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Condominium Market Challenges Offer Silver Lining, According to Canada’s Banking Regulator

By Barbara Shecter, Financial Post — September 3, 2025

Toronto – Canada’s urban condominium markets face challenges. The GTA and Vancouver show slowing condo sales and rising inventories. Peter Routledge, head of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), sees hidden benefits in these trends. He links the tough market conditions closely to potential gains for buyers.

At the Scotiabank Financials Summit in Toronto on Wednesday, Routledge focused on the slowdown in sales and increase in new condo inventories. He noted that Toronto lost 75 percent of its condo sales from 2022 to 2025, while Vancouver saw a 37 percent drop. Despite these falls, he stressed that Canada’s banks are still strong and well-capitalized to handle these issues.

Oversupply and Price Adjustments

In the GTA, the market shows a clear oversupply. New condo completions rise quickly. A report from Altus Group Ltd highlights both the oversupply and the steady stream of new builds. This excess pushes down prices and rents during the first half of 2025. Data released in June by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) backs this view. It reports fewer sales, nearly double the inventories, and softer prices across urban Canada. These trends follow a long phase of high prices and a low supply of housing.

A Market Correction Helping Affordability

Routledge sees the slowdown as a chance to improve affordability. He explained that not long ago, many noted the lack of housing units for Canadians. Now, the buildup of condo supply can help young buyers. Prices are falling from their high peaks, which may help first-time buyers enter the market.

This market correction can make owning a home more reachable by easing pressure on prices.

Banking Sector Preparedness and Market Resilience

OSFI has set up strong safeguards to support banks. They have set clear capital requirements and stress-tested mortgages. These steps help banks manage shocks from the real estate sector. Even though risks remain—especially in commercial real estate and slow-selling condo projects—the system stays robust. Routledge reassured that if stability is the focus, the system is doing well.

Letting the Market Find Its Level

Routledge agreed that some condo developments may fall short of investor hopes. Still, he favors market forces over strict regulation. He said, “We have the resilience already. The goal is to let the market decide the price that will bring young Canadians in so they can afford a home.” His words stress that careful letting of supply and demand should set the right prices.

Broader Implications

While a slowing condo market might seem bad at first, it can help balance Canada’s urban housing supply. This shift may ease long-standing affordability issues and open the door for new buyers. The challenge may not spell disaster for everyone but instead point to a more accessible housing market in major cities.


Contact: Barbara Shecter, bshecter@nationalpost.com
Financial Post
Photo credit: Peter J. Thompson / Financial Post


Related Reads:

  • ‘From bad to terrible’: Toronto’s market for new condos has fallen off a cliff
  • Investor mortgages have surged: 12 financing questions for new landlords

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TD Bank Marks Significant Progress in Overhauling Anti-Money Laundering Program

By Naimul Karim, Financial Post | September 3, 2025

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stands as Canada’s second-biggest bank. It reached a major milestone in revamping its anti-money laundering program in the U.S. The bank now fixes past faults that cost it billions in fines and slowed its operations.

A Collaborative Approach to Strengthening AML

Leo Salom leads TD Bank’s U.S. operations. He spoke at the Scotiabank Financials Summit in Toronto about the bank’s progress. TD set up a team of 40 top executives. These experts came from leading banks and law agencies. They include members from Homeland Security and the FBI. This small, skilled group brings solid experience. It shows TD’s will to build a strong and clear compliance system.

A Response to Previous Regulatory Penalties

U.S. regulators took punitive action about a year ago. They fined TD billions and limited its growth. The bank had failed to spot money laundering in its American branches. In response, TD began a clear fix plan to mend the problems and restore trust.

Investment in Advanced Technologies

TD is spending nearly $500 million in 2025 to upgrade its AML system. The bank plans to spend a similar amount in 2026. At the core of this work is new technology. TD recently launched a transaction monitoring platform that spots suspicious activity. It also introduced a new system to rate customer risk. In the last quarter, TD added two machine-learning tools. One tool finds unusual transactions; the other checks negative media alerts. These steps mix smart technology with close monitoring.

