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Trump’s Bold Demand for Tariffs on India and China: A Controversial Move that Strains US-EU Relations

Trump’s Push for 100% EU Tariffs on India and China Sparks Controversy

September 11, 2025 — Former U.S. President Donald Trump pressed for the EU to set a 100% tariff on goods from India and China. He made his case to hit them for buying oil from Russia. His idea aims to punish these nations for aiding Russia’s energy plans. The plan divides opinion in Europe and beyond.

The Proposal and Its Context

Trump presented his plan during a meeting in Washington. Senior U.S. and EU officials talked face-to-face. Reporters from the Financial Times first noted the meeting, and CNBC later confirmed it through reliable sources. In his speech, Trump said the U.S. would copy any tariff the EU sets. The White House has not yet commented on the idea.

A European Commission spokesperson did not share details of the meeting. She explained that talks with global partners, including India and China, continue as they work on limits for Moscow. She mentioned the EU’s 19th sanction round against Russia. This round uses new methods to stop nations from dodging the rules. She said the U.S. remains a very important friend in stopping funds for Russia’s war.

European Caution and Trade Complications

European officials now watch Trump’s call with care. They worry because:

  • The EU keeps its trade and political bonds with India and China close.
  • Trade with Russia stays sensitive.
  • The U.S. is finalizing a deal with New Delhi, making timing a sharp issue.

At the moment, the U.S. puts a 50% tariff on Indian goods. It also adds a 25% fee when India buys oil from Russia. Indian leaders call these charges "wrong, unfair, and heavy." They complain about mixed signals in U.S. and EU deals with Russia.

Ian Bremmer from Eurasia Group questions Trump’s plan. He sees a problem since the U.S. also wants better trade ties with India and China. He thinks the tariff push might pass the burden on to Europe while avoiding harm to U.S. ties with China. Bremmer warns that such a move could hurt unity across the Atlantic.

Why Europe Is Likely to Reject the Proposal

Most experts believe the EU will say “no” to Trump’s plan because:

  • Europe sees tariffs as blunt tools that can hurt more than help.
  • The EU still depends on many key imports from Russia, especially energy.
  • EU trade with Russia remains high. Data shows €67.5 billion ($78.1 billion) in trade in 2024, with energy imports making up most of this.

Bill Blain, a market analyst at Wind Shift Capital, advises Europe to decline the plan. In his newsletter Morning Porridge, he warns that Europe should opt for discussions instead of entering a trade fight.

The Russia-Energy Connection

Europe buys much of its energy from Russia. This fact makes it hard to target nations like India and China. Russian pipeline gas once made up over 40% of EU imports in 2021 but dropped to about 11.6% in 2024. Still, Russia provides roughly 19% of the EU’s gas and LNG.

The U.S. now pushes Europe to buy more LNG from America. Trump pointed to a deal where the EU promised to buy LNG, oil, and nuclear energy worth $750 billion over three years. U.S. official Doug Burgum recently said that exporting LNG to Europe can cut Russian gas use and reduce money for its war.

Conclusion

Trump’s push for a 100% tariff on India and China may pull the world into a heavy trade dispute. His idea seeks to punish nations that help Russia but risks hurting important trade ties. Leaders in Europe and around the world see the plan as too risky. They choose talks over strong trade actions.

The events show the hard choices in global trade as leaders deal with sanctions, trade rules, and new world ties during the Ukraine conflict.

For continuous updates on this and other global economic affairs, stay tuned to CNBC.

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France’s Economic Stability at Stake: Navigating Political Upheaval and Credit Rating Risks

France’s Economy Faces Key Risk Amid Political Turbulence and Credit Rating Uncertainty

September 11, 2025 — France’s economy goes through a tough period. Political change and credit rating risks make this time hard. The prime minister was recently removed, and protests spread across the nation. Economists and investors now worry about credit rating updates that could push up borrowing costs.

Political Instability and Economic Pressures

Last summer, parliamentary elections did not produce a clear winner. No party or alliance gained a majority, and two governments fell amid disputes about the national budget. This chaos raises fears for France’s budget strength. In 2024, public debt reached 5.8% of its gross domestic product (GDP)—the highest level in the eurozone.

New Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu must now decide his next steps. He may follow the plan made by his predecessor François Bayrou to cut spending by €44 billion (about $51.5 billion) and raise taxes. The plan calls for removing two public holidays, freezing pensions and welfare benefits, and cutting funds to local governments. These moves have already led to large protests.

Upcoming Credit Rating Reviews: A Key Indicator

Credit rating agencies now check the risk of investing in a nation’s debt. Their reports affect borrowing costs. In the next few months, three agencies will share their assessments:

  • Fitch: Scheduled for September 12, 2025
  • Moody’s: October 24, 2025
  • Standard & Poor’s (S&P): November 28, 2025

These reviews will decide if France keeps its “double A” credit rating. This rating marks low risk and makes French government bonds popular with many investors, especially in Asia.

Potential Impact on Bond Markets and the Economy

Mohit Kumar, Chief Financial Economist for Europe at Jefferies, says a lower rating could hurt bond holders. He adds that losing the double A rating might force investors to sell bonds, which will raise yields—the price France pays to borrow money.

Higher yields lead to more expensive debt payments. This may force the government to tighten the budget even more, which many fear could slow the economy further.

Even with all this talk, bond yields on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds have stayed steady for now. This steadiness shows some trust among investors or that they have already priced in these risks.

Deutsche Bank economists describe the upcoming rating changes as a “close call.” They note that a downgrade by one agency is unlikely to cause a sudden rush to sell bonds. Still, all signs point to a weak outlook because of ongoing fiscal and political challenges.

Economists’ Perspectives on Downgrade Risks and Market Stability

  • Berenberg Bank’s Chief Economist, Holger Schmieding, sees a downgrade as a possibility but not a surprise. He points out that a negative cycle—where rising yields push the deficit even higher—is unlikely because France’s current account is stable.

  • He warns that if snap parliamentary elections give power to groups like the far-right National Rally or the French Socialists, the new policies might hurt the economy. In that case, bond buyers could demand more risk or drop out completely.

  • George Lagarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars, trusts the European Central Bank to act as a stabilizing force. Since the ECB is led by a former French finance minister, it can step in to support demand and lower borrowing costs if the market falls under stress. Still, he notes that the bank’s help cannot fix France’s deep fiscal issues. The government will face hard choices when it comes to budget cuts and pension reform.

Looking Ahead: Balancing Stability and Fiscal Responsibility

France’s future depends on managing political change while keeping strict control over its budget. The nation’s ability to maintain its high credit rating will shape its borrowing costs and guide its growth path.

As the credit rating reviews move forward, investors, policymakers, and citizens will watch closely, seeking a steady balance between a stable economy and needed budget changes in an unpredictable political climate.

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Key Insights from the Latest PPI Inflation Report: What It Means for Markets and the Fed

5 Key Takeaways from the Latest U.S. Producer Price Inflation Report

The new U.S. Producer Price Index report brings surprising numbers. It shows changes that spark talks on inflation and Fed policy. Here is a detailed look at the report and its impact on the economy and markets.

Unexpected Decline in Producer Prices

In August, the PPI—measuring wholesale price shifts—fell by 0.1%. This drop marks the third time this year that prices have fallen instead of risen. Many Wall Street experts expected a 0.3% rise. The core PPI, which leaves out food and energy changes, also dropped by 0.1%. In contrast, a core measure that leaves out trade services in its count went up by 0.3%.

Market and Political Reactions

Low inflation numbers now push markets to see a rate cut soon. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social,
"No Inflation!!! ‘Too Late’ must lower the RATE, BIG, right now. Powell is a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue!!!"

The market showed only slight moves.

  • Stocks: Saw small gains after the report.
  • Treasury yields: Fell by a little.

Investors now watch closely as the next major report comes.

Inflation Fundamentals Show Good Signs

Policy experts study not only the main inflation number but also the smaller details. Here, the report shows that the service sector—making up about 80% of U.S. GDP—went into a 0.2% drop. The prices of goods, which face more global and tariff effects, increased by only 0.1%. These signs point to a cooling of inflation pressures.

