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China GDP Slows While Industrial Output Jumps Following Export Surge; AUD/USD and Hang Seng Index Climb

By Bob Mason | Published October 20, 2025

China shows mixed data. GDP slows and industry climbs. Export numbers rise. This mix lifts market moods. The Australian dollar climbs against the US dollar, and the Hang Seng Index goes up as investors note China’s steady work despite trade challenges with the United States.


Economic Growth Slows Amid Housing Sector Struggles

China’s GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter. It was 5.2% before. The housing sector faces deep issues. Housing prices fell less in September at 2.2% compared to 2.5% in August. In most cities, prices fall every month. Low prices cut consumer trust and spending. Retail sales jumped only 3% year-on-year in September, down from 3.4% in August.

These housing troubles lead many to doubt Beijing’s work to hit a 5% GDP growth target in 2025. Analysts keep a close eye on the trends.


Industrial Production Rebounds on Export Rise

Industrial output shows strength. It grew by 6.5% year-on-year in September after a 5.2% rise in August. A rise in exports and strong demand abroad back this gain. Though local buying slows, the industry stands firm.

Quarter-on-quarter, GDP stayed at 1.1% in Q3, matching Q2. Strong work in industry kept this pace. More output gave a slight relief to the labor market as the unemployment rate dipped from 5.3% in August to 5.2% in September. There is hope for slow improvements in consumer mood.


Market Reaction: AUD/USD and Hang Seng Index Respond Positively

Good news from industry and overall data helped ease growth fears. On October 20, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.09% to reach 25,774 amid some ups and downs after the People’s Bank of China did not change loan prime rates. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose by 0.75%. This rise came as the drop in housing prices slowed.

In the currency market, the Australian dollar edged up against the US dollar. It moved from $0.65049 to a high of $0.65117 and then settled near $0.65103. This near 0.3% jump hints at a mood boost from better export and industry numbers and hints of lessening trade tension before the upcoming APEC meeting.


Broader Implications Ahead of APEC Summit and Policy Developments

These reports come at a busy time as China gets ready for big meetings. The APEC Summit, set for later this month, will see talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. Markets wait to see if trade talks can cut US tariffs on Chinese goods. Such moves could lift risk views in markets for stocks and money.

At the same time, Beijing’s Fourth Plenum is set to share new policy views. These may include ideas to fix the housing market and boost local buying. Outcomes from this meeting and future GDP goals will shape how investors think about the future.


Conclusion

China’s data gives a mixed view. GDP growth slows as the housing market shows pain and retail sales rise only slightly. Yet, a strong rise in industry backed by export strength gives some hope. The rise in AUD/USD and the Hang Seng Index shows that investors are watching Beijing’s next moves and trade talks to keep growth steady. However, care must be taken as the scene keeps changing.


About the Author

Bob Mason is a financial journalist with over 28 years of experience covering global markets. He writes on currencies, commodities, and stocks in Europe and Asia. His work comes from years with large banks and rating firms.


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Scotiabank Announces Layoffs Across Multiple Departments Amid Organizational Transformation

By Naimul Karim | Published October 17, 2025

Scotiabank—the Bank of Nova Scotia—has started layoffs in Canada. The bank did not reveal the number of positions. Sources confirm that layoffs have run since September.

A Strategic Shift Towards Efficiency and Growth

The bank shifts focus. Scotiabank uses its resources to grow and work more efficiently. In a statement late in September the bank said it must manage resources well to serve clients and keep growth steady.

“Aligning our organization and our resources around our focus areas for growth, including finding ways to be more efficient, is a part of managing our bank effectively,” the bank said. “We will continue to prioritize and invest in areas that best meet the needs of our clients and deliver sustainable growth.”

Aris Bogdaneris, head of Scotiabank’s Canadian business, sent a memo to staff. He said a change this big is hard. He noted the bank must cut back on tasks that take time and add little value.

Employee Experiences and Communication

Employees got short, tight messages. One HR team member said a call informed them about the staff cuts, but there was little chance to ask questions. Staff talk shows that cuts come from many parts of the bank.

