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Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates for Maintaining ‘Barely Restrictive’ Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack Advocates Keeping Interest Rates at ‘Barely Restrictive’ Levels

November 20, 2025 — Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack spoke on Thursday. She signaled that the cycle of rate cuts might soon end. In her CNBC Squawk on the Street interview, she pointed to a need for a small extra pull on policy. Her words tie the idea of a tighter stance to meeting the Fed’s inflation target.

Current Monetary Policy: “Barely Restrictive, If at All”

Hammack labels current monetary policy as “barely restrictive, if at all.” She makes clear that the bank must keep policy tight enough. Her words join the idea of slow inflation growth with the aim of reaching 2%.

“Right now, to me, monetary policy is barely restrictive, if at all, and I think we need to make sure that we’re maintaining that somewhat restrictive stance,” Hammack told CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

Interest Rate Levels and Economic Impact

Hammack ties the federal funds rate of 3.75% to 4% to what is seen as a neutral position. This rate and its closeness join to a view that extra cuts do not help now.
Her remarks come as market views change. The FOMC meets next on December 9-10. The market, which had tied a third rate cut to the cycle, now shows a 60% chance that rates will stay the same. This view comes from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Divergent Views Within the Fed

Minutes from the October Fed meeting show splits among members. Those minutes join views that balance inflation risks with soft spots in the labor market.
Hammack, who usually shows a strong view on inflation, favors higher rates. Her stance keeps a tight grip on price rises. Still, she shows care for workers in her region.

Insights from the Cleveland Region: Inflation’s Impact on Workers

Hammack shares chats with local workers and business owners. She ties low hiring and low firing rates to a soft labor market. Yet, she links real pain to inflation cutting the buying power of wages.

“What we hear from the workers is that they’re holding on to their jobs for dear life, if they have them,” Hammack said. “But what I also heard … was that the money that they have coming in is just not stretching as far as it used to. What used to cost $30 now costs $50, and so that inflationary pressure is still very salient for them.”

Mixed Signals from Employment Data

On the day Hammack spoke, the U.S. Labor Department put out the September nonfarm payrolls report. Her words join dual messages: payroll growth went strong, yet the jobless rate rose a bit. This mix ties together the ideas of recovery and current troubles in the labor market.

As a voting FOMC member in 2025, Beth Hammack’s words carry weight in making policy. Her push to keep rates near current levels joins caution on inflation with a care for steady growth.

Investors and policymakers will watch the December meeting. They wait to see how the Fed will work with these shared pressures. For now, Hammack’s words tie the need for steady watchfulness with the fight against rising inflation without loosening policy too fast.

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September 2025 Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Surprises with 119,000 New Jobs as Unemployment Edges Up to 4.4%

U.S. Jobs Report for September 2025 Reveals 119,000 New Positions; Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4%

After a long gap caused by a record 44-day government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report on November 20, 2025. This report gives a clear view of the U.S. labor market as the year comes to an end.

Key Highlights:

  • Nonfarm payrolls grew by 119,000 in September. This rise beat the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000 as numbers connect closely.
  • Earlier data now shows fewer jobs. August changed from a 4,000 job gain to a loss.
  • The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
  • When including discouraged workers and those in part-time jobs for economic reasons, the wider unemployment figure dropped to 8%.
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% each month and by 3.8% over the year. This rise went slightly above forecasts.

Context and Analysis

This report is the first update on employment since early September numbers appeared on September 5, 2025. The 44-day shutdown stopped key agencies like the BLS and the Bureau of Economic Analysis from collecting data. The gap made economic predictions and policy steps hard to decide.

Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, said, “September’s jobs report shows the labor market was strong before the shutdown. It beat payroll estimates, yet the picture stays cloudy with August jobs turning to a loss and unemployment increasing.” His words remind us that the data shows conditions from two months back and may not mark today’s scene.

Sector Performance

The hiring scene in September shows clear patterns:

  • Health care added 43,000 jobs.
  • Bars and restaurants contributed 37,000 jobs.
  • Social assistance saw 14,000 more jobs.

