S&P 500 and Nasdaq Update: Amazon Benefits from AWS Growth While Apple Faces iPhone Supply Headwinds

Published: October 30, 2025, 21:06 GMT
Author: James Hyerczyk

In this earnings season, two tech companies, Amazon and Apple, report results that show different growth paths. Amazon builds on its strong AWS cloud arm, while Apple struggles with supply limits that may slow sales, especially for the iPhone.

Amazon’s AWS Drives Profit and Revenue Growth

Amazon had solid Q3 earnings. Its earnings per share hit $1.95—far above the $1.57 that analysts expected—and revenue reached $180.2 billion. AWS stands out in these results; its revenue reached $33 billion, with a 20.2% gain from last year. This gain improved by 270 basis points over the previous quarter and shows AWS adds extra profit to Amazon.

While AWS makes up about 15% of total revenue, it supplies close to two-thirds of the operating profit. Amazon’s ad division did well, bringing in $17.7 billion.

Looking ahead, Amazon expects next-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion. This target is a bit lower than most estimates but fits with plans to grow AWS and invest in infrastructure. The company announced an $11 billion data center project aimed at AI work—a move planned for long-term gains.

A recent AWS outage did not shake investor trust. Many view Amazon as steady because of cloud growth and rising margins, making the stock a clear buy in the current market.

Apple’s Growth Hinges on iPhone Supply Unlocking

Apple posted a modest beat in its fiscal Q4 with EPS at $1.85 on revenue of $102.5 billion. Yet iPhone sales reached $49 billion, just below the $50.2 billion expected. CEO Tim Cook pointed to supply limits on the iPhone 17 and 16 as the main issue behind the lower sales.

Still, Apple guides for 10% to 12% revenue growth in the first Q of 2026. This would mean revenue of about $138 billion, above the roughly $132.3 billion that many expect. Hitting this target relies on easing the current supply limits before the December holidays.

Apple’s services segment kept its strong pace, posting a 15% rise to $28.75 billion. This part of the business kept gross margins above 70% and raised overall margins to 47.2%. Mac sales grew by 13%. Still, revenue in Greater China dropped 4% compared to last year, which may add pressure if iPhone sales fall further.

Apple’s near-term outlook remains risky. If it unlocks its iPhone supplies, the stock may do well. If supply problems continue, its high valuation based on services might not support the share price.

Analyst Takeaways: Amazon Is the Clearer Tactical Buy

The choice between these tech giants appears clear. Apple’s progress and stock growth now depend on fixing its supply chain so that the new iPhone lineup can hit the market. In contrast, Amazon shows steady growth through an expanding AWS unit and smart AI investments.

For many investors, waiting for clear signs that Apple has solved its supply issues seems wise. While that unfolds, Amazon’s persistent cloud strength and rising margins help make it a more understandable bet for tech growth.

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About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of market experience. He studies chart patterns and price moves. He has written two books on technical analysis and is skilled in both futures and stocks.

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Related Reading:

• What’s the Outlook for US-China Relations After the One-year Trading Truce?
• Tech Titans Split: Meta Tanks, Alphabet Rallies, Microsoft Stalls Despite Solid Beats
• Powell Cautions Against Assuming More Cuts, Cites Uncertainty and Split Within FOMC

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Disclaimer: The information provided is for education and research purposes and does not serve as investment advice. Investors should do their own research and talk to financial advisors before making any decisions.

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Tech Titans Post Mixed Earnings: Meta Declines, Alphabet Surges, Microsoft Pauses

By James Hyerczyk | Updated October 29, 2025, 21:08 GMT+00:00

This week, tech giants posted clear and split earnings. Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft all showed strong quarterly numbers. The market, however, did not react the same for each firm.

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Meta’s Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Tax Charge and Spending Concerns

Meta Platforms showed steady third-quarter strength. It earned $51.24 billion in revenue, a 26% jump from last year. Its adjusted earnings per share reached $7.25, and both figures topped expectations. Advertisements pulled in $50.08 billion, helped by steady user numbers of 3.54 billion daily active users across its apps.

A sudden non-cash tax charge of $15.93 billion hit Meta’s shares. This charge came with the new "One Big Beautiful Bill." Meta said the bill would cut future tax costs, but investors still grew cautious.

Meta then raised its cost forecast. The company now expects spending between $116 billion and $118 billion, with capital outlays reaching up to $72 billion in 2025. The Reality Labs division lost $4.4 billion as well. These points made traders doubt the return on Meta’s heavy bets on AI and virtual reality.

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Alphabet Hits Milestone with Historic Revenue, Cloud Drives Growth

Alphabet surprised the market by posting $102.35 billion in revenue for the quarter. It passed the $100 billion mark for the first time. Google Cloud revenue jumped 35% year-over-year to $15.15 billion as AI tech drove strong demand.

Earnings per share came in at $2.87. This number is solid, though accounting methods make it hard to compare with other estimates. After the report, shares grew by 5% in after-hours trading.