Eyes on Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index

Investors and policy makers now turn to the Consumer Price Index report. It is set for release on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The CPI gives a broad look at consumer prices. Along with the PPI, it helps shape the Fed’s view on inflation. Experts expect the CPI to rise around 0.3% in August. This will be the final big inflation data point before the Fed makes a policy choice, and its timing may shape market ideas and policy plans.

Expert Perspectives on the Report

Leading economists now share what they see in the report:

  • Chris Larkin, Managing Director at E-Trade:
    “Tomorrow’s CPI will carry more weight, but today’s PPI print essentially rolled out the red carpet for a Fed rate cut next week. After last week’s jobs report, the market was already expecting the Fed to begin an easing cycle, so it remains to be seen how much of a near-term impact this will have on sentiment.”

  • David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation:
    “The worst-case scenario on inflation isn’t playing out. The doves will be happy to see the year-over-year number back below 3 percent. Combined with the weak jobs data recently, this keeps us on track for rate cuts. However, the speed and intensity might depend more on the big consumer index tomorrow morning.”

  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup Economist:
    “Inflationary pressure in PPI appears to be muted overall. We see nothing in this report (or its implications for core PCE) that would dissuade Fed officials from cutting 25 basis points in September and proceeding to cut 25 basis points at each upcoming policy meeting.”

What’s Next?

The report shows a drop in wholesale inflation pressure. With the CPI report close at hand, all eyes stay on the Federal Reserve. Many now expect a cycle of rate cuts after a long period of tightening. The upcoming CPI and future Fed moves will help set the course for the U.S. economy in the months to come.

Stay tuned to CNBC for live updates and expert analysis as more inflation data unfolds and market reactions evolve.

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Inflation Surge Expected: Key Reports Could Shape Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions

Key Inflation Reports This Week Expected to Show Prices Still on the Rise

This week, inflation data comes out. The data aims to show that prices in the U.S. keep climbing. The rise in prices may not stop the Federal Reserve from easing its policy in the next meeting.

Upcoming Inflation Data: What to Expect

The Bureau of Labor Statistics sets two reports:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) for August (Wednesday)
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August (Thursday)

Economists from Dow Jones expect that both reports will show prices growing by about 0.3% each month. This rise shows up in the overall index and the core CPI, which leaves out drug and energy prices.

If these numbers stick:

  • The annual headline CPI will hit 2.9%, the highest rate since January 2025.
  • This rate goes up by 0.2 percentage points from July.
  • The core CPI stays near 3.1%.

Implications for Federal Reserve Policy

Prices rise. This shift makes it seem that the Fed might pause on cutting its benchmark interest rate next week. Two points stand out:

  1. Core Inflation Stability
    Core inflation stays steady by leaving out food and energy. This pattern hints that main price pressures stay low.

  2. Effects of Tariff-Related Goods
    The expected price rise comes mostly from goods like autos, furniture, and clothing. These items are a small share of the vast $30 trillion U.S. economy. Many Fed officials see these price hikes as one-time moves that will not keep prices high.

Policymakers now look at these numbers with care. They may choose to focus on signals in the jobs market that might call for lower interest rates to support growth.

Economic Context: Weakening Jobs Market and Tariff Effects

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, said, “In aggregate, it’s still hotter than the Fed would like to see… The U.S. is predominately a service sector economy,” and stressed that one must view the market as a whole instead of focusing only on top-line numbers.

At the same time, Goldman Sachs economists note that the trend in underlying inflation might fall further. Easing costs in the housing rental market and slower rises in labor costs point in this direction. Still, this trend has downside effects. Slower home values and flat wages might cut down what people can spend, which can lead to a push for lower rates.

Knightley commented, “When you get that combination [of price concerns, incomes, and wealth], those three things coming together are pretty toxic for the growth story.” This mix makes the Fed more careful about the future.

Producer Prices as an Inflation Indicator

The Producer Price Index appears before the CPI. This report gives an early look at cost pressures. After a 0.9% jump in July, analysts expect a softer rise in August, hinting that cost pressures on companies might ease.

