Tag Archive for: profits

Sweet Relief Ahead: Why Chocolate Prices Are Rising Now but Set to Sweeten by 2026

Chocolate Prices Set to Climb Further in 2025, But a Smoother Outlook Expected in 2026

Chocolate fans face more price rises this year. The cocoa market shows a lag. Retailers see its mark on costs. Industry experts state that prices may hold steady by next Easter.

Sustained Price Pressure from Cocoa Market Challenges

Cocoa prices have jumped in recent years. In late 2024, they hit highs. Bad weather, pest problems, and a tight supply in West Africa pushed them up. West Africa produces about 75% of the world’s cocoa.

These shifts matched a rise in retail costs. Costs went up for buyers. A 2024 survey by UK consumer group Which? showed that chocolate had the highest rate of price rise—11%—in grocery stores. In the United States, favorites such as Hershey’s Kisses saw prices climb about 12% across one year.

Adalbert Lechner, head of Swiss maker Lindt & Sprüngli, told CNBC in April that he does not see cocoa prices falling back to old levels.

Current Market Trends and Consumer Impact

Cocoa futures dropped from $8,177 per metric ton in January to about $7,855 in August. Yet these numbers stay well above the figures from three years past, when cocoa was roughly $2,374 per metric ton.

Tracey Allen, an Agricultural Commodities Strategist at J.P. Morgan, explained on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that buyers still pay for the 2024 cocoa surge. “We’ve got a bit of a hangover happening here,” Allen remarked. The high costs built up in late 2024. Now, these costs pass to consumers. The passing on of costs keeps prices high when cocoa bean stocks drop.

Hope on the Horizon for 2026

There is some hope that prices will ease by next Easter. J.P. Morgan’s report points out several factors that might soften the market:

  • Better weather in West Africa
  • More cocoa coming from new plantings in Ecuador and Brazil
  • Reduced demand from chocolate makers

Allen mentioned that while prices may stay “structurally higher for longer,” some relief might come as cocoa stocks improve.

Additional Pressures on Chocolate Prices

Hamad Hussain, a Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that supply issues stick around beyond weather effects. He noted problems with long-term productivity, plant diseases, and less investment in cocoa-growing areas like Ivory Coast and Ghana, the top cocoa producers. These factors make supplies tight and prices high.

Beside the cocoa market, buyers also bear other cost increases:

  • In the UK, higher minimum wages and increased employee costs push food prices, including chocolate, upward.
  • In the US, tariffs push chocolate prices higher in the near term.

Hussain said, “The result is that buyers are likely to face high chocolate prices for some time.”

What This Means for Consumers

To sum up:

  • Chocolate prices will keep rising or stay high through 2025 because of last year’s cocoa price rises.
  • Better cocoa stocks and softer demand might bring some ease by Easter 2026.
  • Buyer’s costs also rise because of wage hikes and tariffs in the UK and US.
  • Cocoa prices may settle at levels that stay higher than in the past decade.

Chocolate fans might pay more this year. However, the view for next spring may bring a sweeter deal.

For more updates on market trends and forecasts, stay tuned to CNBC’s business coverage.

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Modi’s Game-Changing Tax Reforms: Fueling India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Challenges

Modi Announces Tax Cuts to Boost India’s Economy Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures

New Delhi, August 18, 2025 — Indian markets rose on Monday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced tax cuts. Modi sets his eyes on boosting local spending. India faces rough times from rising U.S. tariffs linked to buying Russian crude oil.

Market Response and Economic Context

The Nifty 50 index climbed 1% and the BSE Sensex gained 0.84%. The Indian rupee grew stronger while the U.S. dollar slipped 0.18%.
U.S. tariffs, now set at 50% on Indian imports and a fresh 25% on Russian crude oil, will start at the end of August. Indian businesses see a spark in the tax cuts even as trade challenges build.

