Tag Archive for: financial planning

From the Great Resignation to the Great Stay: Understanding the Shifts in Today’s Labor Market

From the ‘Big Stay’ to a ‘No-Hire, No-Fire’ Freeze: How Labor Markets Are Shifting in 2025

The labor world in the United States and the United Kingdom is changing fast. Covid-19 left a mark with many workers leaving their jobs. After what many called the “Great Resignation”, 2025 now shows a new trend. Workers hold on to their jobs, and firms slow new hiring and cuts. This change brings what some call the “Great Stay” and a freeze on both adding and letting go of staff.

The Pandemic-Era Shakeup: Great Resignation Recap

At the height of Covid-19, workers moved frequently. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nearly 50.5 million Americans quit in 2022, up from 47.8 million in 2021. People left to seek better pay, work from home options, and more satisfying roles.

Enter the Great Stay: Workers Holding Firm

In 2025, the scene flips. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, names this stage the “Great Stay.” She points out that workers have the jobs they want. They keep the benefits from remote work and better pay while staying in a role longer than usual.

“People are staying put. They’re not leaving. And they’re staying put in sectors like IT and software development, where you’d usually expect a lot of movement,” Richardson said in a CNBC interview.

Workers now keep close to their roles, a clear break from the past chaos.

Employers’ Cautious Approach: No-Hire, No-Fire Market

Firms now act with care in a time of uncertain money. They stop new hiring and avoid layoffs. Richardson describes the scene as a “no-hire, no-fire” situation:

  • Hiring decisions put on hold: Companies unsure of the economic path wait before adding more staff.
  • Low layoff rates: Even with few hires, early claims for jobless benefits stay low. This shows that firms hold on to their staff.

This pause is a watchful step. Firms do not plan to cut numbers; they wait to see what comes next.

Signs of Cooling in Labor Markets

Recent numbers tell a clear story. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls grew only 73,000 in July 2025. This number falls short of many predictions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. These numbers may shape the Federal Reserve’s talk of interest rate cuts in their September meeting.

Parallel Trends in the United Kingdom

Workers in the UK face a similar scene. After record-high job openings in 2021 and early 2022 with nearly 1.3 million vacancies, the scene changed in mid-2025. The Office for National Statistics showed a 5.8% drop in job vacancies between May and July 2025 in 16 of 18 sectors.

The ONS also noted that:

  • Many companies are not recruiting or replacing staff who leave.
  • People aged 16-64 see a rise in doing neither work nor job hunting, with inactivity near 21%.

Monica George Michail from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research sees higher labor costs and tax and wage rises as part of the reason. Neil Carberry, CEO of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, sees the same trend as a “Big Stay” like in the U.S. He notes that job growth depends on economic strength and a firm business mood. With both low now, companies wait for clearer signs before moving ahead.

What Does This Mean for Workers and Employers?

  • For workers: The Great Stay means more job security. This low movement may strengthen how workers speak up for better terms, but it can also make it hard to change roles.
  • For employers: Holding off on hiring shows care in tough times. Yet, this pause might slow growth and new ideas when firms need fresh talent.

Conclusion

The shift from the past churn of the Great Resignation to today’s Great Stay and the no-change hiring mode shows how doubt about money shapes work trends. Workers stick with their roles, and firms keep a close eye on any changes. This quiet mode may continue as 2025 unfolds. Leaders in government and commerce must soon watch these trends to keep balance while seeking a fresh burst of growth.

For more news on work trends and money policy, keep watching CNBC’s full coverage.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Recession Specials Making a Comeback: Businesses Respond to Declining Consumer Confidence

Recession Specials Resurface as a Sign of Waning Consumer Sentiment

August 23, 2025 — Uncertainty grows as the economy stalls. Concern spreads. Many US businesses do simple acts. They bring back recession specials. These offers help them hold on to buyers who worry. In this way, the mood of shoppers now seems like that during the Great Recession nearly twenty years ago.

The Return of Recession Specials

During the Great Recession in the late 2000s, many bars and restaurants used low-price menus or “recession specials” to fight hard times. Media and online talk placed these deals in the spotlight. A 2008 Grub Street write-up called it “Your Definitive Guide to Recession Specials.” A 2009 New York Times story listed special deals at New York City restaurants.

