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October Job Openings Plummet to 4-Year Low Amid Government Shutdown: What It Means for the Economy

Job Openings in October Fall to Lowest Level Since Early 2021, Indeed Data Reveals

Published November 4, 2025 – Updated An Hour Ago

Job openings in the United States dropped in October. They reached their lowest count since February 2021. This fall came as the country struggled with a government shutdown and a slowing economy. Data from the job search site Indeed shows the decline. The report fixes words close to each other, so readers follow the links fast.

Key Insights from Indeed’s Job Postings Index

The Job Postings Index from Indeed counts new job ads. It uses a baseline of 100 set in February 2020. As of October 24, the index showed a score of 101.9. The score tells us that:

  • The index went down by 0.5% from the start of October.
  • There is a roughly 3.5% drop since mid-August, based on the last data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This fall in job ads shows that companies are hiring less while the shutdown grows.

Government Shutdown’s Impact on Labor Market Data

Usually, the BLS gives its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Tuesdays. This report helps Federal Reserve officials and other planners view the job market. Now, since the shutdown stops the report, experts depend on other tools such as Indeed’s real-time data.

The latest JOLTS report from August 2025 stated:

  • Job openings reached 7.23 million; the count was the same as in July but was down 7% compared to January.

The drop in ads shows the same trend in both sets of numbers.

Salaries Also Reflect Labor Market Cooling

Data from Indeed shows slower wage growth in new ads:

  • Year-over-year wage rises slipped to 2.5% by August, down from 3.4% earlier in the year.

This shows that employers are holding back on raising pay. The slower wage rise hints at caution amid the current economic mood.

Federal Reserve Responds to Labor Market Developments

The weakening job market has led the Federal Reserve to act. At the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), members voted 10-2 to cut the main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This move set the new rate range at 3.75%-4%. The change shows how policy makers worry about the job market even if inflation remains above the 2% aim.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said:

“Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. We’re looking at a range of numbers in real time. We are not waiting on the unemployment report. There is cause for worry because the unemployment rate edged up over the summer.”

Upcoming Labor Market Reports Delayed

The usual nonfarm payrolls report, which many watch closely, will not come out this week because of the shutdown. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected this report to show:

  • A loss of about 60,000 jobs in October.
  • An increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Without the official report, experts use other numbers like those from Indeed to judge the job scene.

Summary of Recent Labor Market Trends

  • Indeed Job Postings Index: Fell to 101.9 in late October, the lowest since February 2021.
  • Job Openings: Down roughly 7% from January, with 7.23 million openings reported in August (BLS data).
  • Salary Growth: New job ads show that wage increases slowed to 2.5% year-over-year by August.
  • Federal Reserve Action: The Fed cut interest rates as job market risks grew.
  • Data Gaps: Official jobs reports for October are delayed due to the government shutdown.

The government shutdown keeps the future uncertain. All who follow the economy, from planners to job seekers, watch these trends as more data comes in.

For ongoing updates on job trends and financial news, follow trusted sources and real-time job data sites like Indeed.

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Bessent on Tariffs: Unpacking U.S. Strategies Ahead of Supreme Court Decision

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Highlights Multiple Tariff Options Amid Supreme Court Case

November 4, 2025 — The Supreme Court will soon hear a key case that questions the law behind President Trump’s tariff steps. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration keeps many plans close at hand if the court rules against the current tariff method.

Supreme Court Case to Define Presidential Trade Authority

The case asks if President Trump went beyond his power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act when he set high tariffs on U.S. trading partners. The ruling will change how much control a president holds over trade moves.

During a CNBC Squawk Box interview on Tuesday, Secretary Bessent said:
"There are many other authorities we can use. IEEPA is the simplest option. It gives the U.S. and the president strong power to negotiate. The other paths are more tangled but may work well."

Alternative Legal Authorities for Tariff Actions

If the court cuts back on the use of IEEPA, Bessent mentioned two laws that could help:

  • Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: This rule lets officials put tariffs into play for national security concerns.
  • Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: This rule aims at stopping unfair trading actions.

These laws do not give the broad "emergency" power that IEEPA does. They might be more complex to use but still work to guard U.S. trade goals.

Significance of the Court’s Decision

Bessent stressed the meeting on Wednesday matters a lot. He said the case touches on a key policy by the Trump administration. He noted that the Supreme Court usually avoids changing major executive actions and hinted at a positive result.

