Tag Archive for: investing

Gold and Silver Remain Steady Amid Falling Yields and Mixed Job Market Data

Gold and Silver Stay Stable as Yields Drop and Dollar Weakens After Unexpected ADP Jobs Report

On October 1, 2025 gold and silver held their value. Yields on government bonds dropped. The U.S. dollar grew weaker. An ADP report came out. It showed that private jobs fell in September. No official data came because the government was shut.

Private Payrolls Experience Sharp Drop Amid Data Blackout

In the ADP report, private payrolls lost 32,000 jobs. This drop is the largest since March 2023. Economists had expected 45,000 more jobs. With the government closed, the usual labor figures did not arrive. This made the ADP report more useful for those watching the market. Policymakers and market actors noted its details. The Federal Reserve will meet on October 28–29, 2025. Broad-Based Labor Market Weakness Raises Concerns

Job losses were seen in many sectors. Leisure and hospitality lost 19,000 positions as summer travel ended. Other services saw 16,000 fewer roles. Professional and business services dropped by 13,000 jobs. Trade and transportation lost 7,000 roles. Construction cut 5,000 jobs. Only education and health services grew, adding 33,000 roles as schools reopened and healthcare needs stayed high.

An Uneven Impact on Businesses of Different Sizes

Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs. Mid-sized firms with 50 to 499 staff cut their payrolls too. Large companies with 500 or more workers added 33,000 jobs. This shows that small firms stay cautious when hiring, while big companies move ahead.

Wage Growth Moderates Despite Steady Year-Over-Year Gains

Wages grew by 4.5% over the year in September. This change stayed much the same as the previous month. For workers who switched jobs, wage growth slowed to 6.6% from 7.2% in August. This hints at a slower rise in pay. Even with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, Federal Reserve officials worry that labor demand may drop further. Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned of risks to the market.

Market Reactions Reflect Cautious Sentiment Ahead of Fed Meeting

After the ADP data came out, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell further. The U.S. Dollar Index also dropped. Prices for gold and silver stayed steady as they remain safe choices in uncertain times. U.S. equity futures fell at first and then held above their low points as investors watched for the delayed official report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Outlook: Labor Market Data Fuels Expectations for Fed Rate Pause or Cut

The unexpected drop in private jobs, along with missing official data and soft comments from Fed officials, feeds thoughts of a more cautious approach at the next FOMC meeting. Signs of slower wage growth and weaker hiring hint that the labor market might be softening. Investors see these changes as a sign that Treasury yields could fall and that assets sensitive to interest rates might do well if policy shifts.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is an experienced U.S.-based technical analyst and teacher with over 40 years in market analysis and trading. He studies chart patterns and price movements. He has written two books on technical analysis and is skilled in both futures and equities trading.

This article has been prepared based on information available as of October 1, 2025, and is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade any financial instruments. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Job Losses Mount: ADP Reports Sharp Decline in Private Payrolls Amid Government Shutdown

Private Payrolls Fall by 32,000 in September Amid U.S. Government Shutdown and Data Blackout

September data shows labor market signs that point to rising economic risk

In the United States, private payrolls lost 32,000 jobs in September. ADP released this report on October 1, 2025. The drop is the worst since March 2023. Economists had predicted a gain of 45,000 jobs. This result marks a shift in labor market behavior.

Context: Government Shutdown Delays Key Labor Data

A funding standoff in Washington, D.C. caused the first federal shutdown since 2018-2019. This shutdown stops the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from releasing its data as scheduled. In particular:

  • The BLS nonfarm payrolls report for September is delayed.
  • The weekly jobless claims figures are on hold.

Policy makers and market watchers now face a gap. They check these figures to assess the economy and set policy.

ADP Report Gains More Weight Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting

Without the BLS reports, the ADP numbers carry extra weight before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28–29, 2025. Market experts expect the Fed to cut its main borrowing rate by 0.25 point as signs of a slowing economy appear.

ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said that a strong second quarter did not stop a slowdown in hiring. US employers now show more caution when making new hires.

Sector and Company Size: A Closer Look at Job Changes

Job changes spread across several industries. Some areas show gains while others lose jobs:

  • Job gains: Education and health services added 33,000 jobs amid school reopenings and continuing trends in health care.
  • Job losses:
    • Leisure and hospitality lost 19,000 jobs as the vacation season wound down.
    • Other services dropped by 16,000 jobs.
    • Professional and business services shed 13,000 jobs.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 7,000 jobs.
    • Construction saw a drop of 5,000 jobs.

