Tag Archive for: financial planning

Holiday Shopping Prices Poised to Rise: The Impact of Tariffs on Consumer Costs

Tariffs Likely to Influence Consumer Prices as Holiday Shopping Season Begins

During the holiday season, shoppers see tariffs in the prices they pay. Tariffs that stayed low during 2025 now weigh on costs. Experts note a stronger price change as retail work grows.

Background on Tariffs and Inflation

Tariffs began in April 2025 under the Trump administration. Countries send many goods that carry these tariffs. Inflation mostly stayed between 2.5% and 3% for the year. At first, tariffs did not move prices much.

Firms built up their inventory before tariffs struck. They took on more costs by keeping slimmer profits. Soon, as these stocks drop, companies pass more costs to buyers.

Tariffs’ Role in Inflation Measures

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave shows tariffs push consumer prices higher. Tariffs add about 0.5 percentage points to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. In September 2025, the core PCE reached 2.9% with tariffs, and about 2.4% without them.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees rising inflation as the bank makes plans around its 2% goal, set aside from food and energy.

Impact on Consumers and Retail Prices

Tariffs add real costs for buyers. Consumers shoulder 50% to 70% of these extra charges. Clothing prices jumped 0.7% in September 2025. Other items such as coffee, furniture, and fake Christmas trees cost more as well. Price moves on basic items like eggs or holiday décor change how buyers view inflation.

Holiday Season and Consumer Spending

Tariffs may hit the holiday season hard. LendingTree data shows that if tariffs had applied in the 2024 season, total spending would have increased by $40.6 billion. On average, each shopper would pay about $132 more. Around 70.5% of tariff costs hit buyers directly.

This extra charge may push many shoppers to use credit cards or get personal loans. More households face higher debt during a busy time of year.

Federal Reserve Outlook and Policy Implications

The Fed keeps a close watch on inflation. Some regional officials do not agree with recent moves to lower interest rates because inflation stays above the target. Tariffs add to this ongoing inflation, which makes the Fed’s task of balancing growth and stable prices more complex.

In summary, tariffs have played a small role in price changes so far. As holiday shoppers start buying, the impact grows. Rising prices on everyday items add up, shaping how consumers spend and view the economy as 2026 begins.

For both shoppers and businesses, watching how tariffs affect costs is important as the holiday season nears.

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Unraveling the Debt Web: How Soaring Government Deficits Could Ignite the Next Financial Crisis

How Soaring Government Debt Could Play a Starring Role in the Next Great Financial Crisis

By Barbara Shecter | Published October 27, 2025

Governments now face huge debts. They see deficits that risk global economic calm. Experts now warn that the U.S.—the world’s main engine—could spark or worsen the next major crisis because of its growing red ink.

The Growing Wall of Debt

Since the COVID-19 crisis, U.S. debt has shot up. It now reaches about US$37 trillion. Each year, a deficit of nearly US$1.8 trillion adds up. This figure is about 6% of GDP. Spending cuts have not slowed this rise. Deep political divides and a missing fiscal plan make debt cuts hard.

In April 2025, debt caught public attention. President Donald Trump put double-digit tariffs on over 80 countries on “Liberation Day.” At first, investors ran from stocks. They chose safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. Soon, however, this flight ended.

Rising Yields and Investor Anxiety

Bond prices then dropped. Yields climbed. Investors now ask for higher returns as risk grows. Ten-year Treasury yields hit 4.5%, up from 3.9%. Meanwhile, 30-year yields moved past 5%. This jump alarmed many economists.

Mark Manger, director of the Global Economic Policy Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School, has studied debt crises in Argentina and Nigeria. He sees this rise as strange in the market known for safety. “It is the part where observers are starting to freak out,” he said. His words show that investors now worry that rising yields harm the famed U.S. Treasury bond.

Higher yields also mean that paying back debt may hurt the economy. The U.S. Treasury market, a key part of global finance, may no longer seem the safest spot.

