September Jobs Report to Be Released Thursday: What to Expect
The government shutdown stopped the release of labor market data for a long stretch. Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will put out the September nonfarm payrolls report this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report ends a two-month break in key job numbers that left investors, economists, and policymakers with few official figures.
What the September Report May Reveal
The report will likely show a gain of about 50,000 jobs in both public and private work. This number is higher than the 22,000 jobs announced in August. The data shows some market growth but still hints at overall weakness.
Other estimates based on Dow Jones consensus include:
- An unemployment rate of 4.3%,
- Average hourly earnings that go up by 0.3% for the month,
- A 3.7% boost in average earnings over the year—all close to August’s trends.
Context and Limits in the Data
Since the data belongs to September, it does not give a full current view for policymaking. Fed Chair Jerome Powell compared the policy setting to “driving in the fog.” He warned that interest rate decisions should not be made too quickly when all the numbers are not in yet.
Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, said, "Both the September report and the changes to July and August data might show a slightly better outlook than many think, but not by much. The job numbers are steady, just like the wider economy."
Impact of the Government Shutdown on Data Releases
The shutdown forced changes in the BLS schedule. The changes are:
- No separate October jobs report; October data will come with November’s report, now delayed until December 16,
- No unemployment rate for October because household data was not fully collected,
- The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September and October will appear together on December 9. This delay means a clear look at the job situation may not come until early February 2026, according to Brusuelas.
Alternative Data and the Fed’s View
When official information was halted, economists turned to private data like:
- ADP’s tracking of private payrolls,
- Layoff figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas,
- Other job indicators.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke recently. He said there is enough available data to guide decisions. He even mentioned that a rate cut might be in store come December.
Predictions and Revisions
Goldman Sachs analysts are more upbeat. They project an 80,000 job rise in September. However, they expect that October will see a drop of 50,000 jobs as a federal program linked to layoffs from the Department of Government Efficiency comes to an end.
The report will also update July and August payrolls data—numbers that may show stronger job gains than first recorded.
In summary, Thursday’s September jobs report brings long-awaited official numbers after many weeks without them. Because the data is from a past month and has its limits, the report may only give a partial view of the job market. Investors, economists, and policymakers will need to wait patiently as they work through a time of ongoing uncertainty.
Stay tuned to CNBC for live coverage and detailed analysis when the September jobs report is out.
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