Tag Archive for: financial resilience

Resilience Amidst Turbulence: OMERS Achieves 2.2% Return in a Challenging Investment Landscape

OMERS Records 2.2% Return Amid a Challenging First Half of 2025

By Barbara Shecter | Published August 21, 2025

OMERS, the Ontario Municipal Employees’ Retirement System, is one of Canada’s largest pension funds. It earned a modest 2.2 percent investment return in the first half of 2025. The fund worked through a tough global economy. It faced uncertainty. It had major exposure to the United States.

Navigating a Difficult Market Landscape

OMERS gained $3.1 billion between January 1 and June 30, 2025. This gain raised its net assets to $140.7 billion. Global economic instability and volatile markets hit it hard. Still, the fund stayed positive in public and private investments.

More than 55 percent of its assets are in the U.S. This market felt shocks from recent global trade policy changes. The Trump administration’s tariffs made things worse. These factors made investing very hard. OMERS CEO Blake Hutcheson said this environment was especially challenging.

“OMERS had a positive start in what was a particularly challenging environment for investors,” he said. “We look at short-term problems while working in both public and private investing. Our team finds opportunities that add value now and later.”

Currency Impact and Hedging Strategies

Currency shifts also played a role. The U.S. dollar fell by over five percent in the first half. This drop hurt returns, even with some hedging in place. The change contributed a -1.2 percent effect to the overall numbers.

Yet, hedging was very helpful. Jonathan Simmons, OMERS’ Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, said, “Our active choice to hedge currencies raised returns by almost one percent. These moves protected portfolio value.”

Investment Performance Across Asset Classes

Over the past five years, OMERS earned an average annual net return of 8.7%. Over ten years, the return averaged 6.9%. In total, gains reached about $70.2 billion.

In early 2025, infrastructure and public equities drove returns. Six out of seven asset classes, including credit and bonds, added positively. However, private investments—especially private equity—fell, with a -1.3 percent performance.

Simmons explained, “Uncertainty in the global marketplace stops private investment valuations. Private equities and real estate have seen fewer transactions.”

Real Estate Portfolio: Signs of Recovery Amid Market Pressures

Real estate makes up about 15 percent of OMERS’ portfolio. This segment earned a 1.1 percent return in the first six months. Many Canadian pension funds suffer because office buildings struggle. Remote and hybrid work since COVID-19 hurt demand.

OMERS stays hopeful for real estate. The fund said, “Results were supported by strong operating fundamentals, especially in office and hotels.” This suggests that the market may stabilize soon.

Legal Actions Related to Retail Property Leases

Oxford Properties, the real estate arm of OMERS, has started legal actions. These actions deal with lease agreements from the insolvent Canadian retailer Hudson’s Bay Company. In early August, Oxford filed a court document. The document opposed shifting leases to an untested entrepreneur. It warned that such moves could hurt asset stability, reputation, and performance.

The filing stressed that keeping the portfolio stable is crucial. A decline could hurt the pension fund and its millions of beneficiaries.

Looking Ahead

OMERS moves through a complex investment scene. Its challenges come from economic and geopolitical issues. Even with modest gains in the first half of 2025, its diversified strategy and active management aim to build long-term value for beneficiaries.

Contact:
Barbara Shecter
Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com

This article is part of ongoing coverage by the Financial Post on Canadian pension funds and investment markets.

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EIA’s Disappointing Natural Gas Storage Report: What It Means for Prices and Traders

EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Misses Estimates, Influencing Market Dynamics

The U.S. Energy Information Administration put out its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on August 21, 2025. The report shows a build of +13 billion cubic feet in working gas. Analysts had expected a build of +22 billion cubic feet. Last week, the build reached +56 billion cubic feet.

Current Inventory Levels

Natural gas stocks now sit +174 billion cubic feet above the average of the past five years. Stock levels are -95 billion cubic feet lower compared to last year. The numbers show a shift in supply trends.

Market Reaction and Outlook

After the report came out, natural gas prices moved higher. Traders saw the smaller build as a sign that the storage market might change. The market now sees a chance for short-covering.
Prices have been under pressure since mid-July. Even if supply stays high, the recent data seem to give a small lift. Prices try to settle above the $2.80 mark. If they clear that point, they may rise toward the $3.00 to $3.05 range. The current strength index shows room for short-term gains.

