Tag Archive for: Inflation

FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed’s Inflation Concerns: What This Means for Markets and Traders

FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Members Expect Higher Inflation Ahead

August 20, 2025 – FXEmpire

The latest FOMC minutes of the Federal Reserve give key views on inflation and the economy. Fed members see inflation rising soon. They point to higher tariffs as a cause of the change.

Tariff Effects Becoming More Evident

The minutes show that tariffs affect the economy more each day. Recent data shows goods get more expensive. Fed members see that price changes for consumers will not come at once. They think the change will grow slowly. Business actions, such as building up stock, add to the delay. Firms have raised inventories before tariffs change. This stock buildup and slow shifts in input costs make price rises occur bit by bit.

Who Bears the Tariff Costs?

Fed members see that American businesses and buyers pay most of the extra costs. Foreign exporters cover only a small share. This mix makes it likely that companies pass on higher costs to buyers step by step.

Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Risks

The minutes show that uncertainty about the economy stays high. Some members worry that inflation might go above their current views. These risks could make rules stick tighter if prices keep rising. Investors now watch more closely for any move in policy.

Market Reactions: Stocks and Currency Movements

After the minutes came out, markets reacted:

  • The S&P 500 Index dropped toward the 6375 mark. Traders read the news as a sign that the Fed will keep a strict focus on rising prices. They worry that rate cuts in September might be postponed.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index made a small bounce after dropping in an earlier session. Traders watch the dollar, especially with fresh political news coming in.
  • Gold prices stayed near $3345 per ounce. Since gold reacts to moves in the dollar, traders will keep an eye on how the currency shifts.

Looking Ahead

The minutes show that the Fed keeps a close watch on inflation risks from tariffs. Traders will study upcoming data and Fed news for clearer signs on how inflation and rates may move. For more details on economic events and how they could change the market, watch the economic calendar and related analysis.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with over 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. His work focuses on both short-term and long-term market trends.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is for educational and research purposes and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Trading involves risk, and individuals should do their own research before making financial decisions.

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Crude Oil Supply Plummets: Inventories Fall by 6 Million Barrels as WTI Tests $62.50 Milestone

Crude Inventories Drop by 6 Million Barrels; WTI Oil Tests the $62.50 Level

By Vladimir Zernov | Published August 20, 2025, 14:43 GMT+00:00

On August 20, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration set out its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report shows that crude stocks fell by 6 million barrels in one week. Analysts had guessed a drop of only 1.3 million barrels. This report ties a steep loss in stocks with tighter supply.

Inventory Levels and Market Impact

Crude stocks now sit 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline numbers dropped by 2.7 million barrels when forecasters saw a loss of 0.8 million barrels. Distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, climbed by 2.3 million barrels.

Crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day. This number is 423,000 barrels lower than the previous period. The four-week average comes to 6.4 million barrels per day. These figures show a slow drop in incoming oil.

Domestic Production and Strategic Reserves

Domestic oil production went up. It moved from 13.327 million barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels. This rise shows that U.S. production stays steady. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew too, from 403.2 million barrels to 403.4 million barrels. The reserve now adds oil at a slow pace.

Price Movements: WTI and Brent

WTI crude oil prices stayed nearly the same after the report came out. Traders now work to keep prices above $62.50 per barrel. Across the ocean, Brent crude also fights to hold above $66.50 per barrel. The drop in inventories helps keep oil prices up. Some traders worry that extra production from OPEC+ nations may dump too much oil into the market. This mix keeps traders careful.

Outlook

Lower crude inventories and steady production give a positive sign to the oil market. Yet the chance of too much supply may slow price rises. Traders keep a close watch on new supply data and global events that may shift prices. For more on economic impacts and upcoming market events, check the economic calendar.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with more than 18 years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, and commodities. He works on both short- and long-term forecasts.

This article shows the latest data as of August 20, 2025, and is meant only for information. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment moves.

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UK Inflation Surges, Reshaping BoE Rate Expectations: Will GBP/USD Break $1.35?

