market. Policymakers are working on plans that bring more jobs and steady the economy.

Beijing’s Policy Response to Economic Headwinds

With the economic speed dropping in the third quarter, Premier Li Qiang has announced plans to increase government spending, steady the housing market, and fix work market issues. Experts expect Beijing to introduce more support measures this year to meet the 5% GDP goal for 2025. Natixis Asia Pacific Chief Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero said:
"China may meet its 2025 growth aim if more stimulus comes; the later months must face risks from trade issues and falling prices. The government is ready to add more steps when needed."

Market Reaction and Outlook

While profits fell less than expected, the market did not show full confidence. The Hang Seng Index reached 25,653 and then dropped to 25,565. It finally closed 0.26% higher at 25,592. Meanwhile, Mainland China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index dropped slightly by 0.05% and 0.18%.

Looking ahead, the National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing PMI for August and new trade talks with the US will shape views. Reports say China’s trade official Li Chenggang may soon visit Washington to restart discussions. A PMI score above 50 could ease worries, while a lower score might push Beijing to push stronger measures to boost growth.

About the Author:
Bob Mason has more than 28 years of experience in finance. He studies money, raw goods, stocks, and major economic trends across Europe and Asia.

For more detailed reading and current market views, visit FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar.

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Reviving Confidence: China’s New Housing Stimulus Fuels Stock Market Surge as Trade Talks Approach

China’s Housing Fix: New Stimulus Sparks Stock Gains, Trade Talks Loom

By Bob Mason
Published: August 26, 2025, 04:06 GMT+00:00

Beijing’s New Stimulus Aims to Revive Housing and the Economy

Beijing set new policies to help its weak housing market. The city made these plans in Shanghai on August 25, 2025. The policies are meant to raise buyer demand and lift the real estate scene. Investors saw the news and grew hopeful when stocks reached highs seen in many years.

Officials said the rules start on August 26. They ease rules for buying houses and raise limits on loans from housing funds. Buyers can use funds for down payments. The state also drops a temporary tax for first-time buyers who live outside the area. It cuts taxes on houses bought later by outsiders. The state will treat house loans the same, no matter if it is first or second. The aim is clear: help home buyers and steady the market.

Housing Data Sparks the New Plan

The housing market showed poor signs. From January to July 2025, building work in real estate fell 12% compared to last year. In July, home sales areas dropped 4% against last July. June dropped by 3.5% before. Total sales fell 6.5%. New houses lost 0.3% of their value in July. For the first seven months, average home values slipped 4.5%.

These numbers show tough winds for a market that once powered China’s growth. A weak real estate scene joins the problems from trade strains with the United States. Factories slowed and buyers lost some hope.

Stock Market Lifts on Stimulus News

The news raised investor mood. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index jumped 3.64% at first and ended the day up 2.72%. Main indices in Mainland China moved up too. The CSI 300 hit highs seen in three years, and the Shanghai Composite reached a 10-year peak. Some experts watch the stocks and say that while the rise is real, retail investors act with care unlike past rallies.

Economist Hao Hong said that stock markets help shape how consumers feel. He thought a stock rebound can quickly lift home feel. He warned that slow retail cheer might help keep the rise steady and not cause a burst.

Economy Faces Growth Hurdles and Needs More Help

The mix of policy changes now lifts the market. Yet experts say more state support may be needed to reach the 5% GDP goal for 2025. Job loss among youth is a big worry. Youth rates rose from 14.5% in June to 17.8% in July, the highest in nearly a year. The overall rate sits at 5.2%. These job issues add fear to China’s growth path, hurt by trade strains and internal shifts.

Natixis Asia Pacific’s head economist Alicia Garcia Herrero said, "China may hit its target next year. But more state aid is needed, and the next half of the year will test us. Many gaps lie ahead, but the state has extra help if we need it."

