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Canada’s Banking Overhaul: New Proposal to Ease Lending Rules and Boost Economic Growth

Canadian Banking Regulator Proposes Easier Lending Rules for Banks to Boost Economy and Competition

By Naimul Karim, Financial Post — November 20, 2025

Canada’s top banking regulator, OSFI, now suggests softer lending rules. OSFI wants to free bank capital. This change aims to boost lending and investments. It helps the economy grow in a fast-changing financial world.

Proposed Changes to Risk Weights

OSFI has new plans. The bank must now check loan risks in a different way. OSFI will lower risk weights for loans to small and medium businesses. The weight drops from 85% to 75%. Regulators use risk weights to mark how likely a loan is to default. A high risk weight forces banks to hold more capital. Lower weights mean banks can use capital for lending and other tasks.

OSFI also sees lower risk in low-rise residential projects. It plans to drop their base risk weight from 150% to 130%. For loans that meet at least 75% pre-sales, risk weights drop further. This step gives a boost to real estate loans while keeping risks in check.

Economic and Competitive Rationale

Jacqueline Friedland, OSFI’s executive director, keeps risks managed and banks flexible. She said these precise changes open more capital for loans and investments. At the same time, the government pushes for more competition in Canada’s finance market. Recent budgets now support smaller, alternative banks. Ottawa cuts fees and makes switching chequing accounts easier. These steps could change Canada’s banking scene for the better.

OSFI also starts a 90-day public check. This period lets banks and the public share ideas. The goal is to ease lending rules without adding extra risk.

Banks Have Room to Lend More

OSFI Superintendent Peter Routledge said banks now hold strong capital reserves. He claimed banks might lend nearly $1 trillion more. This amount is large when compared with Canada’s roughly $3-trillion economy. Routledge noted that these buffers should not sit idle. He said banks should use them to fuel growth. More lending to businesses and customers can help during trade disputes and other challenges.

Next Steps

Industry experts and the public can now review the new ideas. Their feedback will help OSFI shape the final rules. Draft regulations may come by spring 2026. Banks may soon have more room to support new business and consumer credit. This change can spark economic growth and make the banking scene more competitive.

For continued coverage on Canada’s banking regulations and economic developments, subscribe to Financial Post.

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Nvidia Earnings Power Up the Stock Market: A Surge in Tech Confidence

Why Is the Stock Market Up Today? Nvidia Earnings Propel Tech Rally

November 20, 2025 — U.S. stocks climbed on Thursday as Nvidia showed strong quarterly numbers. The report from the chip maker gave a clear sign, and investors saw new hope in the AI field. Gains spread across key indexes.

Nvidia’s Explosive Earnings Report

Nvidia showed a 62% jump in revenue compared to last year. The company reached $57 billion this quarter. The earnings per share came in at $1.30, past the $1.26 prediction. The firm also gave guidance that signals about $65 billion in revenue next quarter against the $62 billion estimate. CEO Jensen Huang stressed that demand for AI systems stays high. The company said its cloud GPUs are all booked, and sales on its new Blackwell GPUs grow fast.

AI Infrastructure Spending Drives Growth

Big cloud firms spend heavily on AI gear. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are set to spend over $380 billion on AI this year. Nvidia’s data center income hit $51.2 billion. That is a 25% rise from last quarter and 66% more than last year. On the earnings call, CFO Colette Kress pointed to clear gains from these investments. She mentioned Meta’s stronger user activity with AI engines, Anthropic’s expected $7 billion yearly revenue, and a 30% jump in productivity at Salesforce from AI coding help. These details show that money spent on AI gives results.

Market Response: Broad-Based Rally

Nvidia’s report boosted the market widely. The tech sector grew by 1.6%. Nvidia’s stock went up 2.56% to $192.29. Other chip names such as Broadcom gained 4.77% while AMD also moved up. The seven large tech companies moved higher too: Alphabet Class C climbed 3.31% and Tesla rose 4.27%.
Other sectors did well as well. Communication Services moved up 1.95%, Energy by 1.61%, and Consumer Discretionary by 1.51%. Some stocks jumped high too. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals soared 6.69% and Diamondback Energy increased 3.62%.