Demand and Weather Factors

Weather forecasts now predict cooler days ahead. Temperatures should drop soon. This drop may trim natural gas use in the near future. Even though current use stays high, fading demand may hold back price gains.

Summary

  • Storage Build: +13 Bcf (short of the forecasted +22 Bcf)
  • Inventory Levels: +174 Bcf above the five-year average; -95 Bcf below last year
  • Price Reaction: Natural gas prices rose after the report; they now try to break the $2.80 mark
  • Outlook: Prices may rise toward $3.00-$3.05 if momentum holds, but cooler weather might slow gains

Investors and traders watch new reports and weather changes carefully. These factors shape the natural gas market in the coming weeks.

About the Author: Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. He studies both long-term trends and short-term market changes.

For more economic events and updates, visit the economic calendar.

Disclaimer: The article provides information only and is not trading advice. Conditions in the market can shift fast. Investors should do their own research and talk with a financial advisor before trading.

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US Jobless Claims Surge: Manufacturing Declines and Inflation Concerns Emerge

US Jobless Claims Increase Amid Weakening Regional Manufacturing and Rising Inflation Pressures

Date: August 21, 2025
Author: James Hyerczyk

Recent US numbers show the link between rising jobless claims and slowing growth in manufacturing. Labor market data now joins manufacturing figures in pointing to a softer economy. Traders worry as the Federal Reserve reads these signals when it sets its next steps.

Rising Jobless Claims Signal Cooling Labor Market

Initial US claims reached 235,000 for the week ending August 16. This number beats forecasts of 225,000 and sits at the highest level since June. The rise builds week after week. Continuing claims now total 1.97 million; they top past expectations and hit a peak last seen in November 2021. These signs tie more workers to unemployment benefits. They also connect weak labor demand with possible market shifts ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. The data keep both traders and analysts alert.

Manufacturing Sector Outlook Deteriorates

The August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing losing ground. The overall activity index falls from 15.9 to -0.3. New orders sink into negative figures at -1.9 for the first time since April. Shipments drop to 4.5, while the employment index falls to 5.9, yet it still hints at some hiring.

A slight rise in the average workweek cannot mask the decline in new orders. Seventy-four percent of companies report no changes in employment, while only 16% see more workers. This pattern ties low order levels to weak regional production in the third quarter.

Inflationary Pressures Remain Elevated

Prices keep rising as manufacturers face higher bills and costs. The prices paid index jumps by 8 points to settle at 66.8, a level unseen since May 2022. Meanwhile, prices received by manufacturers grow to 36.1. Firms now expect 12-month cost rises to reach 4.1%, up from 3.8% back in May.

More than half of the companies expect costs to rise over the next six months. Seventy-one percent see competitors raise prices soon. Even though forecasted wage growth slows from 4.0% to 3.5%, high input and output price expectations hold inflation high.

Market Implications: Cautious Sentiment on Economy and Fed Policy

The mix of rising unemployment claims, soft manufacturing orders, and ongoing inflation yields a mixed outlook. Firms keep a positive view for the future even as current figures show slowing growth. Analysts see these links as a sign of trouble for US equities and industrial stocks. All eyes now turn to upcoming job reports and inflation readings to fix views on Fed moves in this shifting scene.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a skilled technical analyst and educator based in the US. He brings over 40 years of experience with market charts and price trends. He has written several books and knows the futures and stock markets well.

For ongoing economic news and analysis, visit FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and Market Forecasts.

Disclaimer: This article serves for educational and informational aims. It should not stand as investment advice. Be sure to do your own research and talk with financial experts before taking any action.