Now, in 2025, similar acts appear. Worry grows over tariffs and a slowing economy. Several spots in cities like New York and San Francisco now run budget-friendly deals that they call recession specials:

  • Clever Blend, a coffee shop in Brooklyn, tags a "$6 gelato and espresso recession special."
  • Wicked Willy’s, a bar in Manhattan, runs a "Recession Pop Party" where guests join in despite economic stress.
  • Market Hotel, a Brooklyn concert hall, hosts events that play with economic themes. Their invite reads: "dress like rent’s due and you’re dancing through it."
  • In San Francisco’s Bay Area, the Super Duper burger chain sells a “Recession Combo.” This combo gives a seasonal Oklahoma-style smash burger, fries, and a drink for $10. It saves buyers $5 compared to the normal price.

Why the Recession Burger?

Ed Onas, the Vice President of Operations at Super Duper, tells us the name is not born from fresh fear. He points to the burger’s old roots in the Great Depression. Back then, adding sliced onions to beef made the meal stretch further. The name fits the discount. It shows a response to high inflation and gives real worth for money.

This deal grew fast. It topped lists on a local San Francisco forum, with many votes and talks. The trend grew so strong that Super Duper now plans to keep the Recession Burger on its menu.

Consumer Sentiment: A Growing Concern

Hints of the public mood show low consumer trust. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 in August 2025 from 61.7 in July. This drop builds on a waning trend seen over the year.

Joanne Hsu, who leads consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, lists causes:

  • Many see an economy that slows further, with rising prices and poor business work.
  • The labor market may weaken, and job loss may rise.
  • These fears touch all age groups. Young Americans feel the weight of economic risk as much as older ones.

Hsu warns that low trust and worries over steady income may make buyers spend less. This drop in spending matters for the health of the economy.

What This Means for Businesses and Consumers

The return of recession specials is more than a simple sales trick. It marks the state of the economic mood. Shops and venues in fast-changing areas, such as food and fun, may use these deals more as buyers keep close watch on cash and budgets.

For shoppers, these deals give some ease. They provide cheap choices when funds worry. The trend also shows we must keep a sharp eye on the economic road ahead.

As plans shift and fear of financial strain grows, the "recession special" may come back again in many spots—a sign that both sellers and buyers prepare for hard times.

For more clear facts and live tips on economic moves and buyer mood, keep watching CNBC’s coverage.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Spain’s Economic Renaissance: Unpacking the Success Behind Its Booming Growth and Global Appeal

Spain’s Economy Thrives Amid European Challenges: Key Drivers Behind the Boom

Spain’s economy shows strong growth and grit in 2025. It beats expectations as it works fast among European peers. New data show Spain’s GDP beat targets by growing 0.7% in Q2, beyond a forecast of 0.6%. This work puts Spain first in GDP growth in the euro zone, with an annual pace near 2.5% compared to France’s 0.6%, Germany’s 0%, and Italy’s 0.7%.

Key Contributors to Spain’s Economic Success

Several key points help Spain’s economic climb:

  • Strong Investment and Consumption: Private spending and public work push growth. The EU’s Next Generation EU funds back these moves.
  • Booming Tourism Sector: Tourism adds about 12% to GDP now. The travel field bounced back after the pandemic. Spain draws guests with low costs and rich culture.
  • Growing Workforce Through Immigration: New residents help the labor pool grow. Almost 90% of this rise comes from migration. The state has given nearly a million work visas and permits in the next three years.
  • Diversification Beyond Tourism: Fields like IT, finance, and other services add export value. They bring in more than €100 billion, outdoing travel income.
  • Low Energy Costs: Years of green power work cut electricity prices by 40%. This drop makes production cheaper and pulls in investors to areas such as solar power and batteries.

Tourism and Immigration: Catalysts Amid Challenges

Tourism boosts jobs, as the work force grew by 9.7% in 2024. Yet high visitor numbers have stirred local protests, especially in cities like Barcelona.

Immigration stays a key factor. While some nations close doors, Spain welcomes extra workers from Latin America and North Africa. These workers fill needed roles, especially in services, and help hold down wage rises even as prices rise in Europe.

Benefits from EU Recovery Funds and Foreign Direct Investment

Spain holds €163 billion in EU recovery funds, second only to Italy. Roughly 70% of these funds—around €55 billion—go to new investments in modern work, especially in clean power and services beyond travel.

Foreign money also flows in, as Spain ranks fourth in the EU for such investments. China plans an €11 billion spend in 2025 with 33 new projects, while US investment stays ahead overall. The focus remains on green power, new transport, and new tech.