UK Inflation Uptick Clouds Bank of England Outlook, GBP/USD Eyes $1.35 Breakout

By Bob Mason | Updated: August 20, 2025, 12:29 GMT+00:00

UK inflation data now adds doubt to the Bank of England’s future plans. Inflation moved higher in July, a sign that the central bank’s careful view faces more challenges amid mixed signals. In currency markets, traders watch the British pound against the US dollar as it nears a key resistance at $1.35. ### UK Inflation Rises in July, Challenging Rate Cut Expectations

In July, inflation in the UK stepped up. The Consumer Prices Index climbed to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.6% in June. Core inflation, which leaves out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, moved to 3.8% from 3.6%. Monthly, prices went up 0.1% after a 0.3% rise in June.

The Office for National Statistics shows that when owner-occupier housing costs are added, the CPIH reached 4.2% over twelve months, a small rise from 4.1%. Airfares pushed transport costs up, which acted against lower costs for housing and household services.

Core CPIH year-on-year fell slightly to 4.2% from 4.3%, while price rises in services grew to 5.0% from 4.7%. These numbers show that inflation problems continue across different parts of the economy, making it hard for the BoE to balance price control with growth.

Economic Context: Mixed Signals from GDP and Labor Market

Recent data from GDP and the labor market show mixed results. The UK economy grew by 0.4% in June after a 0.1% drop in May. Second-quarter GDP grew 0.3%, a slower pace compared to 0.7% in the first quarter. This slow growth raises worries about a stagnant economy even with high inflation.

Data on wages show that average earnings, with bonuses, moved up by 4.6% year-on-year in June, down from 5% in May. This soft wage growth may lower consumer demand and stir inflation concerns.

James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said, "Overall, Q2 GDP was better than many feared. Growth has held up okay this year and Rachel Reeves will stress the UK’s good spot among the G7. But stagnation remains a big problem with the risk of a lower growth forecast looming over the Autumn Budget."

BoE’s Monetary Policy Outlook Clouded by Inflation and Growth Dynamics

Last week, the Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%. The vote was 5-4 and showed deep differences over inflation risks and wage trends. The rise in July inflation lowers the chance of another cut in September, even if some experts see easing later in 2025. ING Economics doubts that the BoE will change plans because of better GDP figures. One expert noted, "This might boost those who favor fewer rate cuts now. But upcoming inflation and jobs data will matter more." Analysts point out that GDP in the second half of the year may show weaker growth since the labor market faces more strain, with payrolled jobs dropping in eight of nine recent months.

The dates and size of future rate cuts will depend on coming inflation and employment reports. For now, the July figures push policymakers to be cautious about fast cuts.

GBP/USD Reacts to Inflation Data, Eyes $1.35 Breakout

Currency traders responded quickly to the new inflation data. Before the figures, GBP/USD hit a high of $1.34927 before falling to $1.34616. After the report, the pair slipped to $1.34757, then quickly rose to $1.34980. As of midday on August 20, the value held steady at about $1.34907. This movement shows that traders now do not expect an immediate rate cut by the BoE.

Market eyes now turn to August’s flash private sector PMIs due on August 21. Since UK services account for more than 70% of GDP, a clear drop in the Services PMI might push a rate cut in November. Signals from input prices, output prices, and employment in the sector will be watched closely for hints that inflation is easing.

Lower prices and cuts in jobs in services could push the BoE toward a softer stance. This may put pressure on the British pound.

Outlook

The new inflation figures mark ongoing price challenges in the UK even as growth slows. With this uncertain path, market watchers will track new economic data to see what the BoE does next and how GBP/USD handles the next test near $1.35. For live updates on BoE plans, UK inflation, and currency forecast news, follow FXEmpire’s real-time analysis and coverage.

About the Author

Bob Mason has over 28 years of work in the financial world. He has worked with global rating agencies and multinational banks. He now focuses on currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities with a focus on European and Asian markets.

