Tag Archive for: financial resilience

BMO CEO Urges Canada: Time for Action to Boost Economic Competitiveness and Trade

BMO CEO Voices Concern Over Canada’s Waning Focus on Economic Growth and Trade Barriers

By Naimul Karim | Published October 15, 2025

At the Toronto Global Forum on Wednesday, Darryl White, the CEO of Bank of Montreal, raised concerns about Canada’s slow move on economic growth. He pointed out that Canada talks much about strong economics. However, his speech stressed the need for clear, fast steps. Canada must cut internal trade barriers and build key infrastructure to keep growing. White warned that without real actions, Canada may lose ground, especially when U.S. tariffs challenge it.

A Call for Action Over Conversation

White said, "We need a little less conversation and a little more action." His words link removing trade barriers with speeding up infrastructure projects. These actions aim to fight the economic strain caused by U.S. tariffs. He noted that while talks about tariffs show Canada’s natural resources, the energy in these discussions is at risk. Without firm measures, the country may fall behind.

Tax Competitiveness a Key Concern

White also stressed problems with Canada’s tax rates. He said Canadian taxes are not as low as those in other countries. This fact does not get enough talk in policy circles. "Are we competitive in tone? Are we competitive on tax? I know the answer to that is absolutely not, and that’s not being talked about enough," he said. He explained that investors follow easy paths. Rhetoric on its own will not keep international capital in Canada. White warned that unless changes come, even those attracted by recent positive talks may soon leave.

Internal Trade Barriers: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Economy

White believes that cutting internal trade barriers may boost Canada’s economy. He argued that these actions could cancel out the shocks from uncertain trade talks under CUSMA. This agreement, which helps most Canadian exports to the U.S. avoid tariffs, will be renegotiated next year. White said, "Acting quickly within our own borders to enhance trade fluidity could overwhelm almost any adverse impacts from trade negotiations abroad." He noted that while dealings with the U.S. are on the right track, domestic reforms must come now.

Navigating a Shifting North American Trade Landscape

White discussed U.S. trade policy as well. He said that although the U.S. shows an "America First" approach, it does not mean complete isolation. He claims Canada can still play an important role. "Canadians might not like to hear it, but if Canada were second in an America-first world, this notion of North American advantage starts to become real," he said. Despite tension in the media and politics, both nations work hard to use their strengths.

BMO’s Strong Quarterly Performance Amid Economic Unease

During the talk, White noted BMO’s strong quarterly results. He recognized that major Canadian banks enjoyed a good report. Still, he warned that not all parts of the economy show the same strength. He mentioned that while investment banking and wealth management perform well, slow loan growth and rising credit issues on "Main Street" pose worries. White explained, "Earnings headlines are driven by averages, so caution is warranted. It’s like having your feet in the freezer and your head in the oven—you feel fine on average, but it’s pretty uncomfortable."

Looking Ahead

White is also worried about Canada’s unemployment rate, now at 7.1 percent. He sees labor market challenges that could affect the broader economy if ignored. As Canada prepares for tough trade talks and reforms inside its borders, White’s message is clear. The country must move from talk to action on tax issues and trade barriers. Quick, focused changes are needed for a strong economic future.

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The Resilience of Micro Condos: Why These Small Spaces Will Thrive Amid Market Challenges

Why Micro Condos Will Survive the Current Housing Market Downturn

By Garry Marr, Financial Post – October 15, 2025

Micro condos are small. They measure about 300 square feet. They sit in busy downtown cores like Toronto and Vancouver. Lately, buyers and investors find them less attractive. Yet one real estate expert says these small units will last. They will stay in the housing market as conditions change.

The Current State of Micro Condos

Micro condos were once in high demand. The real estate boom and the pandemic fueled a fast pace of building. Developers built many small units for city dwellers. They aimed to provide affordable homes with rich amenities.

Investors now step back. They see weak capital returns and uncertain rental income. First-time buyers also hesitate. High prices and steep interest rates push them away, even as rents drop. Families have shown little interest too. All these factors lower demand.

Buyer Behavior and Market Dynamics

Greg Zayadi, president of Rennie & Associates Realty Ltd., notes that many buyers pause at the closing stage. They often withdraw from deals. These units need smaller deposits. A small deposit makes it easier for buyers to exit if problems arise. Developers then face the cost of lost pre-sale deposits. This leaves many units unsold.