Service providers lost 28,000 jobs in total. In contrast, goods-producing sectors lost 3,000 jobs.

Business size also shows different trends:

  • Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees cut 40,000 jobs.
  • Large companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs.

Wage Growth Holds Steady

Despite fewer new hires, wage growth did not slow. Average wages increased by 4.5% year-over-year in September, much like in August. For workers who switched jobs, wage gains reached 6.6%, down slightly from the previous month.

Revised August Figures Indicate More Stress

ADP also changed its August data. The gain of 54,000 jobs was adjusted to a loss of 3,000 jobs. This move follows updated BLS figures. It adds to the picture of slowing hiring.

Economic Growth and Future Outlook

The U.S. economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025. The forecast now predicts a 3.9% gain in the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker. Still, some worry about the labor market. The unemployment rate stays low at 4.3%.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that if job demand falls faster than available workers, unemployment may rise in a short time.

Looking Ahead

With federal data on hold, private reports like ADP’s serve as key indicators of economic health. The slowdown in hiring, occurring with a government shutdown and rising uncertainty, will likely affect the Fed’s next moves.

Stay informed with CNBC for the latest updates on market-moving economic data and policy decisions.

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Consumer Confidence Dips as Wall Street Prepares for Data Blackout Amid Government Shutdown

Consumer Confidence Drops as Wall Street Prepares for Data Freeze Amid a Government Shutdown

Published September 30, 2025 – Updated Minutes Ago

Consumer confidence falls in September. People show less trust in the economy as Wall Street gets ready for a possible shutdown and a pause in key data releases.

The Conference Board released its report on Tuesday morning. The report shows that the consumer confidence index fell to 94.2, which is 3.6 points lower than August. This reading did not meet the Dow Jones estimate of 96.0 and is the lowest level since April this year.

Impact of the Federal Government Shutdown

Consumer trust falls while nonessential government work stops at midnight. Key economic data stops as well. Wall Street takes note and moves with caution in the market.

Signs of Continued Economic Caution

The Conference Board report shows weak economic signs beyond the overall index:

  • The "present situation" index falls to its lowest level in a year. It shows what people think about current business life.
  • Views on job availability drop for the ninth month in a row. This drop hits a new low in several years.

Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at the Conference Board, explained:
"Consumers judged business conditions much less positively than in recent months, and their view on job availability fell for the ninth straight month to a new multiyear low."

Labor Market Shows Signs of Weakness

The labor market has been weak in 2025. Job availability got a small lift in August compared to July. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said job openings reached 7.23 million in August. This is 19,000 more than in July. Yet, this figure is 5.5% lower—422,000 fewer—than the same period last year.

The BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is watched closely by Federal Reserve officials. The data shows signs of cooling:

  • Hiring slows down.
  • Total job separations drop.
  • Quits fall by 75,000. This drop shows that many workers feel less sure about finding new jobs after leaving current work.

Market and Economic Outlook

The pause in government data will make it harder for everyone to see the true state of the economy in the coming weeks. Wall Street takes a careful stance. There is worry that the shutdown will stop economic momentum and delay needed budget choices. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment stays low as job worries and economic risks persist in both local and global settings.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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China’s Manufacturing Woes Deepen: Margin Pressures and Job Losses Challenge Economic Recovery as AUD/USD Dips

China Manufacturing Margin Pressures Return and Job Losses Mount; AUD/USD Dips

By Bob Mason | Published: September 30, 2025, 02:43 GMT

China’s latest economic data shows two clear facts. Manufacturing margins feel pressure. Job cuts increase. These facts make financial markets act with care. Some numbers show more work in factories. Other numbers show profit gaps and more job losses. This mix affects key prices like the AUD/USD exchange rate.

China’s Private Sector Shows Uneven Economic Momentum

China’s private sector sends mixed signals. The purchasing managers’ report finds that orders in factories rise. The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI climbs from 50.5 in August to 51.2 this month. This rise, the highest seen since early this year, shows work growing slowly. New orders come in fast, as seen since February. New export orders show slow growth after a quiet period since March.