Details of the Tax Reforms

On August 15, 2025, Prime Minister Modi spoke on Independence Day about a new path for self-reliance and finance. He outlined a full change of the GST, moving from many taxes to two basic levels: 5% and 18%.
Before, GST rates varied widely with slabs like 12% and 28%. This new plan aims to:

• Make rules simple
• Cut tax rates on many goods
• Lessen loads for small and mid-sized businesses
• Lower taxes on must-have items
• Use technology with pre-filled returns and quicker refunds

This revamp may spark more investment in manufacturing, logistics, housing, and consumer goods, as noted by the India Brand Equity Foundation.

Impact on Key Industries: Focus on Auto Sector

The auto sector, which slowed recently, can win with these tax cuts. In 2024, passenger vehicle sales grew just 4.2%, the slowest in four years, said the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
On Monday, auto stocks jumped. Maruti Suzuki India rose 8.75% and Hyundai Motor India climbed 8.15%.
James Thom, a senior investment director at Aberdeen’s Asian equities team, told CNBC’s “Inside India,” "As the auto sector had moved slowly, this strong climb is a welcome change."

Broader Economic Outlook Amid Geopolitical Challenges

The Reserve Bank of India predicts a 6.5% growth in the economy for the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Geopolitical issues stay in play as U.S. tariffs add strain and ties with Russia weigh in.
Thom stressed that local spending is the backbone of India’s growth. He said, "The tax overhaul cuts down the load and makes processes simple, which can push the economy past the U.S. tariffs."
A Deloitte report found that domestic spending makes up 61.4% of GDP for 2024-25, and spending in cities and shifts toward luxury goods grow quickly.

Positive Consumption Trends and Inflation Control

India Ratings & Research expects personal spending to grow by 6.9% each year until March 2026, while the overall GDP should rise 6.3%. This outlook rests on:

• Low growth in real wages
• A fall in household savings
• Easier access to personal loans
• A drop in retail price increases from 4.31% in January to 1.55% in July 2025—the lowest since 2017

The calm in price rises may help keep spending on a steady course.

With Modi’s tax cuts, India tries to boost local demand and face U.S. tariff pressures head-on. The plans focus on home growth, using smart tech changes, and aiding key industries. These steps help support steady progress for India in 2025 and the years ahead.

Full money-growing playbook here: https://www.youtube.com/@the_money_grower

David Zervos Champions Bold Rate Cuts as Potential Fed Chair: A Market-Driven Approach to Economic Growth

David Zervos, Potential Fed Chair Candidate, Advocates for Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts

Wall Street veteran and Jefferies’ chief market strategist, David Zervos, now earns attention as a leading name for the next Federal Reserve chair. On Thursday, he spoke in favor of quick cuts in interest rates. His view joins others who ask for Fed action without delay.

Calling for Immediate Rate Reductions

For the last three Fed meetings, Zervos has asked for a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate. In a CNBC interview, he repeated his call even as data shows inflation still holds on. Zervos noted the July Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a rise in pipeline prices.

He sees the PPI data not as a stop sign but as the last mark in a long fight against rising prices. A quick drop in rates, he says, will help keep the labor market strong and could add a million new jobs.

"I’m still absolutely there. I think there is a reasonable storyline, a very cogent storyline, that suggests monetary policy is restrictive," Zervos stated. "Generally speaking, I don’t see any reason why this [PPI] number changes that view."

Expanding the List of Potential Fed Chairs

At first, discussions on Jerome Powell’s successor—whose term ends next year—named only a few people. In recent days, the list has grown to close to a dozen. Among these are former Fed workers, Trump team advisers, and well-known Wall Street economists.

Zervos and BlackRock bond strategist Rick Rieder stand out. They bring real market skills rather than a pure economics view. Zervos thinks a Fed filled with market-smart staff would really work well.

"I think it would be an incredible benefit to have more market-competent people involved in the monetary policy decision," he commented.