Potential Global Fallout

This warning goes far beyond the U.S. U.S. Treasuries and similar bonds sit at the heart of debt markets. Many banks, pension funds, and central banks hold them. A drop in their value might shake global finance.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, an economics professor at Western University, studies sovereign debt. He explained that U.S. Treasuries work as collateral in repo deals. These deals help banks keep cash flowing overnight. If their value falls, liquidity in the system will suffer.

Foreign governments also hold these bonds. A drop in value would hurt their reserves and worsen economic shocks. In our connected system, one bad sign may start a global chain reaction.

The Looming Crisis?

A February 2025 study by the Brookings Institution said that a full U.S. default is not needed to cause a crisis. The fear of a strategic default or poor fiscal management alone might shake faith in U.S. debt. This loss of trust lowers asset values, weakens banks, and may spark a worldwide recession.

Reports from the Financial Post note that the debt crisis is not only in Washington. From Canada to the U.K. and Japan, high debts unsettle markets. Yet, the U.S. holds a special weight on the world scene. Its fiscal health can shift global economics.

What Lies Ahead?

With Canada’s Federal Budget on November 4th and similar events around the globe, all eyes are on governments. Political gridlock, high debt, and fears over safe assets put policymakers to the test.

For now, soaring U.S. government debt darkens the future of financial stability. The coming financial crisis may depend on how well the U.S.—the largest economy—manages its fiscal path and how investors see these moves.

For continued in-depth analysis on government debt and its global implications, visit FinancialPost.com and stay tuned for daily updates throughout the fiscal season.

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ECB Holds Steady: Interest Rates Unchanged as Euro Zone Economy Shows Resilience Amid Uncertainty

European Central Bank Holds Rates Steady Amid Signs of Economic Resilience

October 30, 2025 – The European Central Bank has decided to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting. It holds the deposit facility rate at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Recent data show that the euro zone economy stands firm while facing global doubts.

ECB’s Rate Decision and Economic Context

The ECB kept the rate steady after a series of cuts earlier this year. Last June, the rate fell from a 2024 peak of 4%. That June cut came as inflation settled near the 2% medium-term goal. In its statement, the bank said, "Inflation stays near 2% and the outlook stays the same." The statement shows that the ECB sees current inflation as manageable and does not need to change rates now.

Growth and Inflation Indicators

Preliminary figures for the third quarter show 0.2% growth in the euro zone economy. This small gain beats some expectations. The slow rise in activity shows that the economy stays strong even with trade issues and other pressures.

In September, euro zone inflation edged up to 2.2% from 2.0% in August. Higher service prices, such as in tourism and digital areas, drove this rise. Meanwhile, high tariffs, uncertainty, and a strong euro keep manufacturing slow.

ECB Officials Highlight a Nuanced Outlook

ECB President Lagarde explained that internal and external demand follow different paths. She noted that rising incomes help consumer spending. At the same time, trade challenges and tariffs continue to weigh on manufacturing.

Martin Kocher, a member of the Governing Council, said Europe stays in a good place if no major changes occur. He added that the time for cutting rates is nearly over.

François Villeroy de Galhau, another Council member, called for careful steps in rate management. He pointed out that current conditions are good, yet things remain flexible.

Market Response and Expert Commentary

After the ECB announcement, the euro lost some early gains. It traded a bit lower against the U.S. dollar at $1.1571. Analysts were not surprised because inflation appears stable.

Mike Coop, Chief Investment Officer at Morningstar Wealth, described the move as dull but fitting. He felt the step fits with inflation returning to a well-controlled level. He also noted that Europe faces challenges such as shifting away from cheap energy, tougher trade with the U.S., higher defense costs, and fewer investments compared with the U.S.

Data-Dependent Approach Moving Forward

The ECB will decide on future steps by looking at new data at each meeting. Many experts expect that rates will stay on hold through 2025. Most see no change until the end of 2026. For now, the bank will hold steady until new facts call for action.