Return-to-Office Policy and Broader Industry Context

The layoff news came after a return-to-office announcement. This marked a big change after long remote work. Scotiabank is not alone. In May, Toronto-Dominion Bank cut about two percent of its workforce as changes began.

Looking Ahead

Scotiabank now aims to blend efficiency with client needs and growth. The bank has not given more details on further cuts or future changes.

These events mark a clear shift in Canada’s financial world. Banks adjust as economic and work-place trends evolve.


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U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows in 2025 Amid Record Tariffs and Rising Debt Payments

October 16, 2025 — The U.S. budget moved to a lower deficit in fiscal year 2025. Tariff collections reached new records. They helped cover higher spending on our growing debt. The Treasury Department shared the news on Thursday. Even with tough economic times, the government cut its shortfall compared to last year.

Deficit Down Slightly Despite Rising Costs

The federal government ended 2025 with a $1.78 trillion budget deficit. This number is $41 billion less, about 2.2% lower than the 2024 deficit. This amount is still high by past standards. But it shows progress in handling the red ink during hard fiscal times.

In September, the fiscal year closed with about $5.2 trillion in revenue, even though spending went over $7 trillion. A large jump in customs duties, driven by tariffs set earlier this year, kept the result from worsening.

Tariff Collections Reach New Highs

Tariff revenues reached $202 billion. This jump is 142% higher than in 2024. The strong rise came with tariffs on imported goods set by President Donald Trump. In the month of September alone, tariff payments hit a record $30 billion. That month increased by 295% compared to the same month last year.

These strong tariff revenues brought a September surplus of $198 billion. This new record gave a needed boost to government funds.

Debt Payments Hit Record Levels

Even as tariff money improved the numbers, the government had to cover very high interest on the growing national debt. Now, the U.S. holds $38 trillion in debt. At the same time, interest payments climbed.

Total interest on the debt passed $1.2 trillion in 2025. That is a new record and about $100 billion more than in 2024. Without counting interest earned from its own investments, net interest payments came to $970 billion. This amount is $57 billion more than defense spending. Debt service became the fourth-largest part of the federal budget, after Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare costs.

Fiscal Metrics and Economic Outlook

Officials in the Treasury now say that the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio will fall to 5.9% for 2025. This is a small improvement but still above the usual 3% seen when the economy is stable. The ratio has stayed near 6% since 2022 as fiscal stress continues.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent showed guarded hope last week. He said, “We’re on our way” to cutting the deficit burden. He mentioned forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office that point to a ratio below 6%.

Impact on Inflation and Monetary Policy

Tariffs raised funds, but they also brought a worry for higher prices on some goods. So far, price rises on these items have been slow and steady rather than sharp.

Officials at the Federal Reserve have signaled a possible cut in base interest rates. Their view is that the price effects from tariffs will not last long. The current federal funds rate is 4.00% to 4.25%.


Summary of Key Figures:

  • 2025 Budget deficit: $1.78 trillion (2.2% decrease from 2024)
  • Tariff revenues: $202 billion (142% increase from 2024)
  • September 2025 surplus: $198 billion (record)
  • National debt: $38 trillion
  • Interest payments on debt: $1.2 trillion (record high)
  • Net interest payments: $970 billion (exceeds defense spending by $57 billion)
  • Deficit-to-GDP ratio: 5.9% (small improvement)

The data from the Treasury Department shows a close link between trade rules, debt payments, and budget numbers as the U.S. faces tough economic times. In the coming months, leaders will work to balance tariff revenue gains with the risk of rising prices. They will also meet the high costs of paying the national debt.

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BMO to Sell 138 U.S. Branches to First-Citizens Bank, Plans to Open 150 New Locations Mainly in California

October 16, 2025 | Financial Post

BMO announced a plan. It will sell 138 U.S. branches to First-Citizens Bank & Trust Co. and open 150 new branches in the next five years. The new branches will be built mainly in California. Each word links closely to the next. This simple chain helps you follow the news easily.