For example, Vancouver has 12,354 unsold micro condos in Q3. That is a 16% rise from the previous quarter. Prices fall between $950 and $1,200 per square foot. Now, values are near 20% below their peak. Zayadi thinks it may take two years to clear this stock.

Challenges for the Micro Condo Market

New micro condo projects face hard challenges. Builders now struggle to match price, size, and amenity needs. Buyers look for larger units at lower costs. They want homes that suit end-users rather than investors. Technical issues stop developers from combining several small units into one large unit. Plumbing, electrical work, and high renovation costs create obstacles.

Brad Burns, senior associate and design director at Gensler, shares a saving grace. In the student housing niche, micro and nano units work well. In Vancouver projects, units as small as 160 square feet serve students. They offer a full bath, a cooking space, and a work area. Furniture and shared tools add extra help.

The Future of Micro Condos

Micro condos lose their shine for some buyers and investors. Still, experts like Burns and Zayadi see a lasting role. For single people and students, tiny and smart units hold real value. Urban life and minimalism keep these condos in style.

Even if the market calls for larger and cheaper housing, micro condos will not vanish. They will change and serve specific groups. They remain part of the evolving housing scene.

Photo Caption: A 268-square-foot micro condo in Montreal’s Griffintown area includes a pull-out couch to maximize limited space. (Photo by John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette)

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UK Labor Market Deterioration Fuels Rate Cut Speculation as Sterling Slips

UK Labor Market Weakens, Sparking Speculation of Bank of England Rate Cuts as Sterling Falls

October 14, 2025 — The UK labor market shows signs of weakening. Recent numbers pull market interest toward a possible rate cut by the Bank of England in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sterling falls as market players see more economic uncertainty.

Key Labor Market Indicators Signal Softening Conditions

The unemployment rate in the UK climbs to 4.8% in August from 4.7% in July. This change points to a cooling market that could ease pressure on wages. In the same time, average hourly earnings (including bonuses) rise by 5% year-over-year for the three months ending in August. This faster wage growth may keep prices high and mix with other facts that the bank will weigh.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) share more details:

  • The number of payrolled employees drops by 10,000 in August and by 93,000 from August 2024 to August 2025.
  • Early numbers for September 2025 show another drop with 10,000 fewer payrolled employees.
  • Job vacancies fall by 9,000 from August to September 2025, marking the 39th straight month of fewer openings.
  • The claimant count goes up in September but stays lower than last year at 1.692 million.

Bank of England Rate Cut Views Grow Amid Mixed Signals

The mixed signals in the labor market stir thoughts of a softer monetary stance at the Bank of England. High unemployment may lead to less spending by consumers. That change might pull down inflation so a rate cut seems possible. Yet, strong wage gains may keep inflation above the target of 2% and make a cut harder.

In August, inflation steady at 3.8%, a rate that exceeds the bank’s target. With the rising wages, retail sales also move up by 0.5% in August. These points show that consumer demand still holds on even as prices rise.

BoE Monetary Policy Outlook

Sarah Greene, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, stated:

"I think that our monetary policy stance is still restrictive, and so I do think that Bank Rate is still on a downward path. But it’s less restrictive than it had been, and that’s a concern if you consider that inflation has been ticking up for the past year."

Her words show a careful view about a rate cut in the near future. Economists at ING now see a lower chance of a November cut. They look to early 2026 for a softer monetary policy. Their numbers show:

  • No more rate cuts in 2025.
  • A possible start of rate cuts in February 2026 with up to three cuts during next year.

Market Reaction: Sterling Under Pressure

After the labor market numbers came out, the GBP/USD pair wavered. Before the report, the pair fell to $1.33227, then swept up to $1.33521, and finally dropped to $1.33075 afterward. By Tuesday morning on October 14, GBP/USD rested at about $1.33079, down 0.18%. This move shows that investors hold back and lean toward a softer policy at the BoE.

Outlook for the Pound and Upcoming Economic Data

Analysts now watch upcoming UK economic releases. They look to the GDP report on October 16, inflation numbers on October 22, and retail sales with the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index on October 24. These figures will shape thoughts on the bank’s next steps.

If more signs of a slowing economy show, the pound may drop further. It could test the area of $1.3250 against the US dollar. A strong economic report, on the other hand, may boost the pair toward $1.35. Investors and experts will keep a close watch. They then decide how the soft labor market and steady wage growth will guide the path of the Bank of England in the coming months.

