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Fed’s Powell Hints at End of Tightening Program Amid Uncertain Rate Outlook

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Signals Potential End of Quantitative Tightening, Uncertain Outlook on Interest Rates

October 14, 2025 — At the business economists’ meeting in Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke about how the bank nears the end of its plan to shrink its bond holdings. The Fed works to finish its move away from the large balance sheet built during the pandemic. Powell did not give a clear map for future interest rates. This leaves the market with some doubt.

Nearing the End of Balance Sheet Reduction

Powell said the Fed now holds over $6 trillion in securities. This number falls from nearly $9 trillion at the height of the pandemic. Since mid-2022 the bank has let securities mature and not reinvest the money. This step reduces the holdings and makes the money supply less loose.

"Our plan is to end the balance sheet runoff when reserves stay a bit above what we see as a safe level," Powell said. He meant that the bank thinks there is enough money in the system but not too much. He expects that level to come in the coming months.

This change goes against the bank’s earlier actions. Before, the Fed bought many Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to put more cash in the system and help the recovery. Now, with market conditions in change, the bank wants to keep enough cash for smooth payments while avoiding overheating the economy.

Implications for Financial Markets

Even if balance sheet issues sound tough, they affect market moves. Powell pointed out small signs that cash in the system is getting tighter. He warned that further cuts in the balance sheet might slow economic growth. Yet, he said that the bank will not go back to a balance sheet of around $4 trillion like before Covid.

Powell also talked about the interest paid on bank reserves. Some politicians, such as Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), have questioned this method. Powell sees it as important for keeping a close hold on short-term rates. He said, "If we stopped paying interest on reserves and other items, the Fed would lose control over rates." The bank faced brief losses when it raised rates quickly, but Powell expects its net income to soon show a rise.

Interest Rate Outlook: A Delicate Balancing Act

Powell repeated the main idea of the policy group, the FOMC. Leaders worry as signs of tightening in the labor market add to the challenge of keeping inflation in check while keeping people employed. Powell noted that though the jobless rate stayed low until August, the growth in payrolls is slower. This change is linked to fewer people working and new job seekers.

After a small rate drop in September, the market thinks there may be two more cuts this year. Powell was careful with his words. He said, "There is no free path in policy as we work with the challenge of meeting both our work and price goals."

Data Challenges and Economic Outlook

The government shutdown makes it hard for the Fed to get the latest data, like job reports and price measures. Powell said that the data they have shows the overall economic view stays steady since the last meeting. He also mentioned that rising costs for goods seem linked more to tariffs than to a deep rise in prices. He referred to upcoming data on consumer prices from the labor bureau.

Summary: What to Watch Next

  • Quantitative Tightening: The bank nears the end of shrinking its bond holdings, with reserves close to a safe level.
  • Interest Rates: There is no clear plan for rate moves; the bank works to balance price shifts and jobs.
  • Labor Market: Signs show slower worker growth and tighter conditions.
  • Economic Data: With ongoing data gaps, the summary of economic news needs care.
  • Interest on Reserves: Paying interest on reserves helps the bank steer short-term rates. No plan exists to stop these payments despite some political criticism.

Powell’s words make it clear that even as the Fed ends one part of its plan, its path depends on new data and ongoing challenges in price and work problems.

This article is based on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on October 14, 2025, at the business economists’ meeting, with extra information on how the Fed manages its monetary policy.

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Treasury Secretary Bessent Accuses China of Economic Sabotage Amid Trade Tensions

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Accuses China of Trying to ‘Pull Everybody Else Down’ Amid Economic Struggles

In a recent talk with the Financial Times, the US Treasury head Scott Bessent sharply criticized China’s economic plan. He said China, which now faces deep money problems, tries to pull the world down with it.

Export Controls on Critical Resources Stir Controversy

Bessent spoke after Beijing announced on October 9, 2025 a new set of limits on exports. China set these limits on rare earth materials meant for military work. Rare earths help power advanced devices. The United States needs them to run defense systems like the F-35 jet, Tomahawk missiles, and smart bombs.

Bessent said China plans its move to slow the global pace. He warned that while China uses this tactic to slow down trade, it will end up suffering the most from its own controls.