Some sectors did lose jobs:

  • Transportation and warehousing fell by 25,000 jobs.
  • The federal government employment dropped by 3,000 that month. In the year, federal jobs declined by 97,000.
  • Professional and business services lost 20,000 jobs, a drop that included 16,000 fewer temporary help services.

Household Survey Insights

The household survey, which connects the numbers of employed and active workers, shows a better view:

  • The count of employed persons grew by 251,000.
  • The labor force grew by 470,000, reaching 171.2 million workers.
  • The share of the population in the labor force moved up to 62.4%, its highest number since May 2025.
  • Workers in full-time jobs increased by 673,000. At the same time, part-time work fell by 573,000.

Market and Policy Implications

After the report came out, stock market futures moved up while Treasury yields fell. Investors connect these moves to a balanced economy, with steady job growth and a small rise in unemployment.

Market experts watch the mixed signals with care. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said, “Some parts of the report show strong payroll growth, which points to a firm economy, while other parts, like higher unemployment and slower wage gains, keep one hopeful for a possible Fed cut in December.”

The Federal Reserve meets on December 9-10. After a couple of rate cuts in September and October, officials now face a tough choice. With September’s labor data in hand, they see one final big jobs report before they set their next move.

Upcoming Data Releases

The BLS plans to release both October and November employment data on December 9, 2025. Note that October’s unemployment rate will not be there due to data issues from the shutdown.

Additional Government Data

A Labor Department update notes that for the week ending November 15, initial jobless claims came in at 220,000. This number is 8,000 below the previous week and sits under the forecast of 227,000 claims. These numbers form a steady view of the labor market in November.

In summary, the September 2025 jobs report, though delayed, shows a labor market that grows at a steady pace. The report sets out clear shifts in different job sectors and shows the challenges for those who make policy, all amid some data gaps and economic unknowns. More data in December will give a clearer picture of U.S. employment and the wider economy.

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Anticipating the September Jobs Report: What to Expect as Markets Await Key Insights

September Jobs Report to Be Released Thursday: What to Expect

The government shutdown stopped the release of labor market data for a long stretch. Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will put out the September nonfarm payrolls report this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report ends a two-month break in key job numbers that left investors, economists, and policymakers with few official figures.

What the September Report May Reveal

The report will likely show a gain of about 50,000 jobs in both public and private work. This number is higher than the 22,000 jobs announced in August. The data shows some market growth but still hints at overall weakness.

Other estimates based on Dow Jones consensus include:

  • An unemployment rate of 4.3%,
  • Average hourly earnings that go up by 0.3% for the month,
  • A 3.7% boost in average earnings over the year—all close to August’s trends.

Context and Limits in the Data

Since the data belongs to September, it does not give a full current view for policymaking. Fed Chair Jerome Powell compared the policy setting to “driving in the fog.” He warned that interest rate decisions should not be made too quickly when all the numbers are not in yet.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, said, "Both the September report and the changes to July and August data might show a slightly better outlook than many think, but not by much. The job numbers are steady, just like the wider economy."

Impact of the Government Shutdown on Data Releases

The shutdown forced changes in the BLS schedule. The changes are:

  • No separate October jobs report; October data will come with November’s report, now delayed until December 16,
  • No unemployment rate for October because household data was not fully collected,
  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September and October will appear together on December 9. This delay means a clear look at the job situation may not come until early February 2026, according to Brusuelas.

Alternative Data and the Fed’s View

When official information was halted, economists turned to private data like:

  • ADP’s tracking of private payrolls,
  • Layoff figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas,
  • Other job indicators.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke recently. He said there is enough available data to guide decisions. He even mentioned that a rate cut might be in store come December.

Predictions and Revisions

Goldman Sachs analysts are more upbeat. They project an 80,000 job rise in September. However, they expect that October will see a drop of 50,000 jobs as a federal program linked to layoffs from the Department of Government Efficiency comes to an end.

The report will also update July and August payrolls data—numbers that may show stronger job gains than first recorded.

In summary, Thursday’s September jobs report brings long-awaited official numbers after many weeks without them. Because the data is from a past month and has its limits, the report may only give a partial view of the job market. Investors, economists, and policymakers will need to wait patiently as they work through a time of ongoing uncertainty.

Stay tuned to CNBC for live coverage and detailed analysis when the September jobs report is out.