About the Author

Bob Mason brings more than 28 years of experience in finance. He works with currencies, commodities, alternative assets, and global equities. His work mainly tracks markets in Europe and Asia.

For ongoing insights and market news, stay tuned to official BoE announcements and new UK economic reports.

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Navigating Trade Winds: China’s Export Surge and Its Impact on APEC Summit Talks

China Export Boom Sets Stage for High-Stakes Trade Talks at APEC Summit

By Bob Mason | Published: October 14, 2025

China’s exports soared this September. Exports grew 8.3% over last year. This growth passed August’s 4.4% rise. U.S. tariffs stayed in place. Imports climbed 7.4%, too. These facts point to strong local demand and a trade pace that stays firm heading into Q4. ### Export Realignment Mitigating U.S. Tariff Impact

Data from CN Wire shows exports from January to September 2025 grew across many partners. ASEAN saw a 9.6% increase. The European Union grew by 5.2%. Exports to South Korea rose 2.0% and those to Japan climbed 5.9%. Yet, exports to the United States fell 14.9%. China shifts its exports to Africa, ASEAN countries, the EU, and Japan. This shift fills the gap left by a drop in U.S. demand.

Brian Tycangco at Stansberry Research said:
"China’s trade bounced back in September. Exports jumped 8.3% and imports by 7.4%. The trade surplus shrank a bit. President Trump’s trade war does not harm China’s export work because sellers now find new markets for products."

The World Bank now predicts China’s 2025 GDP will grow by 4.8%—up from April’s forecast of 4.0% and near the official 5% target.

Soybeans and Rare Earths Highlight Trade Sensitivities

Trade talks now focus on soybeans and rare earth elements. Soybean imports hit a record 12.87 million metric tons in September. This result may open room for progress in farm trade discussions.

In the week before China’s Golden Week, President Trump said Beijing cut back on soybean purchases to use them as a tool in talks. He spoke up in support of local farmers but did not add new tariffs then.

China then tightened controls on rare earth exports. These materials serve high-tech production. Chinese officials said there was no complete ban and that civilian licenses stay available. Still, shipments dropped 31% in September and 11% so far this year. These drops add to trade strains.

Domestic Implications: Labor Market and Consumption

Domestic issues mix with trade gains. In September, Chinese manufacturers cut staff for the third time in four months. Rising wages might spark more consumer spending. Unemployment climbed to 5.3% in August from 5.0% in June. Retail sales grew 3.4% in August compared to 4.8% in June. If export strength holds, companies may hire more and spending could rise—a change seen as key to China’s recovery.

Non-U.S. Trade Accelerating

China now moves exports beyond the United States. Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book noted that shipments to the U.S. dropped 27% for six straight months, while exports to other markets jumped 14.8%—their fastest gain since March 2023. Exports to Africa surged 56% and those to Latin America rebounded by 15.2%. This mix shields China’s trade efforts from U.S. tariffs and binds it tighter to global markets.

Market Response and Outlook Ahead of APEC Summit

Easing trade strains lifted mainland stock markets on October 14. The CSI 300 index rose by 0.89%, and the Shanghai Composite increased by 0.68%. Both indices approached their 2025 highs. News of a possible U.S.-China trade deal and steady growth has pushed gains. Year-to-date figures show the CSI 300 up about 17.9% and the Shanghai Composite by 16.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 29%. Still, analysts point out that trade frictions add risks and keep global markets alert.

Looking Forward: Trade Talks at APEC Summit

At the APEC summit, trade talks will focus on key issues. Strong data gives China a firmer stance. Topics such as soybean trade and rare earth export rules are on the agenda. Markets and policymakers now watch to see if talks will ease strains or stir further issues. What happens next may change global trade patterns and economic forecasts in the coming months.

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Slovakia’s Struggle: Navigating Fiscal Consolidation Amid Economic Slowdown and Austerity Fatigue

Slovakia Faces Growing Fiscal Consolidation Fatigue, Threatening Medium-term Fiscal Sustainability

October 13, 2025 | By Alessandra Poli, Sovereign and Public Sector Analyst, Scope Ratings

Slovakia faces a heavy challenge. Its growth slows as fiscal plans tire the public. The government set a third fiscal plan for 2026 to cut the budget gap in a weak economy. Doubt grows as outside pressures and strict rules mix and hurt safety.