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Navigating Home Depot’s Mixed Results: What to Watch in Today’s Dow Jones Forecast

Dow Jones Forecast: Home Depot Shares Drop Pre-Market — Key Factors for Traders to Watch

By James Hyerczyk | Updated August 19, 2025, 12:35 GMT+00:00

Home Depot (HD) shares fell about 1.8% in pre-market trade. The stock settled near $387.53 after the company released earnings that did not meet Wall Street expectations for a second quarter in a row. Home Depot missed its earnings and revenue goals but kept its full-year forecast. The firm now shows a firm pressure amid hard times in housing. Traders and investors now watch the stock and each new detail of the company to learn what might come.

Earnings and Revenue Miss for Second Straight Quarter

In its fiscal second quarter, Home Depot posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.68, which came in just below the expected $4.71. Its revenue reached $45.28 billion, a bit under the expected $45.36 billion mark. The numbers fell short but still marked almost a 5% rise in revenue from last year.

Store sales, an important measure, grew by 1.0% around the world and 1.4% in the U.S. This rise was the second year-over-year uptick in the last eleven quarters. July saw more strength with sales up by 3.3%, hinting at late-quarter improvement despite overall challenges. This quarter is the first time since 2014 that the firm has missed earnings and revenue targets in the same period. This shortfall may affect how investors see the stock.

Shift Toward Professional Customers Drives Strategy

Home Depot now faces hard times in its do-it-yourself (DIY) area. Homeowners hesitate to start large projects, showing what the company calls a “deferral mindset.” The firm now puts more care into its pro-customer area to balance the low DIY activity.

This change shows in its recent moves. The company bought SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to buy GMS for $4.3 billion. Both firms sell to trade professionals. CFO Richard McPhail said that pro customers now make up about 55% of the store’s total sales. The focus on the pro market now helps the firm be more steady as store sales by regular customers stay low.

Margins and Pricing Power Under Scrutiny

The total count of customer deals dropped to 446.8 million from 451 million in the previous year’s quarter. At the same time, the average ticket size went up to $90.01. This change means Home Depot still holds some power to set prices in today’s market. The company has not passed new import tariffs to its buyers because most shipments came before these duties began.

Investors will now keep a keen eye on how tariff strains and rising costs may affect margins in future quarters—especially if talks on tariffs slow or new duties come in.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

On a chart, Home Depot’s stock now moves back toward key support marks. The first support lies around $382.92 to $376.81. This range meets the 200-day moving average and sits in the middle of the June to August trade range. If the stock drops below this zone, it may test further support near the 100-day moving average, about $372.30. On the up side, resistance seems to live near $402.79 to $407.82. Given the mixed quarter and the need to balance the growth in the pro area with the missed estimates, the stock may now trade in this range for a while.

Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism Amid Mixed Results

Home Depot’s shift to focus on trade professionals fits the current housing market. Still, missing the earnings and revenue targets shakes some confidence. With regular sales showing some growth and the average ticket size up, some investors may see the lower share price as a chance to buy.

For now, until the housing market or mortgage rates change a lot, the stock may not see a strong rise. Traders should keep a close watch on how margins, tariff effects, and pro-customer growth shape the stock’s path in the coming months.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and teacher. He holds more than 40 years of experience in market analysis and trade. He has written two books on technical study and follows both futures and stock markets closely.

For current market trends and economic events, please view a full economic calendar and related market guides.

Disclaimer: The material above is for information and teaching only. It should not be seen as financial advice. Investors should do their own study or talk with a financial advisor before any trade decisions.

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China’s Economic Crossroads: Will Stimulus Propel Growth or Invite a Stall?

China Outlook: Stimulus or Stall? China’s Next Moves Loom Over Markets and Growth

By Bob Mason | Published: August 19, 2025, 01:07 GMT

Global markets and investors keep a close eye on China’s path. Key questions grow as Beijing may use new stimulus measures to keep growth alive or allow a stall that could harm markets. Trade issues mix with soft economic signs and cautious investor moods. These factors add doubt for the world’s second-largest economy.

Trade Truce Extended Yet Fragile

On August 11, the United States and China extended a break in their trade war for 90 days. This choice stops a full fight for now. Both sides stay quiet on deep trade talks or changes in tariff ideas. Tariffs remain on Chinese goods at about 55% when sent to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. goods face around 10% when entering China.