Broader Support for Rate Cuts

Zervos is not the only one who wants a clear rate cut. Economist Marc Sumerlin, also eyed for the Fed chair job, backs a similar half-point drop. He says the Fed has been too slow in taming inflation.

Former President Donald Trump has pressed for even bigger cuts. He suggests dropping up to 3 percentage points (300 basis points) from the current rate of about 4.33%. Zervos admitted he might not cut that much, but he remains open to a drop of up to 200 basis points. He sees modern tech changes and shifts in supply as reasons that could shape future price drops.

Navigating Politics and Monetary Policy

Zervos says politics will not shake his view. He faces harsh words from people like Trump. He knows that the Fed chair job comes with political ties. Zervos stressed that facts should lead the discussion and that decisions must follow the rules set by Congress.

"You go into that job fully understanding that you’re involved in the political process… The goal is to have the debate be driven by facts and be driven by what is best for achieving the mandates that Congress sets out," Zervos said.

In the race to select the next Federal Reserve head, support for fast rate cuts shows worries about balancing price controls with growth and jobs. David Zervos’s solid market view and call for easier monetary policy mark him as an important choice in this leadership change.

Surprising Surge: July 2025 PPI Inflation Report Reveals 0.9% Increase, Casting Doubts on Fed Rate Cuts

Wholesale Prices Surge by 0.9% in July 2025, Signaling Persistent Inflation Concerns

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report came out on August 14, 2025. It shows wholesale prices rose sharply in July. Prices jumped 0.9% in one month. This is the largest increase since June 2022. The report points to strong inflation in the U.S. economy. It may affect the Federal Reserve policy soon.

Key Highlights from the July 2025 PPI Report

  • Overall PPI rise: 0.9% versus a Dow Jones forecast of 0.2%.
  • Core PPI (skip food and energy): Up 0.9% against a prediction of 0.3%.
  • Core PPI (skip food, energy, and trade services): Up 0.6%, the largest gain since March 2022.
  • Annual PPI growth: 3.3%, the strongest 12-month increase since February and above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Services inflation: Increased 1.1% in July, the highest from March 2022.
  • Trade services margins: Went up by 2% due to tariff measures.

Drivers Behind the Inflation Rise

The report shows key factors that pushed prices higher:

  • Machinery and equipment wholesaling: Prices climbed 3.8%. This jump made up about 30% of the rise in services.
  • Portfolio management fees: Rose by 5.4%.
  • Airline passenger services: Increased 1%.

These points show that cost pressures grow for both goods and services. Producers may pass higher input costs on to buyers.

Market and Economic Effects

After the report came out, stock market futures fell while short-term U.S. Treasury yields went up. This move shows that investors worry about steady inflation. The PPI, though watched less than the Consumer Price Index, still shows price pressure at the wholesale level. It also feeds the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the main tool the Fed uses to track inflation.

Clark Geranen, chief market strategist at CalBay Investments, said, "The strong PPI, along with soft CPI figures, shows that businesses are covering some tariff costs now. They might soon pass these costs to buyers." This may lead to higher prices for shoppers in coming months.

Market views on Federal Reserve policy have shifted slightly. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a lower chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The odds for several rate cuts this year have dropped more.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said, "The spike in the PPI today shows inflation moving through the economy, even if buyers have not felt it fully yet. This unexpected rise in wholesale prices is likely to lower hopes for a sure rate cut in September."

Broader Context and Data Challenges

The PPI report comes at a time when experts look closely at the accuracy of BLS data. This month, President Donald Trump fired the former BLS commissioner and named economist E.J. Antoni as the new head. Antoni has challenged the BLS methods and pushed to check the data with better measures. He even suggested pausing some labor market reports until the data improves.

Budget cuts and layoffs at the BLS have led to changes in how data is gathered. The July PPI report did not include about 350 cost groups. This change makes some ask whether the data is complete.