Ambitious Consolidation Amid Slowing Growth

In late September, the government approved a fiscal plan worth about EUR 2.7 billion. This sum nears 2% of GDP. The plan comes after similar steps in 2024 and 2025. Those steps tried to reverse past losses from softer budgets.

Slovakia’s export-based economy meets headwinds. US tariffs rise and key European partners slow. Scope Ratings now predicts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025. Before, the rate was 1.5%. In 2026, growth is expected at 1.2% instead of 1.7%. This rate lags behind Poland at 3.1%, Slovenia at 1.8%, and the Czech Republic at 2.3%.

Fiscal Measures and Their Economic Implications

The new plan focuses on revenue rules. The government makes personal income taxes steeper. It also raises contributions for health and social funds. This mix aims to cut the fiscal gap from about 5% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% the next year. Tax moves may lower local spending and business activity.

Some rules are short term. The plan cancels two public holidays for now. It freezes wages temporarily and stops inflation updates on extra pension pay. Because these moves are brief, new cuts might be needed later.

On spending, the government did not explain EUR 1.3 billion in planned cuts. Many savings may come by ending energy subsidies worth EUR 435 million set earlier. Other cuts will likely hit public administration and local budgets while keeping pensions and social aid safe for those in need.

Risk of a Fiscal Consolidation Trap

Slow growth and tax-heavy plans may trap the economy. This trap can slow growth so far that more cuts become needed. Scope Ratings sees public debt growing from 59.3% in 2024 to about 69% by 2030. Military spending might also rise. Slovakia must now reach NATO’s target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035. This is a jump from 2% in 2024. Soon, the politics of the 2027 elections may also limit further cuts.

Looking Ahead

Slovakia has a long road to keep its budget safe. The government must balance hard plans with outside pressures and local needs. Watching fiscal steps and the economy remains key as Slovakia moves through hard times ahead.

About the Author:
Alessandra Poli is an Analyst in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings, with a focus on ratings and research for public-sector borrowers.

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China’s Exports Surge 8.3% Defying Tariffs: How It Impacts Global Markets and Currency Dynamics

China’s Exports Rise Sharply by 8.3% in September, Defying Tariff Pressures; Aussie Dollar Gains While Hong Kong Stocks Dip

October 13, 2025 – By Bob Mason

China’s export industry shows strength this September. Shipments jumped by 8.3% from last year. That jump marks the fastest rise in half a year. The increase eases fears linked to tariffs set by the Trump administration. Strong trade numbers pushed up the Aussie dollar. Meanwhile, stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China fell as US–China tension stayed high.

Robust Export Growth Exceeds Expectations

Officials released new data on Monday. Exports climbed 8.3% in September. In August, exports had risen only 4.4%. Experts had expected a 6% rise. Imports also grew by 7.4%. In August, imports had grown by just 1.3%. New data shows that trade is moving fast. The rise also fits with other proof from manufacturing. The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index went up to 51.2 from 50.5 in August. New export orders increased for the first time since March. This shows that makers are switching shipments away from US demand amid tariff disputes.

Market Reactions: Currency Strength and Equity Market Caution

The trade report set off mixed market moves. The Aussie dollar rose. It went from $0.65246 before the data to a high near $0.65292, and closed at $0.65278—up about 0.83%. Before the report, it had already gained 0.79%. The close economic ties between Australia and China make this shift clear. China accounts for roughly one-third of Australia’s exports, which matters a lot. In contrast, stock markets did not match the strength. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2.42% to 25,655 in Monday’s morning session. Mainland indices fell too: the CSI 300 lost 1.27%, and the Shanghai Composite slid 0.98%. Investor worry stayed high following last week’s changes amid trade talks.

Outlook: Inflation Data, Trade Tensions, and the APEC Summit in Focus

Market watchers keep a close gaze on US–China trade talks. They focus on a meeting scheduled from October 31 to November 1 under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation banner. Leaders from the US and China may meet. They might show progress or hint at more disputes. Traders now also wait for China’s inflation report set for October 15. Economists see a slowdown in deflation for September. This news may boost market risk and push up interest in risk-sensitive assets like the Aussie dollar and regional stocks. If trade tension grows, markets may react by dropping further. If disputes cool off, the mood among investors may improve.

Summary

  • China’s exports grew 8.3% in September, the fastest in six months.
  • Imports rose by 7.4%, far above expectations.
  • The Aussie dollar climbed on strong trade data from China.
  • Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock indices fell amid US–China trade tensions.
  • Upcoming inflation data and the APEC meeting will guide market moves.