The report on services drops a little. The Services PMI stands at 52.9, just down from 53.0 last month. Staff numbers fall for the third time in four months. This drop raises job worries. Input prices jump at the fastest pace in almost a year. At the same time, average selling prices drop as firms face stiff cost pressure. This mix of price changes shows that even if demand grows a bit, profit margins shrink. Analysts note that higher input costs and lower output prices push margins down.

Official PMIs Present a More Cautious View

China’s official numbers add another layer. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the Manufacturing PMI rise gently from 49.4 to 49.8. This value still lies under the 50-point mark that separates shrinking from growing. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dips to 50 from 50.3 in August. The difference in these reports and the RatingDog survey comes from the range of companies asked. The private survey looks mainly at small firms that work for export.

Economic Challenges Persist Amid External Headwinds

China faces many challenges. The impact of U.S. tariffs cuts demand from other countries. This action pushes up costs for many makers. At home, retail sales slow. In August, retail sales grew 3.4% year by year. This pace is low when past growth often beat 12%. On the job side, unemployment inches up to 5.3% in August. Young workers feel this strain most. Their jobless rate jumps to 18.9% from 14.5% only three months ago.

These signals point to a slow market. Firms cut workers as profit margins shrink. Fewer jobs may slow private spending, which is important for China’s rebound.

Market Reaction: Initial Gains Fade Amid Margin Concerns

Market moves mirror these worries. The Hang Seng Index, a gauge of local stocks, climbs briefly to 26,785 points. Soon, it falls back to 26,712 as margin issues and hiring woes return to the mind of traders. In the world of currency, the Australian dollar also sways. The AUD/USD pair reaches $0.65845 before dropping to $0.65751. By the morning session on September 30, AUD/USD sits higher at $0.65809. This move shows a mix of hope and fear about China’s path and its effect on linked currencies.

Policy Support and Trade Talks Under Microscope Ahead of Golden Week

Beijing takes action when times are tough. Officials promise to adjust macro policies to suit the new facts. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to keep support steady and send in consumer subsidies ahead of China’s key Golden Week holiday, which starts on October 1. Investors now watch discussions on U.S.-China trade with care. Steps that cut tariffs may ease cost issues for exporters and help profits. A rise in trade tensions or delays with policy steps may add to global uncertainty and strain market feelings.

Outlook

The upcoming Golden Week holiday may shape spending and travel. Market watchers will track new data on buying trends and shifts in support plans. Bold new stimulus and progress in trade talks might revive market mood. At the same time, ongoing pressure on margins and job cuts may slow growth.

About the Author

Bob Mason brings over 28 years of experience in the global financial world. He studies currency, commodity, and stock markets across Europe and Asia.

For more detailed forecasts and strategies on navigating the evolving market landscape, see the economic calendar and related analysis at FXEmpire.

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Unprecedented Impacts: Why This Government Shutdown Could Shake the Economic Landscape

Government Shutdowns Usually Have Little Economic Impact — But This Time Could Be Different

Published September 29, 2025

By Jeff Cox, CNBC

In the United States, government shutdowns spark deep political fights. They hurt the economy and markets very little. Experts now see the 2025 shutdown in a new light because its facts point to long-term effects.

Why This Shutdown Could Be Different

A major sign is President Donald Trump’s plan to let some furloughed workers stay out of work for good. In past shutdowns, workers returned when the deadlock ended.

Michael McLean, a senior public policy analyst at Barclays, spoke in a client call. He said that if Trump acts on this plan, the economy could fall into new risks. "This plan breaks past practice, and it may bring new risks to a shutdown’s mild effect," McLean said.

Historical Context of Shutdowns’ Impact

Shutdowns in the past have harmed the economy little. This is mainly because federal workers get paid once the government restarts. Market drops have not lasted long and mostly recover fast. Some experts put the GDP loss at about 0.1 percentage point each week of a shutdown. The longest recent shutdown lasted 35 days between late 2018 and early 2019. That period was too short to affect the U.S. economy, which is worth $30 trillion.

Labor Market Vulnerabilities

The job market seems weak, especially in the Washington, D.C. area, which has many federal workers. Early in 2025, layoffs tied to changes in government jobs—supported by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency advisory board—hurt work stability in the area.