Key Takeaways:

  • ECB holds the key deposit rate at 2% for the third meeting in a row.
  • Euro zone growth reached 0.2% in Q3.
  • Inflation in the euro zone edged up to 2.2% in September, led by higher service costs.
  • The ECB shows economic strength amid global uncertainty.
  • ECB officials hint that the period of cutting rates is nearly over.
  • The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the news.
  • The ECB will decide on future steps by examining new data.

As the euro area faces challenges in energy change and trade shifts, the ECB’s steady stance supports growth while keeping inflation near target levels.

Reporting by CNBC, with contributions from Tasmin Lockwood and Leonie Kidd. For more updates on global financial markets and the latest from central banks, stay tuned.

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Trump’s Game-Changing Agreement with China: Fentanyl Tariffs Cut and Rare Earths Deal Secured

Trump Announces Major Trade and Security Agreement with China Following Historic Meeting

October 30, 2025 — Busan, South Korea

The two largest economies move closer as President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States signed a new one-year deal with China. The U.S. and China agreed on a pact to secure rare earth elements and key minerals. This news came right after a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea.

Key Highlights from the Announcement

  • Rare Earths Deal: Trump said the pact will keep rare earth minerals steady for tech and manufacturing. He calls it a one-year plan that may renew and change with each cycle.

  • Fentanyl Tariff Reduction: Trump said tariffs on fentanyl-linked imports from China will drop from 57% to 47%. The move works to stop the illegal spread of fentanyl, a strong synthetic drug linked to the U.S. overdose problem.

  • Agricultural Trade Resumption: China agreed to buy more American farm products such as soybeans. This step seeks to mend recent trade tensions.

  • Upcoming Visits: Trump said he will go to China in April 2026. Later, President Xi will come to the United States. The trips are set to boost further ties in trade and security.

The Meeting and Its Broader Context

The leaders met for 1 hour and 40 minutes. This was their first face-to-face talk in six years. Before they began, both leaders exchanged kind words. Trump called Xi an "old friend" with a strong bond. Xi noted that China’s growth plans would not clash with Trump’s goal to make America strong again.

These talks come as tensions rose during 2025. Beijing tightened export rules while Washington warned about stopping certain tech exports to China. They discussed topics like:

  • Tariffs and trade limits
  • Fentanyl import rules
  • Rare earth minerals and supply chains
  • Tech safety and TikTok’s ties to ByteDance

Signs of a Thawing Relationship

Even though many doubted change, Beijing bought U.S. soybeans. This act shows a sign of better ties. The new rare earth deal, the drop in fentanyl tariffs, and the restart of farm trade hint at a less rocky U.S.-China bond. Trump called the meeting “amazing” and said many plans were set, showing hope for more joint work.

Looking Ahead

The pact may shift global markets, tech fields, and security rules because rare earths matter in gadgets and defense. The lower tariffs on fentanyl-linked imports show a careful plan to fix hard shared issues in trade and public health.

With trips planned next year, Washington and Beijing show a clear wish to calm and balance their economic and security ties.

This is a developing story; updates will follow as more information becomes available.

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Trump and Xi Converge in Busan: A Crucial Meeting to Resolve Trade Tensions

Trump and Xi Arrive in Busan for Pivotal Trade Talks

Busan, South Korea — On October 30, 2025, President Trump and President Xi landed in Busan. They had not met face-to-face since Trump began his second term in January. Global markets and policy teams now wait as the two leaders meet. Their talks will focus on trade issues and tariffs. Two major economies show tension in these issues.

Arrival and Context of the Meeting

At Gimhae Air Base in Busan, officials greeted Trump and Xi with warm smiles. The leaders posed for a photo before their talks began at 11 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET Wednesday). This meeting happens as Xi visits South Korea. It is his first visit in 11 years, and he also attends the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in nearby Gyeongju from Thursday to Saturday.