A recent letter from Kobeissi pointed out signs of weakness:
• Fixed-asset growth slowed to 1.6% – the lowest in five years.
• Property growth fell by 12% – the worst drop since 2020’s lows.
• Retail sales grew only 3.7% in July, down from 4.8% in June.
• Industrial work grew at a slow 5.7% annually, the weakest since November.
• Yuan new loans showed a decline for the first time in twenty years, a sign of soft credit demand.

Market Moves and the Road Ahead

On August 26, 2025, stocks dipped in the morning but kept near recent highs by the close. The CSI 300 gained over 9% in August and more than 13% for the year. The Shanghai Composite gained about 8.5% in the month and more than 15% year-to-date. The Hang Seng Index grew by 28.6% this year.

These gains depend on more state help and better US-China ties. Rising trade strains or slow policy work can shake investor trust.

Trade Talks on the Horizon

With many pressures on the economy, traders and officials now watch US-China trade talks. The future of these talks can shift China’s path and affect world trade. As Beijing uses more measures to steady the market amid hard global and local issues, everyone watches how new trade steps and local plans join to impact both the market and the economy.

Conclusion

The new housing rules in China lifted stocks and brought careful hope to a slowing market. Yet experts say more state aid may be needed to hit growth goals and keep jobs safe. With trade talks coming, the next weeks will shape China’s path and how investors feel.

For more updates on global markets and economic policies, stay tuned to FXEmpire.

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Market Buzz: Powell Hints at Potential Fed Rate Cut After Jackson Hole – Is a Shift in Policy on the Horizon?

Powell Signals Possible Fed Rate Cut as Policy Risks Shift After Jackson Hole Speech

By James Hyerczyk | August 22, 2025, 14:27 GMT

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell spoke in a clear, tight manner. He flagged that the Fed may cut rates soon. He did not promise a change, but his speech showed that the Fed sees more risk to growth. The market now links his words with a possible rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

Cautious Yet Dovish Tone from Powell

Powell chose his words with care. His calm tone met market views that hint at softer policy soon. He tied today’s economic shifts to growing risks for growth. Powell said the risks might push the Fed to adjust its policy. His words kept the option for a cut open while urging care in each step.

Market Reacts: Stocks Rally, Yields Decline

Soon after Powell’s talk, U.S. stocks climbed. The Dow rose by over 600 points in one day. The two-year Treasury yield dropped 8 basis points to 3.71%. These moves reflect market ties between his words and a coming rate cut. Powell made it clear that future moves will rest on fresh economic data.

Mixed Economic Signals: Solid Labor Market, Inflation Risks

In his talk, Powell painted a picture that mixed strength with warning. The labor market stayed strong and overall growth held steady. Yet he pointed to trade and tariff risks that may push prices up. Supply problems from trade issues add pressure on inflation. Powell said reset time is needed before these factors calm down. His tone shows that the Fed will work from real data each day.

Revisiting Fed Framework and Maintaining Credibility

Powell recalled the 2020 move to flexible average inflation targeting. This plan let inflation rise above 2% for a time. He admitted that an unexpected run in prices after the pandemic forced a tough look at the plan. The goal remains a steady 2% inflation mark. Powell’s words stressed that the Fed must keep its promise on price stability while watching for growth risks.

Independence Amid Political Pressure

Powell also addressed the topic of politics. He stated that the Fed makes choices from data alone. His clear words push back on claims of political influence. In doing so, he upheld the idea that the Fed’s work rests on economic facts.

Looking Ahead: Data the Deciding Factor for September

Powell kept his focus on data. He said that future moves depend on fresh numbers, especially from inflation and consumer spending. Even though many now tie his words to a rate cut, the Fed waits for clear signals. Analysts see a chance to buy during market pulls when the data comes in weak. The big test lies ahead in September, with each number playing its part.