Summary

July 2025’s PPI report shows that inflation remains strong in the wholesale sector. Both goods and services prices have risen sharply. This may force the Federal Reserve to work hard to control inflation without causing a recession. Investors, policymakers, and buyers will watch future data for more signs of changes in prices.

For more news on inflation, market moves, and Fed policy, keep up with CNBC and top economic news sources.

Trump vs. Goldman: The Economic Fallout of Rising Tariff Inflation

Economists Warn of Rising Tariff-Driven Inflation as Trump Criticizes Goldman Sachs

Tariffs and inflation now drive many talks. Economists on Wall Street agree that tariffs will raise consumer prices soon. Recent consumer price data look upbeat. Tariffs, however, will push prices up. Goldman Sachs said prices affected by tariffs will increase. This view upset many, including former President Donald Trump. Many experts share this warning.

Goldman Sachs Faces Backlash Amid Broad Consensus

Goldman Sachs sparked conflict when its economists showed that tariffs will hit consumers harder in the second half of 2025. Trump shared his anger on Truth Social. He told CEO David Solomon to fire the economist behind the study or to leave the job himself.

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle spoke on CNBC. He said, "If we fired every economist who shares this view, Wall Street would soon have many empty seats." His words keep market views close and simple.

Wall Street Economists See Inflation Creeping Upward

Many economists see a steady rise in prices. Companies use up cheaper stocks and then pass on the high cost of tariffs. Tariff rates climbed from 3% to almost 18% this year. Soon, consumers will see higher bills.

• Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase says tariffs may take 1% off the economy and add 1% to 1.5% to inflation.
• Brian Rose, a senior economist at UBS, sees core inflation stop falling as tariffs push store prices higher; he notes that slowing shelter costs and a consumer check might limit the jump.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics watches core inflation climb 1 percentage point, reaching 3.5% by year-end.
• PNC chief economist Gus Faucher sees core PCE inflation rising above the Fed’s target soon.

Most experts see no wild inflation. They expect a slow rise of 0.3% to 0.5% each month. This rise may place core inflation in the low- to mid-3% range.

Impact on Federal Reserve Policy and Consumer Spending

The rise in inflation will affect the Fed’s plans. With price pressures growing, many economists think:

• The Fed may wait to cut rates, starting later as the job market drops and if inflation seems brief.
• Higher prices may slow down how much people spend. This change could also slow economic growth for the rest of the year.
• JPMorgan projects that tariffs might lower GDP growth by nearly 1%, while the Blue Chip Economic Indicators report shows about 0.85% growth in the second half of 2025. —

Near-Term Concerns and Inflation Stickiness

Some risks may push inflation higher. On August 29, the tariff break for goods under $800 ends. This rule change may raise retail prices.

Other worries are that some prices move slowly. Rent, insurance, and home items change over longer periods. The Cleveland Fed measured sticky-price CPI inflation at a 3.8% yearly rise. This level is the highest since May 2024. It shows that price increases persist in some areas, even when food and energy do not change as much.

BNP Paribas notes that inflation may spread. Service prices also show upward moves. The key worry for the Fed is if high prices will stay for a long time.

Summary of Expert Views on Tariff Inflation Effects

• Tariffs may drive inflation up by 1 to 1.5% and reduce GDP by about 1%.
• Core inflation may rise slowly, reaching about 3.5% by year-end.
• The Fed may hold off on rate cuts until it sees that price rises are short-lived.
• Ending tariff breaks might push store prices higher.
• Slow shifts in some prices could lead to lasting cost increases.

Conclusion

Experts share one clear message. Tariffs seem set to push inflation higher soon. This shift will challenge both buyers and policy makers. Trump’s anger at Goldman Sachs shows the tight politics around this trend. Yet, the firm’s forecast fits many Wall Street views. In the coming months, buyers should get ready for modest price hikes, especially for items hit by tariffs. Investors and policy makers now watch as these changes shape economic growth and Fed moves.