Heightened Tensions Ahead of Key U.S.-China Meeting

These moves add strain just before a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In reply to the export limits, President Trump said he will tax Chinese goods by 100% starting November 1, 2025, and he even hinted that the meeting could be canceled.

The trade dispute has put pressure on global markets. Major Wall Street indexes dropped sharply when the news spread.

Economic Struggles and Global Impact

Bessent said China is now near a recession or worse. He claimed the nation tries to send out its problems by stopping exports. He warned that these hard measures hurt China’s reputation around the world.

• China’s export limits target rare earths and minerals that drive modern tech.
• The move has sparked worry in US defense and factory circles.
• The tension has led to steep taxes and talk of ending talks.
• Market moves show investors fear long-lasting rough patches in US-China trade.

Looking Ahead

With the US-China meeting close, many around the world now watch to see if talks can lower the strain or if the dispute will keep growing and shake up global trade and safety.

This article is based on confirmed statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as reported in the Financial Times and market developments leading up to mid-October 2025.

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UK Labor Market Deterioration Fuels Rate Cut Speculation as Sterling Slips

UK Labor Market Weakens, Sparking Speculation of Bank of England Rate Cuts as Sterling Falls

October 14, 2025 — The UK labor market shows signs of weakening. Recent numbers pull market interest toward a possible rate cut by the Bank of England in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sterling falls as market players see more economic uncertainty.

Key Labor Market Indicators Signal Softening Conditions

The unemployment rate in the UK climbs to 4.8% in August from 4.7% in July. This change points to a cooling market that could ease pressure on wages. In the same time, average hourly earnings (including bonuses) rise by 5% year-over-year for the three months ending in August. This faster wage growth may keep prices high and mix with other facts that the bank will weigh.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) share more details:

  • The number of payrolled employees drops by 10,000 in August and by 93,000 from August 2024 to August 2025.
  • Early numbers for September 2025 show another drop with 10,000 fewer payrolled employees.
  • Job vacancies fall by 9,000 from August to September 2025, marking the 39th straight month of fewer openings.
  • The claimant count goes up in September but stays lower than last year at 1.692 million.

Bank of England Rate Cut Views Grow Amid Mixed Signals

The mixed signals in the labor market stir thoughts of a softer monetary stance at the Bank of England. High unemployment may lead to less spending by consumers. That change might pull down inflation so a rate cut seems possible. Yet, strong wage gains may keep inflation above the target of 2% and make a cut harder.

In August, inflation steady at 3.8%, a rate that exceeds the bank’s target. With the rising wages, retail sales also move up by 0.5% in August. These points show that consumer demand still holds on even as prices rise.

BoE Monetary Policy Outlook

Sarah Greene, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, stated:

"I think that our monetary policy stance is still restrictive, and so I do think that Bank Rate is still on a downward path. But it’s less restrictive than it had been, and that’s a concern if you consider that inflation has been ticking up for the past year."

Her words show a careful view about a rate cut in the near future. Economists at ING now see a lower chance of a November cut. They look to early 2026 for a softer monetary policy. Their numbers show:

  • No more rate cuts in 2025.
  • A possible start of rate cuts in February 2026 with up to three cuts during next year.

Market Reaction: Sterling Under Pressure

After the labor market numbers came out, the GBP/USD pair wavered. Before the report, the pair fell to $1.33227, then swept up to $1.33521, and finally dropped to $1.33075 afterward. By Tuesday morning on October 14, GBP/USD rested at about $1.33079, down 0.18%. This move shows that investors hold back and lean toward a softer policy at the BoE.

Outlook for the Pound and Upcoming Economic Data

Analysts now watch upcoming UK economic releases. They look to the GDP report on October 16, inflation numbers on October 22, and retail sales with the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index on October 24. These figures will shape thoughts on the bank’s next steps.

If more signs of a slowing economy show, the pound may drop further. It could test the area of $1.3250 against the US dollar. A strong economic report, on the other hand, may boost the pair toward $1.35. Investors and experts will keep a close watch. They then decide how the soft labor market and steady wage growth will guide the path of the Bank of England in the coming months.