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Fed Minutes Reveal Divided Opinions on Future Rate Cuts Amid Economic Concerns

Fed Minutes Reveal Division Over October Rate Cut and Doubts About December Move

Washington, D.C., November 19, 2025 — In October, the Federal Open Market Committee met with clear differences. The officials debated if they should cut interest rates. They faced the challenge of a cooling labor market and high price levels. The minutes show that leaders did not agree on how to balance these needs.

October Rate Cut Approved Amid Mixed Views

The committee cut the rate by 0.25 points. They lowered it to a band of 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. The close vote, rare for the Fed, hints at two main views. One set of officials feels that current rules still slows growth. Another set sees strong economic activity that makes the rules too loose. The leaders stuck close to one another on their word links as they studied new data.

Debate Over December Rate Cut

The documents note deep splits on a possible rate cut in December. A few participants thought another cut might be needed if numbers fit their views. Many raised doubts and warned against cutting rates further in 2025. In Fed language, the word “many” means a larger group than “several.” This choice of word shows that most members lean against a December cut. Since not all voting members join the discussion, the exact strength of the view remains unclear.

Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that a December move is not a done deal. This comment shifts from market views that expected a near-certain cut. The CME Group FedWatch tool set the chance of a December cut at about 33% by Wednesday. For January, the probability rose to roughly 66%.

Divergent Perspectives Within the Committee

The split among officials falls into clear lines:

  • Doves – Governors Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman back cuts. They tie their views to keeping the labor market growing as hiring cools.
  • Hawks – Regional Fed Presidents Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City), Susan Collins (Boston), and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) worry that easing rules too soon may keep prices high.
  • Moderates – Chair Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams push for a slow, careful look at future numbers before any move.

One official—likely Miran—saw a larger half-point cut as the path forward, while President Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.

Data Challenges Amid Government Shutdown

The committee did not have a full view of the economy. A 44-day government shutdown held up key reports on jobs and prices. Powell compared the condition to “driving in the fog” with missing signs. Governor Waller countered that enough data still sits with the Fed to shape its plan.

Balance Sheet Policy Adjustments

The minutes also show that the Fed will pause reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities from December. This pause comes after the process cut more than $2.5 trillion from the balance sheet, which now sits near $6.6 trillion. With the pause, tightening on this side of the policy becomes milder.

Summary:

  • The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in October amid different views.
  • Doubt now surrounds a move in December.
  • The committee splits among inflation-focused hawks, job-focused doves, and cautious moderates.
  • A government shutdown delayed clear economic data.
  • The pace of reducing holdings will slow starting in December.

As the economic path stays unclear, investors and policymakers watch new data and Fed signs to see how policy will shift in 2026. —

For more detailed analysis and market updates, stay tuned to CNBC’s continuing coverage.

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Unpacking the U.S.-Saudi Investments and Defense Deals: A $1 Trillion Promise and F-35 Controversies

From $1 Trillion Spending to F-35s: U.S.-Saudi Pledges Are Not Done Deals Yet

Washington, D.C. — U.S. President Donald Trump met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Washington. Trump greeted MBS with warmth. Their meeting mixed defense plans with economic talks. The leaders spoke of a $1 trillion investment and the sale of American F-35 fighter jets. Experts warn these promises do not yet become firm deals.

Landmark Agreements and Investment Pledges

At the meeting, both leaders signed a pact on defense. They met to discuss security and civil nuclear energy. The White House stressed one point: Saudi Arabia promises to raise a $600 billion U.S. investment to $1 trillion. The administration called the change a sign of strong trust and fast progress. No dates or details were given on when the money will flow. Some experts noted that Saudi Arabia produced about $1.07 trillion of goods and services in 2023. This fact makes many ask if the nation can meet such a high figure soon.

Paul Donovan from GBS Global Wealth Management said,
"These pledges come up often on the world stage, even without strict checks. The promise is as large as almost a full year of Saudi output, which makes it hard to trust it soon."

The Controversial F-35 Fighter Jet Sale

The meeting also brought up a possible deal for up to 48 American F-35 stealth jets. A White House note said that President Trump gave a go-ahead for a big defense sale that includes future F-35 deliveries. The plan would keep American defense production busy. Still, the exact jet numbers, delivery dates, and sale terms are not clear.