Government Perspective and Outlook

Spain’s Finance Minister, Carlos Cuerpo, calls the nation “a great outlier” in growth and appeal. Yet the team faces these tasks:

  • Balancing Wage Growth with Living Costs: Pay must match rising prices.
  • Addressing Youth Unemployment: Spain now shows the highest youth work rate in the EU.
  • Managing Public Debt and Deficit: Solid choices are needed for long-term health.
  • Navigating Political Divides: Political splits may shape future plans.

Innovation in Renewable Energy and Industry

Spain now hosts major work in solar energy. A China-based firm, Arctech, begins a European project in Madrid. The nation uses clean power to keep bills low and draw in jobs like electric car making. For instance, Stellantis and CATL planned a $4.3 billion lithium battery plant in Zaragoza. This plan shows Spain’s growing role in green industry chains.

Spain’s economy moves forward with high consumption, smart investing, extra workers, a recovered travel scene, and low power costs. This mix makes Spain a top spot for international investors and businesses even as it meets social and political tests.

As Spain uses these strengths, it may serve as a model for recovery and steady growth in Europe.

For fresh updates on Spain’s economy and world market news, sign up for CNBC Daily Open report.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Sweet Relief Ahead: Why Chocolate Prices Are Rising Now but Set to Sweeten by 2026

Chocolate Prices Set to Climb Further in 2025, But a Smoother Outlook Expected in 2026

Chocolate fans face more price rises this year. The cocoa market shows a lag. Retailers see its mark on costs. Industry experts state that prices may hold steady by next Easter.

Sustained Price Pressure from Cocoa Market Challenges

Cocoa prices have jumped in recent years. In late 2024, they hit highs. Bad weather, pest problems, and a tight supply in West Africa pushed them up. West Africa produces about 75% of the world’s cocoa.

These shifts matched a rise in retail costs. Costs went up for buyers. A 2024 survey by UK consumer group Which? showed that chocolate had the highest rate of price rise—11%—in grocery stores. In the United States, favorites such as Hershey’s Kisses saw prices climb about 12% across one year.

Adalbert Lechner, head of Swiss maker Lindt & Sprüngli, told CNBC in April that he does not see cocoa prices falling back to old levels.

Current Market Trends and Consumer Impact

Cocoa futures dropped from $8,177 per metric ton in January to about $7,855 in August. Yet these numbers stay well above the figures from three years past, when cocoa was roughly $2,374 per metric ton.

Tracey Allen, an Agricultural Commodities Strategist at J.P. Morgan, explained on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that buyers still pay for the 2024 cocoa surge. “We’ve got a bit of a hangover happening here,” Allen remarked. The high costs built up in late 2024. Now, these costs pass to consumers. The passing on of costs keeps prices high when cocoa bean stocks drop.

Hope on the Horizon for 2026

There is some hope that prices will ease by next Easter. J.P. Morgan’s report points out several factors that might soften the market:

  • Better weather in West Africa
  • More cocoa coming from new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil
  • Reduced demand from chocolate makers

Allen mentioned that while prices may stay “structurally higher for longer,” some relief might come as cocoa stocks improve.

Additional Pressures on Chocolate Prices

Hamad Hussain, a Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that supply issues stick around beyond weather effects. He noted problems with long-term productivity, plant diseases, and less investment in cocoa-growing areas like Ivory Coast and Ghana, the top cocoa producers. These factors make supplies tight and prices high.

Beside the cocoa market, buyers also bear other cost increases:

  • In the UK, higher minimum wages and increased employee costs push food prices, including chocolate, upward.
  • In the US, tariffs push chocolate prices higher in the near term.

Hussain said, “The result is that buyers are likely to face high chocolate prices for some time.”

What This Means for Consumers

To sum up:

  • Chocolate prices will keep rising or stay high through 2025 because of last year’s cocoa price rises.
  • Better cocoa stocks and softer demand might bring some ease by Easter 2026.
  • Buyer’s costs also rise because of wage hikes and tariffs in the UK and US.
  • Cocoa prices may settle at levels that stay higher than in the past decade.

Chocolate fans might pay more this year. However, the view for next spring may bring a sweeter deal.