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Navigating the Storm: How China’s Rising Youth Unemployment Threatens Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence

China Faces Jobs Crunch as Youth Unemployment Threatens Growth Outlook

By Bob Mason
Published: August 21, 2025, 03:51 GMT

Rising Youth Unemployment Clouds Economic Outlook

China sees a strong rise in youth job loss. Youth unemployment hit 17.8% in July and marked an 11-month peak. The national rate increased slightly to 5.2% in July from 5.0% in June. The young workers suffer hard. This trend may lower trust in spending and risk slowing Beijing’s goal of 5% GDP growth in 2025. ### Labor Market Pressures Amid Economic Uncertainty

New university graduates crowd the job market. Global concerns and US tariffs press the economy. In manufacturing—a key part of China’s work—the pressure grows. The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July from 50.4 in June. Lower new export orders and softer local demand push this drop. High input costs and strong competition make many factories cut jobs, which adds more strain.

Consumer Spending Shows Signs of Slowing

Youth job loss dampens the mood. This change slows household spending. Retail sales grew 3.7% year on year in July, down from 4.8% in June. Government steps aim to boost buying, yet a long slowdown may blunt broader growth. Beijing sees the risk and acts to bring spending up at home.

Beijing’s Policy Response: Stimulus and Stabilization Efforts

Premier Li Qiang met with top economic leaders. He pledged new plans to support the housing scene, boost home spending, and ease job market strain. New firm hiring for young graduates and shifts in labor rules form part of these steps.

Services Sector Provides a Silver Lining

The services field shows strength as making jobs falls in other areas. The S&P Global China General Services PMI rose to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. More hires in this sector point to a shift toward a buying-driven economy. Beijing’s efforts seem to work even as outside challenges persist.

Economic Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic

Experts ask for steady government work to meet growth goals. Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis Asia Pacific says, "China can hit its 2025 growth target if more policy steps come soon, though the latter months may be tough." She sees 5% GDP growth next year, then 4.5% in 2026, while keeping watch over trade issues and weak price pressures.

Stock Markets Rally on Stimulus Hopes and Economic Optimism

Market moves in China show hope. On August 21, the CSI 300 index reached a 10‐month high, and the Shanghai Composite Index touched a 10-year mark. Year-to-date gains were 9.47% for the CSI 300 and 12.9% for the Shanghai Composite. Still, both sit below their past records. The Hang Seng Index rose 25.42% year to date. Leading economist Hao Hong said, "China hits new highs yet retail steps remain low. The market now expects solid policy share and plenty of cash flow." He added that a stock rebound could boost trust at home when other areas face hurdles.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Beijing must work to renew growth and steady the labor market. The next few weeks hold key data on factory profits and the August private sector PMI. Trade talks with the US add more risk. Quick moves in policy that fix youth job loss and housing problems might get the economy back on track. Investors and officials watch new data and news very closely.

For continuous updates on China’s economic policies and markets, visit FXEmpire’s economic calendar and market analysis sections.

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FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed’s Inflation Concerns: What This Means for Markets and Traders

FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Members Expect Higher Inflation Ahead

August 20, 2025 – FXEmpire

The latest FOMC minutes of the Federal Reserve give key views on inflation and the economy. Fed members see inflation rising soon. They point to higher tariffs as a cause of the change.

Tariff Effects Becoming More Evident

The minutes show that tariffs affect the economy more each day. Recent data shows goods get more expensive. Fed members see that price changes for consumers will not come at once. They think the change will grow slowly. Business actions, such as building up stock, add to the delay. Firms have raised inventories before tariffs change. This stock buildup and slow shifts in input costs make price rises occur bit by bit.

Who Bears the Tariff Costs?

Fed members see that American businesses and buyers pay most of the extra costs. Foreign exporters cover only a small share. This mix makes it likely that companies pass on higher costs to buyers step by step.

Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Risks

The minutes show that uncertainty about the economy stays high. Some members worry that inflation might go above their current views. These risks could make rules stick tighter if prices keep rising. Investors now watch more closely for any move in policy.

Market Reactions: Stocks and Currency Movements

After the minutes came out, markets reacted:

  • The S&P 500 Index dropped toward the 6375 mark. Traders read the news as a sign that the Fed will keep a strict focus on rising prices. They worry that rate cuts in September might be postponed.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index made a small bounce after dropping in an earlier session. Traders watch the dollar, especially with fresh political news coming in.
  • Gold prices stayed near $3345 per ounce. Since gold reacts to moves in the dollar, traders will keep an eye on how the currency shifts.