Markets and policymakers now watch closely. They check if inflation pressures stick and what move the Federal Reserve will choose as it deals with tariffs, shifts in the job market, and changing buying conditions.

Stay tuned to CNBC for live updates and in-depth analysis as the inflation reports are released this week.

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Massive Job Growth Revision Raises Eyebrows: 911,000 Jobs Lost in Latest Labor Report

U.S. Job Growth Revised Significantly Downward Through March 2025, Highlighting Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. labor market shows a big drop in job growth. The data now cuts nonfarm payroll jobs by 911,000 for the 12 months before March 2025. Wall Street had seen a drop between 600,000 and one million jobs, so the new number is worse than experts expected.

What the Revision Reveals

The report uses complete sets of data. It pulls records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and tax returns. This method brings job numbers close together for a better view of the market. The drop of 911,000 jobs is more than 50% larger than the change seen last year. Last year’s revision was the biggest drop since 2009. The change shows a softening in the market that had not been seen before. Although the numbers go back 18 months, recent counts raise fresh concerns. The summer months of June, July, and August 2025 had a monthly payroll gain of only 29,000 jobs. That small increase does not help keep unemployment steady.

Sector-Wise Impact

The new job counts fall across many sectors. The most affected areas show these drops:

  • Leisure and Hospitality: down by 176,000 jobs
  • Professional and Business Services: down by 158,000 jobs
  • Retail Trade: down by 126,200 jobs

Most private sectors lose jobs in the new report. In contrast, transportation with warehousing and utilities see a slight rise. Government jobs fall as well, by about 31,000 compared with earlier numbers.

Political and Economic Context

Critics now question how the BLS gathers its data. The smaller job counts have raised hints at trouble. The issue caught the White House’s eye after previous low counts and unsatisfactory job reports. In July 2025, a report that cut the job number further led President Donald Trump to choose a new BLS leader. He picked economist E.J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation over then-commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Yet, data in August still shows weakness. For example, the June job count now shows a drop of 13,000 jobs. This is the first decrease since December 2020. While monthly numbers come from quick surveys, these annual changes use large amounts of data. They serve as a clear sign of the economy’s state.

Looking Forward

The current figures are preliminary. More changes will come when the final report is released in February 2026. For example, the 2024 report first reduced job counts by 818,000 before settling at a 598,000 drop. Out of about 171 million workers, a loss of 911,000 jobs makes up nearly 0.6% of the total. Even a small percentage can have deep political and economic impact. Weak signs in the job market back President Trump’s calls for Federal Reserve rate cuts to boost the economy in these uncertain times.

Stay updated with CNBC for more detailed analysis on the labor market and economic trends.
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Trump’s Rolex Invitation at U.S. Open Raises Eyebrows Amid Swiss Tariff Controversy

Trump Attends U.S. Open with Rolex CEO Amid Newly Imposed Swiss Tariffs

In a surprising shift at the 2025 U.S. Open, President Donald Trump stood beside Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour. A 39% tariff hit Swiss imports just weeks earlier. The tariff now burdens Switzerland, home to the famed watchmaker.

Presence at the U.S. Open Final

On Sunday, September 7, 2025, Trump watched the men’s singles final. Italy’s Jannik Sinner and Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz competed at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. Trump sat in a midcourt box run by Rolex. Rolex sponsors the tournament.

Trump brought family and top White House staff. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt attended with him. NBC News noted the details. The Associated Press reported that Rolex invited Trump—a move that raised many questions after the tariff was set.

Tariff on Swiss Watch Imports

Weeks before the match, the Trump team set a 39% tariff on Swiss goods. This tax now affects Swiss watchmakers like Rolex. The rate is higher than taxes on imports from other European nations. The tariff came after trade talks with the U.S., the European Union, and the United Kingdom.

Market analyst Luca Solca from Bernstein wrote in a client note. He mentioned that a last-minute tariff deal did not occur. He predicted that Swiss watchmakers might push up prices to cover the new tax. Solca also noted that early shipments may keep prices steady for a few months.

Corporate Interaction and Strategic Alliances

Trump joined the exclusive suite run by Rolex. His meeting fits a pattern of connecting with major companies. After his return to office, he met with leaders from top tech firms at the White House. This step shows his plan to build ties with business.