Index Gains at a Glance

At 16:54 GMT, major indexes showed this clear mood:

  • S&P 500: +1.38% at 6,733.68
  • Nasdaq Composite: +1.76% at 22,962.12
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.15% at 46,669.98

Renewed Confidence in AI Spending Durability

Investors now worry less about a burst in AI spending. Nvidia has more than $500 billion in GPU orders for 2025 and 2026. CFO Kress said that this number may rise. This helps cut some doubts about ongoing AI demand. Analysts view these numbers as clear signs that spending on AI will keep driving growth.

Outlook

Hyperscale companies keep investing fast. Nvidia’s strong report builds trust for the AI gear market. Investors will watch other tech firms to see if this strong pace can hold.

James Hyerczyk, a U.S.-based technical analyst with over 40 years of market work, wrote this report.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not count as investment advice. Readers should do their own research and talk with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates for Maintaining ‘Barely Restrictive’ Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates Keeping Interest Rates at ‘Barely Restrictive’ Levels

November 20, 2025 — Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack spoke on Thursday. She signaled that the cycle of rate cuts might soon end. In her CNBC Squawk on the Street interview, she pointed to a need for a small extra pull on policy. Her words tie the idea of a tighter stance to meeting the Fed’s inflation target.

Current Monetary Policy: “Barely Restrictive, If at All”

Hammack labels current monetary policy as “barely restrictive, if at all.” She makes clear that the bank must keep policy tight enough. Her words join the idea of slow inflation growth with the aim of reaching 2%.

“Right now, to me, monetary policy is barely restrictive, if at all, and I think we need to make sure that we’re maintaining that somewhat restrictive stance,” Hammack told CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

Interest Rate Levels and Economic Impact

Hammack ties the federal funds rate of 3.75% to 4% to what is seen as a neutral position. This rate and its closeness join to a view that extra cuts do not help now.
Her remarks come as market views change. The FOMC meets next on December 9-10. The market, which had tied a third rate cut to the cycle, now shows a 60% chance that rates will stay the same. This view comes from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Divergent Views Within the Fed

Minutes from the October Fed meeting show splits among members. Those minutes join views that balance inflation risks with soft spots in the labor market.
Hammack, who usually shows a strong view on inflation, favors higher rates. Her stance keeps a tight grip on price rises. Still, she shows care for workers in her region.

Insights from the Cleveland Region: Inflation’s Impact on Workers

Hammack shares chats with local workers and business owners. She ties low hiring and low firing rates to a soft labor market. Yet, she links real pain to inflation cutting the buying power of wages.

“What we hear from the workers is that they’re holding on to their jobs for dear life, if they have them,” Hammack said. “But what I also heard … was that the money that they have coming in is just not stretching as far as it used to. What used to cost $30 now costs $50, and so that inflationary pressure is still very salient for them.”

Mixed Signals from Employment Data

On the day Hammack spoke, the U.S. Labor Department put out the September nonfarm payrolls report. Her words join dual messages: payroll growth went strong, yet the jobless rate rose a bit. This mix ties together the ideas of recovery and current troubles in the labor market.

As a voting FOMC member in 2025, Beth Hammack’s words carry weight in making policy. Her push to keep rates near current levels joins caution on inflation with a care for steady growth.

Investors and policymakers will watch the December meeting. They wait to see how the Fed will work with these shared pressures. For now, Hammack’s words tie the need for steady watchfulness with the fight against rising inflation without loosening policy too fast.

For more economic updates and expert financial insights, stay tuned to CNBC and subscribe to our newsletters.

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Economic Outlook Dims: U.S. Employment Growth Slows as Manufacturing Faces Setbacks

Employment Growth Slows as Regional Manufacturing Returns to Contraction, Signaling Economic Cooling

November 20, 2025 — New data on jobs and factories from the United States show a slowdown in economic strength. Employment growth slows while regional manufacturing slips into contraction. Market experts watch these signs as hints of more easing soon.