Looking Ahead

The minutes show that the Fed keeps a close watch on inflation risks from tariffs. Traders will study upcoming data and Fed news for clearer signs on how inflation and rates may move. For more details on economic events and how they could change the market, watch the economic calendar and related analysis.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with over 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. His work focuses on both short-term and long-term market trends.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for educational and research purposes and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading involves risk, and individuals should do their own research before making financial decisions.

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Crude Oil Supply Plummets: Inventories Fall by 6 Million Barrels as WTI Tests $62.50 Milestone

Crude Inventories Drop by 6 Million Barrels; WTI Oil Tests the $62.50 Level

By Vladimir Zernov | Published August 20, 2025, 14:43 GMT+00:00

On August 20, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration set out its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report shows that crude stocks fell by 6 million barrels in one week. Analysts had guessed a drop of only 1.3 million barrels. This report ties a steep loss in stocks with tighter supply.

Inventory Levels and Market Impact

Crude stocks now sit 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline numbers dropped by 2.7 million barrels when forecasters saw a loss of 0.8 million barrels. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, climbed by 2.3 million barrels.

Crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day. This number is 423,000 barrels lower than the previous period. The four-week average comes to 6.4 million barrels per day. These figures show a slow drop in incoming oil.

Domestic Production and Strategic Reserves

Domestic oil production went up. It moved from 13.327 million barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels. This rise shows that U.S. production stays steady. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew too, from 403.2 million barrels to 403.4 million barrels. The reserve now adds oil at a slow pace.

Price Movements: WTI and Brent

WTI crude oil prices stayed nearly the same after the report came out. Traders now work to keep prices above $62.50 per barrel. Across the ocean, Brent crude also fights to hold above $66.50 per barrel. The drop in inventories helps keep oil prices up. Some traders worry that extra production from OPEC+ nations may dump too much oil into the market. This mix keeps traders careful.

Outlook

Lower crude inventories and steady production give a positive sign to the oil market. Yet the chance of too much supply may slow price rises. Traders keep a close watch on new supply data and global events that may shift prices. For more on economic impacts and upcoming market events, check the economic calendar.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with more than 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, and commodities. He works on both short- and long-term forecasts.

This article shows the latest data as of August 20, 2025, and is meant only for information. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment moves.

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UK Inflation Surges, Reshaping BoE Rate Expectations: Will GBP/USD Break $1.35?

UK Inflation Uptick Clouds Bank of England Outlook, GBP/USD Eyes $1.35 Breakout

By Bob Mason | Updated: August 20, 2025, 12:29 GMT+00:00

UK inflation data now adds doubt to the Bank of England’s future plans. Inflation moved higher in July, a sign that the central bank’s careful view faces more challenges amid mixed signals. In currency markets, traders watch the British pound against the US dollar as it nears a key resistance at $1.35. ### UK Inflation Rises in July, Challenging Rate Cut Expectations

In July, inflation in the UK stepped up. The Consumer Prices Index climbed to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.6% in June. Core inflation, which leaves out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, moved to 3.8% from 3.6%. Monthly, prices went up 0.1% after a 0.3% rise in June.

The Office for National Statistics shows that when owner-occupier housing costs are added, the CPIH reached 4.2% over twelve months, a small rise from 4.1%. Airfares pushed transport costs up, which acted against lower costs for housing and household services.

Core CPIH year-on-year fell slightly to 4.2% from 4.3%, while price rises in services grew to 5.0% from 4.7%. These numbers show that inflation problems continue across different parts of the economy, making it hard for the BoE to balance price control with growth.

Economic Context: Mixed Signals from GDP and Labor Market

Recent data from GDP and the labor market show mixed results. The UK economy grew by 0.4% in June after a 0.1% drop in May. Second-quarter GDP grew 0.3%, a slower pace compared to 0.7% in the first quarter. This slow growth raises worries about a stagnant economy even with high inflation.

Data on wages show that average earnings, with bonuses, moved up by 4.6% year-on-year in June, down from 5% in May. This soft wage growth may lower consumer demand and stir inflation concerns.

James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said, "Overall, Q2 GDP was better than many feared. Growth has held up okay this year and Rachel Reeves will stress the UK’s good spot among the G7. But stagnation remains a big problem with the risk of a lower growth forecast looming over the Autumn Budget."