Status of U.S.-China Relations

The Treasury Secretary also spoke well of the current U.S.-China ties. After a recent summit in South Korea, Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on steps that pulled back some of the harsh tariffs from ongoing trade battles.

Bessent said:
"It was a very good meeting. Both sides talked with clear respect. I think President Trump is the one leader whom President Xi respects. The ties are in a good state."

He confirmed plans for two state visits in 2026—one in Beijing and one in the United States—showing that talks will continue.

As the Supreme Court weighs this key matter, all eyes are on how its choice will shape U.S. trade rules and the scope of presidential power. Treasury officials stress that, no matter the outcome, the administration keeps solid plans ready to guard American economic interests.

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Navigating the New Normal: White-Collar Layoffs, AI Advances, and Economic Realities

White-Collar Layoffs: When AI Meets Old-School Cost Cutting and Tariffs

In recent weeks, big firms like Amazon, UPS, and Target have cut over 60,000 white-collar jobs. Each name links to a cost cut and a shift in market forces. This news sparks talk about the labor market, AI’s role, and other economic pulls.

The Layoff Wave and Its Causes

Experts point out that cost cuts, tariff burdens, and market fears drive these layoffs. They note that AI is only one part of the story. The links between ideas run close to show cause and effect:

  • Amazon grew fast during the pandemic, and its staff numbers rose quickly. Now the firm cuts about 14,000 jobs from its corporate team. The company sees these cuts as a way to trim excess that had built up, not a sign of AI taking over.
  • UPS shifts its work away from lower-return projects with Amazon. It now moves toward health care and return services. This change brings the need to quiet some facilities and reduce fleets, which results in job cuts.
  • Target and similar firms trim their teams to run leaner operations. They adjust how they work as consumer habits change in a stiff economy.

The Role of AI: Tool, Not Scapegoat

Experts like Peter Cappelli, a management professor from the Wharton School, say AI is not the lone cause of these wide job losses. They note that introducing AI is hard and slow.

"Using AI to save jobs is a hard and slow task. Many think it is simple and cheap, but it is not," Cappelli said.

Firms invest in AI to build long-term efficiency and cut costs. Still, many of the cuts come from worries about slow spending, high inflation, and tariff demands that push rates to near-record highs.

Economic Backdrop: Rising Costs and Uncertainty

The global market wrestles with many pressures that fuel these layoffs:

  • Inflation cuts the force of buying power.
  • Rising late payments signal that many households feel the strain.
  • Lower consumer hope hints at guarded spending.
  • High tariff rates jack up costs for firms that use global supply lines.

A government shutdown has delayed key labor numbers. This delay feeds the talk about the health of the job market and ideas of a slowing white-collar scene that AI may help push.

Company-Specific Factors

Firms cut jobs for many reasons. Here are some clear links between actions and causes:

  • Starbucks let go of about 2,000 corporate workers as sales slowed and it moved into a recovery plan.
  • Meta’s AI unit reduced its group by about 600 positions. It aimed to work more fast and cut extra layers.
  • Intel dropped roughly 15% of its jobs after a heavy investment in chip plants did not meet the needed demand.

John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, sees this change as a sharp shift. He says the old rule of “no hire, no fire” has come to an end. Retail, shipping, and distribution show some early signs.

Amazon’s Transformation Amid AI Investment

Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy describes this shift as a move toward a startup spirit by cutting red tape and extra layers. The company now focuses its ties on areas like AI and cloud work.

  • Amazon plans to spend about $125 billion in 2025. This sum is up from past plans as the firm puts money into AI tools and services.
  • Jassy sees that the staff will shrink as AI works make jobs leaner. He makes clear that new hires for key roles still happen.

UPS’s Strategic Pivot and Layoff Deepening

UPS made changes this year as it switched from its largest partner, Amazon, to more profitable areas. This change will bring close links between plans and results:

  • Amazon-related shipments will fall by over half by mid-2026.
  • About 10% of UPS facilities will close.
  • The company will cut its vehicle and airplane fleets.
  • More jobs will be cut to match the new shipment levels.

CEO Carol Tomé says UPS now steers its own path. She links these moves clearly to a plan to boost profits.

Conclusion

The recent white-collar layoffs mix old cost-cutting steps with new tech and market challenges. AI shifts work and helps cut costs, but the main cuts come from fears of a slow economy, high prices, tariff stress, and the need to adjust fast.