This event marked Trump’s first U.S. Open visit since 2015. It signals his renewed interest in high-profile sports and business events.

About Rolex and U.S. Open Tickets

Rolex began in 1905 and is based in Geneva, Switzerland. It is known worldwide for its luxury watches. U.S. Open final tickets come at a high price. General admission starts at about $800, while seats near the action cost much more.

Summary:

  • President Trump joined the 2025 U.S. Open final with the Rolex CEO weeks after a 39% Swiss import tariff was set.
  • The tax may push up prices for Swiss watchmakers like Rolex.
  • Trump was with family and senior White House officials in a Rolex-run midcourt box.
  • This is Trump’s first U.S. Open visit since 2015 and fits his plan to meet with major companies after returning to office.

This link between politics and established brands like Rolex shows a careful balance of trade rules and corporate talks.

Stay tuned for more updates on trade, luxury items, and the links between politics and business.

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Skyrocketing Job Market Anxieties: New York Fed Survey Reveals Record Low Worker Confidence in Job-Moving Opportunities

Worker Confidence in Finding a New Job Hits Record Low, New York Fed Survey Shows

The New York Federal Reserve released the Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday. The survey shows worker confidence is low. Here, workers believe they stand only a 44.9% probability to find a new job if they lose the one they have. This drop of 5.8 percentage points from July marks the survey’s lowest level. The survey has run since June 2013. ### Lowest Job-Finding Probability Since 2013

Workers once quit with high hopes during the "Great Resignation" in 2021-22. At that time, nearly 4.5 million quits occurred each month. In July 2025, only 3.2 million quits happened. The data, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows a decline of more than 5% from the same period in 2024. ### Labor Market Dynamics and Slowed Mobility

Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, said,
"Consumers feel low about job-finding chances. It is hard to get work now. Employers hire little, and workers stay in their current jobs for security."

During the pandemic, many workers moved between jobs. Jobs were available at a rate of two openings per worker in some sectors. Now, the market slows down:

  • Hiring has dropped a lot.
  • More workers wait than there are job slots.
  • Employers check costs before adding new staff.

As a consequence, few workers leave on their own. The Fed survey finds:

  • The chance of leaving a job in the next year is near 18.9%.
  • Expectations that the unemployment rate climbs in 12 months are at 39.1%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than in July and above the 12-month average.

Recent Labor Market Weakness

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared new numbers this week. In August, only 22,000 new jobs appeared. This total falls short of the expected 75,000. June’s job growth was revised to a loss of 13,000 jobs. This marks the first drop since December 2020. The official unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, while a broader measure, which counts discouraged and underemployed workers, rose to 8.1%. These levels last appeared in October 2021. ### Market Expectations and Fed Policy Outlook

Many analysts and market watchers see signs of a soft labor market. Some predict the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the meeting on September 17. This change would be the first since December 2024. The move aims to spur economic activity and help the labor market.

With the labor market facing these issues, worker sentiment and confidence stay key for a clear view of the broader economic path.

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Europe at a Crossroads: Tackling Growing Economic Challenges and Striving for Competitiveness

Europe Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Struggles to Implement Solutions

By Sophie Kiderlin & Holly Ellyatt, CNBC
Published: September 8, 2025

Europe now deals with problems that grow over time. Political leaders note the issues, and business leaders see them pile up. They try to fix the issues, yet their work falls short. Experts at the Ambrosetti Forum spoke up. They gathered in one place, and each voice pointed to a fragile state. Old problems tie together with politics, the economy, and society.

Accumulating Challenges Threaten Europe’s Stability

Arancha González Laya, who once led Spanish foreign affairs and now guides Sciences Po University, compared Europe’s state to a build-up similar to bad cholesterol. Each small issue does not shock on its own. Still, when they join, they sweep in harm over Europe’s long life. "One day you will discover that you have a heart attack," she said.