Trade Tensions at a Boiling Point

This meeting comes during a tough economic year. Beijing set new export controls. The U.S. warned it might ban some software exports to China. These moves add to the trade war problems between the two nations.

In recent days, the U.S. shared three goals for the talks:

  • Cut the flow of fentanyl into the United States
  • Split TikTok from its Beijing-based parent, ByteDance
  • Redefine terms for tariffs, technology exports, and rare earth mineral trades

Reuters said that China bought its first shipments of U.S. soybeans in months. This move may show a softer stance before the talks.

Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment

Investors feel cautious yet hopeful. Markets saw a rise at the start of the week in anticipation of change. The trade war has made markets nervous for months. News from Busan may send waves across global markets.

Outlook

Beijing remains careful about the chance of an agreement. The meeting now stands as a chance to fix key trade issues. The topics on the agenda may shift global ties for years.

The world now watches. The results of Busan might shape economic and diplomatic bonds for a long time. Stay tuned for live updates on this major summit.

Reporting by Evelyn Cheng and Anniek Bao, CNBC
Photo Credit: Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

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Major Banks Follow Bank of Canada: Prime Rate Cuts Make Borrowing Cheaper!

Canadian Banks Lower Prime Rates Following Bank of Canada’s Cut

October 29, 2025 – The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate. Canadian banks then lowered their prime lending rates by 25 basis points. On October 30, the prime rate drops from 4.70% to 4.45%.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.25%. It did this to boost economic activity. Major banks acted quickly. Royal Bank of Canada, TD Canada Trust, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Desjardins Group, Laurentian Bank of Canada, and Bank of Nova Scotia all changed their rates.

The prime rate is a key benchmark. It guides lending on lines of credit, variable-rate mortgages, and loans. Lowering the prime rate cuts borrowing costs. Consumers and businesses then spend and invest more.

This move is part of a wider monetary plan. The plan works to control inflation and aid growth. Cutting prime rates helps lower borrowing costs for households and companies.

Financial experts say borrowers should note these changes. Lower prime rates can reduce interest on variable-rate debts. They also create better conditions for new loans.

For more detailed coverage and updates on economic and financial news, subscriptions to the Financial Post offer extensive access to such content.

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Saudi Arabia’s Bold Economic Transformation: Embracing Technology, AI, and Tourism Beyond Oil

Saudi Arabia Shifts Economic Priorities: From NEOM to Technology and Tourism

Riyadh, October 29, 2025 – Saudi Arabia ran a nearly ten-year plan called Vision 2030 to move away from oil. Now it shows a new focus on tech, AI, and tourism. This change points to a new national aim.

Moving from Big Projects to New Ideas

When Saudi Arabia introduced Vision 2030 in the mid-2010s, it backed huge projects like NEOM. NEOM planned a car-free city, with The Line as its key part. NEOM was to cost about $1.5 trillion; The Line stood near $500 billion. Mine projects linked funds with hope and a fresh urban plan.

Faisal Alibrahim, the Economy Minister, said on CNBC at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, “We are reordering our focus to help the parts that need it the most; today, it is tech and AI.” He added that new growth will come from work, tech, new ideas, and AI.

Alibrahim pointed out that if plans do not work as well, one must change them. Change starts when the results slow.

Tourism Grows Faster

Tech now wins more space, but tourism grows faster. The kingdom sees strong gains in travel and culture. It reached targets early. Now, the plan is to host 150 million visitors by the end of the decade. This fact shows that other parts of the economy speed up.

Travel, festivals, and sports add to the non-oil economy. Today, they make up 56% of the GDP, Alibrahim said. He called non-oil growth “the main force of the economy” and a way to cut the risks found in oil.

Balancing New Steps

The money view stays good. Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry sees the 2026 budget gap at 3.3% of GDP and expects 4.6% economic growth next year, helped by work outside oil. Minister Alibrahim now expects a 5.1% growth rate for 2025. Finance Minister Mohammed Aljadaan said the kingdom’s debt is low. He noted that a 32% public debt-to-GDP ratio stays safe and is backed by strong reserves.

