The Missing Jobs Report: Insights on the Economy Amid Government Shutdown

Government Shutdown Halts Key Jobs Report: What September’s Labor Market Would Have Revealed

On Friday, October 2, 2025, the expected Bureau of Labor Statistics report did not come out. The government shutdown in Washington, D.C. stopped the report. Investors, policymakers, and economists did not get new data on the U.S. labor market. This gap made many ask about how September’s employment behaved. Other data and market clues show a labor market that is steady yet mixed as it adjusts after the pandemic.

What the Missing Jobs Report Would Have Said

Before the shutdown, Dow Jones consensus forecasts set an increase of roughly 51,000 jobs. They also set the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%. These numbers spoke of modest labor market growth. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said the labor market stayed “pretty stable” during a CNBC talk after the shutdown. To fill the gap, the Chicago Fed built a simple dashboard. It tracks hiring and layoff rates and gives a new view of employment trends after heavy criticism of the old data.

Indicators Point to An Anemic but Steady Labor Market

Even without the government number, private and state data give clues:

Job postings on sites like Indeed dropped by about 8.9% compared to last year. This drop shows softer worker demand.
ADP’s private payroll report showed 32,000 fewer jobs in September and 3,000 fewer in August. This drop marks a slower pace in hiring.
State data on initial jobless claims suggest about 224,000 claims nationwide. The number is a bit high, but it stays close to long-term trends.

Employers seem to be careful with layoffs. They recall the hard work needed to rehire during the COVID-19 times. The labor market looks like this:

Job growth stayed small,
Fewer positions were open,
New workers, especially young ones and fresh graduates, search longer for jobs.

Uneven Recovery Across Sectors

Not every sector gained equally:

Healthcare led most job growth and job postings. The need for nurses and caregivers stayed high.
In contrast, work in software development did not grow as much, and the job view splits.
Other areas like business services and leisure show mixed signs.

Indeed’s senior economist Cory Stahle said that the split shows work chances focus on certain fields.

Broader Economic Signals and Small Business Outlook

Other signs come from consumer spending. For example:

Bank of America noted a 2.2% increase in credit and debit card use in late September. This uptick hints at strong consumer buying, even as jobs grow slowly.
Fiserv’s small business index recorded a 2.3% rise in sales and transactions for the year, a small but steady gain.

At the same time, small businesses feel mixed moods. The National Federation of Independent Business chief economist Bill Dunkelberg saw a big gap between available jobs and filled positions. Many job spots stayed open despite plans to hire more.

The Bottom Line

The shutdown stopped the release of the key report. Yet, many data points show that the U.S. job scene in September 2025 appears as follows:

It stays steady but moves slowly.
Some sectors, like healthcare, do well while others lag.
New workers face challenges in getting started.
Employers work with caution in hiring new staff.

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