Positive Financial Indicators

TD’s AML overhaul comes with strong financial signs. For the quarter ending July 31, 2025, TD earned a net income of $3.3 billion. Last year, the same quarter ended with a $181 million loss due to AML costs. Growth in Canada’s personal and business banking, along with gains in wealth management and insurance, drove the profits. Salom said most key actions to overhaul the program should finish by year-end.

Looking Ahead: Continued Milestones Beyond 2025

Despite the progress, Salom said more milestones lie ahead in 2026 and 2027. The bank aims to build a sustainable and scalable AML system. Its tech upgrades are meant to create a world-class system now and speed up future fixes. This strategy strengthens TD’s long-term management. Global banks now boost their monitoring to stop financial crime. TD plans to protect its name and meet new standards with care.


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Contact:
Naimul Karim
Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

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RBC CEO Dave McKay Identifies Trade Talks as Biggest Economic and Banking Risk in Coming Quarter

Toronto, September 3, 2025 – Dave McKay leads the Royal Bank of Canada. He points to trade talks as the main risk for Canada’s economy and banks. He spoke at the Scotiabank Financials Summit in Toronto. He noted that RBC had strong quarterly results. However, he warned that the talks over the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) add a risk of change. McKay keeps his ideas clear: trade talks now affect banks and growth.

Encouraging Earnings Amid Economic Uncertainty

Canada’s Big Six banks share good earnings. These gains show that Canada might grow again. RBC’s quarterly numbers, ending July 31, show clear stability. McKay said trade talks with the United States will largely shape Canada’s future. He said, “There’s a source of potential volatility going forward.” He meant that the talks over CUSMA might lead to change. Even though he is hopeful, McKay notes a risk. The trade deal once helped shield the economy from U.S. tariffs. Changes in that deal can shift client demand and affect growth.

Economic Contraction and Policy Implications

Canada’s economy shrank by 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2025. Statistics Canada shows that the drop came from low exports. U.S. tariffs caused a sharper fall than many had predicted. This drop matched the Bank of Canada’s July forecast. We now see more talk of a possible interest rate cut. Desjardins economist Royce Mendes said rates might drop after three meetings held at 2.75 percent.

Continued Uncertainty in Trade Policy

Darryl White leads Bank of Montreal. He shared a view like McKay. He said that trade uncertainty remains. He noted that Canada shows some signs of growth. But he warned that Canada still trails the United States. White said, “There isn’t a full understanding yet of whether we are going to preserve CUSMA.” He sees a good story for business but notes a pause in trade action. He expects Canada’s growth to rise when trade fixes settle.

Financial System Resilience

Peter Routledge heads the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. He stated that Canada’s financial system stands ready. He said the system will help Canada face global change. His words showed strength in a time of uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

Canada faces hard choices as trade talks and global headwinds press on. The banks and leaders stay alert. They watch economic signs and trade news closely. The future of the CUSMA talks matters a great deal.


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Canada’s Big Six Banks Thriving Amid Trade Uncertainty, But Executives Remain Wary

By Naimul Karim | August 29, 2025

Canada’s major banks posted record profits this quarter. They show strong business conditions despite tense trade with the United States. Top executives hold back on celebrations. They worry about economic clouds ahead.

Strong Earnings Reflect Economic Resilience

Five of Canada’s largest banks beat analyst predictions. Major firms like the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) reached record profits. Rising revenues and fewer loan risks drove these results. The gains mark a strong economy even during a U.S. trade war.

Bank leaders, however, stay cautious. They see hope in rising non-essential consumer spending and a lower overall uncertainty than earlier in the year. Yet, they stress that the fragile Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) remains very important.

Trade Agreement Critical to Stability

CUSMA acts as a shield from harsh American tariffs. The deal soon faces new talks. RBC CEO Dave McKay said, “If most CUSMA goods stay exempt, Canada will have low tariffs and the economy can stay steady.” McKay warned of risks if trade talks fail. He stressed dangers like falling consumer confidence, squeezing company profits, rising inflation, and weaker job markets. Such risks add uncertainty to monetary policy and capital flows.