Branch Sale Focused on Midwest Locations

BMO sells branches in the American Midwest. The sale covers branches in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Idaho. It also includes selected branches in Minnesota, one branch in Oregon, and one in Illinois. First-Citizens Bank takes these branches. It also gets about US$5.7 billion in deposits and buys roughly US$1.1 billion in loans. At closing, BMO receives a net deposit premium of five percent. Each fact connects closely to its description.

Expansion Strategy Targeting Growth Markets

After the sale, BMO plans to open 150 new branches. The bank picks U.S. markets with real growth. It focuses mainly on California but will not limit itself to that state. BMO wants to reach more clients and build stronger ties. "This reallocation allows us to deepen client relationships and deliver the full power of BMO to our clients," said Aron Levine, BMO’s U.S. president. For him, each branch is a place for financial advice and a community hub. Every phrase links directly to its purpose.

Financial Impact and Timeline

BMO expects a goodwill impairment charge of about US$75 million. This charge will appear in the fourth quarter, before and after tax. The bank also sees a US$85 million tax expense at closing. The transaction needs regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. The deal is set to close by mid-2026. Short words and clear links keep the story easy to read.

Looking Ahead

BMO makes a clear choice. It sells smaller or less profitable branches while focusing on high-growth regions. This change helps the bank serve customers and communities more effectively. The realignment strengthens BMO’s position in the U.S. financial markets. Each sentence builds on the last to form a clear chain of ideas.


For further details or inquiries: Naimul Karim at nkarim@postmedia.com

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Switzerland Slashes GDP Forecast Amid Impact of Trump Tariffs on Economy

October 16, 2025 — The Swiss government cuts its growth forecast for 2026. They point to high US tariffs as the main cause. The tariffs come from the Trump era and hit trade hard.

Economic Forecast Revision

Swiss leaders keep the 2025 growth forecast at 1.3%. This rate sits well below earlier trends. They now set the 2026 GDP growth at 0.9% instead of 1.2%. A public note shows “higher US tariffs” bear on the outlook. The extra cost weighs on Swiss industries that depend on exports.

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Exports

Switzerland banks on exports. In 2024, the US stood as the largest market for Swiss goods. Trade tensions have led the US to add tariffs as high as 39% on Swiss items.

Key export sectors include:

  • Watches
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Precious metals
  • Chocolate and skincare products

Pharmaceutical goods are hit hard. They now face a 100% tariff if manufacturers do not build or grow production in the US. This rule puts Swiss items at a clear disadvantage.

Trade Policy Challenges and Market Uncertainty

Swiss officials see the world demand for Swiss goods growing slowly. Trade sectors feel high strain from these tariffs. Some effects can spread to slow the wider economy.

Officials watch changes in US trade policy. A new deal or a drop in tariffs might bring better times. For now, risks remain high.

Swiss Franc’s Strength Poses Additional Headwinds

The Swiss franc stands strong as a safe coin. It has grown more than 12% this year. This growth cools prices and makes it hard for the national bank to fight a drop in prices or very low rates.

Leaders warn that if the franc grows even stronger, problems may pile up. Global risks like rising tensions or debt issues can add more force.

Expert Insights: Risks Mounting for Switzerland’s Economy

Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING, sees more risk ahead. She marks about 4% of Swiss GDP coming from the US. She estimates that the 39% tariff can cut GDP by about 0.86% in two years.

She now predicts a 0.8% growth rate for 2026. That is nearly half of the early forecast. She warns that slow exports might lead some quarters to shrink.

Melanie Debono, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shares these views. She sees Swiss GDP shrinking in the later half of 2025. Falling exports and low investment feed into the worry. She predicts a 0.2% drop in GDP each quarter in Q3 and Q4. ### Conclusion

Switzerland’s new GDP cut and the heavy US tariffs show the tough spot the country faces in trade today. With uncertain trade rules and a strong currency, the near-term view stays dim. As trade talks and policy shifts continue, Swiss growth rests on solving these trade issues and handling currency change.