This state forms a calm that is weak. Experts see risk if each side shifts its position soon.

Rare Earth Exports Signal Underlying Tensions

China now holds back on rare earth exports. These metals help many tech and defense jobs run. Beijing warns firms not to stockpile these resources. It cuts export amounts to stop foreign hoarding.

The China Beige Book shows that China uses rare earth exports to hold more power. This step shows Beijing wants to keep its bargaining strength.

Declining Shipping Volumes Reflect Slowing Trade

Data from shipments marks a drop in trade between China and the U.S. The Kobeissi Letter tells us that container ship trips from China reached a low in 15 days, the lowest in two years. Shipping numbers fell nearly 40% last month. This drop happens even with the tariff break, which shows tariffs still slow trade movements.

Economic Indicators Signal Slowing Growth

China had a strong second quarter. Still, in July, signs of slowing appear. Industrial output rose 5.7% from last year, down from 6.8% in June. The S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, below the neutral mark of 50. This shift shows shrinking output and fewer new export orders.

Retail sales only grew 3.7% in July, down from 4.8% in June. Policy actions aimed to boost local spending, yet a weak housing market keeps consumer mood low. Rising costs in factories force firms to cut wages and staff. These trends suggest challenges that may test Beijing’s goal of a 5% GDP rise in 2025. Stock Markets Show Tentative Gains Amid Fragile Confidence

Mainland China’s stock markets have made small gains. The CSI 300 peaked at a 10‑month high, and the Shanghai Composite reached a 10‑year top in mid‑August. Both still trail all‑time highs, which points to cautious hope.

By contrast, U.S. markets kept rising. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 set record marks, helped by strong July retail data. Canadian economist Hao Hong says that a rising market is needed to lift household trust here—a point that Beijing knows well.

Divergent Views on China’s Economic Path

Economists have split opinions on China’s near‑term future. Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, notes that a strong first half makes a 5% GDP target seem possible. To reach the target, the economy must average nearly 4.7% growth in the rest of the year. This growth looks possible with a fiscal push and a bit of softer money policy.

Yet, Garcia Herrero warns that current gains may not hold without stronger actions. The service sector must get a push as well. Even with trade risks and falling prices, the Chinese government can use policy tools to back growth if needed. Natixis now expects GDP to reach 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. Strong Equity Rally Despite Uncertainty

Amid this uncertain time, stocks in China and Hong Kong did well in 2025:

  • CSI 300: +4.02% in August, +7.74% year‑to‑date (YTD).
  • Shanghai Composite: +4.33% in August, +11.23% YTD.
  • Hang Seng Index: +25.51% YTD, beating both Mainland markets and the Nasdaq (+11.97% YTD).

Investors watch Beijing’s next steps. A delay in a fiscal boost or softer economic numbers could end the current stock market rise.

Conclusion

China stands at a key point where its choices on stimulus and trade shape its future. The break in a trade fight stops a clash for now, yet problems persist with rare earth rules and tariffs.

Economic numbers show signs of slower growth. The policy moves in the coming months will decide if growth and market trust can stay on track. For global markets, China’s course stays a major factor amid ongoing worldwide challenges.

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Fortifying Trade: How Ireland’s Economy Thrives Amid US Tariff Challenges

Ireland’s Export-Led Economy Remains Resilient Amid Rising US Trade Tariffs

August 19, 2025 — Ireland’s economy grows through exports. A US trade tariff now hits European Union imports. A 15% tax comes into force. Analysts see little harm for public funds and key sectors in the near term.

Key Sectors Withstand Tariff Pressures

The 15% US tax adds a clear challenge. Ireland depends on exports and corporate taxes. The aeronautics and pharmaceutical fields hold strong in a friendly business setting. Companies in these sectors face many rules that keep them here. Scope Ratings notes a strong foreign investment close to EUR 1 trillion in these high value-added fields.

Some doubt exists in the pharmaceutical field. US officials study a move to raise taxes for that sector. This change may disrupt supply routes and slow research spending. A provisional US-EU trade deal, while not final and waiting for EU approval, cuts the chance of a full trade fight or extra taxes on US goods. This matter is important for Ireland’s digital services.