Modest Growth Continues Amid Challenges

Darryl White, CEO of Bank of Montreal (BMO), said the Canadian economy is in its middle innings. Growth is moderate. “The economy moves at the pace we expect,” White said. “It is not too strong and is not in recession. Some areas slow down naturally.” This steady growth explains why banks show healthy loan activity despite risks.

Borrowers Front-Run Economic Conditions

Maria-Gabriella Khoury, Fitch’s senior director for North American banks, noted many borrowers seek credit early. They expect tougher times ahead. “They line up credit while the economy is stable, not waiting for a toll from tariffs,” she said. Both consumer and commercial loans rose more than expected. This suggests customers act before challenges hit. Still, Khoury warned that this optimism might last only one quarter as tariff talks progress.

Loan Growth Restrained, but Margins Improving

Analyst Shalabh Garg from Veritas Investment Research said bank loan growth stayed in the low single digits. Slower loan growth fits the modest pace of the overall economy. With deposits growing faster than loans, banks cut funding costs and widened net interest margins. Banks also set aside fewer funds for bad loans. Broadly stable unemployment rates further support this improved performance.

Outlook Remains Cautious

Canada’s largest banks continue to succeed in a changing landscape. Yet, executives remain careful. Ongoing U.S. trade policies and the potential for CUSMA renegotiation add risk. For now, leaders avoid premature celebrations.

As Canada faces these challenges, the banking sector’s performance stays a key signal of the country’s overall economic health.


Photo credit: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Lahodynskyj

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TD Bank’s Strong Canadian Operations Drive Third-Quarter Profit Beat

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) reported strong third‐quarter results. It surprised analysts with high profits. The bank’s Canadian operations powered gains in personal banking, commercial banking, wealth management, and insurance. TD earned a net income of $3.3 billion in the three months ending July 31. This net income marks a swing from a $181 million loss in the same period last year.

Financial Highlights Exceed Expectations

TD’s earnings per share hit $1.89. This number shows a fast recovery after last year’s loss. Last year’s loss came from heavy cost provisions for anti‐money laundering (AML) issues. When non‐recurring items drop, TD’s net income climbs to $3.9 billion. Last year, it had reached $3.65 billion. The bank adjusted its earnings per share to $2.20, which tops the analyst forecast near $2.05. Chief Executive Raymond Chun said strong client activity and steady, disciplined work drove the profit. He stressed that TD now builds on its success. “We are well-positioned to compete, grow, and build our bank for the future,” Chun said.

Progress on AML Remediation and Operational Improvements

TD has worked hard over the past year to fix its AML controls. Regulators in the U.S. had imposed fines and restrictions on TD’s U.S. operations. Leo Salom, head of TD’s U.S. segment, said key management fixes will finish by the end of 2025. He listed clear steps like policy updates, process changes, and system upgrades. These changes support an effective AML program.

Some work will take place into 2026 and 2027. After management tasks end, the bank will audit all its programs. U.S. regulators will check that TD meets AML rules over a sustainability period. “Our priority is to build a very strong AML program as quickly and comprehensively as possible,” Salom said.

Industry Context and Economic Outlook

Bank earnings now show the health of the economy. TD and other major Canadian banks—Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, and Royal Bank of Canada—beat market expectations. National Bank of Canada came in a bit short.

Analysts watch provisions for credit losses (PCLs) to judge the strength of lenders’ loan portfolios. PCLs are reserves for unexpected loan defaults. TD’s PCLs fell to $971 million in the third quarter, down from roughly $1 billion a year ago. Chun noted that tariffs bring uncertainty, especially in certain sectors. He added that both the Canadian and U.S. economies have stayed strong. “It is still early days, and it will likely be a long road before the full impact of tariffs is well understood,” he said.

Looking Ahead

TD’s quarterly results show how the bank can adapt and strengthen core operations. It manages regulatory hurdles and economic challenges while growing. With ongoing AML improvements and strong Canadian business, TD is set on a path for sustained profit and growth.