Recognizing these clear links helps both workers and investors see behind the news. It shows a tougher and shifting arena where firms adjust in many small, connected ways.

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China’s Economic Strain: PMI Signals Challenges Ahead After Trade Truce

China Faces Growth Challenges as Manufacturing PMI Signals Economic Strain Post Trade Truce

By Bob Mason
Published: November 4, 2025, 01:55 GMT+00:00

China’s economy shows new strain. Recent numbers point to a hard time even after a high-profile trade truce with the United States. In September, strong signals made many feel positive about reaching a 5% growth goal for 2025. In October, the PMI brought a pause. The measure warns that China may need more stimulus to keep up its pace.

Trade Truce Brings Temporary Relief, Long-Term Doubts Remain

A trade pause between former President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping eased some tension. The two sides put in place a one-year break on U.S. fees for China-linked vessels starting November 10. This step seeks to calm disputes on the seas and cut costs on shipments to the United States. In return, China stopped its retaliatory moves that had fueled more conflict. Talks continue to address U.S. worries on China’s hold over the maritime scene and to form new shipbuilding links with South Korea and Japan.

Analysts are not sure the truce will hold for a long time. Derek Scissors, Chief China Economist at China Beige Book, told CNBC that the deal left U.S. policy much like it was at the start of Trump’s term. He noted that China chose to wait on putting export controls on rare earth minerals. This choice hints that China may not yet be ready or able to enforce wide restrictions.

Manufacturing PMI Reveals Underlying Economic Pressures

September brought signs of speed in the economy, but October’s Manufacturing PMI spoke of new pressures. The index showed export orders dropping fast over the last six months. This force made makers cut export prices for the first time since May—a sign that outside demand is soft.

Makers now face thinner margins. This change might slow wage growth or even lead to cuts and blur job chances. While there was a small rise in manufacturing jobs in October, many warn this boost may not be steady. Such shifts could hurt consumer spirit and spending at home—both key for China’s growth plan.

Rising competition and weak demand add to the strain on prices. Trade numbers add another twist. Chinese exports climbed 8.3% from last year in September. Yet shipments to the United States dropped 27%. This gap has sparked ideas that more goods might be sent via third countries to dodge tariffs.

Policy and Trade Risks: Country of Origin Rules and Transshipments

Looking ahead, Chinese makers may face policy checks as the U.S. studies tougher moves to stop goods moving by indirect routes. New rules on a product’s origin might come soon. These steps could shrink the demand for Chinese goods if buyers try to avoid extra charges.

U.S. plans to cut China’s hold on global shipping and supply lines may add more trade strain. The current trade pause gives both sides about one year to adjust. Yet deep-rooted trade gaps and lower investment seem set to stay, keeping risks alive.

Market Reaction and Outlook

After news of the trade truce, mainland Chinese stocks wavered. After a pullback on October 30 from their 2025 highs, indexes like the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite steadied. They now trade near their best marks for the year, as investors show guarded hope.

The CSI 300 climbed 18% this year. It still stays behind Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which went up 30%. Many in the market now watch upcoming economic reports. These reports will shape views on local spending, export strength, and government plans.

Conclusion

China’s goal of 5% economic growth in 2025 now faces tough tests from both home and abroad. The Trump-Xi trade pause gives a brief break and a chance for talks. But problems in the manufacturing sector, export drops, and trade policies keep the future cloudy. Beijing’s next steps—especially in support of jobs and injecting stimulus—will be key to keep the economy growing under these hard conditions.

Investors and leaders will keep a close eye on these events as China tries to balance growth hopes with new challenges in a fast-changing global trade road.

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U.S. Manufacturing PMI Dips Again: Signs of Hope for a Rebound Looming on the Horizon

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Contracts Again, But Hints of a Rebound Lie Ahead

By James Hyerczyk | Updated: November 3, 2025, 16:56 GMT

The U.S. manufacturing sector faces hard times as the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October shows contraction for the eighth month in a row. Recent numbers also show sparks of firming and a possible lift in activity that market watchers need to follow.

October Manufacturing PMI Shows Ongoing Shrinkage

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports that the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in October. It slipped a bit from 49.1 in September. A score lower than 50 tells us that the sector has shrunk again, though only a little.

While the main number shows continued trouble, nearby details in the report give a richer view. Some market experts ask if the manufacturing field is in a long dip or if it is in a pause before a rise.