About the Author

Bob Mason brings more than 28 years of experience in finance. He works with currencies, commodities, alternative assets, and global equities. His work mainly tracks markets in Europe and Asia.

For ongoing insights and market news, stay tuned to official BoE announcements and new UK economic reports.

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Navigating Trade Winds: China’s Export Surge and Its Impact on APEC Summit Talks

China Export Boom Sets Stage for High-Stakes Trade Talks at APEC Summit

By Bob Mason | Published: October 14, 2025

China’s exports soared this September. Exports grew 8.3% over last year. This growth passed August’s 4.4% rise. U.S. tariffs stayed in place. Imports climbed 7.4%, too. These facts point to strong local demand and a trade pace that stays firm heading into Q4. ### Export Realignment Mitigating U.S. Tariff Impact

Data from CN Wire shows exports from January to September 2025 grew across many partners. ASEAN saw a 9.6% increase. The European Union grew by 5.2%. Exports to South Korea rose 2.0% and those to Japan climbed 5.9%. Yet, exports to the United States fell 14.9%. China shifts its exports to Africa, ASEAN countries, the EU, and Japan. This shift fills the gap left by a drop in U.S. demand.

Brian Tycangco at Stansberry Research said:
"China’s trade bounced back in September. Exports jumped 8.3% and imports by 7.4%. The trade surplus shrank a bit. President Trump’s trade war does not harm China’s export work because sellers now find new markets for products."

The World Bank now predicts China’s 2025 GDP will grow by 4.8%—up from April’s forecast of 4.0% and near the official 5% target.

Soybeans and Rare Earths Highlight Trade Sensitivities

Trade talks now focus on soybeans and rare earth elements. Soybean imports hit a record 12.87 million metric tons in September. This result may open room for progress in farm trade discussions.

In the week before China’s Golden Week, President Trump said Beijing cut back on soybean purchases to use them as a tool in talks. He spoke up in support of local farmers but did not add new tariffs then.

China then tightened controls on rare earth exports. These materials serve high-tech production. Chinese officials said there was no complete ban and that civilian licenses stay available. Still, shipments dropped 31% in September and 11% so far this year. These drops add to trade strains.

Domestic Implications: Labor Market and Consumption

Domestic issues mix with trade gains. In September, Chinese manufacturers cut staff for the third time in four months. Rising wages might spark more consumer spending. Unemployment climbed to 5.3% in August from 5.0% in June. Retail sales grew 3.4% in August compared to 4.8% in June. If export strength holds, companies may hire more and spending could rise—a change seen as key to China’s recovery.

Non-U.S. Trade Accelerating

China now moves exports beyond the United States. Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book noted that shipments to the U.S. dropped 27% for six straight months, while exports to other markets jumped 14.8%—their fastest gain since March 2023. Exports to Africa surged 56% and those to Latin America rebounded by 15.2%. This mix shields China’s trade efforts from U.S. tariffs and binds it tighter to global markets.

Market Response and Outlook Ahead of APEC Summit

Easing trade strains lifted mainland stock markets on October 14. The CSI 300 index rose by 0.89%, and the Shanghai Composite increased by 0.68%. Both indices approached their 2025 highs. News of a possible U.S.-China trade deal and steady growth has pushed gains. Year-to-date figures show the CSI 300 up about 17.9% and the Shanghai Composite by 16.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 29%. Still, analysts point out that trade frictions add risks and keep global markets alert.

Looking Forward: Trade Talks at APEC Summit

At the APEC summit, trade talks will focus on key issues. Strong data gives China a firmer stance. Topics such as soybean trade and rare earth export rules are on the agenda. Markets and policymakers now watch to see if talks will ease strains or stir further issues. What happens next may change global trade patterns and economic forecasts in the coming months.

For ongoing updates on markets, trade, and economic forecasts, stay tuned to FXEmpire.

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Slovakia’s Struggle: Navigating Fiscal Consolidation Amid Economic Slowdown and Austerity Fatigue

Slovakia Faces Growing Fiscal Consolidation Fatigue, Threatening Medium-term Fiscal Sustainability

October 13, 2025 | By Alessandra Poli, Sovereign and Public Sector Analyst, Scope Ratings

Slovakia faces a heavy challenge. Its growth slows as fiscal plans tire the public. The government set a third fiscal plan for 2026 to cut the budget gap in a weak economy. Doubt grows as outside pressures and strict rules mix and hurt safety.