U.S. Payroll Growth Moderates

Data from November 20 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that nonfarm payrolls grew by 119,000 jobs in September. The rate is lower than before, and the unemployment rate stays at 4.4%.

Hourly pay rose 0.2% to $36.67. Annual wage growth holds at 3.8%. Weekly work hours stayed at 34.2. A government shutdown delay changed the release time, yet most survey work ended before the delay.

The household survey counted 7.6 million unemployed people. Long-term unemployment held at 1.8 million, which is 23.6% of the jobless group. Labor force participation moved up to 62.4% while the employment-to-population ratio stayed at 59.7%.

Job gains came mainly in healthcare (+43,000), food services (+37,000), and social assistance (+14,000). Jobs in transportation and warehousing dropped by 25,000. Storage lost 11,000 jobs and courier services lost 7,000. Federal government jobs fell by 3,000, which makes the year-to-date drop 97,000. Regional Manufacturing Activity Contracts Again

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows a weak region of manufacturing.
The overall activity index, which is now -1.7, stayed below zero though it improved from past months. New orders (-8.6) and shipments (-8.7) also fell. This move into negative marks lower demand. The index for employment climbed to 6.0. Sixteen percent of firms report more hiring, but the average workweek dropped to 3.7. Price pressures persist but with less force. The prices paid index grew to 56.1 while prices received sank to 17.7. Firms also cut down their expected selling price for the next year to 3.0% from 4.1%. The six-month outlook index climbed to 49.6, its highest mark in a year.

Market Implications: A Bearish Near-Term Outlook

Soft payroll growth and selected job gains come with lower manufacturing orders and shipments. Wage growth stays steady. Business views of rising prices now soften.

Analysts see these numbers as signs that the economic push is weakening. These signs may cause market players to get ready for a softer economy or changes in monetary policy.

In sum, the latest reports on jobs and manufacturing show a careful U.S. economic scene. Limited job gains and lower industrial demand make near-term growth less strong.

—
About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a seasoned U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading. He focuses on chart patterns and price movement, has written two books on technical analysis, and holds strong knowledge in both futures and stock markets.

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September 2025 Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Surprises with 119,000 New Jobs as Unemployment Edges Up to 4.4%

U.S. Jobs Report for September 2025 Reveals 119,000 New Positions; Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4%

After a long gap caused by a record 44-day government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report on November 20, 2025. This report gives a clear view of the U.S. labor market as the year comes to an end.

Key Highlights:

  • Nonfarm payrolls grew by 119,000 in September. This rise beat the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000 as numbers connect closely.
  • Earlier data now shows fewer jobs. August changed from a 4,000 job gain to a loss.
  • The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
  • When including discouraged workers and those in part-time jobs for economic reasons, the wider unemployment figure dropped to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% each month and by 3.8% over the year. This rise went slightly above forecasts.

Context and Analysis

This report is the first update on employment since early September numbers appeared on September 5, 2025. The 44-day shutdown stopped key agencies like the BLS and the Bureau of Economic Analysis from collecting data. The gap made economic predictions and policy steps hard to decide.

Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, said, “September’s jobs report shows the labor market was strong before the shutdown. It beat payroll estimates, yet the picture stays cloudy with August jobs turning to a loss and unemployment increasing.” His words remind us that the data shows conditions from two months back and may not mark today’s scene.

Sector Performance

The hiring scene in September shows clear patterns:

  • Health care added 43,000 jobs.
  • Bars and restaurants contributed 37,000 jobs.
  • Social assistance saw 14,000 more jobs.

Some sectors did lose jobs:

  • Transportation and warehousing fell by 25,000 jobs.
  • The federal government employment dropped by 3,000 that month. In the year, federal jobs declined by 97,000.
  • Professional and business services lost 20,000 jobs, a drop that included 16,000 fewer temporary help services.