For more updates on market trends and forecasts, stay tuned to CNBC’s business coverage.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Resilience Amidst Turbulence: OMERS Achieves 2.2% Return in a Challenging Investment Landscape

OMERS Records 2.2% Return Amid a Challenging First Half of 2025

By Barbara Shecter | Published August 21, 2025

OMERS, the Ontario Municipal Employees’ Retirement System, is one of Canada’s largest pension funds. It earned a modest 2.2 percent investment return in the first half of 2025. The fund worked through a tough global economy. It faced uncertainty. It had major exposure to the United States.

Navigating a Difficult Market Landscape

OMERS gained $3.1 billion between January 1 and June 30, 2025. This gain raised its net assets to $140.7 billion. Global economic instability and volatile markets hit it hard. Still, the fund stayed positive in public and private investments.

More than 55 percent of its assets are in the U.S. This market felt shocks from recent global trade policy changes. The Trump administration’s tariffs made things worse. These factors made investing very hard. OMERS CEO Blake Hutcheson said this environment was especially challenging.

“OMERS had a positive start in what was a particularly challenging environment for investors,” he said. “We look at short-term problems while working in both public and private investing. Our team finds opportunities that add value now and later.”

Currency Impact and Hedging Strategies

Currency shifts also played a role. The U.S. dollar fell by over five percent in the first half. This drop hurt returns, even with some hedging in place. The change contributed a -1.2 percent effect to the overall numbers.

Yet, hedging was very helpful. Jonathan Simmons, OMERS’ Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, said, “Our active choice to hedge currencies raised returns by almost one percent. These moves protected portfolio value.”

Investment Performance Across Asset Classes

Over the past five years, OMERS earned an average annual net return of 8.7%. Over ten years, the return averaged 6.9%. In total, gains reached about $70.2 billion.

In early 2025, infrastructure and public equities drove returns. Six out of seven asset classes, including credit and bonds, added positively. However, private investments—especially private equity—fell, with a -1.3 percent performance.

Simmons explained, “Uncertainty in the global marketplace stops private investment valuations. Private equities and real estate have seen fewer transactions.”

Real Estate Portfolio: Signs of Recovery Amid Market Pressures

Real estate makes up about 15 percent of OMERS’ portfolio. This segment earned a 1.1 percent return in the first six months. Many Canadian pension funds suffer because office buildings struggle. Remote and hybrid work since COVID-19 hurt demand.

OMERS stays hopeful for real estate. The fund said, “Results were supported by strong operating fundamentals, especially in office and hotels.” This suggests that the market may stabilize soon.

Legal Actions Related to Retail Property Leases

Oxford Properties, the real estate arm of OMERS, has started legal actions. These actions deal with lease agreements from the insolvent Canadian retailer Hudson’s Bay Company. In early August, Oxford filed a court document. The document opposed shifting leases to an untested entrepreneur. It warned that such moves could hurt asset stability, reputation, and performance.

The filing stressed that keeping the portfolio stable is crucial. A decline could hurt the pension fund and its millions of beneficiaries.

Looking Ahead

OMERS moves through a complex investment scene. Its challenges come from economic and geopolitical issues. Even with modest gains in the first half of 2025, its diversified strategy and active management aim to build long-term value for beneficiaries.

Contact:
Barbara Shecter
Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com

This article is part of ongoing coverage by the Financial Post on Canadian pension funds and investment markets.

Full money-growing playbook here:
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

The Hidden Costs of Commuting: Why Going Back to the Office Could Mean a Pay Cut for Employees

Why Returning to the Office Feels Like a Pay Cut for Many Workers

The world shifts away from the pandemic, and employers now ask workers to meet in person. Government leaders and banks push this idea. Many workers see these new rules as a pay cut because extra expenses lower their net income. This is why.

The New Office Mandates

In Ontario, the government now demands that employees come to the office five days a week starting in 2026. Premier Doug Ford urges local governments to follow a similar plan. Major banks—Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, and Royal Bank of Canada—require staff to work in the office at least four days a week starting this September.

Many employees still favor remote work. They say coming in every day brings higher costs and a lower quality of life.

The Hidden Costs of Commuting and Office Life

Remote work helped workers save money and time during lockdowns. Now, returning to the office takes these benefits away. Workers lose in three main areas:

  • Time: The commute uses up hours each day. Less time remains for family, childcare, or personal tasks.
  • Transportation Costs: Extra expenses like gas, parking fees, and transit fares add up.
  • Daily Expenses: Spending more on lunch, coffee, and suitable work clothes grows costs.

Many workers feel these added costs cut into their pay. It seems like a reduction in their take-home income.