Ambitious Consolidation Amid Slowing Growth

In late September, the government approved a fiscal plan worth about EUR 2.7 billion. This sum nears 2% of GDP. The plan comes after similar steps in 2024 and 2025. Those steps tried to reverse past losses from softer budgets.

Slovakia’s export-based economy meets headwinds. US tariffs rise and key European partners slow. Scope Ratings now predicts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025. Before, the rate was 1.5%. In 2026, growth is expected at 1.2% instead of 1.7%. This rate lags behind Poland at 3.1%, Slovenia at 1.8%, and the Czech Republic at 2.3%.

Fiscal Measures and Their Economic Implications

The new plan focuses on revenue rules. The government makes personal income taxes steeper. It also raises contributions for health and social funds. This mix aims to cut the fiscal gap from about 5% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% the next year. Tax moves may lower local spending and business activity.

Some rules are short term. The plan cancels two public holidays for now. It freezes wages temporarily and stops inflation updates on extra pension pay. Because these moves are brief, new cuts might be needed later.

On spending, the government did not explain EUR 1.3 billion in planned cuts. Many savings may come by ending energy subsidies worth EUR 435 million set earlier. Other cuts will likely hit public administration and local budgets while keeping pensions and social aid safe for those in need.

Risk of a Fiscal Consolidation Trap

Slow growth and tax-heavy plans may trap the economy. This trap can slow growth so far that more cuts become needed. Scope Ratings sees public debt growing from 59.3% in 2024 to about 69% by 2030. Military spending might also rise. Slovakia must now reach NATO’s target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035. This is a jump from 2% in 2024. Soon, the politics of the 2027 elections may also limit further cuts.

Looking Ahead

Slovakia has a long road to keep its budget safe. The government must balance hard plans with outside pressures and local needs. Watching fiscal steps and the economy remains key as Slovakia moves through hard times ahead.

About the Author:
Alessandra Poli is an Analyst in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings, with a focus on ratings and research for public-sector borrowers.

For more economic news and forecasts, visit FXEmpire’s Economic Calendar and Market Coverage.

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China’s Exports Surge 8.3% Defying Tariffs: How It Impacts Global Markets and Currency Dynamics

China’s Exports Rise Sharply by 8.3% in September, Defying Tariff Pressures; Aussie Dollar Gains While Hong Kong Stocks Dip

October 13, 2025 – By Bob Mason

China’s export industry shows strength this September. Shipments jumped by 8.3% from last year. That jump marks the fastest rise in half a year. The increase eases fears linked to tariffs set by the Trump administration. Strong trade numbers pushed up the Aussie dollar. Meanwhile, stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China fell as US–China tension stayed high.

Robust Export Growth Exceeds Expectations

Officials released new data on Monday. Exports climbed 8.3% in September. In August, exports had risen only 4.4%. Experts had expected a 6% rise. Imports also grew by 7.4%. In August, imports had grown by just 1.3%. New data shows that trade is moving fast. The rise also fits with other proof from manufacturing. The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index went up to 51.2 from 50.5 in August. New export orders increased for the first time since March. This shows that makers are switching shipments away from US demand amid tariff disputes.

Market Reactions: Currency Strength and Equity Market Caution

The trade report set off mixed market moves. The Aussie dollar rose. It went from $0.65246 before the data to a high near $0.65292, and closed at $0.65278—up about 0.83%. Before the report, it had already gained 0.79%. The close economic ties between Australia and China make this shift clear. China accounts for roughly one-third of Australia’s exports, which matters a lot. In contrast, stock markets did not match the strength. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2.42% to 25,655 in Monday’s morning session. Mainland indices fell too: the CSI 300 lost 1.27%, and the Shanghai Composite slid 0.98%. Investor worry stayed high following last week’s changes amid trade talks.