Economic Implications and Structural Challenges

US trade policy shows Ireland’s link with US markets. The presence of many large multinationals makes this link strong. Ireland now needs home reforms and more spending to face trade ups and downs. A strong stream of corporate tax helps the economy. Scope Ratings keeps Ireland at an AA credit rating with a Stable Outlook. In 2024, corporate taxes brought in EUR 39.1 billion, about 36% of tax revenues. A one-time EUR 14 billion payment from Apple helped this result. Estimates set corporate tax at around EUR 29.3 billion in 2025 and EUR 28.1 billion in 2026 after the new tariff hit.

Ireland’s overall government plan is expected to stay in surplus. In 2025, the surplus may reach about 2.6% of modified gross national income (GNI*), and the average may be near 2.3% from 2026 till 2030. Without the extra tax cash, the plan might see a small deficit of 1% to 2% of GNI*. A risk lies in the fact that ten companies give 57% of all corporate tax and three companies give 40%.

Government debt looks to drop steadily. The debt-to-GNI* ratio may fall from 68% in 2024 to 63% in 2025 and drop below 50% by 2030. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall from about 40% to 30%.

Strategic Reserves and Future Investment

The government now redirects extra tax income into state funds set up in 2024. These funds aim to keep finances steady and meet long-term needs in welfare and infrastructure. The Future Ireland Fund could grow to around EUR 100 billion by 2040. This fund helps cover health and social costs as the population ages. Each year until 2030, EUR 2 billion goes to the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund to upgrade roads, bridges, and fight climate change.

The debt’s schedule also supports a sound outlook. Less than 40% of the debt is due within five years, and its average term passes ten years. The National Treasury Management Agency holds a cash reserve of EUR 30 billion, about 5% of GDP, which gives more room for financing choices.

Addressing Supply-Side Constraints

Ireland now faces limits on labor and skills as the economy works at near full strength. The government’s updated National Development Plan sets out EUR 102.4 billion in capital spending from 2026 to 2030, and a total of EUR 275.4 billion by 2035. There are risks because the labor market stays tight and government processes can slow projects.

Work reforms will help ease these limits. They allow the economy to take on spending on housing, water, energy, and transport works. A good plan could keep Ireland’s competitive strength and guard against shocks from the global market. This work is key for a small, open, and linked economy.

Thomas Gillet, Director in Sovereign and Public Sector Ratings at Scope Ratings, wrote this report. Elena Klare, Sovereign Ratings Analyst at Scope Ratings, helped with the research.

For further economic updates and market insights, readers can refer to FXEmpire’s economic calendar and related coverage.

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NAHB Housing Market Index Falls to 32: What It Means for Builders and Buyers

NAHB Housing Market Index Falls to 32, Missing Analyst Expectations

August 18, 2025 – By Vladimir Zernov

The NAHB has published its new Home Builder Index on August 18, 2025. The report shows builder trust drop. The index moves from 33 in July to 32 in August. Analyst forecasts held at 34. ### Key Highlights from the Report

  • Housing Market Index: Moves from 33 to 32.
  • Current Sales Conditions: Drop from 36 to 35.
  • Sales Expectations for the Next Six Months: Stay at 43.
  • Traffic of Prospective Buyers: Rises from 20 to 22, yet stays low.
  • Price Cuts by Builders: 37% of builders lower prices in August, cutting about 5%.

Affordability Remains a Major Challenge

The report points out that high home costs stay as the main block. Many buyers hold off to see lower mortgage rates. This wait pulls down overall confidence.

Market Reactions

After the report came out, the U.S. Dollar Index sits near 98.00. This calm shows that investors act carefully with weak housing data. Gold slips near $3,335, as traders read the housing signs. The S&P 500 stays near 6,450 as it watches the builder mood.

Looking Ahead

The next months will test the home market. Watch mortgage rates, builder moves, and buyer traffic. Even with price cuts, high costs may keep buyers on the sidelines until money matters get better.

About the Author

Vladimir Zernov is a trader with 18 years in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and other markets. He works on both short and long forecasts.