Markus Kerber, a former German State Secretary and advisor, compared Europe to a rabbit caught in headlights. He said the continent sits still as the world changes fast around it. He pointed out that the old global order has fallen apart and left Europe with few signs of what to do next. He noted the rise of a group led by the United States, China, India, the European Union, and Russia. In this new mix, Europe does not hold the right tools to act quickly.

Economic Competitiveness: A Lingering Concern

One main worry is Europe’s work in the world economy. Analysts and leaders agree that the continent has lagged in the reforms needed to boost its world trade role, especially when compared with parts of the U.S. and Asia.

Reports from 2024 by former Italian Prime Ministers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta list a set of issues that harm Europe’s money matters:

  • A heavy load of rules that stops new ideas
  • A divided single market that cuts work short
  • Energy prices that push up industrial costs
  • Slow growth and work that widen the gap with the U.S.

The Draghi report said, “Europe’s households have paid the price in foregone living standards.” Each family feels the drop, as real income per person in the U.S. has grown almost twice as much as in the EU since 2000. Data from the International Monetary Fund shows that the EU’s slice of global GDP (by buying power) fell from 27.5% in 1980 to just 14.1% in 2025. This drop shows how Europe has lost ground.

Efforts and Calls for Reform

Even as these issues grow, European leaders stick to plans for change. Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, explained that projects like the “Competitiveness Compass” come from the work of Draghi and Letta. This plan targets tasks such as:

  • Narrowing the gap in new ideas
  • Using the EU single market to its full size
  • Cutting red tape and simplifying rules

“These aims are set on the EU agenda and are now at work,” Dombrovskis told CNBC.

Yet, many call for bolder moves. Carlos Cuerpo, Spain’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, stressed that delays in reforms must end. He urged a shift from waiting to doing, with clear steps based on the competitiveness plan from recent years. “Competitiveness is a medium-term task that must show up in day-to-day choices and quick actions,” Cuerpo said. “This is the hardest, yet most needed part of our work.”

Europe’s Path Forward

Experts and leaders at the Ambrosetti Forum agree: Europe sees its own troubles—from political strains to slow economic pace. Fixing these problems calls for fast and ongoing reform. A strong will on all sides and a clear view of a nimble, modern Europe are at the core of these plans.

As the world changes, how Europe adapts and competes will shape its role on the global stage.

For continuous updates on Europe’s economic and political developments, subscribe to CNBC Pro and join our Investing Club.

Related Topics:

  • Europe’s Economic Outlook
  • Global Political Order Shifts
  • EU Single Market Reform
  • International Trade Competitiveness

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August 2025 Jobs Report: A Stalling Labor Market Signals Economic Turbulence Ahead

August 2025 Jobs Report: Payroll Growth Slows Sharply, Indicating Hiring Weakness

Published September 5, 2025 – Updated Minutes Ago

The U.S. labor market shows slow growth. Payrolls grew by 22,000. This number falls far short of the 75,000 forecast by economists from Dow Jones. The slow gain points to fewer new hires. The economy and current monetary policy add to the worries.

Key Highlights from the Report

  • Payrolls rose by 22,000. In July, payrolls had risen by 79,000, and June ended with a net loss of 13,000 jobs.
  • The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, as more people joined the labor force.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for August. The yearly growth in wages reached 3.7%, a bit less than the expected 3.8%.
  • Sector details:
    • Health care gained 31,000 jobs.
    • Social assistance added 16,000 jobs.
    • Wholesale trade and manufacturing each lost 12,000 jobs.
    • The federal government saw a drop of 15,000 jobs, which slowed overall progress.

Labor Market and Economic Context

The report shows that the job market is slowing down from earlier months. Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, says the market now lacks the speed seen before. He warns that the slow pace of hiring may make it hard to achieve a smooth economic slowdown.

The household survey shows:

  • An increase of 288,000 employed persons.
  • A rise of 148,000 unemployed persons.
  • The labor force grew by 436,000, which brings the participation rate to 62.3%.
  • When we include discouraged workers and those working only part-time by choice, the rate now is 8.1%. This is the highest level since October 2021. ### Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook

The jobs numbers did not worry the market too much. At the opening bell, stocks moved up while Treasury yields fell. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows that traders expect a quarter-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There is also a small chance for a larger half-point cut.