Outlook: Inflation Data, Trade Tensions, and the APEC Summit in Focus

Market watchers keep a close gaze on US–China trade talks. They focus on a meeting scheduled from October 31 to November 1 under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation banner. Leaders from the US and China may meet. They might show progress or hint at more disputes. Traders now also wait for China’s inflation report set for October 15. Economists see a slowdown in deflation for September. This news may boost market risk and push up interest in risk-sensitive assets like the Aussie dollar and regional stocks. If trade tension grows, markets may react by dropping further. If disputes cool off, the mood among investors may improve.

Summary

  • China’s exports grew 8.3% in September, the fastest in six months.
  • Imports rose by 7.4%, far above expectations.
  • The Aussie dollar climbed on strong trade data from China.
  • Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock indices fell amid US–China trade tensions.
  • Upcoming inflation data and the APEC meeting will guide market moves.

About the Author
Bob Mason brings over 28 years of financial market experience, in currencies, commodities, and global equities, with a focus on European and Asian markets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.

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Labor Department Resumes Work on CPI Inflation Report Amid Government Shutdown, Data Release Delayed

Labor Department to Release Key CPI Inflation Report Amid Government Shutdown; Other Data Delayed

Even as the federal government shuts down, the Labor Department restarts work on the CPI report. The Department pays close attention to the link between the government pause and the need for inflation data. Inflation numbers for September will soon be seen, though they come with a delay.

CPI Report Resumption and Timing

A White House official notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Labor Department, now resumes work on the September CPI numbers. The report was planned nine days before. The report will now appear at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on October 24, 2025. The CPI shows price shifts for many goods and services over time. This link helps consumers, business people, and decision makers see inflation trends.

Reason for Resuming Work on CPI

BLS stopped work on the report when the government ran short on funds. The Social Security Administration needs the CPI for the third quarter. They must use the numbers to set cost-of-living changes by November 1. This need moved the report forward despite the shutdown.

Other Economic Data Releases Delayed

The CPI report goes ahead. Yet, other data—like the nonfarm payroll report—do not move forward. The shutdown has caused these delays. The Senate did not pass the funding bills and this pause now affects many government agencies and key data for economic analysis.

Context and Impact

  • The report gives insight into inflation trends and helps guide actions by the Federal Reserve, investors, and consumers.
  • The delay in other reports affects the view of markets and government plans.
  • The shutdown shows how a deadlock in funding changes government work and the flow of economic data.

Background on Shutdown

The shutdown has stopped many official reports and services. The Labor Department now puts CPI work ahead of most tasks. This step matters for planning cost-of-living changes for federal benefits.

Summary:

  • Labor Department and BLS will restart the CPI report for September even with the shutdown.
  • The CPI report will be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern—nine days behind schedule.
  • The report is needed to set cost-of-living changes before November 1.
  • Other key data, such as nonfarm payrolls, remain behind due to the shutdown.
  • The Senate has not passed the funding bills, keeping the shutdown in place.

This update gives some relief to markets and people who wait for inflation data, even as broader issues keep government work at a slow pace.

— Reporting by Alex Harring, CNBC

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Unlocking Extra Space: A Smart Strategy to Expand Your Home Without Moving

Here’s One Way to Increase the Size of Your House Without Moving

By Garry Marr, Financial Post, October 10, 2025

If you fear moving to a larger home, try a different plan. Many Canadians shed clutter and use self-storage. The housing market now drops prices by near 20% in some parts. The economy may stall, so people rethink how they use their rooms and things.

Decluttering: More Than Just Tidying Up

This trend is not about body shaming. It cuts the extra load of junk in your home. Most people own basements, garages, or spare rooms that hold items rarely used. Experts say these spaces hide "treasure" that one later sells for little, donates, or throws away. They warn that using living space as storage may cost more than paying for an outside option.

Home prices in cities such as Toronto top about $1,000 per square foot. Money spent on keeping unused items inside adds up quickly.

Self-Storage: The Thriving Industry

Here, the self-storage industry steps in. Canadians now use it more, nearing Americans who have almost twice as much storage per person. Ontario Municipal Property Assessment Corporation said Ontario has 7.3 million square feet of self-storage. That area equals roughly 2,200 NHL ice rinks. The space grew by 11% from 2020 in just three years. It does not slow much even if the housing market does.