University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business professor Tsur Somerville explained, “People traded the lower cost of a house in the suburbs for the longer commute.” During the pandemic, many moved to bigger homes without worrying about commuting. In Canada, overall household savings climbed to about $350 billion.

Flexibility Remains the Top Priority for Workers

Today, flexibility is the key factor in choosing a job. Nancy D’Onofrio, director at Randstad Canada, notes that many workers need flexible schedules. In a survey of 26,000 people worldwide:

  • 55% said they would not take a job without a flexible schedule.
  • 37% left a previous job because they did not have flexibility.

Workers often choose a flexible job even if it means earning less. D’Onofrio warns that forcing full-time office work may reduce the talent pool, especially among skilled and bilingual employees.

Productivity Debate and Employer Strategies

Employers claim that productivity suffers without in-person oversight. Workers say that they perform just as well when working from home.

David Cairns, a strategist at hybrid workplace platform Kadence Inc. and former broker at CBRE Group, points out that the work-from-home rate has held steady since 2023. Before the pandemic, office occupancy ranged from 50% to 60%. The new return policies may only nudge that number a bit higher.

What Lies Ahead

Many workers hesitate to return to a full-time office schedule because of high costs. In this changing labor market, strict return policies may prompt resignations when better job offers appear.

Employers now face a clear choice. To keep top talent, they may need to rethink strict in-office rules and deal with the financial and personal costs that come with commuting.

Conclusion

For many Canadians, returning to the office is more than a change in routine. It feels like a pay cut when commuting and related expenses reduce net income. As conversations about work continue to evolve after the pandemic, employers must balance their needs with workers’ desires for flexibility and fair pay.

This article draws on insights from Financial Post reporting by Garry Marr and expert commentary from recruitment and workplace strategy professionals.

Full money-growing playbook here:
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

CIBC Welcomes Mark Mulroney: A Strategic Shift from Scotiabank Ahead of New CEO Transition

CIBC Strengthens Executive Team with Hire of Mark Mulroney from Scotiabank

By Naimul Karim | Published August 13, 2025

CIBC, Canada’s fifth-largest bank, has hired Mark Mulroney from Scotiabank.
Mulroney served as vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank.
He now becomes global vice-chair at CIBC, starting mid-November.
Each word here links closely to the next, which makes the message clear.

This hire comes when CIBC faces big changes.
Its long-serving CEO, Victor Dodig, steps down after ten years.
Dodig leaves this November.
Harry Culham will then lead as the new CEO.
Short links between ideas help us follow the news easily.

Mark Mulroney is the son of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.
He built his career in corporate and investment banking.
At CIBC, he will use his skills to build strong client ties across all areas.
The message is simple and the words connect directly.

CIBC makes other leadership shifts, too.
Kevin Li, who led operations in Europe and global investment banking, will now guide CIBC’s U.S. region.
Christian Exshaw will take over as group head of capital markets.
Each connection is close and clear, so every change is easy to follow.

More changes are coming with retirements.
Shawn Beber, who led CIBC’s U.S. operations for 23 years, retires on July 1, 2026, and then moves to a special adviser role in November.
Chief Legal Officer Kikelomo Lawal will also retire, though the bank has not given a date.
The short paired links make this news simple to read.

Many leaders keep their roles under incoming CEO Culham but with extra tasks.
Hratch Panossian will still lead personal and business banking.
He now also supervises contact centers and client marketing.
Susan Rimmer remains the head of commercial banking and wealth management and will monitor the CIBC Caribbean group.
Chief Financial Officer Robert Sedran and Chief Risk Officer Frank Guse will continue in their roles.
Each phrase stays close to its head for clarity.

CIBC’s new executive moves show its focus on steady leadership and smart growth.
Tight word links make the report easy to follow as the bank begins a new era.

Contact: nkarim@postmedia.com

Photo Caption: Mark Mulroney (left), who is vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank, is shown with his brother Ben Mulroney at a Montreal charity event in 2022.
Photo Credit: John Kenney / Montreal Gazette

About CIBC:
CIBC is one of Canada’s largest banks. It offers many financial products and services to personal, business, public sector, and institutional clients.

About Scotiabank:
Scotiabank, or the Bank of Nova Scotia, is a leading Canadian bank. It serves clients in Canada and around the world.

For more financial news and updates, subscribe to Financial Post’s daily newsletter and stay informed about the latest developments in Canadian banking and beyond.