Household Survey Insights

The household survey, which connects the numbers of employed and active workers, shows a better view:

  • The count of employed persons grew by 251,000.
  • The labor force grew by 470,000, reaching 171.2 million workers.
  • The share of the population in the labor force moved up to 62.4%, its highest number since May 2025.
  • Workers in full-time jobs increased by 673,000. At the same time, part-time work fell by 573,000.

Market and Policy Implications

After the report came out, stock market futures moved up while Treasury yields fell. Investors connect these moves to a balanced economy, with steady job growth and a small rise in unemployment.

Market experts watch the mixed signals with care. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said, “Some parts of the report show strong payroll growth, which points to a firm economy, while other parts, like higher unemployment and slower wage gains, keep one hopeful for a possible Fed cut in December.”

The Federal Reserve meets on December 9-10. After a couple of rate cuts in September and October, officials now face a tough choice. With September’s labor data in hand, they see one final big jobs report before they set their next move.

Upcoming Data Releases

The BLS plans to release both October and November employment data on December 9, 2025. Note that October’s unemployment rate will not be there due to data issues from the shutdown.

Additional Government Data

A Labor Department update notes that for the week ending November 15, initial jobless claims came in at 220,000. This number is 8,000 below the previous week and sits under the forecast of 227,000 claims. These numbers form a steady view of the labor market in November.

In summary, the September 2025 jobs report, though delayed, shows a labor market that grows at a steady pace. The report sets out clear shifts in different job sectors and shows the challenges for those who make policy, all amid some data gaps and economic unknowns. More data in December will give a clearer picture of U.S. employment and the wider economy.

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China’s Market Turmoil: PBoC’s Rate Pause Fuels Economic Uncertainty and Investor Doubts

China Markets Struggle Amid Policy Uncertainty as PBoC Holds Rates Steady

By Bob Mason | Published: November 20, 2025, 03:22 GMT

China markets face pressure. The People’s Bank of China held key rates. This move raises doubt on Beijing policy. China sees slow growth. Signs drop and voices call for fresh aid. Domestic demand stays weak.

Economic Challenges Shadow Growth Prospects

New data shows a slow recovery. Retail sales grew 3.0% in September but slid to 2.9% in October. Growth fell after a 6.4% surge in May. The housing market feels stress. There is no sign of a quick rebound. These issues lower consumer trust. Domestic spending suffers and misses the 5% GDP aim for 2025. Exports lose strength too. Exports dropped 1.1% in October after an 8.3% jump the month before. Low global demand and trade strains hold back growth. Car exports, however, push ahead with low prices.

PBoC’s Pause Fuels Market Caution

In these conditions, the PBoC kept rates unchanged. Both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates stayed at 3% and 3.5%. These rates set the pace for loans to companies, families, and for housing. Many had hoped for lower rates to boost demand. The choice to hold rates lowered investor hope. Major stock indexes then lost ground. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite dropped after early gains.

Observers link the pause to Beijing’s careful stance amid tough pressures. This rate hold comes as US-China talks near rare earth export issues. Rare earths tie to electric vehicles and tech parts.

Trade Talks and Rare Earth Exports in Focus

US-China talks grab attention. Leaders hint at a rare earth deal before Thanksgiving. Some doubt China will give up control of its key resources. Customs data shows rare earth shipments fell in October to the lowest level since June. This drop occurs amid ongoing trade strains. A brief pause in export limits from leaders’ talks in October now feels fragile. China’s hold on these metals may pressure US car makers. A break in talks can stir global risks.

Equity Markets Tread Carefully Amid Uncertainty

Mainland stock markets show some steadiness. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.78% in November after a flat October. A small rebound earlier in the week offered brief hope. Still, traders stay cautious as they watch trade moves.

The Hang Seng Index also slipped 0.21% in November. Investors now check if rare earth progress can cut US duties on Chinese goods. A change could push up the Beijing stock rally that began earlier this year.

Upcoming Data and Outlook

The next week will hold key data. Investors scan for signs of recovery or deeper weakness. On November 27, industrial profit numbers for January to October are due. Experts predict a 3.8% rise, up from 3.2% in September. A rise in profit may show lower cost pressure and better demand. This signal may support jobs and boost spending.