This planned sale has caused debate. Israel is now the only Middle Eastern country to use the F-35. The long history between Saudi Arabia and Israel adds to the worry. The Israeli Defense Forces fear that Saudi jets could weaken Israel’s air power and change the balance of power in the region.

During one press talk, Trump said, "We’ll be selling F-35s," while praising both nations as strong partners. He added, “I know you might want to see smaller planes, but I believe both should get the best we have.”

Diplomatic and Legislative Hurdles Ahead

Some experts point out that handing over F-35s to Saudi Arabia before Riyadh fixes its ties with Israel may seem early. Bradley Bowman from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said,
"Washington must fix worries about Riyadh and China. It must follow rules about Israel’s military edge and wait for closer ties between Riyadh and Israel before any jet sale."

Paul Musgrave of Georgetown University Qatar said that naming such deals is one thing. Getting the jets to work in Saudi Arabia is another matter. He warned that problems with technology rules and needed votes in Congress—where lawmakers usually side with Israel—will slow things down.

A Visit Shadowed by Controversy

The trip was the first U.S. visit for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since the 2018 death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence found signs that the crown prince may have approved the act, though Riyadh denies it. This issue made the meeting more complex. Still, both Trump and MBS presented the talks as a step forward for U.S.-Saudi ties.

In summary, headlines now shine on a $1 trillion promise and a plan for F-35 fighters. Yet legal, political, and practical issues mean these deals are still in progress. Many now watch closely to see how these promises work out in the next months and years.

For ongoing updates and expert views on U.S.-Saudi ties and defense plans, stay tuned to CNBC.

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China’s Soybean Stockpiles Soar: U.S. Farmers Face Frustration and Failed Trade Promises

China Faces Surplus of Soybeans While U.S. Farmers Grapple with Frustration Over Trade Stalemate

November 17, 2025 — China’s soybean stock has grown to its highest level in years. American farmers feel the strain. Beijing buys fewer U.S. soybeans. This slow buying happens even though trade deals exist. The move casts doubt on recent claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump. It shows the tough road in U.S.-China agriculture trade.

Slow Progress on U.S. Soybean Sales to China

After the meeting of President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, China bought almost no U.S. soybeans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture records only two deals with a total of 332,000 metric tons from October 2 to November 12. This result is far less than the 12 million metric tons that were expected by the end of 2025.
Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Beijing’s promises to American presidents do not last long. He thinks China may slow its soybean buys. This delay helps China hold on to soybean trade as a tool while it talks with the Trump administration amid other political strains.

High Bean Stockpiles Undermine Demand

China has built large soybean reserves in recent months. Processors, pig farmers, feed makers, and state stockpiles all join in. Port stocks hit 10.3 million tons on November 7, up by 3.6 million tons compared to last year. Crushers also report the highest stock levels since 2017.
Even with steady imports—9.48 million tons in October, a 17.2% jump from the year before—China shows little near-term need for U.S. soybeans. In the first ten months of 2025, China brought in 95.7 million tons, up by 6.4% from 2024. Soybeans from Brazil make up almost 80% of that total.

Brazil’s Growing Soybean Dominance

Brazil is set to harvest a record soybean crop next year. This crop adds more strain for U.S. farmers. Chinese buyers seem to choose Brazilian soybeans because they cost less than the U.S. ones even after China cut tariffs on American soybeans.
This month, China raised its soybean buys from Brazil and pre-booked large shipments for December and early 2026. ### Little Sign of Definitive Purchase Programs

Experts do not see a strong buying plan from state grain importers such as COFCO and Sinograin that usually handle bulk purchases. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, noted that there is little evidence that China is close to meeting the set purchase targets.
China has made some public moves like restoring import licenses for several U.S. soybean exporters. It also appears open to agricultural talk. Still, its actual buying pace remains slow and inconsistent.