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CIBC Reports Strong Q3 Performance with Double-Digit Profit Growth Across All Segments

By Naimul Karim | Published August 28, 2025

Toronto, ON – CIBC showed solid results in Q3 ending July 31, 2025. The bank earned profit gains with two-digit increases in all segments. These gains came sooner than analysts expected.

CIBC made a net income of $2.1 billion. This result marked a 17% gain from $1.8 billion last year. The bank earned $2.15 per share in net earnings. This amount beat earlier forecasts. The adjusted net income, which removes unusual items, also reached $2.1 billion (up from $1.9 billion). The adjusted earnings per share came to $2.16, topping the consensus of about $2.01. Strong Performance Across All Business Units

Each business unit helped the bank earn more. The personal and business banking unit earned $812 million. This unit showed a 17% rise in net income from a year ago. The commercial and wealth management unit earned $598 million and grew by 19%.

The capital markets unit had the highest increase. It reached $540 million in net income. This sum was $251 million more than last year and marked an 87% increase. Trading and investment banking drove this improvement.

“Our client focus and execution mindset has led to a clean quarter with strong results in every unit,” said CEO Victor Dodig during the earnings call. Dodig has led the bank for ten years and plans to retire in November. He stressed that the bank stays strong even when the economy changes. “We are resilient and ready for economic shifts,” he said.

Maintaining Quality Earnings Amid Credit Uncertainty

Many banks face economic challenges from global trade tensions and changing interest rates. CIBC managed these challenges with careful credit loss control. The bank set aside $559 million in credit loss provisions. This amount went up by $76 million from last year, yet it matched expectations.

John Aiken of Jefferies Inc. said, “CIBC’s earnings quality is high because the bank’s credit loss declines are less than its peers’.” His words show that the bank keeps its loans safe and trusts that borrowers will meet their obligations.

Industry Context and Outlook

CIBC reported strong numbers as many large Canadian lenders released their quarterly results. Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Royal Bank of Canada did well too, though National Bank of Canada had softer figures. Leaders in the banking industry now see clearer signs of Canada’s economic future. Still, some issues remain.

Dodig mentioned that global trade tensions might slow growth and push up inflation in countries like Canada and the United States. Yet, he felt that lower interest rates and focused fiscal policies would help the economy grow.

Share Buyback Program Announced

CIBC also plans to buy back up to 20 million common shares. This move awaits regulatory approval. The share buyback shows the bank’s strong financial position and its commitment to return value to shareholders.

Conclusion

CIBC’s Q3 results show double-digit profit growth in every segment and careful credit management. These factors place the bank in a strong position, even with economic uncertainty. As CEO Victor Dodig prepares to leave later this year, the results also reflect a decade of steady, clear leadership.


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Royal Bank of Canada Exceeds Expectations Amid Economic Uncertainty

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the country’s largest bank, reported strong third-quarter earnings. They beat forecasts and showed strength in every division. RBC released the results on Wednesday for the period ending July 31. The bank proved its skill by performing well when trade tensions and market swings challenged the economy.

Strong Financial Performance

RBC earned a net income of $5.4 billion this quarter—a 21 percent rise from last year. The bank made $3.75 per share, which went beyond many forecasts. When one-time items were removed, net income reached $5.5 billion, rising 17 percent year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.84, well above the expected $3.32. These strong results came from busy client activity and an economy that handled tariffs better than expected. CEO Dave McKay said RBC captured more client flows across all sectors. In each case, the bank matched client needs with its strengths.

Cautious Outlook Amid Trade Tensions

CEO McKay stayed cautious about what lies ahead. He noted that trade issues and the talks over the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) add pressure. McKay stressed that keeping tariff exemptions for CUSMA goods is key to low tariffs and steady growth.

He warned that long trade disputes could lower consumer confidence, shrink company profits, push up inflation, and soften labour markets in Canada and the U.S. This mix might change monetary policy and affect capital flows. For now, RBC prefers to watch trade talks in the fourth quarter rather than change its full-year guidance.