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US-China Trade Tensions Escalate Ahead of APEC Summit as Rare Earth Dispute Deepens

By Bob Mason | Published October 16, 2025, 03:03 GMT

Trade tensions grow between the United States and China. Both sides act in ways that keep the conflict high. The clash centers on rare earth minerals and taxes. These moves put global supply chains and markets at risk.

Rare Earth Clash Sparks New Dispute

China now sets tighter limits on its rare earth exports. It needs these minerals for high-tech work and defense. Beijing first said it would stop exports entirely. Soon, it clarified that valid requests would go ahead.

This change makes President Trump add a 100% tariff on many Chinese goods. Soon after, both leaders set new port fees on shipments from October 14. The fight now widens.

US officials see China’s move as a test of strength. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said America and its friends must build their own support. They aim for plans that can match China’s tight hold.

Washington and Beijing Brace for High-Stakes APEC Meeting

The APEC Summit is just around the corner. Hopes for a quick fix have grown dim. In a planned meeting, President Trump and President Xi show few signs of softening positions. Each side stands firm.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, "We can work through it if China does not keep a veto over our tech chains." Yet Greer also noted that China faces its own trade slowdowns and rising job losses.

China’s Economic Strength Fuels Belief

China shows strong trade signs despite the row. Exports jumped 8.3% in September and imports grew by 7.4%. UBS raised its forecast for China’s export rise in 2025 from 1% to 4.5%. New trade routes and global demand beyond America help this rise.

Policy support and hope in local spending lift spirits in China. The ruling party meets soon and plans to boost family buying power and high-tech work. This move shows a shift toward a home-driven plan.

Market Reaction and Global Implications

Asian markets gained small points amid the tension. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Hang Seng index all moved up slightly. Traders see hints of steps to help jobs and home sectors.

In the United States, worries pile up over slow growth and a risk of high prices. The central bank may drop interest rates in October and again in December to spark growth.

Across Europe, fears rise that limits on Chinese goods may push prices up if supplies fall short.

What Lies Ahead?

With the APEC Summit near, the US-China trade bond meets a tough test. Neither side seems ready to bend. Each holds strong economic goals and home pressures that add weight.

China warns it can hold a full trade fight if pressed. In contrast, Washington stays firm, calling out China’s trade moves. How this row ends may shape trade for years to come.

Observers will watch closely for any break or further fight at the summit. The outcome could affect markets around the world.


For continuous updates on this developing story and detailed market analysis, stay tuned to FXEmpire.

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Wells Fargo and Pfizer CEOs Warn U.S. Must Innovate to Compete with China

At CNBC’s first Invest in America Forum in Washington, D.C., two top business leaders warned about the U.S. losing its place in the world market. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stressed the need for fresh ideas if the U.S. is to stay ahead of China.

AI as a Double-Edged Sword in U.S. Productivity

Charlie Scharf pointed out how AI changes work in finance. AI helps code teams work 20% to 40% faster. It does this by letting computers take on tasks that people once did. Still, it cuts the number of needed workers.

Scharf said, "We will likely have less people, absolutely." He meant that even though work moves faster, Wells Fargo keeps many staff and still gets more done. At other banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, fewer hires are already the norm as AI joins daily tasks. He also mentioned that new rule changes could adjust money rules at banks. Such rule changes may let smaller banks work better with their communities even when Washington stays still.

China Closing the Gap in Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla shared his worry over China’s fast moves in biotech and drugs. He noted that China now files more patents than the U.S. Bourla warned that if this pace persists, China might pull ahead in health science work.

"Five years ago, the U.S. led with a 90%-to-10% share in patents," Bourla said. "That gap is shrinking, and they might soon do better than us if we do not act soon." He urged change in how efforts are made. He said the U.S. must focus on doing more work, trying fresh ideas, and keeping rules steady.

Removing Barriers for Innovation

Bourla also spoke against trade duties and uncertain prices that slow progress. In a move to keep drug prices steady, Pfizer agreed with the previous administration on a three-year break from specific drug duties. This break came with a promise to keep building drug plants in the U.S.