Impact on U.S. Farmers and Political Implications

The drop in Chinese soybean purchases hurts American farmers. China has long been the top market for U.S. soybeans. In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China were worth about $12.6 billion. President Trump called China’s reduced buying an act of economic hostility.
Sabrin Chowdbury, who heads commodities at BMI Research, said China’s soybean imports may rise and fall with political changes. Soybeans stay a key part of U.S.-China trade talks.

Broader Trade Context and Future Risks

The trade issues over soybeans show that China uses agricultural imports to tilt U.S. policies. This tactic appeared during the Trump era when China cut back on soybean buys in response to U.S. tariffs.
China now relies more on South American soybeans. This shift brings risks like higher prices, longer shipping times, and changes in weather affecting crops. For U.S. farmers who hoped that the recent trade deal would soon bring back China’s demand, the growing bean stockpiles at Chinese ports warn that the challenge may last longer.

For more news on the U.S.-China soybean trade and global agriculture, follow our live updates and expert analysis.

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Unlocking the Future: When Will Key Economic Reports Return Post-Government Shutdown?

U.S. Government Resumes Operations: When Will Key Economic Reports Be Released?

When the U.S. government reopens after a recent shutdown, Wall Street and policy makers watch the schedule of new economic reports. The reports on jobs, inflation, and other main measures change how the Federal Reserve and investors read the market. Uncertainties and delays still affect the plan for these numbers.

Impact of the Shutdown on Economic Data

During the shutdown, key agencies in the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce did not collect or share data as they normally do. This gap forced markets and the Fed to work with less clear numbers. Experts turned to other sources to learn the state of the economy.

Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra said:

"Without on-time official numbers, both the markets and the Fed had to use other data to check the outlook. Now that the shutdown is over, all eyes will fall on the new reports."

Current Status of Data Releases

By Friday morning, the Labor and Commerce teams had not yet set new dates for their reports. They said they will update the schedule soon. Many expect the September jobs report to appear next week, though this plan is not set in stone.

The shutdown’s effects remain. For example:

  • October nonfarm payrolls report: It will probably come in early December and may not include the unemployment rate. This report needs household surveys that are hard to do after the fact.

  • October Consumer Price Index report: It might not be ready because the BLS depends on in-person surveys, which were not possible during the shutdown.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that some data might be missing. The BLS asked for patience and said, "it may take time to check the situation and set new dates." The BEA also said it is working with other teams to update the schedule and will share new dates when they can.

Political Pressure Mounts for Data Transparency

Some Democratic lawmakers are growing impatient. They ask for a clear plan and direct action from the administration. Senators Elizabeth Warren (MA), Bernie Sanders (VT), Maria Cantwell (WA), and Gary Peters (MI) wrote a letter that said a shutdown should not stop data collection or release.

Key points in their letter include:

  • The government might be holding back the data.
  • Delaying or canceling these reports harms businesses, policy makers, consumers, workers, Congress, and the Fed.
  • They ask that as many reports as possible come before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting and that normal releases resume as soon as possible.

The White House has not answered the letter publicly.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect and Watch For

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said that job and price data must be checked for accuracy before it is shared. She hopes that a new schedule for the reports will come soon. She stressed that the White House wants accurate numbers for November.

Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst is hopeful that the Fed will get the reports for September, October, and November by the December policy meeting. In September, the Fed had hinted at a rate cut in December. However, recent views from officials now cast doubt on the need to lower rates further.

Beyond jobs and prices, the BLS and the Labor Department also track data on:

  • Import and export prices
  • Job listings
  • Producer prices
  • Productivity
  • Weekly jobless claims

The Commerce Department gathers data on:

  • Personal income and spending (including the Fed’s preferred price index)
  • GDP
  • Retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods shipments as recorded by the Census Bureau

This data helps check overall economic health and guides monetary policy.

Conclusion

The government shutdown broke not only the plan but also the full flow of upcoming economic reports, leaving investors and policy makers with open questions. As officials promise to update the schedule soon, worries about missing or delayed data add pressure before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Lawmakers and market watchers will keep a close eye on the efforts to restore a steady flow of economic numbers.