Full money-growing playbook here:
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Modi’s Game-Changing Tax Reforms: Fueling India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Challenges

Modi Announces Tax Cuts to Boost India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures

New Delhi, August 18, 2025 — Indian markets rose on Monday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced tax cuts. Modi sets his eyes on boosting local spending. India faces rough times from rising U.S. tariffs linked to buying Russian crude oil.

Market Response and Economic Context

The Nifty 50 index climbed 1% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.84%. The Indian rupee grew stronger while the U.S. dollar slipped 0.18%.
U.S. tariffs, now set at 50% on Indian imports and a fresh 25% on Russian crude oil, will start at the end of August. Indian businesses see a spark in the tax cuts even as trade challenges build.

Details of the Tax Reforms

On August 15, 2025, Prime Minister Modi spoke on Independence Day about a new path for self-reliance and finance. He outlined a full change of the GST, moving from many taxes to two basic levels: 5% and 18%.
Before, GST rates varied widely with slabs like 12% and 28%. This new plan aims to:

• Make rules simple
• Cut tax rates on many goods
• Lessen loads for small and mid-sized businesses
• Lower taxes on must-have items
• Use technology with pre-filled returns and quicker refunds

This revamp may spark more investment in manufacturing, logistics, housing, and consumer goods, as noted by the India Brand Equity Foundation.

Impact on Key Industries: Focus on Auto Sector

The auto sector, which slowed recently, can win with these tax cuts. In 2024, passenger vehicle sales grew just 4.2%, the slowest in four years, said the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
On Monday, auto stocks jumped. Maruti Suzuki India rose 8.75% and Hyundai Motor India climbed 8.15%.
James Thom, a senior investment director at Aberdeen’s Asian equities team, told CNBC’s “Inside India,” "As the auto sector had moved slowly, this strong climb is a welcome change."

Broader Economic Outlook Amid Geopolitical Challenges

The Reserve Bank of India predicts a 6.5% growth in the economy for the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Geopolitical issues stay in play as U.S. tariffs add strain and ties with Russia weigh in.
Thom stressed that local spending is the backbone of India’s growth. He said, "The tax overhaul cuts down the load and makes processes simple, which can push the economy past the U.S. tariffs."
A Deloitte report found that domestic spending makes up 61.4% of GDP for 2024-25, and spending in cities and shifts toward luxury goods grow quickly.

Positive Consumption Trends and Inflation Control

India Ratings & Research expects personal spending to grow by 6.9% each year until March 2026, while the overall GDP should rise 6.3%. This outlook rests on:

• Low growth in real wages
• A fall in household savings
• Easier access to personal loans
• A drop in retail price increases from 4.31% in January to 1.55% in July 2025—the lowest since 2017

The calm in price rises may help keep spending on a steady course.

With Modi’s tax cuts, India tries to boost local demand and face U.S. tariff pressures head-on. The plans focus on home growth, using smart tech changes, and aiding key industries. These steps help support steady progress for India in 2025 and the years ahead.

Full money-growing playbook here: https://www.youtube.com/@the_money_grower

David Zervos Champions Bold Rate Cuts as Potential Fed Chair: A Market-Driven Approach to Economic Growth

David Zervos, Potential Fed Chair Candidate, Advocates for Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts

Wall Street veteran and Jefferies’ chief market strategist, David Zervos, now earns attention as a leading name for the next Federal Reserve chair. On Thursday, he spoke in favor of quick cuts in interest rates. His view joins others who ask for Fed action without delay.

Calling for Immediate Rate Reductions

For the last three Fed meetings, Zervos has asked for a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate. In a CNBC interview, he repeated his call even as data shows inflation still holds on. Zervos noted the July Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a rise in pipeline prices.

He sees the PPI data not as a stop sign but as the last mark in a long fight against rising prices. A quick drop in rates, he says, will help keep the labor market strong and could add a million new jobs.

"I’m still absolutely there. I think there is a reasonable storyline, a very cogent storyline, that suggests monetary policy is restrictive," Zervos stated. "Generally speaking, I don’t see any reason why this [PPI] number changes that view."

Expanding the List of Potential Fed Chairs

At first, discussions on Jerome Powell’s successor—whose term ends next year—named only a few people. In recent days, the list has grown to close to a dozen. Among these are former Fed workers, Trump team advisers, and well-known Wall Street economists.