About the Author
Bob Mason brings over 28 years of financial market experience, in currencies, commodities, and global equities, with a focus on European and Asian markets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.

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Unlocking Extra Space: A Smart Strategy to Expand Your Home Without Moving

Here’s One Way to Increase the Size of Your House Without Moving

By Garry Marr, Financial Post, October 10, 2025

If you fear moving to a larger home, try a different plan. Many Canadians shed clutter and use self-storage. The housing market now drops prices by near 20% in some parts. The economy may stall, so people rethink how they use their rooms and things.

Decluttering: More Than Just Tidying Up

This trend is not about body shaming. It cuts the extra load of junk in your home. Most people own basements, garages, or spare rooms that hold items rarely used. Experts say these spaces hide "treasure" that one later sells for little, donates, or throws away. They warn that using living space as storage may cost more than paying for an outside option.

Home prices in cities such as Toronto top about $1,000 per square foot. Money spent on keeping unused items inside adds up quickly.

Self-Storage: The Thriving Industry

Here, the self-storage industry steps in. Canadians now use it more, nearing Americans who have almost twice as much storage per person. Ontario Municipal Property Assessment Corporation said Ontario has 7.3 million square feet of self-storage. That area equals roughly 2,200 NHL ice rinks. The space grew by 11% from 2020 in just three years. It does not slow much even if the housing market does.

Companies like 1-800-GOT-JUNK? now run over 175 franchises in Canada, the United States, and Australia. They help people downsize and sort their items. James Alisch, Chief Revenue and Operating Officer, notes that many Baby Boomers now downsize. Families then figure out what to keep, store, or toss.

Why Canadians Are Choosing Storage

Many factors drive the surge in self-storage:

• Homes now offer smaller spaces with fewer garages or basements.
• Higher home costs force better space use.
• Events like marriage, children, or downsizing add storage needs.
• Economic doubts block moves while boost storage needs.

Danny Freedman, Interim CEO of Forum Make Space, leads a firm that runs about 28 storage centers in Canada. He notes that a pandemic once raised use, and even after a small drop, demand stays high. New storage builds cost more. This fact lifts rental rates.

The Hidden Cost of Keeping Untamed Clutter

Many homes lose room use when they turn a space into storage. When you compare the cost of owning or renting a storage unit with lost room value, the storage cost can seem a good deal. Decluttering and using outside storage can make your house feel larger. This plan works without the stress or price of moving.

A Resilient Market

Investors now back self-storage. They see it as a safe bet amid long-lasting life trends. Colliers International says that even if new supply changes rates a bit, buyer trust remains strong. Growth in storage comes from steady life changes. This trend goes beyond simple economic ups and downs.

Final Thoughts: Declutter to Expand Your Living Space

For many Canadians, tight living spaces make life hard. Decluttering with self-storage can add extra room. Moving is one way to gain space, but smart use of what you own can work, too. It saves money and avoids the pain of relocating.

If you feel stuck with too much clutter or do not know where to start, many companies help remove junk and guide you in sorting your things.

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Boosting Productivity: Bank of Canada’s Rogers Advocates for Competition in the Financial Sector

Bank of Canada’s Carolyn Rogers: Competition in Canadian Financial Sector Key to Boosting Productivity

Toronto, October 9, 2025 – Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, said competition in Canada’s financial firms can boost productivity. She spoke at the Canadian Club in Toronto. In her speech, Rogers linked ideas closely. Each word connects directly to the next, so the message stays tight and clear.

Productivity Slump Poses Urgent Challenge

Canada’s productivity has stalled. Rogers calls this an emergency. New data shows a 1% drop in productivity in the second quarter of 2025. This drop is the largest in three years. It comes as trade tensions with the United States rise. Rogers links the drop to the need for reforms.

She explained, “Higher productivity won’t make Canada immune to U.S. trade policy, but it would help buffer the effects of tariffs.” Rogers adds, “This is the clearest path to boosting real wages, and it helps make life more affordable.”

Competition as a Driver of Innovation and Efficiency

Rogers says competition forces firms to work fast and smart. It makes them invest in new ideas and improve services. She uses a hockey metaphor: “You always skate a little harder in the game than you do in practice. And when the game starts, the tougher the opponent, the harder you skate.”