Summary

Powell’s Jackson Hole talk hints at a near-term rate cut as the Fed sees extra risk for growth. Markets pushed stocks up and pulled yields down, yet the Fed stands by a data-first path. Investors should look to upcoming reports as the September meeting draws near.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a market analyst and teacher from the U.S. He brings over 40 years of experience in following price moves and chart trends. He has written two books on technical analysis and works with both futures and stocks.

For more detailed economic calendars and market forecasts, visit FXEmpire.

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EIA’s Disappointing Natural Gas Storage Report: What It Means for Prices and Traders

EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Misses Estimates, Influencing Market Dynamics

The U.S. Energy Information Administration put out its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on August 21, 2025. The report shows a build of +13 billion cubic feet in working gas. Analysts had expected a build of +22 billion cubic feet. Last week, the build reached +56 billion cubic feet.

Current Inventory Levels

Natural gas stocks now sit +174 billion cubic feet above the average of the past five years. Stock levels are -95 billion cubic feet lower compared to last year. The numbers show a shift in supply trends.

Market Reaction and Outlook

After the report came out, natural gas prices moved higher. Traders saw the smaller build as a sign that the storage market might change. The market now sees a chance for short-covering.
Prices have been under pressure since mid-July. Even if supply stays high, the recent data seem to give a small lift. Prices try to settle above the $2.80 mark. If they clear that point, they may rise toward the $3.00 to $3.05 range. The current strength index shows room for short-term gains.

Demand and Weather Factors

Weather forecasts now predict cooler days ahead. Temperatures should drop soon. This drop may trim natural gas use in the near future. Even though current use stays high, fading demand may hold back price gains.

Summary

  • Storage Build: +13 Bcf (short of the forecasted +22 Bcf)
  • Inventory Levels: +174 Bcf above the five-year average; -95 Bcf below last year
  • Price Reaction: Natural gas prices rose after the report; they now try to break the $2.80 mark
  • Outlook: Prices may rise toward $3.00-$3.05 if momentum holds, but cooler weather might slow gains

Investors and traders watch new reports and weather changes carefully. These factors shape the natural gas market in the coming weeks.

About the Author: Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. He studies both long-term trends and short-term market changes.

For more economic events and updates, visit the economic calendar.

Disclaimer: The article provides information only and is not trading advice. Conditions in the market can shift fast. Investors should do their own research and talk with a financial advisor before trading.

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US Jobless Claims Surge: Manufacturing Declines and Inflation Concerns Emerge

US Jobless Claims Increase Amid Weakening Regional Manufacturing and Rising Inflation Pressures

Date: August 21, 2025
Author: James Hyerczyk

Recent US numbers show the link between rising jobless claims and slowing growth in manufacturing. Labor market data now joins manufacturing figures in pointing to a softer economy. Traders worry as the Federal Reserve reads these signals when it sets its next steps.

Rising Jobless Claims Signal Cooling Labor Market

Initial US claims reached 235,000 for the week ending August 16. This number beats forecasts of 225,000 and sits at the highest level since June. The rise builds week after week. Continuing claims now total 1.97 million; they top past expectations and hit a peak last seen in November 2021. These signs tie more workers to unemployment benefits. They also connect weak labor demand with possible market shifts ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. The data keep both traders and analysts alert.

Manufacturing Sector Outlook Deteriorates

The August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing losing ground. The overall activity index falls from 15.9 to -0.3. New orders sink into negative figures at -1.9 for the first time since April. Shipments drop to 4.5, while the employment index falls to 5.9, yet it still hints at some hiring.

A slight rise in the average workweek cannot mask the decline in new orders. Seventy-four percent of companies report no changes in employment, while only 16% see more workers. This pattern ties low order levels to weak regional production in the third quarter.

Inflationary Pressures Remain Elevated

Prices keep rising as manufacturers face higher bills and costs. The prices paid index jumps by 8 points to settle at 66.8, a level unseen since May 2022. Meanwhile, prices received by manufacturers grow to 36.1. Firms now expect 12-month cost rises to reach 4.1%, up from 3.8% back in May.