For more on market events and updates, check the economic calendar.

Disclaimer: This article gives facts only and does not speak to investment plans. Do your own research and talk to a finance expert before any decisions.

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Navigating Economic Signals: A Deep Dive into U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Projections, and Import Prices

U.S. Retail Sales, Fed Outlook, and Import Costs Present Mixed Signals for Traders

By James Hyerczyk, Updated August 15, 2025

U.S. economic data show clear signals for traders. Retail sales grow, factories work more, and import prices move up. The numbers and policy hints sit close together. This mix makes traders watch the Fed’s next steps.

Retail Sales Show Steady Consumer Demand, Yet Slow Growth

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau point to a 0.5% rise in retail and food services sales in July, reaching $726.3 billion. A revised gain of 0.9% in June comes just before. On a yearly view, sales climbed 3.9%. This move shows that buyers still spend money.

Nonstore sellers such as online shops grew by 8.0% compared to last year. Food services and places that serve drinks grew by 5.6% over the same time. Core retail trade—which leaves out items like cars and gas stations—rose 0.7% on a month-by-month basis.

These figures point to strong buyer use. The slow pace in gains may cool thoughts on a quick rate rise from the Fed.

Manufacturing Confidence Rises in New York

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey comes back with good news. Its headline index jumped 22 points to 5.5 in July. Signs like new orders and shipments also grew, which shows more work in factories.

Inventories grew a lot, and delivery times got longer. These clues show work on fixing supply issues. The job index ticked up to 9.2, marking two months in a row of job gains. This boost feeds hope for a fuller job market.

Input costs climbed to an index of 56.0 while sales prices held at 25.7. The overall business index jumped to 24.1. This jump shows more cheer among local makers.

Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs

Import prices moved up 0.4% in July. These numbers reverse the fall seen in the two previous months. A main pulse of this rise comes from a 2.7% jump in fuel costs—petroleum climbed 2.4%, while natural gas went up 4.7%.

Nonfuel prices moved up 0.3%, so costs for industrial items, consumer goods, and capital equipment edged up. On a yearly view, import prices dropped 0.2%, mostly due to a large 12.1% fall in fuel prices last year.

Export prices in July rose slowly by 0.1%. Cars and capital goods helped push up these prices, while prices for farm items stayed near the same level. Over the year, export prices grew 2.2%, even as prices in markets like Japan fell and costs in Mexico held still.

Market View: Cautious Hope With Fed Uncertainty

Strong retail sales, improved factory numbers, and higher import prices show a balanced U.S. economy. Rising fuel costs and supply limits may push up more expenses. These extra costs might press company profit margins.

For traders, the data point to a watchful rise in the short term. Steady spending and a lift in factory signals add to this idea. Still, traders keep a sharp look at the Fed’s move on inflation and rates. Fed policy soon will sway asset costs.

Related Economic Developments

Other news point to a drop in China’s retail sales and a pause in industrial output. U.S. producer prices jumped, which may slow any thoughts of a rate drop. Energy rates keep shifting, and investors keep a close watch on them.

James Hyerczyk is a veteran U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over four decades of experience in market analysis and trading. He specializes in chart patterns and price movements and is the author of two books on technical analysis.

For ongoing updates, consult FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and related market reports.

China’s Economic Woes: Retail Sales Decline and Industrial Output Slowdown Weigh on Markets

China’s Retail Sales Slow, Industrial Production and Job Data Raise Concerns; Hang Seng Index Declines

By Bob Mason | Published August 15, 2025, 02:48 GMT

Recent data from China point to a mixed path. Retail sales grew less and fewer goods came off factories. Unemployment climbed. Each number connects to show worries about China’s growth. Markets react slowly. The Hang Seng Index closed lower.

Slower Retail Sales and Industrial Output Signal Consumer and Manufacturing Struggles

In July, retail sales in China grew 3.7% over last year. This result did not reach the forecast of 4.6%. The growth also fell behind June’s 4.8%. These facts spark calls for more steps to boost spending at home.