On November 30, the private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out. These numbers will show how low US duties and trade talks shape Chinese exports and growth.

Conclusion

China deals with weak domestic demand, a stressed housing market, and careful monetary moves amid tricky US trade talks. The PBoC decision to hold rates shows Beijing is wary. Investors now look for clear signals.

Trade talks and new data will set the market tone. China’s growth and stock moves are not sure. Fresh measures from Beijing may restore trust and help reach the 2025 growth goal.

Bob Mason brings over 28 years of experience covering global financial markets and economic policy analysis.

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Nvidia’s Stellar Earnings Propel Nasdaq: Unpacking the Tech Surge and AI Demand

Nasdaq Composite Rises as Nvidia Hits a Strong Quarter, Lifting Tech Mood and After-Hours Trades

By James Hyerczyk
Published: November 19, 2025, 21:56 GMT

Nvidia reported strong earnings that pushed the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite upward. The news lifted the mood among investors and sparked a rise in trading after hours. The semiconductor leader beat Wall Street numbers and gave clear guidance for the next quarter. The report shows a high demand for its AI products.

Solid Earnings and Guidance Boost Investor Hope

Nvidia earned $1.30 per share after adjustments and beat forecasts of $1.25. Its revenue hit $57.01 billion, more than the $54.92 billion expected. The report also looked ahead, expecting about $65 billion in fourth-quarter sales, well over the consensus of $61.66 billion.

This clear view helped investors feel more hopeful. After hours, Nvidia shares went up around 4%. The company’s net income jumped 65% year-over-year to $31.91 billion. This gain shows that Nvidia stays strong in the fast-growing AI market.

Strong Growth in Data Centers Pushes Sales Higher

Nvidia’s data center unit led the overall growth. This part of the company grew 66% year-over-year and reached $51.2 billion, more than the $49.09 billion predicted by experts. Out of this, $43 billion came from compute products such as graphics processing units (GPUs), while $8.2 billion was from networking sales.

CEO Jensen Huang spoke of a very high demand for its next generation chips. CFO Colette Kress noted that the new chip version is now the firm’s top seller. The data shows that cloud providers keep a strong need for these products. Many cloud GPU items have already sold out.

Steady Gains in Other Areas

Nvidia did well in other parts of its business too. Gaming revenue grew 30% to reach $4.3 billion as users continue to show strong need. Professional visualization revenue went up by 56% to $760 million thanks to the new DGX Spark AI desktop. The robotics and automotive areas brought in $592 million, a 32% jump from last year. This rise shows that the market for Nvidia’s products is broadening.

Shareholder Rewards

Nvidia gave back to its investors with $12.5 billion in buybacks and $243 million in dividends this past quarter. These moves help keep a positive view in the market.

Looking Ahead

Market watchers now focus on the steady need for AI products and Nvidia’s skill in managing global chip limits. The company’s habit of exceeding estimates and raising guidance makes its case strong in the eyes of both traders and long-term investors.

As Nvidia sets a high mark this quarter, observers will check if the strength continues. Future results must stay solid to support the ongoing rise. For now, the report confirms Nvidia’s strong role in AI and the wider chip field.

James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over four decades of experience in market analysis and trading. He specializes in chart patterns and price movements and has authored two books on technical analysis.

Related Reading:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Lift US Indices as Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage
  • Fed Minutes Show Deep Division as Traders Brace for an Uncertain December Rate Decision

Disclaimer: This article is for informational use only and should not be seen as financial advice. Investors should do their own research and talk with licensed financial advisors before making any decisions.

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Anticipating the September Jobs Report: What to Expect as Markets Await Key Insights

September Jobs Report to Be Released Thursday: What to Expect

The government shutdown stopped the release of labor market data for a long stretch. Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will put out the September nonfarm payrolls report this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report ends a two-month break in key job numbers that left investors, economists, and policymakers with few official figures.