Zervos and BlackRock bond strategist Rick Rieder stand out. They bring real market skills rather than a pure economics view. Zervos thinks a Fed filled with market-smart staff would really work well.

"I think it would be an incredible benefit to have more market-competent people involved in the monetary policy decision," he commented.

Broader Support for Rate Cuts

Zervos is not the only one who wants a clear rate cut. Economist Marc Sumerlin, also eyed for the Fed chair job, backs a similar half-point drop. He says the Fed has been too slow in taming inflation.

Former President Donald Trump has pressed for even bigger cuts. He suggests dropping up to 3 percentage points (300 basis points) from the current rate of about 4.33%. Zervos admitted he might not cut that much, but he remains open to a drop of up to 200 basis points. He sees modern tech changes and shifts in supply as reasons that could shape future price drops.

Navigating Politics and Monetary Policy

Zervos says politics will not shake his view. He faces harsh words from people like Trump. He knows that the Fed chair job comes with political ties. Zervos stressed that facts should lead the discussion and that decisions must follow the rules set by Congress.

"You go into that job fully understanding that you’re involved in the political process… The goal is to have the debate be driven by facts and be driven by what is best for achieving the mandates that Congress sets out," Zervos said.

In the race to select the next Federal Reserve head, support for fast rate cuts shows worries about balancing price controls with growth and jobs. David Zervos’s solid market view and call for easier monetary policy mark him as an important choice in this leadership change.

Surprising Surge: July 2025 PPI Inflation Report Reveals 0.9% Increase, Casting Doubts on Fed Rate Cuts

Wholesale Prices Surge by 0.9% in July 2025, Signaling Persistent Inflation Concerns

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report came out on August 14, 2025. It shows wholesale prices rose sharply in July. Prices jumped 0.9% in one month. This is the largest increase since June 2022. The report points to strong inflation in the U.S. economy. It may affect the Federal Reserve policy soon.

Key Highlights from the July 2025 PPI Report

  • Overall PPI rise: 0.9% versus a Dow Jones forecast of 0.2%.
  • Core PPI (skip food and energy): Up 0.9% against a prediction of 0.3%.
  • Core PPI (skip food, energy, and trade services): Up 0.6%, the largest gain since March 2022.
  • Annual PPI growth: 3.3%, the strongest 12-month increase since February and above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Services inflation: Increased 1.1% in July, the highest from March 2022.
  • Trade services margins: Went up by 2% due to tariff measures.

Drivers Behind the Inflation Rise

The report shows key factors that pushed prices higher:

  • Machinery and equipment wholesaling: Prices climbed 3.8%. This jump made up about 30% of the rise in services.
  • Portfolio management fees: Rose by 5.4%.
  • Airline passenger services: Increased 1%.

These points show that cost pressures grow for both goods and services. Producers may pass higher input costs on to buyers.

Market and Economic Effects

After the report came out, stock market futures fell while short-term U.S. Treasury yields went up. This move shows that investors worry about steady inflation. The PPI, though watched less than the Consumer Price Index, still shows price pressure at the wholesale level. It also feeds the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the main tool the Fed uses to track inflation.

Clark Geranen, chief market strategist at CalBay Investments, said, "The strong PPI, along with soft CPI figures, shows that businesses are covering some tariff costs now. They might soon pass these costs to buyers." This may lead to higher prices for shoppers in coming months.

Market views on Federal Reserve policy have shifted slightly. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a lower chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The odds for several rate cuts this year have dropped more.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said, "The spike in the PPI today shows inflation moving through the economy, even if buyers have not felt it fully yet. This unexpected rise in wholesale prices is likely to lower hopes for a sure rate cut in September."

Broader Context and Data Challenges

The PPI report comes at a time when experts look closely at the accuracy of BLS data. This month, President Donald Trump fired the former BLS commissioner and named economist E.J. Antoni as the new head. Antoni has challenged the BLS methods and pushed to check the data with better measures. He even suggested pausing some labor market reports until the data improves.

Budget cuts and layoffs at the BLS have led to changes in how data is gathered. The July PPI report did not include about 350 cost groups. This change makes some ask whether the data is complete.

Summary

July 2025’s PPI report shows that inflation remains strong in the wholesale sector. Both goods and services prices have risen sharply. This may force the Federal Reserve to work hard to control inflation without causing a recession. Investors, policymakers, and buyers will watch future data for more signs of changes in prices.

For more news on inflation, market moves, and Fed policy, keep up with CNBC and top economic news sources.