Even when oil prices change and budgets feel pressure, Riyadh keeps spending to meet social and economic goals that match Vision 2030.

NEOM in a New Role

Saudi Arabia still puts funds into NEOM. It now cuts costs and moves with a quicker pace. Oliver Wyman partner Abdulelah Albarrak said, “Big projects change lives, but new tech such as AI needs clear focus.” He urged the kingdom to stay ready for change.

Saudi Arabia: A New Place for Opportunity

Alibrahim said, “People now come to Saudi not to collect cash, but to earn money. We are not just a money source; we are now a base of real job chances. We are simply opening new ways.”

As Saudi Arabia takes on AI and tech while tourism grows, it stands in the heart of new ideas in the region. The kingdom aims to run on hard work and grow for the future.

Stay informed with CNBC for the latest on Saudi Arabia’s new economic path and Vision 2030 plans.

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Trump’s Strategic Push: Countering China’s Dominance in Rare Earths Through Multi-Nation Deals

Trump’s Rare Earth Deals Target China’s Dominance — Why Change Won’t Come Soon

Published: October 29, 2025

President Donald Trump acts to break China’s strong hold on rare earth minerals. He signs supply deals with Australia, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Japan. The U.S. seeks more paths for rare earth supply. New deals help secure links to important minerals needed for batteries, cars, defense systems, and computer chips.

The Stakes Behind the Deals

China now holds about:

  • 69% of rare earth mining,
  • 92% of refining, and
  • 98% of magnet production globally,

according to Goldman Sachs. China uses its power to shape prices and supplies by setting export rules.

Trump’s new agreements involve billions of dollars. They require fair trade and promise no export bans or quotas. The pact with Japan secures raw and processed minerals. It also sets funds to start some projects in six months.

Challenges Ahead: Why Change Will Take Time

Analysts note that these deals lay the first stone. Yet, change will cost years. New mines outside China take about ten years to build. New refining facilities may need five years. Dennis Wilder, at Georgetown University, states:

"In the medium term, we will get off the Chinese supply chain, but in the short term, there’s still a great deal of dependency on China."

Some reserves outside Myanmar and China are few. This fact makes quick change hard.

Strategic Benefits and Economic Impacts

Experts point to several benefits:

  • Stabilizing global rare earth prices,
  • Cutting U.S. reliance on Chinese export rules,
  • Driving new ideas for domestic refining and recycling, and
  • Creating fair play for U.S. companies against foreign rivals.

Brodie Sutherland, CEO of Patriot Critical Minerals Corp, calls the deals a “game-changer.” He says that a steady supply from nations that share our values may lead to mining and processing that is both efficient and fair.

Some experts warn of tradeoffs for the environment. In China, lower eco-standards kept costs low. New practices may raise costs. Patrick Schröder from Chatham House says:

"Consumers may need to accept higher prices for electronics and green technologies that reflect their true material and environmental cost."

Market Reactions and Political Context

U.S. rare earth mining companies see gains. For example, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals have more than quadrupled in value this year, and Energy Fuels has tripled.

Observers think that Trump sped up these deals to boost his position before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The two leaders plan talks on issues like China’s export rules, U.S. tariffs, and tech limits.

Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society Policy Institute remarks:

"Beijing’s export control threats have pushed more countries to side with Washington on mineral security."

Dennis Wilder adds that China’s broad export limits were meant as a strong tool against the U.S. but now unite others against Beijing:

"It was a useful tool when aimed at the U.S., but it loses strength when used against many nations."

Looking Forward

The rare earth supply deals mark a key step to cut global ties with China. However, they start a long and tough task. Building mines and refineries, weighing costs against the environment, and managing ties among countries will shape the future of rare earth supply.

For those who watch the market, these changes show that rare earth minerals now play a key part in global plans and might affect technology, defense, and energy in the coming years.