What the September Report May Reveal

The report will likely show a gain of about 50,000 jobs in both public and private work. This number is higher than the 22,000 jobs announced in August. The data shows some market growth but still hints at overall weakness.

Other estimates based on Dow Jones consensus include:

  • An unemployment rate of 4.3%,
  • Average hourly earnings that go up by 0.3% for the month,
  • A 3.7% boost in average earnings over the year—all close to August’s trends.

Context and Limits in the Data

Since the data belongs to September, it does not give a full current view for policymaking. Fed Chair Jerome Powell compared the policy setting to “driving in the fog.” He warned that interest rate decisions should not be made too quickly when all the numbers are not in yet.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, said, "Both the September report and the changes to July and August data might show a slightly better outlook than many think, but not by much. The job numbers are steady, just like the wider economy."

Impact of the Government Shutdown on Data Releases

The shutdown forced changes in the BLS schedule. The changes are:

  • No separate October jobs report; October data will come with November’s report, now delayed until December 16,
  • No unemployment rate for October because household data was not fully collected,
  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September and October will appear together on December 9. This delay means a clear look at the job situation may not come until early February 2026, according to Brusuelas.

Alternative Data and the Fed’s View

When official information was halted, economists turned to private data like:

  • ADP’s tracking of private payrolls,
  • Layoff figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas,
  • Other job indicators.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke recently. He said there is enough available data to guide decisions. He even mentioned that a rate cut might be in store come December.

Predictions and Revisions

Goldman Sachs analysts are more upbeat. They project an 80,000 job rise in September. However, they expect that October will see a drop of 50,000 jobs as a federal program linked to layoffs from the Department of Government Efficiency comes to an end.

The report will also update July and August payrolls data—numbers that may show stronger job gains than first recorded.

In summary, Thursday’s September jobs report brings long-awaited official numbers after many weeks without them. Because the data is from a past month and has its limits, the report may only give a partial view of the job market. Investors, economists, and policymakers will need to wait patiently as they work through a time of ongoing uncertainty.

Stay tuned to CNBC for live coverage and detailed analysis when the September jobs report is out.

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Navigating Uncertainty: Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divisions Ahead of December Rate Decision

Fed Minutes Reveal Division Among Policymakers as Markets Brace for Uncertain December Rate Decision

By James Hyerczyk | Published November 19, 2025

The Fed’s October meeting notes show clear splits. The document links policymakers with different views. Markets read the Fed’s measured tone as inflation stays high and jobs slow. Traders now wait with care for December’s choice on rates.

A Committee Split on the Path Forward

The notes stress that officials do not agree. In October, the Fed set rates down by 25 points. It paused the sale of assets on December 1. Yet, officials could not all agree on how tight the policy is. They could not agree on views for price rise and growth. The December meeting now stands open. Traders see few pointers as the Fed does not push strong moves.

Inflation Concerns and Divergent Views

Price rise sits at 2.8 percent year by year. Some officials tie the rise to tariff shifts. They think the change will soon fade. Others worry that high prices have stuck around for four years. They see this as a sign of a firm trend. This mix of views builds the debate. If prices drop fast, those who favor softer policy feel they have reason for more cuts. But if prices stay high, those who call for firm policy say that the rate drop came too soon.

Labor Market Signals Mixed

The job scene looks mixed in the notes. Job numbers grow slower. Layoffs stay low, and new hiring is less strong. Some note that tech changes might change how work and output connect. These clear links help shape the Fed’s view. For traders, the key is that while jobs do not fall sharply, they cool enough to back those who push for more rate cuts.

December Rate Decision Looms as a Possible Policy Battle

The notes show that officials express “strongly differing views.” About half lean toward another rate drop in December. They note soft job data and a wish for neutral policy. The other half wants to wait. They point to steady price rise and sound growth. They worry that fast changes might unsettle market views. Markets now give about equal weight to a rate cut or no move. Analysts point to November’s price and job reports as key hints for the final choice, assuming data comes in on time.