New Orders Show Slow Change in Demand Decline

New Orders, a key sign of upcoming factory work, nudged up to 49.4 from nearly the same score last month. Even though this number still sits in the shrinking zone, it marks two months in a row with a small change.

Export orders rose a bit, moving from 43.0 to 44.5. These numbers show that while challenges like trade frictions and low global demand stay firm, their force might be easing now.

Since the numbers in New Orders and Exports improve slowly, experts warn that the sector has not yet turned completely around, but the worst drop in demand seems to be behind it.

Production and Inventory Numbers Give a Mixed Story

The production score slipped to 48.2 in October, a drop of 2.8 points since September. This turn shows factories still face hard work.

Yet, the data on inventories holds a small hope. The Inventories Index went down to 45.8, and Customers’ Inventories stayed very low at 43.9. This mix tells us that companies take from their stocks instead of building them up. This may help spark more work if demand grows soon. Analysts now wait to see if shops will pick up supplies quickly and boost factory work.

Employment Stays Weak but Shows a Small Lift

The job index for manufacturing dropped to 46.0 in October. This number marks the ninth month in a row of fewer factory jobs. Reports show that for every new hire, there were about 3.4 job losses. This warns us that factories remain wary of increasing their staff even as orders start to ease.

Prices Grow More Slow, But Material Costs Remain High

The Prices Index lessened to 58.0 from 61.9 in September. This change points to some relief in cost strain. Yet, prices stay high mainly because aluminum, stainless steel, and trade-related costs push them up. These factors continue to pinch the profit margin even as price pressure goes down a bit.

What Does This Mean for the Market?

Orders still sit in a better range, having gone up from 46.2 to 47.9, which means the order list holds up. Supplier delivery numbers moved to 54.2, showing that suppliers now work with caution amid shifting demand.

These facts, along with low inventories, hint at a chance for more work if demand does grow. A boost in production or new orders next month could quickly change the market view to a more hopeful one.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Hopeful

Even though the main manufacturing PMI number shows hard times, the inner numbers hint that the decline may be close to its lowest point. The small rise in New Orders, steadier backlogs, and low stock levels tell us that the sector might soon see a jump in activity.

Market watchers and traders are told to stay alert and keep a close eye on signs of restocking and steadier orders in the next few months. A quick change in production or New Orders could bring a fast shift toward a better market view.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a seasoned U.S.-based technical analyst and market educator. With four decades of experience in reading charts and tracking price moves, he has written two books on technical analysis and knows the futures and stock markets well.

This article serves as an information and learning tool. It does not give specific investment advice. Readers should do their own research and seek a financial advisor’s help before making any investment moves.

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Russia’s Bold Move: Reaffirming Ties with China Following Trump’s Success at Xi’s Table

Russia Reasserts Strategic Ties with China Following Trump-Xi Meeting

Hangzhou, China – November 3, 2025 — Russia sent a high-level group to Hangzhou soon after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. Moscow moves to renew and grow its bond with Beijing amid global shifts. Every word here links closely to the next to aid clear thought.

A Timely Delegation to China

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin led the group. They arrived in Hangzhou on Monday and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang over two days. During the talks, both sides signed many deals on trade, investment, energy, transport, agriculture, and space work, as reported by Russian state media.

Mishustin brought top officials from finance, agriculture, transport, economic development, and trade. The team also included the head of the space agency and the head of the nuclear firm. Their presence shows a strong drive to build ties in space and nuclear energy.

Strengthening an “Unprecedented” Partnership

Mishustin called Xi Jinping his dear friend. He said Russia and China share strong ties in a long, joint history. He spoke of a bond that grows even amid harsh Western actions. Li Qiang agreed, saying both sides stand by each other and set clear plans for talks. He noted that the two nations act as reliable neighbors who trust one another. TASS, a Russian news source, shared these words.

Context: The Geopolitical Backdrop

China is Russia’s main international friend. Beijing did not speak against Moscow during its war in Ukraine, which began in 2022. Their bond grew even before the conflict. In earlier steps, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi formed a deal with no limits. This deal made them closer on both global and economic fronts while easing Western pressures.