Image description: People wait in line at a job fair in Sacramento, California, on November 13, 2025. (Credit: David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images)

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How Trump Tariffs Are Driving U.S. Beef Prices to Record Highs: A Perfect Storm of Supply Chain Challenges

Trump Tariffs Contributing to Rising U.S. Beef Prices Amid Supply Chain Challenges

November 13, 2025 — Beef prices in the United States climb to new highs. Tariffs put in place during President Trump’s term push these prices up. Tariffs hit key markets and farming costs. This change adds to supply limits and pushes costs for both makers and buyers.

Tariffs Impact Beef Imports and Supply Chain

The trade rules put in place during the trade war add high tariffs on beef from top suppliers like Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay. Brazil stands as the world’s second-biggest producer and the top exporter. With a 76.4% total tariff rate on Brazilian beef, exports to the U.S. fall greatly in July and August.
Brazil now sends most of its beef to China. U.S. imports from Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay also shrink because of these steep tariffs.
Dan Anthony, president of economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide, said, “When you add a 50% tariff on a major supplier like Brazil, importers may still buy and pass cost along, or they may stop buying. In both cases, you see the price rise, especially when new tariffs hit other key suppliers.”

Domestic Beef Supply Under Pressure

Beef prices rise when the U.S. cattle herd is near its smallest size in 75 years. Drought cuts down available grasslands and reduces cattle feed. Feed costs also rise after tariffs boost the price of imported fertilizers needed for corn and soybeans. Tariffs on steel and aluminum push up the cost of farm equipment like tractors and grain bins.
James Clement III, a sixth-generation Texas rancher, calls this one of the toughest cattle cycles in history. He points out that replacement heifers—the key to regrowing the herd—are at a 20-year low. He says rebuilding the herd needs time, grass, and rain. Cattle production takes longer and costs more when compared with other farming practices.

Political and Market Reactions

President Trump has blamed meat packers and cattlemen for the rising beef prices. At the same time, his team keeps raising tariffs that push prices up further. A deal to allow Argentine beef into the country made ranchers worry. Groups such as the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association say that Argentine beef could hurt U.S. rural producers without cutting prices much.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture sees the same strain from the shrinking cattle herd and starts new plans to bring more people into cattle farming. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that uncooked beef prices have jumped by 12% to 18% over the past year as of September 2025.
Economist Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners notes, “It is easy to place tariffs on foreign goods to protect local makers, but the consumer ends up bearing the cost. Then, people turn to cheaper meats, and local makers do not gain much.”

Additional Challenges: The Threat of New World Screwworm

US cattle ranchers also face a threat from the New World Screwworm. This parasitic fly was wiped out in the U.S. in 1966 but now appears again in Mexican cattle. The USDA led its largest trade trip to Mexico to work on ways to stop the fly. The pest could harm animal health and affect beef exports. It adds another hard link in the long chain that already strains beef supply.

Outlook for Ranchers and Consumers

Some ranchers, like James Clement, stick to their plans and invest in their work. They still see cattle as a long-term choice. The beef industry must balance changes such as drought, high input costs, tariffs, political doubt, and the risk of pests.
In sum, tariffs meant to shield local makers restrict foreign beef and push up costs. The overall impact makes beef prices stay high while demand holds firm.

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Data sourced in part from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Panjiva trade analysis.

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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Announces Departure: A Look Back at His Controversial Tenure and Impact Ahead of Transition

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic to Step Down When Term Ends in February 2026

Published: November 12, 2025 | Updated: An Hour Ago

Raphael Bostic, who leads the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, will leave his role when his term ends on February 28, 2026. He has worked in this job since June 2017. He became the first Black and openly gay regional Fed president.

A Key Change Ahead for the Federal Reserve

Bostic’s exit happens as the Fed faces a busy time in national money policy. His term stops when all regional presidents’ five-year terms end, usually in years that end in 1 or 6. This time comes as the Fed’s main rate-setting group, the FOMC, meets for major decisions.

The renewal or replacement of leaders like Bostic now will face more careful review because the current board shows unusual political activity. This year brings extra issues in a process that is normally simple.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also see a change as his term ends in May 2026, even though he stays a governor until 2028. This signals a time of deep change in the Fed’s top leadership.

Bostic’s Years in Office: Successes and Trials

Over nearly eight years at Atlanta, Bostic worked for a growing and fair economy. He said he wanted to make an economy work better for all. He looked ahead to new ways to use his ideas when he left the Fed.