"Tariffs and price shocks are now less of a worry," Bourla said. He added that AI stands as the next phase in medicine. He looks forward to AI cutting the time needed to find new treatments, especially for hard diseases like Alzheimer’s and cancer.

"We have tried for years to find cures. AI will make it happen," he said.

The Call for Investment and Policy Change

Both CEOs agreed that more spending on new tech and factories is needed soon. They stressed that clear and steady rules must back these efforts. This will help the U.S. lead in new fields and counter the rise of China in world markets.


As the U.S. economy meets new tests, leaders like Scharf and Bourla call for a renewed focus on fresh ideas, smart use of AI, and simple rules. This path will help America stay at the front of science and business progress.

For more insights and coverage on U.S. economic policy and innovation, stay tuned to CNBC.

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BMO CEO Voices Concern Over Canada’s Waning Focus on Economic Growth and Trade Barriers

By Naimul Karim | Published October 15, 2025

At the Toronto Global Forum on Wednesday, Darryl White, the CEO of Bank of Montreal, raised concerns about Canada’s slow move on economic growth. He pointed out that Canada talks much about strong economics. However, his speech stressed the need for clear, fast steps. Canada must cut internal trade barriers and build key infrastructure to keep growing. White warned that without real actions, Canada may lose ground, especially when U.S. tariffs challenge it.

A Call for Action Over Conversation

White said, "We need a little less conversation and a little more action." His words link removing trade barriers with speeding up infrastructure projects. These actions aim to fight the economic strain caused by U.S. tariffs. He noted that while talks about tariffs show Canada’s natural resources, the energy in these discussions is at risk. Without firm measures, the country may fall behind.

Tax Competitiveness a Key Concern

White also stressed problems with Canada’s tax rates. He said Canadian taxes are not as low as those in other countries. This fact does not get enough talk in policy circles. "Are we competitive in tone? Are we competitive on tax? I know the answer to that is absolutely not, and that’s not being talked about enough," he said. He explained that investors follow easy paths. Rhetoric on its own will not keep international capital in Canada. White warned that unless changes come, even those attracted by recent positive talks may soon leave.

Internal Trade Barriers: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Economy

White believes that cutting internal trade barriers may boost Canada’s economy. He argued that these actions could cancel out the shocks from uncertain trade talks under CUSMA. This agreement, which helps most Canadian exports to the U.S. avoid tariffs, will be renegotiated next year. White said, "Acting quickly within our own borders to enhance trade fluidity could overwhelm almost any adverse impacts from trade negotiations abroad." He noted that while dealings with the U.S. are on the right track, domestic reforms must come now.

Navigating a Shifting North American Trade Landscape

White discussed U.S. trade policy as well. He said that although the U.S. shows an "America First" approach, it does not mean complete isolation. He claims Canada can still play an important role. "Canadians might not like to hear it, but if Canada were second in an America-first world, this notion of North American advantage starts to become real," he said. Despite tension in the media and politics, both nations work hard to use their strengths.

BMO’s Strong Quarterly Performance Amid Economic Unease

During the talk, White noted BMO’s strong quarterly results. He recognized that major Canadian banks enjoyed a good report. Still, he warned that not all parts of the economy show the same strength. He mentioned that while investment banking and wealth management perform well, slow loan growth and rising credit issues on "Main Street" pose worries. White explained, "Earnings headlines are driven by averages, so caution is warranted. It’s like having your feet in the freezer and your head in the oven—you feel fine on average, but it’s pretty uncomfortable."

Looking Ahead

White is also worried about Canada’s unemployment rate, now at 7.1 percent. He sees labor market challenges that could affect the broader economy if ignored. As Canada prepares for tough trade talks and reforms inside its borders, White’s message is clear. The country must move from talk to action on tax issues and trade barriers. Quick, focused changes are needed for a strong economic future.


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Why Micro Condos Will Survive the Current Housing Market Downturn

By Garry Marr, Financial Post – October 15, 2025

Micro condos are small. They measure about 300 square feet. They sit in busy downtown cores like Toronto and Vancouver. Lately, buyers and investors find them less attractive. Yet one real estate expert says these small units will last. They will stay in the housing market as conditions change.