Now shutting down non-essential jobs and possibly making some furloughs final could add more strain. This chance makes experts like Nomura’s David Seif worried. He said that the impact on the October nonfarm payroll report, to be released in November, may hit harder than in past shutdowns.

Disruptions to Key Economic Data

A long shutdown may slow or lower the quality of important economic reports. The Department of Labor said it will stop most work, which stops the Bureau of Labor Statistics from sending out its reports. The monthly jobs report is one of them.

The consumer price index report may be late. That delay can change Social Security payments for many retirees. The Federal Reserve uses BLS reports to set interest rates and money plans. Without quick government data, the Fed will have to depend on private data. This mix of sources makes its job much tougher.

Market and Economic Outlook

Some experts still see a chance for a good outcome. Mark Cabana, head of rates strategy at Bank of America, said, "Even if the shutdown happens, we see little harm in the economy." He noted that a shutdown stops the flow of government reports and that the Fed would then use private data for its plans.

Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, said that the overall hurt to the economy may be “relatively mild.” She pointed out that the immediate loss of pay hits furloughed workers and contractors very hard.

Summary of Potential Impacts

  • Permanent Furloughs: President Trump’s idea to stop recalling some workers breaks old habits. This step risks long-term job problems.
  • Labor Market Risk: The weak job market, especially in areas with many federal employees, could get even harder.
  • Economic Data Delays: A shutdown may push back key reports (jobs, CPI). This change could affect Social Security and the Fed’s plans.
  • Market Response: Markets might drop at first but have shown quick recoveries in the past.
  • Household Strain: Furloughed workers and contractors face immediate money worries.

As the shutdown goes on, officials, experts, and investors will watch the changes with care. Many hope that a quick end comes with little hurt. But this shutdown may mark a stronger economic burden than those before it.

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Image credit: Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
Location: U.S. Capitol, Washington, D.C., September 29, 2025

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Navigating Uncertainty: How a Government Shutdown Could Impact U.S. Markets and Credit Ratings

Potential Market Risks Emerge as U.S. Government Shutdown Gains Attention on Trading Floors

September 29, 2025 — Past shutdowns saw calm markets. New signals hint that this shutdown may bring more risk. Traders and economists share their worry.

Background and Current Situation

The U.S. nears a shutdown deadline on Wednesday. Traders talk about a possible drop in the economy. On Monday, the Labor Department made plans that expect little news if government work stops. This step shows the government stays ready as doubt grows. President Donald Trump meets with top Congressional leaders to try to reach an agreement before the deadline. He warns that many federal workers may lose their jobs if the shutdown goes ahead. This warning sets the event apart from past shutdowns.

Credit Rating Concerns: A Growing Risk

Market talk now points to a shutdown that may harm the U.S. credit rating. In May 2025, Moody’s lowered the rating from Aaa to Aa1. It argued that political issues may hurt the economy. Extra cuts may come if:

  • Policy strength drops.
  • U.S. institutions lose power.
  • The economy shows less strength.
  • Global markets shift away from the U.S. dollar.

JPMorgan’s traders note a risk tied to the shutdown. They see that more cuts can harm U.S. Treasury bonds. A lower credit score raises yields, makes loans more costly for companies, and cuts the value of future earnings. This change may put pressure on the stock market.

Market Reactions and Analyst Views

Bond traders and economists keep a careful eye on the news. Chris Rupkey from FWDBONDS said a further downgrade feels like a small detail. He noted that Treasury bonds have stayed strong during past cuts. Rupkey trusts that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent can act fast if the risk grows. Joe Brusuelas from RSM doubts a new downgrade will happen. However, he warns that a long shutdown might slow hiring and investments. In his words, "Market participants have grown used to Washington’s ongoing fiscal errors."

Historical Context

Previous U.S. shutdowns did not shake the markets much. Today, however, a mix of political splits and economic doubts makes this shutdown stand out. Investors now watch closely for signs that government troubles might shake faith in U.S. money plans.

What’s Next?

Time runs short as leaders try to reach a deal before the deadline. The next few days will show if the shutdown triggers more than just basic work interruptions. It could affect credit scores, Treasury yields, and overall market calm.

Key points to watch in the coming days:

  • Progress in talks between President Trump and Congress.
  • Official government updates on plans and economic news.
  • Changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields and stock prices.
  • Statements or actions by rating groups and Treasury workers on credit issues.