Companies like 1-800-GOT-JUNK? now run over 175 franchises in Canada, the United States, and Australia. They help people downsize and sort their items. James Alisch, Chief Revenue and Operating Officer, notes that many Baby Boomers now downsize. Families then figure out what to keep, store, or toss.

Why Canadians Are Choosing Storage

Many factors drive the surge in self-storage:

• Homes now offer smaller spaces with fewer garages or basements.
• Higher home costs force better space use.
• Events like marriage, children, or downsizing add storage needs.
• Economic doubts block moves while boost storage needs.

Danny Freedman, Interim CEO of Forum Make Space, leads a firm that runs about 28 storage centers in Canada. He notes that a pandemic once raised use, and even after a small drop, demand stays high. New storage builds cost more. This fact lifts rental rates.

The Hidden Cost of Keeping Untamed Clutter

Many homes lose room use when they turn a space into storage. When you compare the cost of owning or renting a storage unit with lost room value, the storage cost can seem a good deal. Decluttering and using outside storage can make your house feel larger. This plan works without the stress or price of moving.

A Resilient Market

Investors now back self-storage. They see it as a safe bet amid long-lasting life trends. Colliers International says that even if new supply changes rates a bit, buyer trust remains strong. Growth in storage comes from steady life changes. This trend goes beyond simple economic ups and downs.

Final Thoughts: Declutter to Expand Your Living Space

For many Canadians, tight living spaces make life hard. Decluttering with self-storage can add extra room. Moving is one way to gain space, but smart use of what you own can work, too. It saves money and avoids the pain of relocating.

If you feel stuck with too much clutter or do not know where to start, many companies help remove junk and guide you in sorting your things.

This article is part of ongoing coverage on real estate and personal finance trends. Subscribe for full access to Financial Post content, including expert insights and market analyses.

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Boosting Productivity: Bank of Canada’s Rogers Advocates for Competition in the Financial Sector

Bank of Canada’s Carolyn Rogers: Competition in Canadian Financial Sector Key to Boosting Productivity

Toronto, October 9, 2025 – Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, said competition in Canada’s financial firms can boost productivity. She spoke at the Canadian Club in Toronto. In her speech, Rogers linked ideas closely. Each word connects directly to the next, so the message stays tight and clear.

Productivity Slump Poses Urgent Challenge

Canada’s productivity has stalled. Rogers calls this an emergency. New data shows a 1% drop in productivity in the second quarter of 2025. This drop is the largest in three years. It comes as trade tensions with the United States rise. Rogers links the drop to the need for reforms.

She explained, “Higher productivity won’t make Canada immune to U.S. trade policy, but it would help buffer the effects of tariffs.” Rogers adds, “This is the clearest path to boosting real wages, and it helps make life more affordable.”

Competition as a Driver of Innovation and Efficiency

Rogers says competition forces firms to work fast and smart. It makes them invest in new ideas and improve services. She uses a hockey metaphor: “You always skate a little harder in the game than you do in practice. And when the game starts, the tougher the opponent, the harder you skate.”

Today, six large banks hold about 93% of all banking assets. This strong hold brings stability. Still, strong ties can slow productivity, limit innovation, and reduce consumer choices. Rogers lets us know, “Many argue that this level of concentration has clear negative impacts.”

Emerging Reforms Aim to Enhance Contestability

Looking ahead, Rogers sees hope in new reforms. Regulators and technologists want to open up the financial field. One plan is open banking. Open banking gives consumers more control over their data. This change connects banks and buyers more closely and fairly.

Another plan is the Real-Time Rail project. This project will update payment systems so firms can send money instantly. Rogers points to a study that sees more than $3 billion in efficiency gains in five years. She builds the idea on a clear link between instant payments and more economic strength. “The experiences of countries with instant payment systems show that these systems have real benefits,” Rogers said.

Balancing Competition with Stability and Inclusion

Rogers also warns that more contest does not mean no rules. Too much competition risks underinvestment and financial harm. It may also expose vulnerable groups to risky practices. Rogers stresses, “We need to ensure that while we encourage contestability in finance, transport, telecoms, and energy, we do not sacrifice stability or equal access.”