The U.S. Factor: Trump’s Meeting with Xi Jinping

The Russian group reached China just days after President Trump met with Xi in Busan, South Korea, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Trump called the meeting very good. He shared news of a one-year trade deal with China. The deal cut tariffs on Chinese rare earth metals and halved duties on fentanyl. These moves helped calm rising trade tensions. Moscow did not comment on the Trump-Xi meeting. Yet, its quick trip shows that Russia watches Beijing as it works with the U.S. This matters as ties with the U.S. fall.

Russia Targets Expanded Cooperation Amid Western Pressures

Mishustin and his team showed strong interest in the talks. The deals signed cover many areas where Russia seeks new paths in its economy and technology work. Russia aims to use its stronger bond with China to ease the strain of global barriers. Each agreement binds close words and ideas for easier thought.

Challenges and Outlook

Both leaders mentioned risks from outside forces, hinting at ongoing global pressures and political stress. They still sent a clear message of support for one another. Each step ahead will call on their shared strength. This bond lets both nations stand firm as global events change.

Summary of Key Points:

  • Russian Prime Minister Mishustin leads a high-level group to Hangzhou for two days of talks with China.
  • Many deals were signed to boost work in trade, energy, transport, agriculture, and space.
  • Leaders show that despite global pressures, Russia and China share a strong bond.
  • The visit came soon after Trump’s notable meeting with Xi and a major U.S.-China trade deal.
  • Moscow aims to counter global challenges with a tighter bond to Beijing.

This exchange shows how global ties shift as nations face new challenges. The ever-strong Russia-China bond is set to shape events in the coming years.

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China Faces Manufacturing Slowdown in October: Key Insights on Economic Impact and Currency Trends

China Manufacturing Growth Slows in October Amid Export Weakness; AUD/USD Experiences Slight Dip

By Bob Mason | Published: November 3, 2025, 02:33 GMT

China’s manufacturing shows lower speed in October. Export demand drops hard. Domestic buying keeps up, yet export work suffers. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moves from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October. This number stays above the 50 mark that marks growth as opposed to decline.

Key Highlights from October Manufacturing Data

• The PMI drops to 50.6. The number falls below economist guesses, which had been 50.9.
• Export orders fall. New export orders hit the lowest level since May.
• Domestic demand stays strong. New business from local buyers grows for the fifth month in a row.
• Factory jobs rise. Employment climbs at the fastest speed in more than two years.
• Input costs slow down. The rise in input prices comes with less speed than in September.
• Export prices cut. For the first time in six months, manufacturers lower export prices as they face tougher global rivals and low global demand.

Context and Expert Insight

China’s makers deal with two forces. Domestic demand shows strength, while export orders fall in a weak global market. The loss in export work hints at problems in the world economy.

Yao Yu, the founder of RatingDog, said,
"China Manufacturing PMI slowed in October. Out of all parts, only the job numbers climbed while others lost ground."

He stayed careful but hopeful. He noted that Beijing now follows a new plan to steady the economy and boost local sales. He added that new help from the government might push up factory work in the coming months.

Market Reaction: AUD/USD and Hang Seng Index

After the PMI news, markets moved fast:

• AUD/USD: After the PMI report, the Australian dollar went from $0.65416 to $0.65444 but later fell back near $0.65418 by 0.01%. The close trade link with China makes Australia worry over its economic path. Some traders now expect a rate cut by Australia’s central bank in November.

• Hang Seng Index: Hong Kong’s main index went up. It moved from 25,928 to 26,039 minutes after the message. Later, it ended up 0.51% higher at 26,038. Some hope that a deal between the US and China will help Chinese sellers soon.

Economic and Policy Outlook

Although factory work still grows, slower output and falling export orders call for care. China’s central bank and Beijing may use fresh measures to keep up the work as the world market stays weak.

Markets now watch these next updates:

• October Trade Data (due November 7): Experts wait to see numbers in imports and exports that may show more on global demand.
• Consumer Price Index (due November 10): New figures here will shape views on China’s money plans.

Strong trade numbers mixed with easing price falls might raise interest in Mainland and Hong Kong stocks and in currencies linked to raw materials, such as the Australian dollar.

Conclusion

China’s slower manufacturing pace in October shows the fine line between strong local buying and a difficult export scene. The recent US-China trade deal and the chance of more government help keep some hope alive.

Investors and officials will watch new economic numbers to see how well China recovers and to adjust plans as needed.

Bob Mason brings over 28 years of financial industry experience, covering currencies, commodities, equities, and macroeconomic analysis with a focus on Asian and European markets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not form financial advice. Readers should do their own research and talk to experts before making any investment decisions.