For continual updates on inflation, tariffs, and market reactions, stay tuned to CNBC.

Goldman Sachs Defends Tariff Impact Prediction Amid Trump’s Criticism: Consumers to Feel the Pinch

Goldman Sachs Stands Firm on Forecast: Consumers to Bear Most Tariff Costs Despite President Trump’s Criticism

Goldman Sachs now backs its view. The bank expects that US buyers will cover most tariff costs. This idea comes amid sharp talk from President Trump. He questioned the bank’s study and its team of economists.

Tariff Impact on Consumers: Goldman’s Projection

In a CNBC interview on Squawk on the Street, economist David Mericle stuck to the bank’s view. He said the data shows tariffs will come hard by fall. Mericle explained that US buyers will pay about two-thirds of the extra cost.

“If the April tariffs act like the ones from February, our plan shows buyers face about two-thirds of the cost by fall,” said Mericle.

The President’s Response

On his social media site, Truth Social, President Trump spoke out on Tuesday. He told CEO David Solomon to “get a new economist” or quit. Trump called the bank’s view off track.

Still, Mericle ignored these claims. He stood by the bank’s models. A report by economist Elsie Peng, which sparked the president’s anger, noted that exporters and businesses have so far picked up most tariff costs. This balance will soon shift more to US buyers.

Economic Insights and Inflation Projections

The bank’s numbers show that tariff-driven price hikes could push the PCE price index to about 3.2% by the end of 2025. This index is the inflation tool favored by the Fed. At one time, the core PCE rate was 2.8% in June, while the Fed still aims for 2%.

Mericle added, “A US company shielded from global rivals can raise its prices and see gains.” His estimates sit well with those from other top economists.

Future Policy and Market Implications

Mericle said that even with rising prices, the president may see some relief in the form of Fed rate cuts. He described the rise as a one-time price jump. This change will not force the Fed to shift from its focus on jobs.

Recent data points—small gains in the consumer price index and a soft July nonfarm payroll report—make markets think that rate cuts may come at later Fed meetings in 2025. ### Summary of Key Points:

  • Goldman Sachs sees US buyers covering about two-thirds of tariff costs by fall 2025.
  • President Trump openly rejected Goldman’s forecast and called for a change in leadership.
  • Tariffs may lift the key Fed inflation measure to near 3.2% by year-end.
  • Even if prices grow, Goldman expects some rate cuts because of job market needs.
  • The debate shows a clear divide between economic views and political opinions.

For updates on market moves, inflation, and Fed plans, stay tuned to CNBC.

Fed Nominees Dispute Tariffs as Inflation Cause, Align with Trump’s Economic Strategy

Fed Board Contenders Miran and Bullard Say Trump’s Tariffs Do Not Drive Inflation

In recent talks, two top economists and leading Fed candidates, Stephen Miran and James Bullard, argued that Trump’s tariffs do not add to inflation. They link their view with Trump’s own claim that tariffs do not push prices higher. This claim has stirred debate among economists and decision makers.

Tariffs and Inflation: Diverging Perspectives

Miran, who serves on the White House Council of Economic Advisers and is picked to finish a short term as a Fed governor, told CNBC that there is “no proof that any tariff raised prices.” He noted that forecasts of harm from tariffs did not come true when the years passed.

Bullard, a former head of the St. Louis Federal Reserve and a likely candidate to take over as Fed Chair, voiced a similar idea. He said that data shows “Trump’s aggressive tariffs have not driven inflation.” Bullard explained that price jumps lately seem to be one-time changes rather than a slow and steady rise.

Fed Policy and Interest Rate Outlook

Each economist skipped a direct vote on future rate moves. Bullard hinted that the FOMC might cut rates again as soon as September 2025. He said the Fed could lower its key rate by one full point within one year. This plan would bring rates near a “neutral” level.