Investors and market participants should track news closely as fiscal and political events change.

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Navigating the Storm: Ukraine’s Debt Sustainability Crisis Amid Accelerating IMF Talks

Ukrainian Debt Sustainability Challenges Persist Amid Accelerated IMF Programme Talks

By Dennis Shen, Updated September 29, 2025, 14:21 GMT

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine drags on into its fifth year. War pushes Ukraine into hard debt management and budget stress. Ukraine turns to frozen Russian funds and may alter its debt. Kyiv now talks with the IMF for new help.

Economic Growth and Fiscal Outlook

Scope Ratings shows that slow activity in early 2025 leads to weaker growth. Ukraine sees real GDP at 2.0% in 2025 and a slight rise to 2.25% in 2026. The budget gap stays wide at about 18.3% of GDP this year and 15.3% next year.
Debt climbs fast. End-2025 debt tops 95% of GDP, up from 91.2% at year-end 2024 and 49% in 2021. War spending and economic disruption keep debt on the rise.

The Impending IMF Programme and Financing Constraints

Ukraine runs an IMF Extended Fund Facility that gives USD 15.5 billion, set to end in March 2027. Kyiv now asks for a new four-year plan as war continues.
Military costs claim around 60% of the budget. This heavy use stops funds from flowing to pensions, public wages, and social aid. Ukraine now needs large sums from outside backers.
The IMF may support Ukraine only if debt stays manageable and repayment plans are set. War adds doubt and makes these checks tougher. Ukraine set goals to cut debt to 82% of GDP by 2028 and down to 65% by 2033. The long conflict now puts these targets at risk.

Funding Gap and the Role of Frozen Russian Assets

Scope Ratings and the IMF now see a need for nearly USD 65 billion more by 2027. This gap far exceeds Ukraine’s estimate of USD 38 billion.
Long-term, the budget gap may stick close to 20% of GDP each year, meaning about USD 50 billion must come each year from friends abroad. If US funds fall short, the EU may face more strain. The EU stands as Ukraine’s single largest funder even as it deals with its own limits.
Usual finance routes run nearly dry. The EU’s Macro-Financial Assistance+ and G-7 ERA loans (using cash from seized Russian assets) are nearly spent.
The European Commission now plans a new use of frozen Russian money. It will swap cash with short-term, zero-coupon EU bonds that keep Russian legal claims close. With this swap, Ukraine gets zero-interest “reparations” loans. These loans need to be repaid only if Russia stops fighting and later compensates Ukraine. Most now view these loans as free support rather than loans to pay back.
For cases where some political groups oppose, options like bilateral bond guarantees come into play. German leaders now back the plan for defense needs, and the UK now shows a similar idea with about GBP 25 billion.

Debt Restructuring Considerations

A worsening budget leads Ukraine to think about a bigger fix for its external debt. The latest IMF check finds Ukraine’s debt unsustainable without a strict debt fix plan.
Ukraine still works with G-7 banks on “perimeter external claims” that include GDP-linked securities. A new fixing round is set for late 2026. Today, talks focus on some G-7 loans, but a broader fix might show up if war costs remain high.

Conclusion

Ukraine now faces hard finance tests as the conflict goes on. Managing debt becomes tougher on a daily basis. Fast IMF programme talks and new plans that use frozen Russian funds may help steady Ukraine’s path. How well these steps work will shape Ukraine’s strength and its speed to recover when war finally ends.

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Uncertainty Over UK Tax Hikes: Chancellor Reeves Teases Economic Renewal Amid Fiscal Challenges

UK Finance Minister Keeps Public Guessing Over Potential Tax Hikes Ahead of Autumn Budget

Liverpool, UK — The United Kingdom’s finance minister, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, spoke at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Monday, September 29, 2025. Reeves, who stands as the key figure for state finances, kept her words short and clear. Her talk did not define any firm plans about tax changes before the Treasury’s Autumn Budget on November 26. Here, every word ties together as investors, economists, and the public wait for signals amid tight money matters.

Championing Economic Renewal with a Focus on Youth Employment

In her talk, Reeves placed Britain’s work growth and youth job support side by side. She tied each goal to practical steps. One step, named the Youth Guarantee, links young people with strong chances to work:

  • A link gives each youth a clear spot in college or an apprenticeship to learn a trade.
  • A tie pairs one-to-one guidance with job hunting.
  • A bond offers a paid work position for those out of work 18 months, giving them steady work and real skills.