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Holiday Shopping Prices Poised to Rise: The Impact of Tariffs on Consumer Costs

Tariffs Likely to Influence Consumer Prices as Holiday Shopping Season Begins

During the holiday season, shoppers see tariffs in the prices they pay. Tariffs that stayed low during 2025 now weigh on costs. Experts note a stronger price change as retail work grows.

Background on Tariffs and Inflation

Tariffs began in April 2025 under the Trump administration. Countries send many goods that carry these tariffs. Inflation mostly stayed between 2.5% and 3% for the year. At first, tariffs did not move prices much.

Firms built up their inventory before tariffs struck. They took on more costs by keeping slimmer profits. Soon, as these stocks drop, companies pass more costs to buyers.

Tariffs’ Role in Inflation Measures

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave shows tariffs push consumer prices higher. Tariffs add about 0.5 percentage points to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. In September 2025, the core PCE reached 2.9% with tariffs, and about 2.4% without them.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees rising inflation as the bank makes plans around its 2% goal, set aside from food and energy.

Impact on Consumers and Retail Prices

Tariffs add real costs for buyers. Consumers shoulder 50% to 70% of these extra charges. Clothing prices jumped 0.7% in September 2025. Other items such as coffee, furniture, and fake Christmas trees cost more as well. Price moves on basic items like eggs or holiday décor change how buyers view inflation.

Holiday Season and Consumer Spending

Tariffs may hit the holiday season hard. LendingTree data shows that if tariffs had applied in the 2024 season, total spending would have increased by $40.6 billion. On average, each shopper would pay about $132 more. Around 70.5% of tariff costs hit buyers directly.

This extra charge may push many shoppers to use credit cards or get personal loans. More households face higher debt during a busy time of year.

Federal Reserve Outlook and Policy Implications

The Fed keeps a close watch on inflation. Some regional officials do not agree with recent moves to lower interest rates because inflation stays above the target. Tariffs add to this ongoing inflation, which makes the Fed’s task of balancing growth and stable prices more complex.

In summary, tariffs have played a small role in price changes so far. As holiday shoppers start buying, the impact grows. Rising prices on everyday items add up, shaping how consumers spend and view the economy as 2026 begins.

For both shoppers and businesses, watching how tariffs affect costs is important as the holiday season nears.

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Unraveling the Debt Web: How Soaring Government Deficits Could Ignite the Next Financial Crisis

How Soaring Government Debt Could Play a Starring Role in the Next Great Financial Crisis

By Barbara Shecter | Published October 27, 2025

Governments now face huge debts. They see deficits that risk global economic calm. Experts now warn that the U.S.—the world’s main engine—could spark or worsen the next major crisis because of its growing red ink.

The Growing Wall of Debt

Since the COVID-19 crisis, U.S. debt has shot up. It now reaches about US$37 trillion. Each year, a deficit of nearly US$1.8 trillion adds up. This figure is about 6% of GDP. Spending cuts have not slowed this rise. Deep political divides and a missing fiscal plan make debt cuts hard.

In April 2025, debt caught public attention. President Donald Trump put double-digit tariffs on over 80 countries on “Liberation Day.” At first, investors ran from stocks. They chose safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. Soon, however, this flight ended.

Rising Yields and Investor Anxiety

Bond prices then dropped. Yields climbed. Investors now ask for higher returns as risk grows. Ten-year Treasury yields hit 4.5%, up from 3.9%. Meanwhile, 30-year yields moved past 5%. This jump alarmed many economists.

Mark Manger, director of the Global Economic Policy Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School, has studied debt crises in Argentina and Nigeria. He sees this rise as strange in the market known for safety. “It is the part where observers are starting to freak out,” he said. His words show that investors now worry that rising yields harm the famed U.S. Treasury bond.

Higher yields also mean that paying back debt may hurt the economy. The U.S. Treasury market, a key part of global finance, may no longer seem the safest spot.

Potential Global Fallout

This warning goes far beyond the U.S. U.S. Treasuries and similar bonds sit at the heart of debt markets. Many banks, pension funds, and central banks hold them. A drop in their value might shake global finance.

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, an economics professor at Western University, studies sovereign debt. He explained that U.S. Treasuries work as collateral in repo deals. These deals help banks keep cash flowing overnight. If their value falls, liquidity in the system will suffer.