Alphabet’s core search business raised $56.56 billion, a 15% increase from last year. A $3.45 billion fine from the European Union cut into profits, but many saw this as a manageable cost. The company now sets its 2025 capital spend between $91 billion and $93 billion. Investors viewed this higher spend as a smart move given the $155 billion pending in Google Cloud work.

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Microsoft Posts Broad-Based Beats but Faces Investor Caution

Microsoft reported solid results with revenue growing 18% to $77.67 billion. Its Azure cloud grew 40%, topping the Wall Street forecast of 38%. Earnings per share reached $4.13, above the expected $3.67. Still, Microsoft’s stock dipped slightly after its report. A $3.1 billion charge on the OpenAI investment hurt net income. Shares had already risen 28% this year and reached record highs before the earnings report, so much of the good news was already built in.

The firm noted that capital spending would remain high into 2026, yet warned that growth might slow. This note of caution, along with its ongoing high investment in AI, made some investors careful.

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Market Reaction Reflects Growing Focus on Quality of Growth

Investors came to Big Tech earnings season in search of more than big numbers. They looked for clear AI profit paths and strict cost plans. Alphabet’s clear results drove a stock rally, while Microsoft’s expected gains led to a quieter move. Meta’s strong revenue lost weight under a heavy tax charge and rising costs.

As the market waits for news from Apple and Amazon, expectations are up. Investors now want growth stories that pair tech plans with clear money results.

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About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a seasoned technical analyst and market educator based in the U.S., with over 40 years of experience in analyzing market trends and trading. He is an author of two books on technical analysis and has expertise spanning futures and stock markets.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower

Fed Chair Powell Urges Caution on Future Rate Cuts Amid Uncertainty and FOMC Division

October 29, 2025 – Washington, D.C. – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warns of too-quick hopes for more rate cuts. He notes that the economy stays uncertain and FOMC members split on the issue. After the policy meeting, Powell made clear that while easing borrowing costs is in place, another cut—especially by December—is not a sure thing.

Recent Rate Cut and Market Reaction

On Wednesday, the Fed cut its target rate by 25 basis points. The new range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Many in the market expected this move. At first, U.S. equity indexes rose and Treasury yields climbed a bit because of the shift in policy.

Soon after, Powell said the decision on future cuts stays open. He used simple words: a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” His words signaled clear split opinions within the FOMC. This leaves investors and decision makers with a tougher path forward.

Balance Sheet Reduction to Halt Next Month

In another policy change, the Fed tells us that it will stop its balance sheet reduction on December 1. For some time, the Fed has shrunk assets by about $2.3 trillion. This brings total holdings to $6.6 trillion. The central bank seeks to avoid harm from too much tightening in liquidity, especially after hints of trouble in funding markets.

Soon, when mortgage-backed securities mature, the Fed will reinvest payments into short-term Treasury bills. This step shows a careful plan to keep market liquidity steady.

Mixed Economic Signals Amid Data Challenges

The FOMC now sees the economy in a slightly better light. They note that economic activity grows at a steady pace. Powell backs this view by citing strong consumer spending that came before some data issues.

However, job numbers tell a different story. The Committee points out that job gains slow down and warns of more risks to employment. Price rises also remain a worry. Even though the year-over-year CPI eased to 3.0% in September, it stays above the set 2% goal.

The current government shutdown worsens the situation. It cuts the supply of new economic data. With less real-time data, the Fed has more difficulty in their decision path.

Inflation and Tariff Pressures Continue

Price rises do not come only from changes in energy costs. Past tariffs still affect the market. These factors mix to form the challenge of keeping prices low while the economy grows.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

While Powell’s words add some doubt about the immediate rates, the overall view stays supportive. Ending the balance sheet cuts, steady economic growth, and a strong stock market keep a mild positive view for now.

For now, those who invest should watch job numbers and price changes closely. With less new information coming in over the next weeks, the decisions at the December meeting will depend on updated data and the views of the committee.

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About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and educator. With over forty years of experience in market analysis and trading, he studies chart patterns and price movement. He writes guides and educational content for traders in futures and stock markets.

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Disclaimer: The text above serves to inform and educate. It is not advice on buying or selling. Readers should do their own research and speak with qualified advisors before making any financial choices.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
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What’s the Outlook for the Federal Reserve’s Interest-rate Policy?

By Dennis Shen, Chair, Macroeconomic Council, Scope Group
Published: October 28, 2025

At the global financial scene, all eyes watch the Fed move next. Expectations rise for a careful easing of U.S. interest rates. Dennis Shen, chair of Scope Group’s Macroeconomic Council, breaks down the Fed’s decision and sorts today’s monetary forces.

Anticipated Rate Cut as Market Data Softens

Scope Ratings sees the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at Wednesday’s meeting. Many view the move as a "risk control" step. Recent labor data weakens, and core CPI numbers fall in September.

U.S. financial futures nearly fix the 25-point drop. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments match this view. The following press conference will soon give markets more clues.