Reeves said, “Every young person will be guaranteed either a place in a college, for those who want to continue their studies or an apprenticeship, to help them learn a trade vital to our plans to rebuild the country.” Her words build a connection between learning and work, setting a base to form a strong team that can drive growth.

Uncertainty Looms Over the Autumn Budget

Even as she built hope for youth jobs, Reeves stayed brief on tax changes or cuts in spending. Her silence links her decisions to strict budget limits. Experts tie the need for firm fiscal moves to the threat of a funding gap:

  • Analysts join in noting the Treasury might face a shortfall of up to £50 billion ($67.16 billion) in public funds.
  • This gap links to higher spending on welfare, lower tax collections from slow growth, and the climb of borrowing costs.
  • Past spending plans and shifts in welfare tie even tighter the strain on the budget.

Her rules for balance and debt form a tight chain. These rules work with a promise from Labour not to add taxes on workers, which now join a challenging economic scene.

Political and Market Pressures on Chancellor Reeves

Reeves, who once put in a £40 billion tax rise in her last Autumn Budget by aiming at business and employer funds, now feels pressure from party activists and market watchers. Since her win in July 2024, her party has tied itself to the idea of keeping taxes on workers low, yet tough economic facts now pull her in another way.

Financial experts now draw links between fiscal needs and rising taxes. Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group, noted, “The Chancellor is boxed in by her own numbers and political reality. Markets will demand discipline, but her party will demand action. The path of least resistance is higher taxation.” Rising gilt yields and a wide gap tie the need to pull resources from more spots.

Her emotions in parliament, seen when she stood weakened by pressure, add to the links of worry. Rumors in the market about her job add more links in the chain, though she still holds the support of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Signals From the Chancellor and Prime Minister

In her recent talks, Reeves made a clear connection between current limits and future tax plans:

  • Asked about keeping the income tax levels steady, she said, “I’m not going to be able to do that,” and tied the change to a new global money scene with ongoing conflicts and trade issues.
  • Both Reeves and Starmer bind themselves to Labour’s promise not to raise VAT, a tax that links to many goods and services.

Her simple words and the global shift together let us sense that some tax moves may come in the new budget.

Looking Ahead

With tough money challenges and a tight public fund, all eyes stay fixed on Chancellor Reeves as she prepares the Autumn Budget. Her work ties growth, support for those at risk, party promises, and strict money limits. The Youth Guarantee binds hope for young people to a strong plan. Yet, tax changes continue to pull on every part of our economy.

For continuous updates on the UK budget and financial news, stay tuned.

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The Double-Edged Sword of Wealth Effect: How Stock Market Growth is Propping Up the Economy Amid Rising Risks

The Wealth Effect: Why A Resilient Stock Market Might Be Masking Recession Risks

Many strong forces hit the economy. Tariffs hurt trade, political doubt grows, and the job market stays slow. Yet the U.S. stock market shows strength in 2025. This strength holds up consumer spending. It stops the slide toward a recession that many experts expected earlier.

Stock Market Growth Powers Consumer Spending

New data shows strong numbers in key parts:

  • Consumer Spending: In August, spending rose more than expected.
  • Income: Households earned more than forecasts.
  • Housing: New home sales hit a high not seen in three years.
  • Inflation: Price rises stayed low and steady.

This power comes from the wealth effect. When assets grow in value, stock holders feel more sure. They then spend more money.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, spoke on CNBC. He said high net worth households drive most of the spending gains. The stock market indexes, like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite, posted strong gains in 2025:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9% year-to-date
  • Nasdaq Composite: +23% year-to-date

A Tale of Two Consumer Sentiments

The University of Michigan survey shows two trends:

  • Consumers with large stock holdings feel steady. They see their portfolio values rise.
  • Those with few market ties feel less sure and drift away from the market trend.

The top 10% of earners hold almost 87% of the market, as noted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. This gap shows why growth feels uneven.

The Double-Edged Sword of Market Dependence

A lively stock market now helps the economy. Yet some warn that this help carries risk. Zandi said:

"The economy is at risk if the market falls for any reason. When screens show losses, people save more and spend less. With a weak job market, this risk may start a recession."