Global Regulatory Context

Rogers notes that other nations also shape their rules. The United States is cutting back on financial sector rules. In the United Kingdom, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said regulation can hold businesses back. These signals point to a worldwide trend. Each idea is linked clearly to the next, with short connections that show how change can build fresh strength.

Conclusion: Embracing Competition for Economic Growth

In her closing words, Rogers told policymakers and leaders to “lean into” competition. This means taking steps that connect competition directly with stronger productivity, better wages, and a solid economy. She shows that even with tradeoffs, a clear and close link between ideas leads to innovation and growth.

For further details on this topic, subscribe to Financial Post for in-depth coverage and expert analysis on Canada’s evolving economic landscape.

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Resilience Amidst Challenges: China Stocks Surge Despite Weak Consumer Spending and Trade Tensions

China Stocks Rally Despite Soft Consumption Data and Rising Trade Tensions

By Bob Mason | Published: October 9, 2025, 03:43 GMT+00:00

China had a long Golden Week holiday. Soft data on spending and rising US–China trade tensions mark the scene. When markets reopened after the break, Chinese stocks jumped to new heights.

Weak Consumption Data Challenges Economic Optimism

China’s Golden Week shows a softer pace in spending. Passenger trips from October 1 to 5 grew 5.4% from last year. This rise is slower compared to the 7.9% climb seen during the May Labor Day holiday. The result creates a worry over local buying power. The government set a goal of 5% GDP growth for 2025. Research from Julius Baer, cited by CN Wire, points to a roughly 10% rise in domestic flight prices by year-end. The price move reflects a bid to hold prices steady instead of a rise in demand. Online sales managed steady shifts in home appliances and smart gadgets. Citibank analysts note that Chinese consumers spend slowly during the holidays.

Labor Market Pressure Weighs on Consumer Sentiment

Labor market data shows mounting pressure. Unemployment edged from 5.2% in July to 5.3% in August. Youth unemployment climbed to 18.6%. These changes lower consumer hope and slow spending. Companies face higher input costs, tariff stress, and soft prices. Firms cut staff and slow wage growth. These factors limit household budgets and the overall recovery pace.

Economic Outlook: Mixed Signals but Upward GDP Revisions

Forecasts for China’s growth mix good news with concerns. The World Bank raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8% from 4.0% earlier. Growth in 2026 is expected to hit around 4.2%. Some see weaker external demand and a smaller role for fiscal support next year. Analysts expect Beijing to aim for a 4.5%–5.0% GDP target in the next five-year plan, to be set at the Fourth Plenary Session. UBS economist Ning Zhang notes that future policy may focus on more consumer support and social benefits. Changes in technology and industry will shape the path ahead.

Rising Trade Tensions Ahead of the APEC Summit

Trade tensions between the US and China grew during Golden Week. US lawmakers pushed to bar more chip-making tool exports to China. Their aim is to slow China’s progress toward chip self-sufficiency and to challenge low-priced exports. China responded by setting export controls on tech linked to rare earth mining and magnet making. The new rules, effective December 1, require export permits for items with dual uses. These steps show Beijing’s response ahead of talks. The APEC Summit, set for October 31 to November 1, will bring leaders like President Trump and President Xi together. A deal could boost market mood, and more tension might lower investor trust.

Market Reaction: Equities Surge to New Highs

Weak economic signals and rising trade risk did not hold back the market. When trading resumed, the CSI 300 index climbed 1.17% in the morning. It hit its best level since January 2022. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.75%, reaching a new peak in the decade. Year-to-date, the CSI 300 gained 19.53% and the Shanghai Composite saw a 16.80% rise. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped 33.65% in 2025. Investors hope that new policy steps and calmer trade will boost the market further. Experts warn that a failure in US–China talks or weak policy measures could bring added risk.

Looking Ahead: Key Data and Policy Developments

Market watchers will monitor upcoming economic numbers and policy news from Beijing. They will focus on the outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session and the details in the five-year plan. The APEC Summit is set as a key event. Decisions there may shape forecasts and market paths for 2026. —

In summary, while weak consumer data and a soft labor market may slow local spending, China’s stocks stay upbeat on hopes of new policy support and progress in trade talks. The link between domestic management and world trade rules will shape China’s near future.

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