Foreign governments also hold these bonds. A drop in value would hurt their reserves and worsen economic shocks. In our connected system, one bad sign may start a global chain reaction.

The Looming Crisis?

A February 2025 study by the Brookings Institution said that a full U.S. default is not needed to cause a crisis. The fear of a strategic default or poor fiscal management alone might shake faith in U.S. debt. This loss of trust lowers asset values, weakens banks, and may spark a worldwide recession.

Reports from the Financial Post note that the debt crisis is not only in Washington. From Canada to the U.K. and Japan, high debts unsettle markets. Yet, the U.S. holds a special weight on the world scene. Its fiscal health can shift global economics.

What Lies Ahead?

With Canada’s Federal Budget on November 4th and similar events around the globe, all eyes are on governments. Political gridlock, high debt, and fears over safe assets put policymakers to the test.

For now, soaring U.S. government debt darkens the future of financial stability. The coming financial crisis may depend on how well the U.S.—the largest economy—manages its fiscal path and how investors see these moves.

For continued in-depth analysis on government debt and its global implications, visit FinancialPost.com and stay tuned for daily updates throughout the fiscal season.

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Tech Titans at a Crossroads: Amazon’s Cloud Surge vs. Apple’s iPhone Supply Struggles

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Update: Amazon Benefits from AWS Growth While Apple Faces iPhone Supply Headwinds

Published: October 30, 2025, 21:06 GMT
Author: James Hyerczyk

In this earnings season, two tech companies, Amazon and Apple, report results that show different growth paths. Amazon builds on its strong AWS cloud arm, while Apple struggles with supply limits that may slow sales, especially for the iPhone.

Amazon’s AWS Drives Profit and Revenue Growth

Amazon had solid Q3 earnings. Its earnings per share hit $1.95—far above the $1.57 that analysts expected—and revenue reached $180.2 billion. AWS stands out in these results; its revenue reached $33 billion, with a 20.2% gain from last year. This gain improved by 270 basis points over the previous quarter and shows AWS adds extra profit to Amazon.

While AWS makes up about 15% of total revenue, it supplies close to two-thirds of the operating profit. Amazon’s ad division did well, bringing in $17.7 billion.

Looking ahead, Amazon expects next-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion. This target is a bit lower than most estimates but fits with plans to grow AWS and invest in infrastructure. The company announced an $11 billion data center project aimed at AI work—a move planned for long-term gains.

A recent AWS outage did not shake investor trust. Many view Amazon as steady because of cloud growth and rising margins, making the stock a clear buy in the current market.

Apple’s Growth Hinges on iPhone Supply Unlocking

Apple posted a modest beat in its fiscal Q4 with EPS at $1.85 on revenue of $102.5 billion. Yet iPhone sales reached $49 billion, just below the $50.2 billion expected. CEO Tim Cook pointed to supply limits on the iPhone 17 and 16 as the main issue behind the lower sales.

Still, Apple guides for 10% to 12% revenue growth in the first Q of 2026. This would mean revenue of about $138 billion, above the roughly $132.3 billion that many expect. Hitting this target relies on easing the current supply limits before the December holidays.

Apple’s services segment kept its strong pace, posting a 15% rise to $28.75 billion. This part of the business kept gross margins above 70% and raised overall margins to 47.2%. Mac sales grew by 13%. Still, revenue in Greater China dropped 4% compared to last year, which may add pressure if iPhone sales fall further.

Apple’s near-term outlook remains risky. If it unlocks its iPhone supplies, the stock may do well. If supply problems continue, its high valuation based on services might not support the share price.

Analyst Takeaways: Amazon Is the Clearer Tactical Buy

The choice between these tech giants appears clear. Apple’s progress and stock growth now depend on fixing its supply chain so that the new iPhone lineup can hit the market. In contrast, Amazon shows steady growth through an expanding AWS unit and smart AI investments.

For many investors, waiting for clear signs that Apple has solved its supply issues seems wise. While that unfolds, Amazon’s persistent cloud strength and rising margins help make it a more understandable bet for tech growth.

About the Author:
James Hyerczyk is a U.S.-based technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of market experience. He studies chart patterns and price moves. He has written two books on technical analysis and is skilled in both futures and stocks.

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Disclaimer: The information provided is for education and research purposes and does not serve as investment advice. Investors should do their own research and talk to financial advisors before making any decisions.

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