Loan Provisions Reflect Economic Realities

Analysts paid close attention to RBC’s credit loss provisions (PCLs). For the third quarter, RBC set aside $881 million in PCLs. That amount is lower than the previous quarter’s $1.4 billion but higher than last year’s $659 million. The rise came mainly from higher reserves in capital, commercial, and personal banking, even as wealth management helped reduce it.

Overall, RBC’s PCLs were below the roughly $1 billion that analysts had expected. Still, provisions for impaired loans—those more likely to default—increased by 47 percent, or $290 million, compared to last year. This increase shows that the bank is careful as credit risks change.

Industry Context and Broader Economic Signals

RBC is the third among Canada’s Big Six banks to report earnings this season. The Bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia reported similar strong earnings and lower PCLs. These results hint that Canada’s economy may be finding its footing even with ongoing uncertainty.

Bank earnings and loan loss provisions are key signals. They help show the state of consumer and business finances in the country.

Conclusion

Royal Bank of Canada shows strength in every area, even while facing trade talks and inflation. Its solid earnings and controlled loan loss figures bring hope to investors. Yet, management remains cautious. Trade negotiations, especially around CUSMA, play a big role in shaping Canada’s future and RBC’s own path.

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Royal Bank of Canada Surpasses Analysts’ Expectations Despite Higher Loan Loss Provisions

By Naimul Karim | Published August 27, 2025

The RBC earned strong results in the third quarter ending July 31, 2025. They grew profit in key areas while setting aside more funds for possible loan losses. Each word here links directly to the next, making the message clear and easy to follow.

Robust Earnings Growth

RBC made a net income of $5.4 billion this quarter. This income is 21% higher than the same time last year. The earnings per share came in at $3.75. When the bank took out one-time costs, the adjusted net income was $5.5 billion. That figure is up 17% year-over-year. The adjusted earnings per share reached $3.84. Analysts had expected about $3.32 per share.

The CEO, Dave McKay, said the bank showed strong growth in every area. He pointed to RBC’s diverse business plan and careful strategy as key reasons for the good results. Each idea is linked closely and builds on the last.

Loan Loss Provisions Under Close Watch

Even with strong profits, RBC raised its funds for possible loan losses, known as provisions for credit losses (PCLs). The bank set aside $881 million this quarter. Although this sum is much lower than last quarter’s $1.4 billion, it is more than the $659 million from a year ago. Increases came mainly from capital markets, commercial, and personal banking. Some funds were released from the wealth management division.

Analyst Matthew Lee from Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. predicted about $1 billion in provisions for the quarter. Yet, RBC’s PCLs stayed under many forecasts. The funds for loans that may default grew by 47% year-over-year, an increase of $290 million. Every number and link shows clear, short connections that help the reader understand.

Positive Segment Performances

The personal banking unit earned $1.9 billion, rising from $1.5 billion the previous year. The capital markets section also improved. Its net income grew from $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. Each result connects simply with the next fact for clarity.

Context Within Canadian Banking Sector

RBC is the third of Canada’s “Big Six” banks to share quarterly results this week. The Bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia have also shown good earnings with lower loan loss provisions. Their results are important for the economy. Investors and experts now watch the banks’ PCLs as a sign of Canada’s economic health. Each bank’s story builds on another, using short, clear phrases.

Looking Ahead

As RBC builds its capital buffers and shows strong earnings, it proves both strength and care in hard times. Investors will keep an eye on the PCL numbers as a key sign of loan health and broader economic trends. Each fact supports the next, and every idea stays close together for easy reading.


For more detailed insights and continuous updates on RBC’s financial performance and Canada’s economic trends, subscribers can access full articles and expert analysis through Financial Post’s platform.

Contact: nkarim@postmedia.com

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Scotiabank and BMO See Signs of Economic Recovery Amid Cautious Optimism

By Naimul Karim | August 26, 2025

Scotiabank and BMO reported stronger third‐quarter earnings. Canadian banks share their news. Executives note that profits improve as economic data turns positive. They lower the measure of risk. Tariffs and U.S. trade still worry many. Yet, like green shoots, early recovery signs emerge.