More than half of the companies expect costs to rise over the next six months. Seventy-one percent see competitors raise prices soon. Even though forecasted wage growth slows from 4.0% to 3.5%, high input and output price expectations hold inflation high.

Market Implications: Cautious Sentiment on Economy and Fed Policy

The mix of rising unemployment claims, soft manufacturing orders, and ongoing inflation yields a mixed outlook. Firms keep a positive view for the future even as current figures show slowing growth. Analysts see these links as a sign of trouble for US equities and industrial stocks. All eyes now turn to upcoming job reports and inflation readings to fix views on Fed moves in this shifting scene.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a skilled technical analyst and educator based in the US. He brings over 40 years of experience with market charts and price trends. He has written several books and knows the futures and stock markets well.

For ongoing economic news and analysis, visit FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and Market Forecasts.

Disclaimer: This article serves for educational and informational aims. It should not stand as investment advice. Be sure to do your own research and talk with financial experts before taking any action.

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Navigating the Storm: How China’s Rising Youth Unemployment Threatens Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence

China Faces Jobs Crunch as Youth Unemployment Threatens Growth Outlook

By Bob Mason
Published: August 21, 2025, 03:51 GMT

Rising Youth Unemployment Clouds Economic Outlook

China sees a strong rise in youth job loss. Youth unemployment hit 17.8% in July and marked an 11-month peak. The national rate increased slightly to 5.2% in July from 5.0% in June. The young workers suffer hard. This trend may lower trust in spending and risk slowing Beijing’s goal of 5% GDP growth in 2025. ### Labor Market Pressures Amid Economic Uncertainty

New university graduates crowd the job market. Global concerns and US tariffs press the economy. In manufacturing—a key part of China’s work—the pressure grows. The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July from 50.4 in June. Lower new export orders and softer local demand push this drop. High input costs and strong competition make many factories cut jobs, which adds more strain.

Consumer Spending Shows Signs of Slowing

Youth job loss dampens the mood. This change slows household spending. Retail sales grew 3.7% year on year in July, down from 4.8% in June. Government steps aim to boost buying, yet a long slowdown may blunt broader growth. Beijing sees the risk and acts to bring spending up at home.

Beijing’s Policy Response: Stimulus and Stabilization Efforts

Premier Li Qiang met with top economic leaders. He pledged new plans to support the housing scene, boost home spending, and ease job market strain. New firm hiring for young graduates and shifts in labor rules form part of these steps.

Services Sector Provides a Silver Lining

The services field shows strength as making jobs falls in other areas. The S&P Global China General Services PMI rose to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. More hires in this sector point to a shift toward a buying-driven economy. Beijing’s efforts seem to work even as outside challenges persist.

Economic Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic

Experts ask for steady government work to meet growth goals. Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis Asia Pacific says, "China can hit its 2025 growth target if more policy steps come soon, though the latter months may be tough." She sees 5% GDP growth next year, then 4.5% in 2026, while keeping watch over trade issues and weak price pressures.

Stock Markets Rally on Stimulus Hopes and Economic Optimism

Market moves in China show hope. On August 21, the CSI 300 index reached a 10‐month high, and the Shanghai Composite Index touched a 10-year mark. Year-to-date gains were 9.47% for the CSI 300 and 12.9% for the Shanghai Composite. Still, both sit below their past records. The Hang Seng Index rose 25.42% year to date. Leading economist Hao Hong said, "China hits new highs yet retail steps remain low. The market now expects solid policy share and plenty of cash flow." He added that a stock rebound could boost trust at home when other areas face hurdles.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Beijing must work to renew growth and steady the labor market. The next few weeks hold key data on factory profits and the August private sector PMI. Trade talks with the US add more risk. Quick moves in policy that fix youth job loss and housing problems might get the economy back on track. Investors and officials watch new data and news very closely.

For continuous updates on China’s economic policies and markets, visit FXEmpire’s economic calendar and market analysis sections.

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