BoE’s Monetary Policy Outlook Clouded by Inflation and Growth Dynamics

Last week, the Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%. The vote was 5-4 and showed deep differences over inflation risks and wage trends. The rise in July inflation lowers the chance of another cut in September, even if some experts see easing later in 2025. ING Economics doubts that the BoE will change plans because of better GDP figures. One expert noted, "This might boost those who favor fewer rate cuts now. But upcoming inflation and jobs data will matter more." Analysts point out that GDP in the second half of the year may show weaker growth since the labor market faces more strain, with payrolled jobs dropping in eight of nine recent months.

The dates and size of future rate cuts will depend on coming inflation and employment reports. For now, the July figures push policymakers to be cautious about fast cuts.

GBP/USD Reacts to Inflation Data, Eyes $1.35 Breakout

Currency traders responded quickly to the new inflation data. Before the figures, GBP/USD hit a high of $1.34927 before falling to $1.34616. After the report, the pair slipped to $1.34757, then quickly rose to $1.34980. As of midday on August 20, the value held steady at about $1.34907. This movement shows that traders now do not expect an immediate rate cut by the BoE.

Market eyes now turn to August’s flash private sector PMIs due on August 21. Since UK services account for more than 70% of GDP, a clear drop in the Services PMI might push a rate cut in November. Signals from input prices, output prices, and employment in the sector will be watched closely for hints that inflation is easing.

Lower prices and cuts in jobs in services could push the BoE toward a softer stance. This may put pressure on the British pound.

Outlook

The new inflation figures mark ongoing price challenges in the UK even as growth slows. With this uncertain path, market watchers will track new economic data to see what the BoE does next and how GBP/USD handles the next test near $1.35. For live updates on BoE plans, UK inflation, and currency forecast news, follow FXEmpire’s real-time analysis and coverage.

About the Author

Bob Mason has over 28 years of work in the financial world. He has worked with global rating agencies and multinational banks. He now focuses on currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities with a focus on European and Asian markets.

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Navigating Home Depot’s Mixed Results: What to Watch in Today’s Dow Jones Forecast

Dow Jones Forecast: Home Depot Shares Drop Pre-Market — Key Factors for Traders to Watch

By James Hyerczyk | Updated August 19, 2025, 12:35 GMT+00:00

Home Depot (HD) shares fell about 1.8% in pre-market trade. The stock settled near $387.53 after the company released earnings that did not meet Wall Street expectations for a second quarter in a row. Home Depot missed its earnings and revenue goals but kept its full-year forecast. The firm now shows a firm pressure amid hard times in housing. Traders and investors now watch the stock and each new detail of the company to learn what might come.

Earnings and Revenue Miss for Second Straight Quarter

In its fiscal second quarter, Home Depot posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.68, which came in just below the expected $4.71. Its revenue reached $45.28 billion, a bit under the expected $45.36 billion mark. The numbers fell short but still marked almost a 5% rise in revenue from last year.

Store sales, an important measure, grew by 1.0% around the world and 1.4% in the U.S. This rise was the second year-over-year uptick in the last eleven quarters. July saw more strength with sales up by 3.3%, hinting at late-quarter improvement despite overall challenges. This quarter is the first time since 2014 that the firm has missed earnings and revenue targets in the same period. This shortfall may affect how investors see the stock.

Shift Toward Professional Customers Drives Strategy

Home Depot now faces hard times in its do-it-yourself (DIY) area. Homeowners hesitate to start large projects, showing what the company calls a “deferral mindset.” The firm now puts more care into its pro-customer area to balance the low DIY activity.

This change shows in its recent moves. The company bought SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to buy GMS for $4.3 billion. Both firms sell to trade professionals. CFO Richard McPhail said that pro customers now make up about 55% of the store’s total sales. The focus on the pro market now helps the firm be more steady as store sales by regular customers stay low.

Margins and Pricing Power Under Scrutiny

The total count of customer deals dropped to 446.8 million from 451 million in the previous year’s quarter. At the same time, the average ticket size went up to $90.01. This change means Home Depot still holds some power to set prices in today’s market. The company has not passed new import tariffs to its buyers because most shipments came before these duties began.