Bostic was known as a calm voice on money matters. In 2025, he spoke with care about not cutting rates too soon when inflation stayed high and jobs fell a bit. Note that he is not a FOMC voter this year; the Atlanta Fed regains its vote in 2027. Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised him, saying, “His view helped the FOMC grasp the changes in our economy. His steady tone showed the best in public service. It was based on careful study, strong experience, and clear goals.”

Until a new leader is named, Cheryl Venable, the first vice president and chief operating officer, will work as the acting president.

Issues That Marked Bostic’s Term

Bostic’s time at the Fed had its share of hard moments. In October 2022, the Fed looked into trading done for him during blackout times before policy meetings. An internal review found 154 trades made during these times. The review did not find proof of insider trading or a conflict in his work.

Some also questioned if he followed rules for reporting finances and the size of Treasury holdings in his investments. Bostic said the trades came from third parties who acted on his behalf and he wished the mistakes had not happened.

This review was one part of a larger check on personal investments by Fed workers. It led to tighter checks and new rules on what securities could be held. The result was a system that works with more clear rules and strong ethics.

Summary of Key Points:

  • Raphael Bostic will leave his role as Atlanta Fed President in February 2026 when his five-year term ends.
  • He is the first Black and openly gay regional Fed president, having served since 2017.
  • His departure comes at a busy time for the Fed, including a change in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s role.
  • During his term, Bostic worked for a fair economy and a careful approach to money policy.
  • His time saw issues with trading activities and financial report rules.
  • Cheryl Venable will act as Atlanta Fed President until a new leader is named.

As the Fed moves through this change in leadership, market watchers and policy experts will keep a close eye on money policy and plans for the economy in the coming years.

For continuous updates on the Federal Reserve and economic policy, stay tuned to our coverage.

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Economic Data Drought: What to Expect as the Government Reopens and Backlogs Clear

Economic Data Releases Paused by Government Shutdown: When to Expect Key Reports

The U.S. government shutdown delays key economic data. It holds back payroll numbers, job figures, and inflation measures. Congress works to end the shutdown. All eyes now turn to when data will resume and what the figures may show about the economy.

Government Shutdown Impact on Economic Data

Federal agencies compile and release economic statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce now work in a limited way. Their usual reports on payrolls, price levels, retail sales, income, and other economic markers for September and October now delay.

Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker noted a backlog in a recent note:
“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October. Though the shutdown nears its end, the agencies need time to address the backlog of releases.”

Timeline for Data Release Resumption

The government is set to reopen soon. The Senate passed a stop-gap spending bill and now awaits the President’s signature. When the government reopens, agencies will work to publish the delayed data.

  • Early next week: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will share an updated schedule for delayed reports.
  • October Jobs Report: This report may appear soon, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week.
  • November reports: Payroll and inflation data might face another week’s delay.

Key Upcoming Economic Reports Delayed by Shutdown

The delayed reports include:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls – a measure of job trends.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) – tests of price changes.
  • Personal Spending and Income – views of consumer activity.
  • Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders – signs of product demand.
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a check of quarterly growth.
  • Employment Cost Index and JOLTS – views of labor market details.

What the Data Might Show

Analysts believe the released figures will show a slowing job market and high inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the October payroll report to mark a loss of around 50,000 jobs. Other figures also point to a cooling market.

Inflation stays above the 2% target, yet officials see slow moderation. At a news meeting on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said:
“Labor market conditions are cooling slowly, and inflation stays quite high.”

He added that private-sector data from the shutdown does not change the overall view since September.

Broader Economic Growth Outlook

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows third-quarter growth near 4%. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter growth forecast to 1.3%. This view puts the economy at about a 2% annual gain in 2025. ### Final Thoughts

Short-term delays in data raise problems for policymakers, investors, and analysts. Still, the main trends in jobs, inflation, and growth hold steady. When agencies resume work, clearer details about the economy will come forth to help in making sound decisions.

As of November 11, 2025, readers can expect a gradual return of key economic data in the days following the government’s reopening, with reports expected to confirm the trends seen during the data freeze.

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