Federal Reserve officials remain cautious. They note that while layoffs stay steady, hiring is falling. This slowdown adds pressure on the Fed to cut rates even as inflation worries persist because of ongoing tariff issues.

Recent Leadership Changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

This is the first report since President Trump fired former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Her removal came after the July report showed weak job creation and big downward revisions. Trump nominated economist E.J. Antoni to lead the agency, while William Wiatrowski serves as acting commissioner for now.

Looking Ahead: Benchmark Revisions and Economic Outlook

The BLS will release its annual benchmark revisions later today. These revisions may change past numbers to give a clearer view of recent trends. Some experts, including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, expect the August payroll figure to rise after revision. In past years, early August estimates have often come in too high.

Olu Sonola at Fitch Ratings noted that four months of job losses in manufacturing stand out. Tariff issues seem to keep hiring low in many areas.

Summary

The August 2025 report shows a clear slow down in hiring. Job gains fall short of forecasts, and unemployment rises. Health care shows gains while manufacturing shows losses. The signs point to a slower job pace. Many expect that the Fed will cut rates to help keep the economy growing.

For continuing coverage and updates on economic indicators, Federal Reserve decisions, and market impacts, stay tuned to CNBC.

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Trump & Japan Seal Trade Agreement: 15% Tariffs and $550 Billion Investment Unveiled

U.S. and Japan Finalize Trade Deal Featuring 15% Tariffs on Japanese Imports

September 4, 2025 — The United States and Japan have reached an agreement that starts a new economic era. U.S. President Donald Trump signed the order on Thursday to enforce the deal. The plan sets a clear 15% tax on nearly all products from Japan, including cars.

Key Elements of the Trade Deal

The deal came in July after long talks. Hard work on details fixed small issues. The plan has several parts:

  • Tokyo’s Commitment to Invest: Japan will send $550 billion to projects picked by the U.S. government. This promise shows a deeper side of shared investment.
  • Agricultural Purchases: Japan will buy more U.S. crops such as corn, soybeans, and rice. The plan pushes a 75% rise in rice imports. Japan also will take on $8 billion worth of other U.S. crop items.
  • Commercial Aircraft and Defense Equipment: Japan will take U.S. commercial planes. The order for 100 Boeing jets gives a boost to the air trade.
  • Market Access Improvements: The new deal clears new ways in fields like manufacturing, plane-building, farming, and cars. This change should open more paths for U.S. companies.
  • Sector-Specific Tariffs: Besides the main 15% tax, Japan will pay extra on cars, car parts, aerospace goods, common drugs, and natural resources.

The order makes sure no extra taxes fall on Japanese products beyond the agreed sums. Tax relief for cars starts seven days after the order. These taxes apply to products that entered the U.S. from August 7, 2025. ### Economic Implications and Industry Impact

This tax rule is part of President Trump’s wider global campaign on tariffs. It has upset supply lines, especially in Japan’s key car sector.

  • Toyota’s Warning: Toyota says it will lose nearly $10 billion. The extra cost cuts its profit forecast by 16%.
  • U.S. Automotive Rivals: Ford and General Motors expect losses too. Ford faces a $3 billion loss while General Motors may lose up to $5 billion.

Political Ramifications in Japan

The deal comes as Japan faces more political strain. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba feels pressure after the July vote by his party. The Liberal Democratic Party lost ground because of:

• Limited plans to control rising prices
• Remains of past political faults
• Low interest among young voters

Some insiders want a change of leader. Analysts at Eurasia Group see a 60% chance that Ishiba will lose the vote on Monday. The vote may force him to step down because of growing party dissent.

Next Steps and Diplomatic Engagements

Japan’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, recently went to Washington. He carried an invite from Prime Minister Ishiba for President Trump to visit Japan. This move shows that talks will keep going, even with a tough deal in place.

This trade deal marks a big shift in U.S.-Japan economic ties. It mixes a set tax with moves on investment and market change. As the plan takes effect, its effects will shape trade and politics in both lands.

For more news on this story and other market updates, stay tuned.

Reported by Anniek Bao, CNBC

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