Investors will now keep a keen eye on how tariff strains and rising costs may affect margins in future quarters—especially if talks on tariffs slow or new duties come in.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

On a chart, Home Depot’s stock now moves back toward key support marks. The first support lies around $382.92 to $376.81. This range meets the 200-day moving average and sits in the middle of the June to August trade range. If the stock drops below this zone, it may test further support near the 100-day moving average, about $372.30. On the up side, resistance seems to live near $402.79 to $407.82. Given the mixed quarter and the need to balance the growth in the pro area with the missed estimates, the stock may now trade in this range for a while.

Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism Amid Mixed Results

Home Depot’s shift to focus on trade professionals fits the current housing market. Still, missing the earnings and revenue targets shakes some confidence. With regular sales showing some growth and the average ticket size up, some investors may see the lower share price as a chance to buy.

For now, until the housing market or mortgage rates change a lot, the stock may not see a strong rise. Traders should keep a close watch on how margins, tariff effects, and pro-customer growth shape the stock’s path in the coming months.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and teacher. He holds more than 40 years of experience in market analysis and trade. He has written two books on technical study and follows both futures and stock markets closely.

For current market trends and economic events, please view a full economic calendar and related market guides.

Disclaimer: The material above is for information and teaching only. It should not be seen as financial advice. Investors should do their own study or talk with a financial advisor before any trade decisions.

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The Hidden Costs of Commuting: Why Going Back to the Office Could Mean a Pay Cut for Employees

Why Returning to the Office Feels Like a Pay Cut for Many Workers

The world shifts away from the pandemic, and employers now ask workers to meet in person. Government leaders and banks push this idea. Many workers see these new rules as a pay cut because extra expenses lower their net income. This is why.

The New Office Mandates

In Ontario, the government now demands that employees come to the office five days a week starting in 2026. Premier Doug Ford urges local governments to follow a similar plan. Major banks—Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, and Royal Bank of Canada—require staff to work in the office at least four days a week starting this September.

Many employees still favor remote work. They say coming in every day brings higher costs and a lower quality of life.

The Hidden Costs of Commuting and Office Life

Remote work helped workers save money and time during lockdowns. Now, returning to the office takes these benefits away. Workers lose in three main areas:

  • Time: The commute uses up hours each day. Less time remains for family, childcare, or personal tasks.
  • Transportation Costs: Extra expenses like gas, parking fees, and transit fares add up.
  • Daily Expenses: Spending more on lunch, coffee, and suitable work clothes grows costs.

Many workers feel these added costs cut into their pay. It seems like a reduction in their take-home income.

University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business professor Tsur Somerville explained, “People traded the lower cost of a house in the suburbs for the longer commute.” During the pandemic, many moved to bigger homes without worrying about commuting. In Canada, overall household savings climbed to about $350 billion.

Flexibility Remains the Top Priority for Workers

Today, flexibility is the key factor in choosing a job. Nancy D’Onofrio, director at Randstad Canada, notes that many workers need flexible schedules. In a survey of 26,000 people worldwide:

  • 55% said they would not take a job without a flexible schedule.
  • 37% left a previous job because they did not have flexibility.

Workers often choose a flexible job even if it means earning less. D’Onofrio warns that forcing full-time office work may reduce the talent pool, especially among skilled and bilingual employees.

Productivity Debate and Employer Strategies

Employers claim that productivity suffers without in-person oversight. Workers say that they perform just as well when working from home.

David Cairns, a strategist at hybrid workplace platform Kadence Inc. and former broker at CBRE Group, points out that the work-from-home rate has held steady since 2023. Before the pandemic, office occupancy ranged from 50% to 60%. The new return policies may only nudge that number a bit higher.

What Lies Ahead

Many workers hesitate to return to a full-time office schedule because of high costs. In this changing labor market, strict return policies may prompt resignations when better job offers appear.

Employers now face a clear choice. To keep top talent, they may need to rethink strict in-office rules and deal with the financial and personal costs that come with commuting.

Conclusion

For many Canadians, returning to the office is more than a change in routine. It feels like a pay cut when commuting and related expenses reduce net income. As conversations about work continue to evolve after the pandemic, employers must balance their needs with workers’ desires for flexibility and fair pay.