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Trump Eyes Lower Fentanyl Tariffs Ahead of Key Meeting with Xi Jinping

Trump Indicates a Cut in Tariffs on Fentanyl Imports from China Before Meeting with Xi Jinping

October 28, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl imports from China. He set this idea before he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. This move shows a strong step in U.S.-China trade and security talks.

Talks on Fentanyl and Farm Issues

On Air Force One, Trump spoke to reporters. He stressed that fentanyl entering the U.S. and matters of American farmers would be the main topics in his Thursday meeting with Xi. Many in the U.S. worry over the rise of fentanyl and its parts coming from China.

Trump said:

"We are going to discuss fentanyl flows into the U.S. and our farmers. These will be important parts of the conversation."

Here, he shows a strategy to fight drug health problems and to back the farming community. This step may help fix ties between the two nations.

Tariff Cut as Part of a Trade Deal

A report in the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. might cut the present 20% tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese exports by 50%. In return, China would act to stop chemicals used in making fentanyl from leaving the country.

When asked about a one-year break in China’s controls on rare earth exports to gain more U.S. trade moves, Trump said:

"We haven’t talked about the timing yet but we are gonna work out something."

This answer shows that talks are still in progress about trade limits and supply issues that matter to both sides.

Improving U.S.-China Ties

Trump said his relations with China are “very good” and he looked forward to his meeting with Xi Jinping:

"We are going to have a great meeting with China’s Xi."

The meeting is set during a regional summit in South Korea. It may change the ties between the U.S. and China during a time of global change in business and politics.

Key Points Recap:

  • President Trump expects to cut tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese imports.
  • Talks with Xi Jinping will focus on fentanyl flows and support for U.S. farmers.
  • The potential tariff cuts depend on China stopping chemical exports used for fentanyl.
  • Rare earth export controls continue to be a subject of talks.
  • Trump has a positive view of U.S.-China ties before the meeting.

This story is still growing. Stay tuned for more news about the U.S.-China talks and the effect on trade and global work.

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Job Growth Surge: Private Sector Adds 15,000 Jobs Weekly as ADP Data Shows Economic Resilience

Private Sector Jobs Grow as New Roles Reach Almost 15,000 Each Week, ADP Quick Data Shows

October 28, 2025 – ADP, a well-known payroll company, shares data that shows the private sector added around 14,250 jobs each week for the past month. This rise comes after job losses in September and gives a brighter view of current work trends.

Key Points from ADP’s Quick Report

• In the last four weeks, companies made almost 15,000 new jobs each week.
• ADP now tracks a four-week average of week-to-week job changes. The report uses data that ends on October 11.
• This new report helps show work trends in near real time. It comes at a time when a government shutdown made official data hard to get.

The New ADP Job Count

ADP now shows week-to-week job changes averaged over four weeks. This tool helps investors, analysts, and policy experts see simple hints of job trends. The old National Employment Report (NER) does the work in these ways:

  • It counts job numbers once a month during the week that includes the 12th.
  • It gives details for each work sector.
  • It is shared once a month, just before the government release for payroll numbers.

The new ADP count gives a steady, rolling look at the market. It works as an early sign of job changes while the NER gives a fuller picture when it is released.

What the Data Means

The report shows that the weekly gain of 14,250 jobs adds up to about 55,000 jobs in a month. This strong gain stands in contrast to the NER report that showed a net loss of about 32,000 jobs in September.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said,
"ADP’s quick job data, shared each week, gives us a clear view of the work market now. It shows both new job creation and job loss with much detail."

Note that these early numbers can change when the full NER data for October comes out.

Looking Ahead

ADP now shares its weekly reports at this busy time for the U.S. economy. At a moment when many need the latest work data amid changes in policy and economy, the information may help the market and guide financial choices until government data goes back to its normal schedule.

For readers who follow work market updates, ADP will keep posting these four-week average reports every Tuesday. This steady view helps track changes in private sector employment.

Stay tuned as more data and month-end updates come in.

Source: ADP quick job data as reported by CNBC

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