Declining Uncertainty Sparks Confidence

BMO’s CEO Darryl White explained the change during an analyst call. He noted: earlier, his uncertainty was very high. Today, he sees less risk. Political issues and leadership doubt once clouded growth. Now, clarity improves. Some issues—geopolitics and a missing U.S. trade deal—remain. However, White links confidence to the fall in risk.

Economic Performance in the ‘Middle Innings’

White places the economy in its middle innings. He states that growth is modest and steady. The pace is as expected. The system does not run strong nor does it risk recession. Some sectors slow naturally during this phase.

Scotiabank Spotlights Consumer Spending Recovery

Scotiabank’s Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas shows signs in consumer spending. Credit card data highlights green shoots. Thomas sees growth in retail sales during the second quarter. Challenges still hit younger consumers. Yet, the mixed data builds cautious hope for consumer strength.

Strong Earnings and Improved Credit Metrics

Both banks beat analyst expectations. BMO’s net income rose to $2.33 billion from $1.86 billion year-over-year. Earnings per share reached $3.14. Adjusted net income also improved. Scotiabank reported higher banking profits. It cut its credit loss provisions. BMO lowered total provisions from $906 million to $797 million. Scotiabank cut its provisions near a billion dollars—a $357 million drop from the previous quarter. Thomas admits that challenges persist. He links ongoing trade and macro concerns to a clouded near-term view.

Looking Ahead

BMO and Scotiabank lead the pack among the Big Six banks. Their results serve as a gauge of Canada’s economy. Tariff issues and pending U.S. trade details still weigh in. Nevertheless, rising consumer spending and stronger credit metrics hint at a wider recovery. For now, the banks expect steady, modest growth that varies by sector. Optimism remains cautious as leaders balance good data with remaining risk.

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Scotiabank Surpasses Analysts’ Expectations with Strong Q3 Earnings

August 26, 2025 | By Naimul Karim

Scotiabank (Bank of Nova Scotia) posted strong financial numbers for the third quarter ending July 31, 2025. The bank beat analyst predictions by raising profits in its global banking and markets divisions. The report shows revenue growth even as economic risks continue, especially from tariffs that affect Canadian trade.

Strong Net Income and Earnings Per Share

Scotiabank earned $2.53 billion. Last year in the same quarter, the number was $1.9 billion. This change gave a net earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84. When unusual items are removed, net income was $2.52 billion. That means adjusted EPS came to $1.88 per share. These figures beat the analyst estimate of about $1.73. CEO Scott Thomson praised the results. He tied the “very strong quarter” to rising revenue in all parts of the bank.

Decrease in Provisions for Credit Losses

Investors watch provisions for credit losses (PCLs) because they signal potential loan defaults and economic issues. In this quarter, total PCLs dropped to about $1 billion. This is $11 million less than Q3 last year and $357 million less than Q2 2025. PCLs for high-risk loans fell to $975 million in Q3 from $1.05 billion in the previous quarter. This drop mainly came from lower figures in the Canadian retail and corporate loan areas.

Segment Performance and Dividend Increase

The international banking division reported adjusted earnings of $716 million, a 7% rise over last year. In contrast, Canadian banking earnings fell 2% to $959 million compared to the previous year. Yet, they improved 56% from the prior quarter.

With its strong financial show, Scotiabank raised its quarterly dividend to $1.10 per share, up from $1.06. ### Market Context

Scotiabank is one of Canada’s Big Six banks and shows the health of the national economy. The Q3 results come at a time when trade tensions worry Canadian businesses. Analysts study the bank’s credit loss provisions to see if households and companies face stress.

Looking Ahead

The better-than-expected profits and improved credit outlook show that the bank stays strong at its core. Investors will keep an eye on global economic factors, like trade and overall trends, that may affect Scotiabank in the coming quarters.


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Contact:
Naimul Karim
Email: nkarim@postmedia.com


This article is based on reporting by Financial Post and is authorized for publication with credit.

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