This article draws on insights from Financial Post reporting by Garry Marr and expert commentary from recruitment and workplace strategy professionals.

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China’s Economic Crossroads: Will Stimulus Propel Growth or Invite a Stall?

China Outlook: Stimulus or Stall? China’s Next Moves Loom Over Markets and Growth

By Bob Mason | Published: August 19, 2025, 01:07 GMT

Global markets and investors keep a close eye on China’s path. Key questions grow as Beijing may use new stimulus measures to keep growth alive or allow a stall that could harm markets. Trade issues mix with soft economic signs and cautious investor moods. These factors add doubt for the world’s second-largest economy.

Trade Truce Extended Yet Fragile

On August 11, the United States and China extended a break in their trade war for 90 days. This choice stops a full fight for now. Both sides stay quiet on deep trade talks or changes in tariff ideas. Tariffs remain on Chinese goods at about 55% when sent to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. goods face around 10% when entering China.

This state forms a calm that is weak. Experts see risk if each side shifts its position soon.

Rare Earth Exports Signal Underlying Tensions

China now holds back on rare earth exports. These metals help many tech and defense jobs run. Beijing warns firms not to stockpile these resources. It cuts export amounts to stop foreign hoarding.

The China Beige Book shows that China uses rare earth exports to hold more power. This step shows Beijing wants to keep its bargaining strength.

Declining Shipping Volumes Reflect Slowing Trade

Data from shipments marks a drop in trade between China and the U.S. The Kobeissi Letter tells us that container ship trips from China reached a low in 15 days, the lowest in two years. Shipping numbers fell nearly 40% last month. This drop happens even with the tariff break, which shows tariffs still slow trade movements.

Economic Indicators Signal Slowing Growth

China had a strong second quarter. Still, in July, signs of slowing appear. Industrial output rose 5.7% from last year, down from 6.8% in June. The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, below the neutral mark of 50. This shift shows shrinking output and fewer new export orders.

Retail sales only grew 3.7% in July, down from 4.8% in June. Policy actions aimed to boost local spending, yet a weak housing market keeps consumer mood low. Rising costs in factories force firms to cut wages and staff. These trends suggest challenges that may test Beijing’s goal of a 5% GDP rise in 2025. Stock Markets Show Tentative Gains Amid Fragile Confidence

Mainland China’s stock markets have made small gains. The CSI 300 peaked at a 10‑month high, and the Shanghai Composite reached a 10‑year top in mid‑August. Both still trail all‑time highs, which points to cautious hope.

By contrast, U.S. markets kept rising. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 set record marks, helped by strong July retail data. Canadian economist Hao Hong says that a rising market is needed to lift household trust here—a point that Beijing knows well.

Divergent Views on China’s Economic Path

Economists have split opinions on China’s near‑term future. Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, notes that a strong first half makes a 5% GDP target seem possible. To reach the target, the economy must average nearly 4.7% growth in the rest of the year. This growth looks possible with a fiscal push and a bit of softer money policy.

Yet, Garcia Herrero warns that current gains may not hold without stronger actions. The service sector must get a push as well. Even with trade risks and falling prices, the Chinese government can use policy tools to back growth if needed. Natixis now expects GDP to reach 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. Strong Equity Rally Despite Uncertainty

Amid this uncertain time, stocks in China and Hong Kong did well in 2025:

  • CSI 300: +4.02% in August, +7.74% year‑to‑date (YTD).
  • Shanghai Composite: +4.33% in August, +11.23% YTD.
  • Hang Seng Index: +25.51% YTD, beating both Mainland markets and the Nasdaq (+11.97% YTD).

Investors watch Beijing’s next steps. A delay in a fiscal boost or softer economic numbers could end the current stock market rise.

Conclusion

China stands at a key point where its choices on stimulus and trade shape its future. The break in a trade fight stops a clash for now, yet problems persist with rare earth rules and tariffs.

Economic numbers show signs of slower growth. The policy moves in the coming months will decide if growth and market trust can stay on track. For global markets, China’s course stays a major factor amid ongoing worldwide challenges.

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