Market Implications: Equities, Bonds, and Beyond

In stocks, ending the asset sale and the Fed’s soft tone help some risk makers. Still, the high values in tech, spurred by rush around new tech, may bring sharp shifts. When market gains hinge on a few tech names, change may come fast. Buyers step in on dips, yet gains stay small unless data shines bright.

In bonds, the pause on asset sales cuts supply strain. This should help keep yields in check, mainly on long loans. Still, steady price rise will likely hold a base for long-term rates. A small change in the yield curve may occur at year’s end. The overall shift now rests on what the Fed chooses in December.

Looking Ahead: Data Will Drive the Narrative

To sum up, the October notes show a Fed caught at a fork. The bank gets news in many ways, while views inside differ a lot. With one big step gone from selling assets, one risk for many markets lessens. Still, worries on prices and market worth call for care.

Market watchers must watch November’s reports. These data points seem set to guide the Fed’s last move for 2025. The main idea stays plain: the next step remains in doubt, and the December meeting can set the mood for the months ahead.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical expert and teacher with over forty years of market work. He studies chart work and price moves and has written two books on market study. James works with both futures and stock markets.

Disclaimer: The text here is for study and research only. It does not give tips on money matters. Readers should check their own facts and get advice from experts before making choices.

For more study and forecasts, visit FXEmpire’s Markets and Forex sections.

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Fed Minutes Reveal Divided Opinions on Future Rate Cuts Amid Economic Concerns

Fed Minutes Reveal Division Over October Rate Cut and Doubts About December Move

Washington, D.C., November 19, 2025 — In October, the Federal Open Market Committee met with clear differences. The officials debated if they should cut interest rates. They faced the challenge of a cooling labor market and high price levels. The minutes show that leaders did not agree on how to balance these needs.

October Rate Cut Approved Amid Mixed Views

The committee cut the rate by 0.25 points. They lowered it to a band of 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. The close vote, rare for the Fed, hints at two main views. One set of officials feels that current rules still slows growth. Another set sees strong economic activity that makes the rules too loose. The leaders stuck close to one another on their word links as they studied new data.

Debate Over December Rate Cut

The documents note deep splits on a possible rate cut in December. A few participants thought another cut might be needed if numbers fit their views. Many raised doubts and warned against cutting rates further in 2025. In Fed language, the word “many” means a larger group than “several.” This choice of word shows that most members lean against a December cut. Since not all voting members join the discussion, the exact strength of the view remains unclear.

Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that a December move is not a done deal. This comment shifts from market views that expected a near-certain cut. The CME Group FedWatch tool set the chance of a December cut at about 33% by Wednesday. For January, the probability rose to roughly 66%.

Divergent Perspectives Within the Committee

The split among officials falls into clear lines:

  • Doves – Governors Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman back cuts. They tie their views to keeping the labor market growing as hiring cools.
  • Hawks – Regional Fed Presidents Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City), Susan Collins (Boston), and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) worry that easing rules too soon may keep prices high.
  • Moderates – Chair Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams push for a slow, careful look at future numbers before any move.

One official—likely Miran—saw a larger half-point cut as the path forward, while President Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.

Data Challenges Amid Government Shutdown

The committee did not have a full view of the economy. A 44-day government shutdown held up key reports on jobs and prices. Powell compared the condition to “driving in the fog” with missing signs. Governor Waller countered that enough data still sits with the Fed to shape its plan.

Balance Sheet Policy Adjustments

The minutes also show that the Fed will pause reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities from December. This pause comes after the process cut more than $2.5 trillion from the balance sheet, which now sits near $6.6 trillion. With the pause, tightening on this side of the policy becomes milder.

Summary:

  • The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in October amid different views.
  • Doubt now surrounds a move in December.
  • The committee splits among inflation-focused hawks, job-focused doves, and cautious moderates.
  • A government shutdown delayed clear economic data.
  • The pace of reducing holdings will slow starting in December.

As the economic path stays unclear, investors and policymakers watch new data and Fed signs to see how policy will shift in 2026. —

For more detailed analysis and market updates, stay tuned to CNBC’s continuing coverage.

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