Today, six large banks hold about 93% of all banking assets. This strong hold brings stability. Still, strong ties can slow productivity, limit innovation, and reduce consumer choices. Rogers lets us know, “Many argue that this level of concentration has clear negative impacts.”

Emerging Reforms Aim to Enhance Contestability

Looking ahead, Rogers sees hope in new reforms. Regulators and technologists want to open up the financial field. One plan is open banking. Open banking gives consumers more control over their data. This change connects banks and buyers more closely and fairly.

Another plan is the Real-Time Rail project. This project will update payment systems so firms can send money instantly. Rogers points to a study that sees more than $3 billion in efficiency gains in five years. She builds the idea on a clear link between instant payments and more economic strength. “The experiences of countries with instant payment systems show that these systems have real benefits,” Rogers said.

Balancing Competition with Stability and Inclusion

Rogers also warns that more contest does not mean no rules. Too much competition risks underinvestment and financial harm. It may also expose vulnerable groups to risky practices. Rogers stresses, “We need to ensure that while we encourage contestability in finance, transport, telecoms, and energy, we do not sacrifice stability or equal access.”

Global Regulatory Context

Rogers notes that other nations also shape their rules. The United States is cutting back on financial sector rules. In the United Kingdom, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said regulation can hold businesses back. These signals point to a worldwide trend. Each idea is linked clearly to the next, with short connections that show how change can build fresh strength.

Conclusion: Embracing Competition for Economic Growth

In her closing words, Rogers told policymakers and leaders to “lean into” competition. This means taking steps that connect competition directly with stronger productivity, better wages, and a solid economy. She shows that even with tradeoffs, a clear and close link between ideas leads to innovation and growth.

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Resilience Amidst Challenges: China Stocks Surge Despite Weak Consumer Spending and Trade Tensions

China Stocks Rally Despite Soft Consumption Data and Rising Trade Tensions

By Bob Mason | Published: October 9, 2025, 03:43 GMT+00:00

China had a long Golden Week holiday. Soft data on spending and rising US–China trade tensions mark the scene. When markets reopened after the break, Chinese stocks jumped to new heights.

Weak Consumption Data Challenges Economic Optimism

China’s Golden Week shows a softer pace in spending. Passenger trips from October 1 to 5 grew 5.4% from last year. This rise is slower compared to the 7.9% climb seen during the May Labor Day holiday. The result creates a worry over local buying power. The government set a goal of 5% GDP growth for 2025. Research from Julius Baer, cited by CN Wire, points to a roughly 10% rise in domestic flight prices by year-end. The price move reflects a bid to hold prices steady instead of a rise in demand. Online sales managed steady shifts in home appliances and smart gadgets. Citibank analysts note that Chinese consumers spend slowly during the holidays.

Labor Market Pressure Weighs on Consumer Sentiment

Labor market data shows mounting pressure. Unemployment edged from 5.2% in July to 5.3% in August. Youth unemployment climbed to 18.6%. These changes lower consumer hope and slow spending. Companies face higher input costs, tariff stress, and soft prices. Firms cut staff and slow wage growth. These factors limit household budgets and the overall recovery pace.

Economic Outlook: Mixed Signals but Upward GDP Revisions

Forecasts for China’s growth mix good news with concerns. The World Bank raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8% from 4.0% earlier. Growth in 2026 is expected to hit around 4.2%. Some see weaker external demand and a smaller role for fiscal support next year. Analysts expect Beijing to aim for a 4.5%–5.0% GDP target in the next five-year plan, to be set at the Fourth Plenary Session. UBS economist Ning Zhang notes that future policy may focus on more consumer support and social benefits. Changes in technology and industry will shape the path ahead.

Rising Trade Tensions Ahead of the APEC Summit

Trade tensions between the US and China grew during Golden Week. US lawmakers pushed to bar more chip-making tool exports to China. Their aim is to slow China’s progress toward chip self-sufficiency and to challenge low-priced exports. China responded by setting export controls on tech linked to rare earth mining and magnet making. The new rules, effective December 1, require export permits for items with dual uses. These steps show Beijing’s response ahead of talks. The APEC Summit, set for October 31 to November 1, will bring leaders like President Trump and President Xi together. A deal could boost market mood, and more tension might lower investor trust.