Bullard mentioned that the Fed stopped cutting rates because of uncertain tariff effects. Now, with half a year of new data, he sees the taxes as having small and short-term effects on price levels instead of causing a lasting rise.

Inflation Data and Market Reactions

The discussion followed a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report noted that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% for July 2025. Although this is above the Fed’s goal of 2%, it is lower than what Wall Street expected. This news has sparked new debates on the tariff’s role in price movements.

Federal Reserve Independence Amid Political Pressure

Both Miran and Bullard stressed the need for the Fed to work without outside influence. Their remarks came while tensions grew between Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Trump has often taken aim at the Fed and pressed for strong rate cuts. After the recent CPI report, Trump posted on his social media and demanded a 3 percentage point rate cut. He blamed slow policy moves for the current issues.

Bullard replied in a measured tone, noting, “He has his view. Many have their view.” His words remind us that the Fed needs to consider many points of view.

Context: Fed Leadership Changes on the Horizon

Miran is set to serve out the rest of former Governor Adriana Kugler’s term after her exit. Meanwhile, Bullard is considered among several names to fill the gap when Jerome Powell’s chairmanship ends in May 2026. —

Key Takeaways:

  • Miran and Bullard dismiss the idea that tariffs cause ongoing inflation.
  • July 2025 data shows a CPI rise of 2.7%, which cools some earlier fears.
  • Bullard sees a chance for Fed rate cuts to start by September, to ease borrowing.
  • Both stress that the Fed must work free from political pressure.
  • A shift in Fed leadership may change the future path of U.S. monetary policy.

As the Fed moves through these changes, the views of candidates like Miran and Bullard will be closely watched for clues to the future direction of U.S. money policy.

July 2025 Inflation Report: CPI Rises 2.7% as Tariff Effects Remain Modest, Fed Rate Cuts Likely Ahead

Consumer Price Index Inflation Report for July 2025 Shows Moderate Rise Amid Tariff Concerns

Published August 12, 2025 – Updated 3 Minutes Ago

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July 2025 Consumer Price Index report. The report shows prices rose by 0.2% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis and by 2.7% over the past 12 months. The report gives a lower annual figure than market predictions of a 2.8% increase. Tariff worries came up, but the numbers stayed near expectations.

Core Inflation Trends

When experts remove food and energy from the count, the core CPI rose by 0.3% in July. This increase matches predicted numbers. Year-on-year, the core index reached 3.1%. That annual rise is the highest since February 2025, and the monthly jump is the largest since January. Fed officials study the core numbers to check ongoing price pressure and future trends.

The report shows that shelter costs moved up by 0.2%. Food prices held steady. Energy prices fell by 1.1%. In transportation, the price for new vehicles did not move, while used vehicles rose by 0.5%. Prices for transportation services and medical care both grew by 0.8%.

Market Reaction and Federal Reserve Outlook

After the report came out, stock market futures climbed and Treasury yields dropped. Traders put more money on a Fed rate cut as soon as September. This shift suggests that the market views the price rise as acceptable. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that the odds for a rate cut in September have grown. It has also raised the chance for another cut in October. The odds now stand at about 67%, compared to 55% the day before.

Impact of Tariffs on Inflation Data

Tariffs on many imported goods have raised concerns among economists about their impact on price stability. The report shows that tariff effects can be seen but are not very strong. For instance:
• Prices for household furnishings went up by 0.7% after a 1.0% increase in June.
• Apparel prices increased by only 0.1%.
• Core commodity prices moved up by 0.2%.
• Canned fruits and vegetables, a group sensitive to tariffs, did not show any increase.

A former White House economist, Jared Bernstein, who worked under President Joe Biden, noted in a CNBC interview that the tariff figures show in the data but do not push prices to extreme levels now.

Challenges Affecting CPI Data Reliability

The BLS now faces problems with budget cuts and fewer staff. These cuts have stopped data collection in several cities. The bureau now uses estimates for many price groups. Critics say these changes lower the trust in the CPI readings. The debate has grown after President Trump criticized the bureau and made changes to its leadership. Trump fired the last commissioner following a weak July job report and nominated E.J. Antoni, a known critic of the BLS. This move has made the discussion about the data more heated.