The S&P 500 now stands at 22.5 times the expected earnings for the next 12 months. This level is above both five-year and ten-year averages, which suggests prices may be too high.

Broader Economic Data Still Shows Strength

Other data also marks a strong economy:

  • GDP Growth: In the second quarter, GDP revised up to a 3.8% annual rate. The Atlanta Fed predicts a 3.9% rate for Q3.
  • Durable Goods & Home Sales: Both parts show gains that mark strong demand.
  • Job Market: Job growth remains soft, but low layoffs keep employment steady.
  • Inflation: Core inflation sits at 2.9% each year. This rate is above the Fed’s target of 2% but fits expected trends. This trend may lead banks to lower rates later.

Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Northlight Asset Management, said:
"Even when surveys show worry, people keep spending. This spending lifts company profits above forecasts."

The Fine Line Ahead

Many consumers stay cautious, especially those not in the top investor group. Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, explained that while gains help stock owners, regular buyers face higher prices at the checkout—like rising food costs that lower confidence.

"People watch risks from inflation and job worries. Many feel unsure about the future even if spending does not drop," she said.

In the end, the economy rides on thin ground. The stock market’s strength has stopped a wider downturn so far. Still, if moods shift, that support may fade quickly.

Conclusion

The wealth effect from a rising stock market helps the U.S. economy. It underpins consumer spending and builds growth signs that stray from recession forecasts. High prices and the concentration of gains in a small group of investors bring risk. Policymakers, businesses, and consumers now face a careful balance in which the market’s path may shape the future.

For the latest updates on the markets and economy, stay tuned to CNBC’s coverage and expert analysis.

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Score Media Executive Settles Insider Trading Case, Facing Nearly $600,000 in Penalties and Profits from Tipping Scheme

Couple Settles Insider Trading and Tipping Case in Score Media Acquisition

By Barbara Shecter | Financial Post | September 26, 2025

A former executive at Score Media & Gaming Inc. reached a settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission. The commission charged him with insider trading and tipping. The charges relate to the US$2 billion acquisition by Penn National Gaming Inc.

Insider Trading Allegations and Settlement Details

Huy Le Huynh worked as a Vice President of Finance at Score Media. He admitted that he used secret information when he traded. He bought call options with a third party just before the public learned of the takeover. The purchase cost around US$7,000 and made him profits of over US$311,000. Each word here connects closely to the next to keep ideas tight and clear.

Use of Intermediaries and Trading Arrangement

Huynh learned of the acquisition plans before they were public. He told his wife, Thi Anh Nguyet (Nancy) Pham, who was on leave from Bell Canada. Both knew that buying or selling Score Media securities was banned at that time. Huynh then asked his wife’s long-time friend, Jessica Tam, for help. He gave Tam US$10,000 to deposit in her Tax-Free Savings Account. Huynh told her, in person and on the phone, to buy Score Media call options. The plan was simple: split the profit so that 80 percent went to Huynh and Pham, and 20 percent to Tam.

In late July 2021, Tam bought 184 options for US$5,152. She then bought another 120 options for US$1,800. After the takeover was announced, Tam paid Huynh and Pham about US$270,000 in cash. The trio used coded language—terms like “toys” referred to sums of money—over WhatsApp to share the plan details.

Efforts to Conceal Involvement

After trading, Huynh told Tam to delete his contact details from her phone. He also gave her a lawyer’s contact in case anyone questioned the trades. Next, he asked Tam to use some of the remaining money to invest in other securities. Here, every instruction connects directly with its purpose, ensuring the steps stay clear.

Pham admitted that she knew about the acquisition before it was announced. She also said she was aware of the plan that Huynh and Tam made. However, she did not know all of the finer details of the scheme.

Cooperation and Penalties

The couple had no past record of securities violations. They cooperated fully with the OSC investigation. This cooperation helped reduce the penalties. In the end, Huynh and Pham paid nearly US$600,000 in penalties and disgorged profits. Huynh accepted his role in the insider trading, and Pham admitted that her actions hurt the public interest.

Broader Implications

This case shows that Canadian regulators remain alert to insider trading. The OSC works hard to keep markets fair and to protect confidential details. They continue to monitor trades and enforce penalties for misusing private information.

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