Market Reaction: Equities Surge to New Highs

Weak economic signals and rising trade risk did not hold back the market. When trading resumed, the CSI 300 index climbed 1.17% in the morning. It hit its best level since January 2022. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.75%, reaching a new peak in the decade. Year-to-date, the CSI 300 gained 19.53% and the Shanghai Composite saw a 16.80% rise. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped 33.65% in 2025. Investors hope that new policy steps and calmer trade will boost the market further. Experts warn that a failure in US–China talks or weak policy measures could bring added risk.

Looking Ahead: Key Data and Policy Developments

Market watchers will monitor upcoming economic numbers and policy news from Beijing. They will focus on the outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session and the details in the five-year plan. The APEC Summit is set as a key event. Decisions there may shape forecasts and market paths for 2026. —

In summary, while weak consumer data and a soft labor market may slow local spending, China’s stocks stay upbeat on hopes of new policy support and progress in trade talks. The link between domestic management and world trade rules will shape China’s near future.

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Navigating the Stablecoin Storm: Why Canada Must Act Now to Protect Its Financial Future

John Ruffolo Warns Canada: The Stablecoin Storm Is Coming and We Can’t Afford to Snooze

By John Ruffolo, Special to Financial Post
Published October 8, 2025

Canada once relied on steel, oil, and lumber. Today, digital rails carry data, ideas, and money. These rails now traverse invisible networks. American firms build most of them. Canada must act soon; else its economy will depend on U.S.-built rails and rules.

The U.S. Leads the Stablecoin Surge

On July 18, the United States passed the Genius Act. This law backs stablecoins with the U.S. dollar. These coins tie one-to-one with U.S. Treasury securities. They now enter mainstream finance. U.S. stablecoins own 99 percent of the market.

Every stablecoin use helps finance U.S. government debt. Every payment feeds U.S. banks. Every transaction moves Canadian data across the border.

Why Canada Must Pay Attention

Stablecoins now process more transactions than Visa and Mastercard. Their use brings several risks for Canadians:

  • Capital Flight: A shift of only 5 percent of Canadian bank deposits—around $135 billion—into U.S. stablecoins may drop domestic lending by about $675 billion. This loss will hit essential loans for homes, small businesses, and provincial infrastructure.
  • Rising Borrowing Costs: Fewer deposits mean lower demand for Government of Canada bonds. Ottawa might then need to offer higher interest rates.
  • Monetary Policy Constraints: More U.S. digital dollars in Canadian hands can weaken the Bank of Canada’s control over money supply and interest rates.
  • Sovereignty Risks: Relying on U.S.-issued stablecoins lets American regulators freeze Canadian company funds held in digital wallets. This move can harm Canada’s financial independence.

Outdated Canadian Regulation Hampers Progress

Canadian regulators treat fiat-backed stablecoins as securities. This view is like judging a Tesla as if it were a horse-drawn carriage. Using this lens pushes real stablecoin issuers to leave Canada. Canadians then depend on foreign—mainly American—stablecoin products.
In contrast, economies in Europe, Singapore, the U.K., South Korea, and the U.S. treat stablecoins as payment tools. This treatment fits their true role and sparks innovation.

A Three-Point Plan for Canadian Prosperity

Canada must move quickly with these steps:

  1. Regulatory Clarity: Change the law to view fiat-backed stablecoins as payment tools rather than securities. Set rules for one-to-one backing with Canadian dollars and Government of Canada bonds. Use clear controls like bankruptcy-remote custody, daily reserve checks, independent audits, and allow OSFI-regulated banks to issue tokenized deposits and Canadian stablecoins. This move keeps Canadian yield and valuable financial data at home.
  2. Financial Sovereignty: Keep reserves, servers, and managing systems only in Canada. Let OSFI-regulated Canadian banks hold these stablecoin assets. Handle disputes under Canadian law. This rule cuts off the reach of foreign regulators.
  3. Adoption and Interoperability: Build digital payment rails that work with current banking apps and systems like the Real-Time Rail. Keep fees low to attract merchants and consumers. The federal government should lead by example. It can accept Canadian stablecoins for tax payments, rebates, and fees. This step will grow public trust.

Looking Ahead: Building a Secure Payment Future

This call is not about chasing trends or fueling speculation. It is a call to build a Canadian payment rail that is as secure and clear as cash. The rail must be rooted in trust, transparency, and Canadian law. These steps are vital. They help Canada compete in a digital world and stop foreign powers from taking control.

John Ruffolo, founder of tech-focused Maverix Private Equity in Toronto, warns that Canada must face the “stablecoin storm” at its doorstep. Its leaders must craft a strong plan before it is too late.

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