Factories produced 5.7% more goods compared to last year in July. In June, the rise was 6.8%, a bit above the predicted 5.9%. New data from buyer surveys add to the picture. The steep cost from US charges cuts down output in many factories. Each fact ties to worries over both trade and factory profits.

Rising Unemployment Adds Pressure on Policymakers

In July, the jobless rate moved to 5.2% from 5.0% in June. Stories show that factories cut jobs as costs grow. This link presses down on buying power and mood among consumers. Beijing works on steps to steady the economy. Still, these numbers add to doubt about the state of work and spending.

Slow retail sales, lower factory output, and a higher jobless rate combine to mark a tough time. The words connect to show a market in need of careful moves.

Property Market Shows Tentative Signs of Stabilization

There is one note of relief in housing data. The House Price Index dropped 2.8% in July, less than the 3.2% decline in June. This smaller fall hints that policy moves aimed at homes may be working.
The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index gained 2.12% after these numbers came out.

Market Reaction: Hang Seng and Forex Movements

The market took a careful view of the numbers. The Hang Seng Index started the day 0.8% below at 25,315. It then moved to 25,286 and was about 0.91% down at 25,289 when reported.
In another market, the Australian dollar rose for a short time after good housing data. It went from $0.64919 to $0.65003. But the softer retail sales and lower factory output, along with a higher jobless rate, pulled the AUD/USD down to a low of $0.64893. It steadied near $0.64894. —

Outlook: Need for Continued Support and Trade Developments

While the housing market shows small gains, the wider data mean more support may be needed for China’s growth. Beijing has set out new steps to boost home demand. But work data and buying mood still signal strain. The market keeps close watch on trade links. A longer US-China pause in trade shows that risks still exist and may affect China’s turn around.

About the Author

Bob Mason brings over 28 years of experience in the financial field. He covers matters in currencies, raw materials, and global stocks, with care for markets in Europe and Asia. He has worked with many big banks and well-known rating groups.

For more detailed numbers and regular updates on China’s data and market moves, readers should view the complete economic calendar and related pieces on trade ties and policy steps.

EIA Reports Surprising 56 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build: What It Means for Prices and Demand

EIA Reports Natural Gas Storage Build of 56 Bcf, Surpassing Estimates and Applying Bearish Pressure on Prices

August 14, 2025 – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report shows a build of 56 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This figure beats analyst forecasts of 53 Bcf. Last week, the build was only 7 Bcf.

Right now, natural gas stocks sit 196 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year. This gap shows that supplies are high. Stocks remain 79 Bcf below last year, which shows some seasonal change even when supply looks ample.

Market Reaction and Price Outlook

The unexpected storage increase brings a bearish look to the market. After the report, natural gas futures fell. Traders see the high build as a sign of abundant supply amid steady production.

Vladimir Zernov, an independent trader with 18 years of market experience, said, "Our view is that this large storage increase will keep prices lower in the near term. Even if weather forecasts point to strong demand until the end of the week, prices have not gained strong support because many in the market watch high production levels closely."

From a technical view, natural gas prices try to hold steady above a support zone between $2.70 and $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). If prices fall below $2.70, traders will look to support near $2.50 to $2.55. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) nears oversold levels. New market signals could bring some price movement.

Weather and Demand Forecasts

Experts expect high natural gas demand in the coming days, driven by weather needs. The current surplus in inventory and steady production keep downward pressure on prices for now.

Summary of Key Data

  • Weekly Storage Build: +56 Bcf (reported) vs. +53 Bcf (expected)
  • Previous Week Build: +7 Bcf
  • Storage vs. Five-Year Average: +196 Bcf
  • Storage vs. Last Year: -79 Bcf

Broader Market Context

Other market updates join this news. There was a recent rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and shifts in crude oil inventories. These points add to a complex background that shapes energy markets and investor views.

For more updates on natural gas and other markets, check economic calendars and market forecasts regularly.

About the Author:
Vladimir Zernov is an independent trader with many years of experience in stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities. He writes about market trends and both short-term and long-term price moves.

Disclaimer:
This article is for information only. It does not serve as trading advice. Readers should do their own research and speak with financial experts before making any trading decisions.