The Road Ahead: More Cuts or a Hold?

A further 25-point cut by December sits in many minds, yet the end result is not fixed. If inflation climbs or if the soft labor reading lasts little, some Fed voices may prefer a hold after the next move.

Still, with softer voices holding sway at the Fed, stopping its tightening steps soon comes to mind.

A Divided Institution under Political Pressure

The Fed splits over the inflation target and how to act. Some FOMC members treat the goal as if it now sits at 3% instead of 2%. Their view shows hints from political calls and pressure from the White House for steeper cuts.

Other decision-makers point out inflation has stayed above 2% for more than four years. They warn that moving too fast may shake market trust and risk price stability over time.

Rising U.S. trade tariffs and ongoing price pressures add weight to a careful path. Some worry that extra political input might blunt the Fed’s true role and unsettle market trust in its fight against rising prices.

Economic Strength and Data Limits

The U.S. economy shows strong fight and resolve, yet questions grow about soft labor numbers. A current government shutdown stops the usual release of key numbers. This gap makes choice harder for the Fed.

In such a murky time, Fed voices seem set to stick to their September path until more facts come in. The central bank will use what is known to guide its next step.

US Inflation Remains High

Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and forecasts at Scope tell us that everyday consumer inflation stays well above the Fed’s 2% mark. This clear sign adds to the policy challenge.

Conclusion

The Fed stands at a point where data call for more ease, while risks of extra inflation and political input hang in the balance. The next rate drop seems near, but the path ahead rests on new facts, inflation trends, and shifting politics.

Investors and market watchers will seek signs in the Fed’s remarks and at the press meet to see if more ease comes or if caution wins.

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About the Author:
Dennis Y. Shen is the Chair of the Macroeconomic Council and Lead Global Economist at Scope Ratings, based in Berlin, Germany. The Macroeconomic Council joins credit views from sovereign, bank, corporate, and structured finance areas.

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For ongoing news on economic data and market forecasts, see FXEmpire’s economic calendar and market analysis sections.

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U.S. Inflation Drops to 3.0% in September, Casting Doubt on More Fed Rate Hikes

By James Hyerczyk | Published: October 24, 2025, 12:37 GMT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows U.S. inflation slowing in September. New numbers point to smaller rises in prices. This soft trend may shift views on Fed interest rate moves soon.

Inflation Growth Slows in September

The report shows the CPI grew by 0.3% in September. This is a bit less than the 0.4% rise seen in August. Annual inflation sits at 3.0%, which falls slightly from last month and misses most experts’ estimates.

The core CPI, which cuts out food and energy, rose by just 0.2% during the month. This is the smallest gain since June. The steady ease in numbers hints that price pressures may fall.

Energy Prices Push Up Headline Inflation

Energy prices helped raise the overall inflation rate. Gasoline climbed 4.1% compared to August. This push made the energy index rise by 1.5%. Yet, gasoline still stays 0.5% lower than a year ago. In contrast, energy services got 0.7% cheaper. Piped gas prices dropped by 1.2% and helped bring down some of the energy cost rises. Market watchers note that energy prices jump around and may sway upcoming inflation numbers.

Signs of Cooling in Main Areas

Core inflation’s 0.2% rise comes after two months of 0.3% gains. Numbers in housing and service areas now show slower gains. Shelter costs rose only 0.2%, and owners’ equivalent rent went up by 0.1%—the smallest rise since early 2021. Prices for motor vehicle insurance and used cars fell by 0.4%. Some areas, like medical care services, did see a 0.2% rise after a drop in the past month.

Food Inflation Remains Stable but High

Food prices crept up by 0.2% in September. This climb is lower than the 0.5% jump seen in August. The food-at-home index rose 0.3% as prices for nonalcoholic drinks and cereals went up. Dairy prices dropped 0.5%, which cut some of the increases, while eating out costs edged up by 0.1%. Over the last 12 months, food inflation holds at 3.1%, mainly driven by meat and drink prices.

Inflation Above Fed’s Target but on a Downward Path

The annual core inflation rate stays at 3.0%, well above the Fed’s 2% goal. This steady level means officials must keep a close eye on prices. The slower increase in monthly numbers may bring some relief to policy makers, who watch for signs of change.

The Federal Reserve will see the report as a positive sign, but not as a clear green light for a quick policy shift. Inflation pressure in areas like shelter and services remains.

Market Implications: Fed Rate Hike Fears Drop

Market players now see fewer signs for more Fed rate hikes after the softer-than-expected CPI numbers. This change puts pressure on the U.S. dollar in the short term, as traders expect rates to stay steady a while. Treasury yields may also see little rise as these views adjust.

Investors will watch future inflation reports and Fed talks to mark the course of the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

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About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a seasoned technical analyst and educator based in the U.S. He has more than 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading. He studies chart patterns and price moves and has written two books on technical analysis. He also has a long history with futures and stock markets.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should do their own research or seek a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Full money-growing playbook here: 
youtube.com/@the_money_grower