The Current State of Micro Condos

Micro condos were once in high demand. The real estate boom and the pandemic fueled a fast pace of building. Developers built many small units for city dwellers. They aimed to provide affordable homes with rich amenities.

Investors now step back. They see weak capital returns and uncertain rental income. First-time buyers also hesitate. High prices and steep interest rates push them away, even as rents drop. Families have shown little interest too. All these factors lower demand.

Buyer Behavior and Market Dynamics

Greg Zayadi, president of Rennie & Associates Realty Ltd., notes that many buyers pause at the closing stage. They often withdraw from deals. These units need smaller deposits. A small deposit makes it easier for buyers to exit if problems arise. Developers then face the cost of lost pre-sale deposits. This leaves many units unsold.

For example, Vancouver has 12,354 unsold micro condos in Q3. That is a 16% rise from the previous quarter. Prices fall between $950 and $1,200 per square foot. Now, values are near 20% below their peak. Zayadi thinks it may take two years to clear this stock.

Challenges for the Micro Condo Market

New micro condo projects face hard challenges. Builders now struggle to match price, size, and amenity needs. Buyers look for larger units at lower costs. They want homes that suit end-users rather than investors. Technical issues stop developers from combining several small units into one large unit. Plumbing, electrical work, and high renovation costs create obstacles.

Brad Burns, senior associate and design director at Gensler, shares a saving grace. In the student housing niche, micro and nano units work well. In Vancouver projects, units as small as 160 square feet serve students. They offer a full bath, a cooking space, and a work area. Furniture and shared tools add extra help.

The Future of Micro Condos

Micro condos lose their shine for some buyers and investors. Still, experts like Burns and Zayadi see a lasting role. For single people and students, tiny and smart units hold real value. Urban life and minimalism keep these condos in style.

Even if the market calls for larger and cheaper housing, micro condos will not vanish. They will change and serve specific groups. They remain part of the evolving housing scene.


Photo Caption: A 268-square-foot micro condo in Montreal’s Griffintown area includes a pull-out couch to maximize limited space. (Photo by John Mahoney / Montreal Gazette)


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Stark Divide Emerges in Economic Confidence Between High and Low-Income Americans

A JPMorgan survey reveals a clear gap in how Americans view the economy. The study shows that people with higher income see the future much brighter than those with lower income. Experts call this a "K-shaped" recovery because one group grows while the other falls behind.

High-Income Earners More Optimistic About Economic Outlook

JPMorgan’s Cost of Living Survey shows higher earners feel better about what lies ahead. They give their outlook an average score of 6.2 out of 10. Over half of them score between 7 and 10. This score tells us that richer Americans feel safe with their money and keep spending on extra items.

Low-Income Respondents Report Struggles Amid Inflation

Consumers with lower income give their confidence a lower score of 4.4 out of 10. Fewer than one in four in this group score between 7 and 10. The gap of 30 points shows the stress felt by those with less money. When asked about paying monthly bills, nearly 60% of rich respondents say their bills are easier to pay, while only 37% of middle-income and 30% of low-income earners agree. The rising costs affect low earners the most.

Spending Plans Reflect Confidence Divergence

Higher-income Americans plan to spend more on non-essential goods over the next year. In contrast, those with lower income work within tight budgets and focus on basic needs first.

Broader Trends Affirm Income-Based Confidence Gap

The survey fits with other national data. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index shows that top earners score about 25% higher than those at the bottom. This finding supports the view of an uneven recovery.

Understanding the "K-Shaped" Economy

In a "K-shaped" recovery, the strong keep growing while the weak get left behind. People with good finances continue to spend and grow financially, while those with less face growing difficulties.


This split in economic views matters for leaders, businesses, and citizens alike. The findings call for measures to help those hit hardest by rising prices and money stress.

As inflation hits, the survey paints a clear picture of an economy where wealth and strain live side by side.

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