Broader Economic Context and Future Outlook

Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said, "Inflation is on the rise, but it did not grow as much as some feared. In the short term, markets may welcome these data because they keep a September rate cut possible while the labor market shows weakness." She warned that price pressures from tariffs might still grow over time.

A key issue is whether tariffs cause a one-time change in price levels or start a steady rise over time. Most experts expect a one-time shift. Still, the spread of tariffs keeps concerns alive.

The Fed pays attention to the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, as well as the CPI and the upcoming producer price index reports, to guide policy moves.

Additional Inflation and Wage Data

In similar figures, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings grew by just 0.1% in July, which means a 1.2% gain over the year. This small wage growth might affect how much consumers spend and slow down overall growth.

Summary of Key Figures:

  • CPI Monthly Increase (July): +0.2%
  • CPI Annual Increase: +2.7% (forecast was 2.8%)
  • Core CPI Monthly Increase: +0.3%
  • Core CPI Annual Increase: +3.1%
  • Shelter Costs Monthly Increase: +0.2%
  • Energy Prices Monthly Change: -1.1%
  • Used Vehicles Monthly Increase: +0.5%
  • Average Hourly Earnings Monthly Change: +0.1%
  • Average Hourly Earnings Annual Change: +1.2%

The July CPI report comes at a key point as the Federal Reserve weighs a possible interest rate cut while inflation risks and changes in the labor market persist. Market players and policymakers will watch the next data releases to see how tariffs and other factors shape the inflation picture.

Trump-Putin Talks: A Strategic Win for Moscow Amid Economic Struggles and Market Impacts

Trump-Putin Talks Mark Significant Victory for Moscow, Impacting Economy and Markets

Global interest grows. Putin and Trump meet in Alaska this Friday. This meeting wins for Moscow, its weak economy, and world markets. It seeks to end the war in Ukraine—a conflict that hurts both nation ties and money flows.

A Symbolic Win for Putin and Russia

The meeting shows a clear sign of power. Richard Portes, who leads the economics studies at London Business School, says the mark is strong. This time, since 2007, Putin meets on U.S. soil with no limits or other sides present.
Portes said, "This win is big for Putin… No limits and no Ukraine or any European side. This is a win."

Ukraine’s Exclusion Sparks Concern

Ukraine is not in this talk. Leaders in Kyiv, like President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wait on an invite. They worry that their voice will be lost. Kyiv says no choice about its fate comes without it. In Europe, leaders ask hard to see Ukraine join. The U.S. seems to think about inviting Zelenskyy too.

Economic Context: Russia’s War Economy Under Strain

Russia wins some ground on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet, its money matters are weak. Sanctions and high inflation—9.4% in June 2025—hurt its funds. The war makes a large budget gap. Oil and gas cash falls with low prices and the limits. Money work stays poor, even as field wins rise.
Portes said, "Putin begins with strong field actions but weak money power."

Potential Implications for Sanctions and Territorial Concessions

Russia, with a strong field, seeks fast relief from limits and some land in Ukraine. Kremlin voices also see new work and sales chances from a warmer U.S.-Russia tie, in Alaska and the Arctic. Yet, the U.S. may not back more limits. Washington talks of "secondary limits" against Russia’s trading friends like India. Trump has not started extra limits even as calls for more come in.

Market Reactions: A Mixed Picture

World markets react with hope to the talk news. Stocks in Europe and the U.S. rise on Friday. Yet, defense stocks drop as the idea of peace may bring less money for arms.

  • Defense Shares Falling: German firms Rheinmetall and Hensoldt lose nearly 4% and 1.5%. Similar drops hit Italy’s Leonardo and France’s Thales.
  • Gold Prices Decline: Gold, a safe spot, slips by about 1% as political tensions ease.

Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, sees a win on both sides for Europe’s defense names. He explains:
• If the talks break, the war goes on. New arms then will be needed.
• If a deal holds, Russia’s strong field still pushes Europe to buy arms.

Granville tells traders, "Buy on that drop," expecting long gains for defense groups no matter what happens with the talks.

Looking Ahead

The Trump-Putin meet in Alaska sits at a key turn. The talks serve as a sign for Russia. Yet, eyes stay fixed on real steps—especially for Ukraine and for what U.S. will do with Moscow’s limits. As events shift, global markets and politics stay alert and hopeful for a deal that keeps safety and money matters in careful balance.

For ongoing updates on the Trump-Putin talks and their global impact, stay tuned to CNBC and other trusted news sources.

The U.S.-China Trade Truce: A Crucial Deadline Approaches Amid Rising Tensions and Strategic Negotiations

U.S.-China Tariff Truce Extension Hangs in the Balance as Deadline Nears

The deadline nears. The United States and China sit at a table. They share a tariff truce. The trade deal stands on a thin line. The agreement, born in May, will end on Tuesday. The two leaders now face the risk of trade tensions rising.

Background and Current Status

In May 2025, the U.S. and China made a 90-day deal. They did so to slow down high trade duties. In April, some duties reached 145%. The truce cut tariffs and stopped new fines. This pause helped both sides talk toward a longer plan.

  • Tariff Situation:
    • The U.S. puts a 20% tariff on many Chinese shipments. This move follows fentanyl trafficking claims.
    • Many Chinese goods get an extra 10% tariff.
    • Selected items bear a 25% rate from the past U.S. policy.
    • American goods for China face tariffs above 32.6%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

After a meeting in Stockholm last month, Chinese voices sounded optimistic. Still, the U.S. now waits for a decision. President Donald Trump must choose on the extension. His pause makes new tariff hikes a real risk.

Trade and Economic Impact

Trade data shows a strain. China’s exports to the U.S. dropped for the fourth month. In July, they fell by 21.7% compared to last year. U.S. exports to China also fell by 10.3% during the first seven months of 2025. Experts see a future deal. They believe China might soon buy more American goods. They list these main sectors:

  • Energy
  • Agriculture (mainly soybeans)
  • Semiconductor equipment (under agreed conditions)

Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics thinks the next deal may look like a second version of the phase-one deal from 2020. The earlier promise broke down because of the pandemic. Trump has asked for a boost in Chinese soybean orders. In recent months, the orders have grown fast.

Upcoming Summit Prospects and Political Dynamics

Experts expect a meeting soon in Beijing. President Trump and President Xi Jinping may meet in the coming months. Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group says the meeting might steady ties. Yet this does not signal friendlier feelings. Both banks seem to move toward economic separation as world trade shifts.

Other Points of Contention

Other issues make talks hard:

  • Semiconductor Export Controls:
    U.S. export rules for chips stir debate. Nvidia plans to sell its H20 chip in China again. Many see this as a small change, not a full easing of rules. U.S. voices split. Some worry about China using the chips for military work. Others note that too strict rules might push China to make its own chips.

  • Rare-Earth Metals Exports:
    Rare-earth elements help make tech products. China leads this market. It recently let more rare-earths and magnets pass to the U.S. A higher flow of these goods may affect future talks.

  • Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil Purchases:
    The U.S. adds extra tariffs on nations buying Russian oil. India and maybe China face these charges. China buys a large part of Russia’s oil. This fact may make future talks tougher.

Outlook

An official move on the tariff truce is still unknown. The choice that Trump makes will shape U.S.-China trade in coming months.

Tensions brew on trade balances, export rules, and global plans. Global markets wait with bated breath. A high-level meeting between Trump and Xi might calm the tension. Yet both sides must work hard to guide this complex process.

This article will be updated as new information becomes available.